nist7
09-08-2007, 07:22 PM
I know this is a long read but it is very satisfying/interesting/insightful.
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/archive/2007/09/08/can-google-trends-predict-the-2008-election.aspx
Just a little on me. I am a Republican with Libertarian tendencies. I have to admit, I did watch the Fox News channel‘s so-called Presidential Debate. They set up questions rigged like a carnival game (No offence to carnival operators) for Ron Paul. The most annoying was the laugh track in the background which showed a lack respect and dignity for the entire process. So I wanted to find a better way of finding out what the people wanted than having it spoon fed to me like a baby.
I turned to Google, more specifically Google Trends to run down some data for me view some data and analyze a hypothesis: “Can Google Predict An Election”
Background on Google Trends: From the site “…analyzes a portion of Google web searches to compute how many searches have been done for the terms you enter, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. We then show you a graph with the results -- our search-volume graph -- plotted on a linear scale.” Easy enough… So looking at a sample
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image002_4.jpg
As you can see searching apples and oranges in the US, the searches are seasonal. It peaks in the fall but dies off in early winter. By looking at the graph you can also see that people in Ohio search for apples more than people in Oregon. In addition, even with the spike if news articles on January 17,2007 telling people of the possible tripling of the price of oranges, the change in the number of search results of oranges were insignificant and fell in line with the seasonal trend. One could conclude that more people are interested in more information about apples than oranges and may likely appeal to apples more than oranges.
Let’s take a look at the 2004 Democratic Primaries.
Links:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=Howard+dean%2C+John+Kerry%2C+Wesley+clark %2C++Joseph+Lieberman&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2004-1&sort=1
http://www.google.com/trends?q=Howard+dean%2C+John+Kerry%2C+Wesley+clark %2C++Joseph+Lieberman&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2004-2&sort=1
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image004_4.jpg
As shown in the graphs above, the volume of news referenced were weighted towards Howard Dean until the January 27, 2004 New Hampshire Primary. After that, The news volume flip-flopped towards John Kerry.
Now to the 2004 Election:
Links:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=+John+Kerry%2CGeorge+Bush%2C&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2004-10&sort=0
http://www.google.com/trends?q=+John+Kerry%2CGeorge+Bush%2C&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2004-11&sort=0
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image010_4.jpg
Leading up to the election, the media outlets were pumping up John Kerry with news articles as shown in the News Reference Volume graph. That lined up with the American people were searching for. But an odd thing happened on Election Day, November 2, 2004. The media volume of news articles jumped for John Kerry but the searches actually came down for him. What the hell. Even after the election, the volume of searches was up for Bush even though the volume of Kerry news related stories were more than Bush’s. Uneventfully, Google doesn’t allow Google Trends to go any deeper than a month at a time. It would be interesting to see what it shows for volume of searches over the course of the day by candidate and State. Without more data from that day, it would be hard to conclude anything from this but something changed that changed the interest of the people to sway towards GWB and possibly win the election.
Now let’s take a look at the 2008 Election. I tried to do this search a bunch of different ways but this one I found to be the most logical:
Link: http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+hillary+clinton%2C+barack+oba ma%2C+Rudy+Giuliani%2CMitt+Romney+&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2007&sort=0
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image016_4.jpg
Some things really jump out at you:
· Mitt Romney dominating in Utah. No brainer
· If you flip the rank by candidate in the bottom field, Hillary Clinton owns Rudy Giuliani in New York State and City
The number of news articles for Ron Paul is disproportionate to the number of people searching for information on Ron Paul
· From a general populous point of view, Ron Paul is dominating the rest of the “Tier 1” Candidates
· From an Electoral Collage standpoint, Ron Paul is inching in early on. Yes.. Really.
California with 55 Electoral Votes:
Link:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+hillary+clinton%2C+barack+oba ma%2C+Rudy+Giuliani%2CMitt+Romney+&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=usa.ca&date=2007&sort=0
***note: light blue represents "ron paul"
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image018_4.jpg
Not even close
Florida with 27 Electoral Votes:
Link: http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+hillary+clinton%2C+barack+oba ma%2C+Rudy+Giuliani%2CMitt+Romney+&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=usa.fl&date=2007&sort=0
***note: light blue represents "ron paul"
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image020_4.jpg
Same results. The same results applied in Texas (34) Ohio (20), New Jersey (15), Georgia (15), North Carolina (15), and in other states across the map. There were some states I couldn’t get results for because the numbers were too small but it wouldn’t surprise me if they were the same as well.
And Lastly after the Republican Debate in New Hampshire:
Link: http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+hillary+clinton%2C+barack+oba ma%2C+Rudy+Giuliani%2CMitt+Romney+&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2007-9&sort=0
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image022%5B2%5D_1.jpg
Across the board people wanted to know more information about Ron Paul. And Fox news wonders why he got 33% of the Text in Vote. With that I can only Run Ron Run.
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/archive/2007/09/08/can-google-trends-predict-the-2008-election.aspx
Just a little on me. I am a Republican with Libertarian tendencies. I have to admit, I did watch the Fox News channel‘s so-called Presidential Debate. They set up questions rigged like a carnival game (No offence to carnival operators) for Ron Paul. The most annoying was the laugh track in the background which showed a lack respect and dignity for the entire process. So I wanted to find a better way of finding out what the people wanted than having it spoon fed to me like a baby.
I turned to Google, more specifically Google Trends to run down some data for me view some data and analyze a hypothesis: “Can Google Predict An Election”
Background on Google Trends: From the site “…analyzes a portion of Google web searches to compute how many searches have been done for the terms you enter, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. We then show you a graph with the results -- our search-volume graph -- plotted on a linear scale.” Easy enough… So looking at a sample
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image002_4.jpg
As you can see searching apples and oranges in the US, the searches are seasonal. It peaks in the fall but dies off in early winter. By looking at the graph you can also see that people in Ohio search for apples more than people in Oregon. In addition, even with the spike if news articles on January 17,2007 telling people of the possible tripling of the price of oranges, the change in the number of search results of oranges were insignificant and fell in line with the seasonal trend. One could conclude that more people are interested in more information about apples than oranges and may likely appeal to apples more than oranges.
Let’s take a look at the 2004 Democratic Primaries.
Links:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=Howard+dean%2C+John+Kerry%2C+Wesley+clark %2C++Joseph+Lieberman&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2004-1&sort=1
http://www.google.com/trends?q=Howard+dean%2C+John+Kerry%2C+Wesley+clark %2C++Joseph+Lieberman&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2004-2&sort=1
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image004_4.jpg
As shown in the graphs above, the volume of news referenced were weighted towards Howard Dean until the January 27, 2004 New Hampshire Primary. After that, The news volume flip-flopped towards John Kerry.
Now to the 2004 Election:
Links:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=+John+Kerry%2CGeorge+Bush%2C&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2004-10&sort=0
http://www.google.com/trends?q=+John+Kerry%2CGeorge+Bush%2C&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2004-11&sort=0
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image010_4.jpg
Leading up to the election, the media outlets were pumping up John Kerry with news articles as shown in the News Reference Volume graph. That lined up with the American people were searching for. But an odd thing happened on Election Day, November 2, 2004. The media volume of news articles jumped for John Kerry but the searches actually came down for him. What the hell. Even after the election, the volume of searches was up for Bush even though the volume of Kerry news related stories were more than Bush’s. Uneventfully, Google doesn’t allow Google Trends to go any deeper than a month at a time. It would be interesting to see what it shows for volume of searches over the course of the day by candidate and State. Without more data from that day, it would be hard to conclude anything from this but something changed that changed the interest of the people to sway towards GWB and possibly win the election.
Now let’s take a look at the 2008 Election. I tried to do this search a bunch of different ways but this one I found to be the most logical:
Link: http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+hillary+clinton%2C+barack+oba ma%2C+Rudy+Giuliani%2CMitt+Romney+&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2007&sort=0
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image016_4.jpg
Some things really jump out at you:
· Mitt Romney dominating in Utah. No brainer
· If you flip the rank by candidate in the bottom field, Hillary Clinton owns Rudy Giuliani in New York State and City
The number of news articles for Ron Paul is disproportionate to the number of people searching for information on Ron Paul
· From a general populous point of view, Ron Paul is dominating the rest of the “Tier 1” Candidates
· From an Electoral Collage standpoint, Ron Paul is inching in early on. Yes.. Really.
California with 55 Electoral Votes:
Link:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+hillary+clinton%2C+barack+oba ma%2C+Rudy+Giuliani%2CMitt+Romney+&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=usa.ca&date=2007&sort=0
***note: light blue represents "ron paul"
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image018_4.jpg
Not even close
Florida with 27 Electoral Votes:
Link: http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+hillary+clinton%2C+barack+oba ma%2C+Rudy+Giuliani%2CMitt+Romney+&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=usa.fl&date=2007&sort=0
***note: light blue represents "ron paul"
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image020_4.jpg
Same results. The same results applied in Texas (34) Ohio (20), New Jersey (15), Georgia (15), North Carolina (15), and in other states across the map. There were some states I couldn’t get results for because the numbers were too small but it wouldn’t surprise me if they were the same as well.
And Lastly after the Republican Debate in New Hampshire:
Link: http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+hillary+clinton%2C+barack+oba ma%2C+Rudy+Giuliani%2CMitt+Romney+&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2007-9&sort=0
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image022%5B2%5D_1.jpg
Across the board people wanted to know more information about Ron Paul. And Fox news wonders why he got 33% of the Text in Vote. With that I can only Run Ron Run.