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View Full Version : remember the days when we used to guess how many banks would fail that Friday?




TER
12-04-2008, 09:10 PM
thanks to Paulson and Helicopter Ben, we might never have to worry about such things again!

HIP HIP HURRAH!!

DamianTV
12-05-2008, 01:24 AM
Yep dont have to worry about that no more.

Now all we have to worry about is if the ammt of money in our pocket will be worth the same ammt next week.:D

WRellim
12-05-2008, 03:13 AM
FDIC Friday is not done with yet.

There will be plenty more "failures" -- or perhaps it would be better phrased "mergers/takeovers" -- in the months to come.

There are a whole host of other "shoes" that have yet to drop. ARM's have yet to reset, there is a whole bundle of commercial loans (esp Commercial Real Estate) that will be failing in 2009.

Even if they succeed in getting a main-street level mortgage rate down to 4.5% that will not solve the underlying problem.

No bank will be refinancing the $500K mortgage on a CA/NV/FL house that has a current market value of $200K (or less). And no one in their right mind will sign up to repay debt consisting of anything BUT the fire-sale price (even at 2% interest).

You have to remember that near the end, a significant percentage of the "buyers" were nothing more than speculative house-flippers. People aren't going to begin even *thinking* about flipping houses again for a long time -- and banks are certainly NOT going to be lending to flippers.

Ergo the prices of housing will continue to slide (in a downward spiral that mirrors the upward one of the past 8+ years). And as prices drop, more homes & mortgages go "underwater" and there will be an increase in foreclosures (at BEST the average American is living paycheck-to-paycheck, cut the overtime or trim back the hours or worse lay them off for a few months, and they'll go under, no matter if gasoline falls to even $1.00 a gallon).

And as the "consumer" economy winds down as well, a LOT of commercial loans and the "build-out" of all those shopping centers and strip malls will come crashing down as well (seriously, how much business will that storefront "Custom Window Shades NOW" or the franchised "Toilet, Tub & Tomorrow" actually manage to do during a recession?)

Much more "fun" is yet to come.