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View Full Version : U.S. recession will last 14 months: Fed survey



ItsTime
11-17-2008, 09:27 AM
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4AG4KV20081117


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Private-sector economists believe the U.S. economy fell into recession last spring and now expect a sharp contraction in the fourth quarter of this year after slashing their forecasts for gross domestic product, a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey said on Monday.

The bank's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters also predicted non-farm payrolls would shrink by an average 222,400 per month during the last quarter of the year, nearly five times the pace of monthly job losses forecast when the previous survey was taken in August. The previous estimate was for 45,400 jobs lost per month in the quarter.

The forecasters survey also said the U.S. economy entered recession April and that the downturn would last for 14 months.


So does that mean we are half way through it? That is if you believe what the fed is saying.
lodge939
11-17-2008, 09:40 AM
You can't forecast something like this, it's unprecedented
sevin
11-17-2008, 10:00 AM
A while back they were saying, "It's okay, it's not a recession." Then later they said, "Well, okay, it's a recession, but it won't last that long." Now they say, "Well, it will only last 14 months." What's tomorrow? Will they say, "Yes, it's a depression, but it will only be 2 years." :(
ItsTime
11-17-2008, 10:01 AM
A while back they were saying, "It's okay, it's not a recession." Then later they said, "Well, okay, it's a recession, but it won't last that long." Now they say, "Well, it will only last 14 months." What's tomorrow? Will they say, "Yes, it's a depression, but it will only be 2 years." :(

Yeah they did the same thing before the great depression. It is worrying
Agent CSL
11-17-2008, 10:21 AM
Oh lol. The denial is downright disturbing.

Cmon gov, let it fall, and let it rise. Stop putting toothpicks underneath it. :(
danberkeley
11-17-2008, 11:39 AM
There is no way of knowing since the government will probably make the situation worse, just like in the 1930s.
Truth Warrior
11-17-2008, 11:43 AM
What was the Fed original duration prediction of THEIR "Great Depression" of the 30's? :p :rolleyes:
ItsTime
11-17-2008, 02:34 PM
What was the Fed original duration prediction of THEIR "Great Depression" of the 30's? :p :rolleyes:

I dont know off hand.
fr33domfightr
11-17-2008, 02:49 PM
The stock markets probably hasn't crashed like in 1929 because now we have all these 401(k) plans. Plan admins have been telling people for years, "you're in for the long haul, don't sell." People have listened and there they sit, losing thousands or millions on paper, while other investors or day traders got the hell out. I believe had it not been for the 401(k)s, we would have had a severe stock market crash, at least equal to 1929.


FF
socialize_me
11-17-2008, 03:14 PM
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4AG4KV20081117



So does that mean we are half way through it? That is if you believe what the fed is saying.

So does that mean you believe what the fed is saying? That is if you are halfway through it.
socialize_me
11-17-2008, 03:14 PM
I dont know off hand.

Hand off?? No I don't.
boethius27
11-17-2008, 03:27 PM
silly fed.
t0rnado
11-17-2008, 03:50 PM
The FED also said the inflation rate was 2% which was also a lie.