PDA

View Full Version : Why Third Parties Lose (And How They Can Win)




escapinggreatly
11-13-2008, 12:09 AM
What do you do if your party didn't win one seat in Congress, your Presidential nominee didn't come close to winning a single state, and most of the country either has no idea who you are or thinks that you actually nominated the guy with the blimp?

You declare "Mission Accomplished," of course:

"This is just the beginning," says Bob Barr, the 2008 presidential nominee of the Libertarian Party.

He couldn’t be more right.

The 2008 election was yet another record-breaking year for the Libertarian Party. Not only did two candidates break the million-vote mark, it was also the first time in the Party’s history that our presidential vote total went up in three consecutive presidential elections.

Sorry, I'm not buying it. The libertarian movement (notice the small "L") received the biggest shot in the arm in its history during primary season, when Ron Paul stirred up previously-unheard-of enthusiasm (and money) for liberty-based principles. You sure as hell can't tell me that it was Paul's on-camera charisma, youthful vigor, or stunning good looks that rallied people to his cause. Yet the official Libertarian Presidential campaign didn't come close to matching Paul's donations or excitement. Why?

Well, you could fall back on the tired old line about Republican and Democratic campaigns having infinitely more money with which to buy advertising - which is true. You could give the usual spin about uphill battles for ballot access, for debate invitations, and for equal corporate campaign perks - again, true. You could say that Obama swept the nation into such a hopeful, feel-good American story that outsiders didn't have much of a market - and I'd concede the point. You could even make the more specific excuse that Bob Barr was an unpopular choice among the Libertarian base - entirely accurate.

But none of those things can adequately explain why a man advocating small government, reduced spending, gun rights, and personal freedoms fared so very poorly in the last year of a Republican administration that had clearly abandoned any pretense of fiscal conservatism, had invaded the privacy of homes, had expanded the powers of the federal government in every area from education to e-mails, had happily introduced the largest deficits in American history, and had nominated John McCain, a man who openly touted his record of giving the GOP a giant middle finger. Numerous polls show that roughly 1/3 of the country describes itself as "conservative," and despite the much-maligned apathy of American citizens, a sizable chunk of that third does, in fact, know what conservative principles actually are. Yet almost all of them voted for a man who would be very hard-pressed to find a single way in which he was the more conservative candidate than Barr. What drove the conservative masses away from the more conservative choice? What drove many of those aforementioned Ron Paul supporters away from the party that actually did nominate Paul in 1988?

The explanation goes beyond any of the traditional woes of third-party and independent nominees, who have eternally complained about the various advantages enjoyed by the two dominant parties. Their complaints are not incorrect - they simply miss the forest for the trees. The true obstacle to the success of those who shun the two-party structure isn't money. It isn't ballot access. It isn't the lack of a political machine. It isn't even their terrible choice of party colors. (Really, Libertarians, yellow and purple?)

Read the rest here. (http://www.meltingpotproject.com/mpp/why-third-parties-lose-and-how-they-can-win.html)

Elwar
11-13-2008, 07:26 AM
Ok, I've argued for the Libertarian Party for years in online forums before there were these fancy online forums in the days of the BBS.

I fought hard for the LP, hoping, wishing that just once we could get in the debates and wow the world.

The biggest challenge to my support to the LP was a valid one. In a winner takes all system, nothing but a two party system will ever work. I hate that it's true but I have seen nothing that would make it not so.

If there were 3, 4 or even 5 parties that were all viable to win it would merely require a merger of a few parties to win every time. Let's say the Dems, Reps, Libs and Greens all somehow got a 25% turnout...each fighting hard for that extra 1% to win the race. Why work so hard when the Dems could just tell the Greens...hey, we both don't want a Rep or Lib to win...so let's team up and take 50% of the vote.

I hate that this is the case, there are some countries where libertarians win where they have distributed voting where if 10% goes to the Libertarian Party they get 10% of the seats in Congress...but that's not the case in the US.

I fought this until I was blue in the face mainly because I could not see myself as a Democrat or a Republican.

After fighting for Ron Paul I can feel comfortable calling myself a Ron Paul Republican. The LP destroyed itself when it had its convention on the left coast in Oregon and they re-wrote the party principles.

I will always vote for Libertarian candidates unless there is a Ron Paul Republican I can vote for.

Truth Warrior
11-13-2008, 07:30 AM
Why Third Parties Lose (And How They Can Win)

Not enough votes ( And more votes )

escapinggreatly
11-13-2008, 08:31 AM
Ok, I've argued for the Libertarian Party for years in online forums before there were these fancy online forums in the days of the BBS.

I fought hard for the LP, hoping, wishing that just once we could get in the debates and wow the world.

The biggest challenge to my support to the LP was a valid one. In a winner takes all system, nothing but a two party system will ever work. I hate that it's true but I have seen nothing that would make it not so.

If there were 3, 4 or even 5 parties that were all viable to win it would merely require a merger of a few parties to win every time. Let's say the Dems, Reps, Libs and Greens all somehow got a 25% turnout...each fighting hard for that extra 1% to win the race. Why work so hard when the Dems could just tell the Greens...hey, we both don't want a Rep or Lib to win...so let's team up and take 50% of the vote.

I hate that this is the case, there are some countries where libertarians win where they have distributed voting where if 10% goes to the Libertarian Party they get 10% of the seats in Congress...but that's not the case in the US.

I fought this until I was blue in the face mainly because I could not see myself as a Democrat or a Republican.

After fighting for Ron Paul I can feel comfortable calling myself a Ron Paul Republican. The LP destroyed itself when it had its convention on the left coast in Oregon and they re-wrote the party principles.

I will always vote for Libertarian candidates unless there is a Ron Paul Republican I can vote for.

Exactly. That's a big part of the article.

Pennsylvania
11-13-2008, 08:56 AM
You sure as hell can't tell me that it was Paul's [...] stunning good looks that rallied people to his cause.

Screw that. Ladies love the man.

LibertyEagle
11-13-2008, 09:06 AM
Screw that. Ladies love the man.

+1 :)

What's not to like?

http://ronpaulforcongress.com/assets/images/vet2.jpg

nate895
11-13-2008, 10:51 AM
You know, he could have just linked to Duverger's Law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law) on Wikipedia.

tggroo7
11-13-2008, 11:55 AM
So how do we bring about that reform? What do we have to do to change the system?

heavenlyboy34
11-13-2008, 12:10 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law

Counterexamples :)

While there are indeed many SMDP systems with two parties, there are significant counterexamples:

* India, the world's largest democracy, has multiple regional parties.
* Scotland has had until recently SMDP and similar systems, but has seen the development of several significant competing political parties.
* In the United Kingdom, the Liberal party/Alliance/Liberal Democrats have, since the February 1974 General Election, usually obtained between 15% and 25% of the vote forming a "third party" and creating a so-called two-and-a-half-party system.
* In Canada, the New Democratic Party and its predecessor the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation have had a constant presence in Parliament since the CCF's first election in 1935. At least four, and sometimes five, political parties have been represented in the Canadian parliament at any given time since the 1993 election. In addition, the now-defunct Social Credit Party of Canada also maintained itself in Parliament nearly consistently from 1935 to 1979, often resulting in Parliaments with four national parties represented.

Duverger himself did not regard his principle as absolute: instead he suggested that SMDP would act to delay the emergence of a new political force, and would accelerate the elimination of a weakening force — PR would have the opposite effect.

Additionally, William H. Riker noted that strong regional parties can distort matters, leading to more than two parties receiving seats in the national legislature, even if there are only two parties competitive in any single district. He pointed to Canada's regional politics, as well as the U.S. presidential election of 1860, as examples of often temporary regional instability that occurs from time-to-time in otherwise stable two-party systems (Riker, 1982).

nate895
11-13-2008, 03:13 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law

Counterexamples :)

While there are indeed many SMDP systems with two parties, there are significant counterexamples:

* India, the world's largest democracy, has multiple regional parties.
* Scotland has had until recently SMDP and similar systems, but has seen the development of several significant competing political parties.
* In the United Kingdom, the Liberal party/Alliance/Liberal Democrats have, since the February 1974 General Election, usually obtained between 15% and 25% of the vote forming a "third party" and creating a so-called two-and-a-half-party system.
* In Canada, the New Democratic Party and its predecessor the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation have had a constant presence in Parliament since the CCF's first election in 1935. At least four, and sometimes five, political parties have been represented in the Canadian parliament at any given time since the 1993 election. In addition, the now-defunct Social Credit Party of Canada also maintained itself in Parliament nearly consistently from 1935 to 1979, often resulting in Parliaments with four national parties represented.

Duverger himself did not regard his principle as absolute: instead he suggested that SMDP would act to delay the emergence of a new political force, and would accelerate the elimination of a weakening force — PR would have the opposite effect.

Additionally, William H. Riker noted that strong regional parties can distort matters, leading to more than two parties receiving seats in the national legislature, even if there are only two parties competitive in any single district. He pointed to Canada's regional politics, as well as the U.S. presidential election of 1860, as examples of often temporary regional instability that occurs from time-to-time in otherwise stable two-party systems (Riker, 1982).

Regional parties (especially strong secessionist/separatist parties) will throw off Duverger's Law. Another factor to consider in those countries is that Ridings in Canada and Constituencies in England are extremely small, so that leads to a stronger base amongst minor parties. In the UK, there is about 85,000 people in a Constituency, which means it is much easier to get a winning percentage for liberal third parties to win in urban areas, and conservatives to win in rural. Ridings in Canada have about 100,000 people, and are very heavily concentrated in the Eastern regions. The US has about 700K people per CD.

Peace&Freedom
11-13-2008, 04:07 PM
The main reason third parties lose is the Bilderburg/CFR/TLC masters controlling the two-party puppet show shuts them out from comparable mainstream access, period. If there was an election Fairness Doctrine law requiring equal media time and debates participation for all Presdential candidates on the ballot in most states, the lamest LP and CP candidate would clean up over most Democrats or Republicans. But the puppetmasters are certainly not going to let that kind of fairness happen.