Nash
09-08-2007, 06:16 PM
The other day I read an article on Lew Rockwell entitled " Disciples, Followers, and Cheerleaders". http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north301.html.
That inspired me to write my own thoughts that are a bit more specific to the Ron Paul campaign, or primary voting in general. I aim to describe the 4 types of voters in the United States and the roles that they play in the election process.
The 4 types of Voters
The Apathetic
These individuals don't care about politics, don't pay attention to the political news or current event sites. They are not registered to vote and therefore don't participate. They aren't really voters and in fact are the "anti-voter", however they do play a role as they can sometimes be converted into activists if the right kind of candidate comes along
40% of the Eligible Voting Population.
The Registered Voter
The individuals are often registered with a major party, and generally pay attention to current events but not necessarily political shows. They may make some effort to get informed about a candidate or issue but generally only do so
a mere days or weeks before an election if they even bother. They often vote based solely on the candidate's party affiliation or because a friend, family member, newscast or commerical influenced them to vote a certain way.
They often don't vote in primary elections but will frequently vote in general elections.
45% of the Eligible Voting Population.
The Good Citizen
These individuals always vote in every election because they feel it is their duty to do so, and generally pay more attention to the political landscape than the registered voter. They may attempt to educate themselves about political candidates and some may even be considered junkies or wonks
but they don't generally spend enormous amounts of time doing research. They may become familiar with a candidates positions and can participate in topical conversation about politics but sometimes aren't informed enough to engage in
serious debate, especially with an activist. They often will donate to campaigns and may even attend a fund raiser or event if motivated to do so by the activist crowd or political campaign itself but generally don't spend large portions of their money or time doing so.
12% of the Eligible Voting Population.
The Activist
These are the fanatics. They have a zealous attitude about a candidate or issue and will mobilize to spread information about that candidate or issue in every way possible. They visit message boards and straw polls, call into talk shows often, donate as much money as they can and spend their free time promoting their candidate's agenda and make an effort to tell all their friends and family and just about anybody else who will listen. They always vote, even if they are "throwing their vote away" just to get their message across. Sometimes activists are sleeper apathetics who otherwise might not be involved in politics but are triggered and then mobilized by a particular candidate or issue and then get involved as devoted followers. They attend rallies and marches and
are extremely vocal. They are usually well versed in their candidate's or causes positions and usually although not always are more informed than the good citizen.
3% of the Eligible Voting Population.
I base most of this data on primary voting patterns and it might be off give or take a %. I didn't take a real census here but I believe the numbers are pretty accurate. Based on the various poll data I believe that "Registered Voters" are the reason that Ron Paul is about 3% in the Zogby polls. He doesn't do well among this voting bloc primarily because these people don't know who he is. Fortunately this isn't all that relevant because a large majority of this group isn't going to vote in the primaries anyway.
The Good Citizen voters are the people who voted for Romney in the Iowa Straw Poll. They aren't the activist group but they seemingly come from out of nowhere and WILL vote in the primary elections. They are the most dangerous group to us because they are generally set in their views and generally go with the status quo. They are the GOP "base" and they are the group that we are going to have the hardest time infiltrating. I figure the Texas Straw Poll gives us an idea of the support from this group. Around 10-20% depending on the state we're in. This is notable to us, we need to either infiltrate this bloc or simply overcome them with numbers from the other groups.
The Activists are all about us on these boards and we dominate this voting bloc on the GOP side. We don't have the entire 3% but I think we probably have at least half of it if not more.
Finally, the most important bloc, and the group that may swing this thing into our favor are the apathetic bloc. The people who don't otherwise vote in any election and normally don't care. They are a notable influence in our support base and as activists we need to keep this number growing to join our cause.
So the breakdown is both sobering but hopeful to me. We must overcome the "Good Citizen" bloc of voters by recruiting Apathetic and Registered Voters. We have the activist bloc pretty much wrapped up here, but our numbers are small so we have to reach out and engage more potential voters as a resource.
That inspired me to write my own thoughts that are a bit more specific to the Ron Paul campaign, or primary voting in general. I aim to describe the 4 types of voters in the United States and the roles that they play in the election process.
The 4 types of Voters
The Apathetic
These individuals don't care about politics, don't pay attention to the political news or current event sites. They are not registered to vote and therefore don't participate. They aren't really voters and in fact are the "anti-voter", however they do play a role as they can sometimes be converted into activists if the right kind of candidate comes along
40% of the Eligible Voting Population.
The Registered Voter
The individuals are often registered with a major party, and generally pay attention to current events but not necessarily political shows. They may make some effort to get informed about a candidate or issue but generally only do so
a mere days or weeks before an election if they even bother. They often vote based solely on the candidate's party affiliation or because a friend, family member, newscast or commerical influenced them to vote a certain way.
They often don't vote in primary elections but will frequently vote in general elections.
45% of the Eligible Voting Population.
The Good Citizen
These individuals always vote in every election because they feel it is their duty to do so, and generally pay more attention to the political landscape than the registered voter. They may attempt to educate themselves about political candidates and some may even be considered junkies or wonks
but they don't generally spend enormous amounts of time doing research. They may become familiar with a candidates positions and can participate in topical conversation about politics but sometimes aren't informed enough to engage in
serious debate, especially with an activist. They often will donate to campaigns and may even attend a fund raiser or event if motivated to do so by the activist crowd or political campaign itself but generally don't spend large portions of their money or time doing so.
12% of the Eligible Voting Population.
The Activist
These are the fanatics. They have a zealous attitude about a candidate or issue and will mobilize to spread information about that candidate or issue in every way possible. They visit message boards and straw polls, call into talk shows often, donate as much money as they can and spend their free time promoting their candidate's agenda and make an effort to tell all their friends and family and just about anybody else who will listen. They always vote, even if they are "throwing their vote away" just to get their message across. Sometimes activists are sleeper apathetics who otherwise might not be involved in politics but are triggered and then mobilized by a particular candidate or issue and then get involved as devoted followers. They attend rallies and marches and
are extremely vocal. They are usually well versed in their candidate's or causes positions and usually although not always are more informed than the good citizen.
3% of the Eligible Voting Population.
I base most of this data on primary voting patterns and it might be off give or take a %. I didn't take a real census here but I believe the numbers are pretty accurate. Based on the various poll data I believe that "Registered Voters" are the reason that Ron Paul is about 3% in the Zogby polls. He doesn't do well among this voting bloc primarily because these people don't know who he is. Fortunately this isn't all that relevant because a large majority of this group isn't going to vote in the primaries anyway.
The Good Citizen voters are the people who voted for Romney in the Iowa Straw Poll. They aren't the activist group but they seemingly come from out of nowhere and WILL vote in the primary elections. They are the most dangerous group to us because they are generally set in their views and generally go with the status quo. They are the GOP "base" and they are the group that we are going to have the hardest time infiltrating. I figure the Texas Straw Poll gives us an idea of the support from this group. Around 10-20% depending on the state we're in. This is notable to us, we need to either infiltrate this bloc or simply overcome them with numbers from the other groups.
The Activists are all about us on these boards and we dominate this voting bloc on the GOP side. We don't have the entire 3% but I think we probably have at least half of it if not more.
Finally, the most important bloc, and the group that may swing this thing into our favor are the apathetic bloc. The people who don't otherwise vote in any election and normally don't care. They are a notable influence in our support base and as activists we need to keep this number growing to join our cause.
So the breakdown is both sobering but hopeful to me. We must overcome the "Good Citizen" bloc of voters by recruiting Apathetic and Registered Voters. We have the activist bloc pretty much wrapped up here, but our numbers are small so we have to reach out and engage more potential voters as a resource.