Can Google Trends Predict the 2008 Election?

[nist7]

I know this is a long read but it is very satisfying/interesting/insightful.

http://njection.com/blogs/blog/archive/2007/09/08/can-google-trends-predict-the-2008-election.aspx


Just a little on me. I am a Republican with Libertarian tendencies. I have to admit, I did watch the Fox News channel‘s so-called Presidential Debate. They set up questions rigged like a carnival game (No offence to carnival operators) for Ron Paul. The most annoying was the laugh track in the background which showed a lack respect and dignity for the entire process. So I wanted to find a better way of finding out what the people wanted than having it spoon fed to me like a baby.

I turned to Google, more specifically Google Trends to run down some data for me view some data and analyze a hypothesis: “Can Google Predict An Election”

Background on Google Trends: From the site “…analyzes a portion of Google web searches to compute how many searches have been done for the terms you enter, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. We then show you a graph with the results -- our search-volume graph -- plotted on a linear scale.” Easy enough… So looking at a sample

http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image002_4.jpg

As you can see searching apples and oranges in the US, the searches are seasonal. It peaks in the fall but dies off in early winter. By looking at the graph you can also see that people in Ohio search for apples more than people in Oregon. In addition, even with the spike if news articles on January 17,2007 telling people of the possible tripling of the price of oranges, the change in the number of search results of oranges were insignificant and fell in line with the seasonal trend. One could conclude that more people are interested in more information about apples than oranges and may likely appeal to apples more than oranges.














Let’s take a look at the 2004 Democratic Primaries.

Links:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=Howard+dean%2C+John+Kerry%2C+Wesley+clark %2C++Joseph+Lieberman&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2004-1&sort=1

http://www.google.com/trends?q=Howard+dean%2C+John+Kerry%2C+Wesley+clark %2C++Joseph+Lieberman&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2004-2&sort=1

http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image004_4.jpg

As shown in the graphs above, the volume of news referenced were weighted towards Howard Dean until the January 27, 2004 New Hampshire Primary. After that, The news volume flip-flopped towards John Kerry.















Now to the 2004 Election:

Links:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=+John+Kerry%2CGeorge+Bush%2C&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2004-10&sort=0

http://www.google.com/trends?q=+John+Kerry%2CGeorge+Bush%2C&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2004-11&sort=0


http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image010_4.jpg

Leading up to the election, the media outlets were pumping up John Kerry with news articles as shown in the News Reference Volume graph. That lined up with the American people were searching for. But an odd thing happened on Election Day, November 2, 2004. The media volume of news articles jumped for John Kerry but the searches actually came down for him. What the hell. Even after the election, the volume of searches was up for Bush even though the volume of Kerry news related stories were more than Bush’s. Uneventfully, Google doesn’t allow Google Trends to go any deeper than a month at a time. It would be interesting to see what it shows for volume of searches over the course of the day by candidate and State. Without more data from that day, it would be hard to conclude anything from this but something changed that changed the interest of the people to sway towards GWB and possibly win the election.















Now let’s take a look at the 2008 Election. I tried to do this search a bunch of different ways but this one I found to be the most logical:

Link: http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+hillary+clinton%2C+barack+oba ma%2C+Rudy+Giuliani%2CMitt+Romney+&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2007&sort=0

http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image016_4.jpg

Some things really jump out at you:

· Mitt Romney dominating in Utah. No brainer

· If you flip the rank by candidate in the bottom field, Hillary Clinton owns Rudy Giuliani in New York State and City

The number of news articles for Ron Paul is disproportionate to the number of people searching for information on Ron Paul

· From a general populous point of view, Ron Paul is dominating the rest of the “Tier 1” Candidates

· From an Electoral Collage standpoint, Ron Paul is inching in early on. Yes.. Really.

California with 55 Electoral Votes:

Link:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+hillary+clinton%2C+barack+oba ma%2C+Rudy+Giuliani%2CMitt+Romney+&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=usa.ca&date=2007&sort=0

***note: light blue represents "ron paul"
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image018_4.jpg

Not even close



Florida with 27 Electoral Votes:

Link: http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+hillary+clinton%2C+barack+oba ma%2C+Rudy+Giuliani%2CMitt+Romney+&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=usa.fl&date=2007&sort=0

***note: light blue represents "ron paul"
http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image020_4.jpg

Same results. The same results applied in Texas (34) Ohio (20), New Jersey (15), Georgia (15), North Carolina (15), and in other states across the map. There were some states I couldn’t get results for because the numbers were too small but it wouldn’t surprise me if they were the same as well.

And Lastly after the Republican Debate in New Hampshire:

Link: http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+hillary+clinton%2C+barack+oba ma%2C+Rudy+Giuliani%2CMitt+Romney+&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2007-9&sort=0

http://njection.com/blogs/blog/WindowsLiveWriter/CanGoogleTrendsPredictthe2008Election_F054/clip_image022%5B2%5D_1.jpg

Across the board people wanted to know more information about Ron Paul. And Fox news wonders why he got 33% of the Text in Vote. With that I can only Run Ron Run.

[Scribbler de Stebbing]

Except that Ron Paul supporters are apples, and the other candidates' supporters are oranges. People on the internet are much more likely to support Ron Paul. Unfortunately, that's only 90% of the population. ROFLMAO! :D

[rainmanjam]

Thanks for the link and the bump. If you could digg me up as well... I Would appreciate it.

[nist7]

Thanks for the link and the bump. If you could digg me up as well... I Would appreciate it.


No problem bro. Dugg! :cool:

[Starks]

I'm starting to get the idea that we've saturated the Internet far more than might've been necessary...

[Richandler]

Well now we just have to maintain the highest search numbers for the next year.

[Starks]

Wow... Mormon Utah is really humping Romney's leg...

[Rivington Essex]

Great Post. I have been using that graph in fliers.


People love a winner.

[Michael Ingram]

Great article

[nist7]

Great Post. I have been using that graph in fliers.

Ron PAul
Why is he the most searched for candidate?
Then a picture of the graph....
And then some bullets on why I like him.

People love a winner.

Sweet idea.

[Richandler]

http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+fox+news&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=all&sort=0

This is why we need to support Ron Paul of Fox News this Monday. We need to call up everyone we know and tell them to watch the Factor so the high ratings will give Ron Paul more time on MSM and more respect nation wide.

[Stealth4]

OT, but out of curiousity, how do the networks get their ratings?

For Bill O'Reilly on monday how will they know if double the normal amount of people tune in?

[itsnobody]

Except that Ron Paul supporters are apples, and the other candidates' supporters are oranges. People on the internet are much more likely to support Ron Paul. Unfortunately, that's only 90% of the population. ROFLMAO! :D

Yeah and unfortunately for us, around 100% of Ron Paul supporters will vote for him the primaries, and only about 7% vote in the Iowa Caucus...unfortunately ROFLMAO ;)

[rainmanjam]

OT, but out of curiousity, how do the networks get their ratings?

For Bill O'Reilly on monday how will they know if double the normal amount of people tune in?

Neilson has what they call "People Meters" that connect to TVs. Then from there they can expand it out to everyone and est. how many people were watching.

[AdamT]

That is very encouraging information. Thank you.

[nist7]

OT, but out of curiousity, how do the networks get their ratings?

For Bill O'Reilly on monday how will they know if double the normal amount of people tune in?

Nielsen?

Maybe Fox News has a FAQ section, lol.


Yeah and unfortunately for us, around 100% of Ron Paul supporters will vote for him the primaries, and only about 7% vote in the Iowa Caucus...unfortunately ROFLMAO ;)

Very good point. The grassroots enthusiasm for RP seems to be much greater, which would translate into higher voter turnout during the primaries.

[The Good Doctor]

Wow this is awesome! Especially that last section about the searches for Ron Paul after the last debate! Is there a way we can sticky this? Seems a very good way to keep us inspired! :D

[The Good Doctor]

Here is the Ron Paul VS Fred Thompson search info from 2007. Still looks awesome! :D

http://www.google.com/trends?q=ron+paul%2C+fred+thompson&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=2007&sort=0

[Elwar]

Can't wait to see the O'reilly bump from Monday night!

[katao]

Wow... Mormon Utah is really humping Romney's leg...

Tell me about it! Gees, getting Mormon voters to use their brains here in Utah is impossible - Romney's entire political history (until he decided to run for Pres.) is an affront to everything they believe in.

[Mitt Romneys sideburns]

If the media continues to ignore Paul, Im thinking Hillary is going to win. This graph only represents that section of the American public who does weird stuff... like get on the internet to look up politics.

problem is, 99% of Hillary supports will NEVER look her up on the internet.

99% of Paul supporters DO look him up on the internet.

That graph may very well represent almost each and every Paul supporter out there. Hillary's line, on the other hand, only represents a small fraction of the people who are going to vote for her.