Some Meetup math and predictions.

[CasualApathy]

Hi everyone.

Just for fun, I decided to take a look at the increase in Meetup-members after the recent debate over a 48 hour time period;


7/9 11:30

Meetup; 41,606 Members

9/9 11:38

Meetup: 42,440 Members (+1,9%)

So, we have an increase of 1,9% in two days, not bad!
However, wouldn't it be fun to see how much the meetups will grow if this trend continues?
I've done the math for the next two weeks.

Projected increase in 48 hours:

43.246

Another 48 hours:

44.068

Another 48 hours:

44.905

Another 48 hours:

45.758

Another 48 hours:

46.627

Another 48 hours:

47.513

Another 48 hours:

48.416

That is roughly 6.000 new meetup-members in two weeks.

So now the question is, will we get more or less then that?

[TheEvilDetector]

He will probably get more. Your post got me thinking about the meetup numbers and its longer term implications.

Today being September 9th 2007 and with 42440 members in meetups,
let us assume 400 growth per day until the following dates (which is conservative).

First Primary (January 5th 2008):
118 days, extra 47200 members. Total members = 89640

Super Duper Tuesday (February 5th 2008):
149 days, extra 59600 members. Total members = 102040

Republican National Convention (September 1st 2008):
358 days, extra 143200 members. Total members = 185640

Election Day (November 4th 2008):
422 days, extra 168800 members. Total members = 211240

Inauguration Day (January 20th 2009):
499 days, extra 199600 members. Total members = 242040

So, even if Ron Paul doesn't get the nomination he will have at minimum 185 thousand people working the streets to spread his popularity once the nominees are decided and this is a conservative number.

The interesting point is, this large number of people is more than enough to launch a new party and get it into mainstream US politics by continuing with the same passion.

--
Just for fun lets assume non linear growth of 1% per day:
(this is completely unrealistic btw)

In this scenario we have the following:

First Primary (January 5th 2008):
118 days. Total members = 137309

Super Duper Tuesday (February 5th 2008):
149 days. Total members = 186922

Republican National Convention (September 1st 2008):
358 days. Total members = 1495640

Election Day (November 4th 2008):
422 days. Total members = 2827451

Inauguration Day (January 20th 2009):
499 days. Total members = 6083323

--

There is a page that deals with this also http://ronpaul4president.org/RP_stats.html

"Ron Paul Meetup Group Growth Record

Average growth per day:358.5
Projected Meetup size by January 28, 2008 (Florida Primary):90483
Projected Meetup size by November 4th 28, 2008 (General election):193740"


Date Count Delta
Mon Aug 20 02:26:02 2007 35215 306
Tue Aug 21 02:26:02 2007 35489 274
Wed Aug 22 02:26:03 2007 35871 382
Thu Aug 23 02:26:02 2007 36310 439
Fri Aug 24 02:26:02 2007 36735 425
Sat Aug 25 08:19:49 2007 37056 321
Sun Aug 26 02:26:02 2007 37280 224
Mon Aug 27 02:26:02 2007 37521 241
Tue Aug 28 02:26:02 2007 37857 336
Wed Aug 29 02:26:02 2007 38184 327
Thu Aug 30 02:26:02 2007 38678 494
Fri Aug 31 02:26:02 2007 39041 363
Sat Sep 01 02:26:02 2007 39393 352
Sun Sep 02 02:26:02 2007 39545 152
Mon Sep 03 02:26:03 2007 39874 329
Tue Sep 04 02:26:02 2007 40164 290
Wed Sep 05 02:26:02 2007 40270 106
Thu Sep 06 02:26:01 2007 40843 573
Fri Sep 07 02:26:01 2007 41606 763
Sat Sep 08 02:26:02 2007 42124 518
Sun Sep 09 02:26:01 2007 42440 316


http://ronpaul4president.org/RP_stats.png