My Prediction for Tomorrow

[James Madison]

So, here we are less than 24 hrs. away from election night. Over the past several hours I've been looking over the interent, gathering information, and comparing multiple polls. So, without further adue here's MY prediction for the 2008 Presidential Election, state-by-state.

Alabama (9 Electoral Votes): Should be an easy pick-up for McCain; he's running at almost a 2:1 ratio in most major polls. McCain: 9 Obama: 0

Alaska (3 Electoral Votes): An historically red-state likely to continue that trend. McCain takes another.
McCain: 12 Obama: 0

Arizona (10 Electoral Votes): Given this is McCain's home state, Arizona should fall into the Republican column easily. McCain: 22 Obama

Arkansas (6 Electoral Votes): Another easy pick-up for McCain. McCain: 28 Obama: 0

California (55 Electoral Votes): Cali always come through for the Dems year after year, and the last time I checked there isn't anyone named "Reagan" on the ballot. Obama: 55 McCain: 28

Colorado (9 Electoral Votes): Toss-up. W won the state twice in '00 and '04, but these Republicans are not in the same mold as their Southern counterparts. The fiscal conservatives in the state despise Bush, which leads me to believe they'll give Obama a chance. Obama: 64 McCain: 28

Connecticut (7 Electoral Votes): This state's about as blue as they come. Easy pick-up for Obama. Obama: 71 McCain: 28

Delaware (3 Electoral Votes): See "Connecticut". Obama: 74 McCain: 28

Florida (27 Electoral Votes): Major toss-up state. Most polls are showing Obama with a ~2% advantage over McCain, within the margin of error. Huge block of naval bases in the panhandle will certainly give McCain an advantage but the real question is will the Latino voters who supported Hillary come out strong for Obama? My gut says no. Obama: 74 McCain: 55

Georgia (15 Electoral Votes): A large minority population, combined with Bob Barr's popularity within the state could both help Obama pick-up a traditionally very red-state. Still, McCain wins by ~5%. Obama: 74 McCain: 70

Hawaii (4 Electoral Votes): Easy pick-up for Obama. Obama: 78 McCain: 70

Idaho (4 Electoral Votes): Does this one even need explaining? Obama: 78 McCain: 74

Illinois (21 Electoral Votes): Obama's home state + going blue for the last ump-teen elections = an Obama victory. Obama: 99 McCain: 74

Indiana (11 Electoral Votes): A state that hasn't gone Democratic since LBJ in '64. Should be a close one, but the state's history still tells my gut McCain will win this one. Obama: 99 McCain: 85

Iowa (7 Electoral Votes): Similar to Colorado as the Republicans here tend to be more of the fiscal variety rather than the social variety. Obama has even opened up a double-digit lead in the state, so I'm projecting this one won't even be close. Obama: 106 McCain: 85

Kansas (6 Electoral Votes): Unlike Iowa, social conservatives abound here. McCain in a landslide. Obama: 106 McCain: 91

Kentucky (8 Electoral Votes): Again, an historically red-state that should go red this time around, too. Obama: 106 McCain: 99

Louisiana (9 Electoral Votes): A southern state that likes its politicians right of center. McCain: 108 Obama: 106

Maine (4 Electoral Votes): An easy one for the Obama campaign. Obama: 110 McCain: 108

Maryland (10 Electoral Votes): A state that hasn't gone Republican since Reagan. Don't expect anything new here. Obama: 120 McCain: 108

Massachusetts (12 Electoral Votes): Might be the bluest state in the country. 'Nuff said. Obama: 132 McCain: 108

Michigan (17 Electoral Votes): A Democratic stronghold that shows no signs of going Republican. Obama: 149 McCain: 108

Minnesota (10 Electoral Votes): Another solid blue-state. Look for a double-digit win for Obama here. Obama: 159 McCain: 108

Mississippi (6 Electoral Votes): Could be a lot closer than most expect it to be, but I still think McCain will win by ~8%. Obama: 159 McCain: 114

Missouri (11 Electoral Votes): Flip a coin on this one. Literally. McCain holds a one-point lead that's well within the margin of error. For some reason but my gut tells me Obama will win this one. Obama: 170 McCain: 114

Montana (3 Electoral Votes): This one will be surprisingly close. Ron Paul being on the ticket here could prove to be a spoiler for the libertarian-leaning Montana. McCain wins a VERY close race. Obama: 170 McCain: 117

Nebraska (5 Electoral Votes): Big-time red-state. McCain by 20. Obama: 170 McCain: 122

Nevada (5 Electoral Votes): The burgeoning state of Las Vegas-- I mean Nevada. Obama holds a double-digit lead in some polls while other show the race being much tighter. Expect Obama around 8-9%. Obama: 175 McCain: 122

New Hampshire (4 Electoral Votes): The home of the "Free-State Project" turns out to be anything but. Obama takes the state easily. Obama: 179 McCain: 122

New Jersey (15 Electoral Votes): Seriously? Obama: 194 McCain: 122

New Mexico (5 Electoral Votes): Another toss-up. In recent months, however, Obama has built up a fairly solid lead within the state. He takes it fairly easily. Obama: 199 McCain: 122

New York (31 Electoral Votes): Come on, it's New York. Obama: 230 McCain: 122

North Carolina (15 Electoral Votes): Get the coin back out. Seriously though, this state could go EITHER way. McCain holds another one-point lead, but Obama has been ahead in those same polls. I think Obama will entice just enough young voters to actually vote and ensure him the victory. Obama: 245 McCain: 122

North Dakota (3 Electoral Votes): Another state that could be surprisingly close. I still think McCain will win by a few points. Obama: 245 McCain: 125

Ohio (20 Electoral Votes): A major battleground state and home of why-in-the-hell-is-this-man-on-tv Joe the Plumber. This union-heavy state has always been farther left than its neighbors, Kentucky, Indiana, and West Virginia, and that factory worker influence should give Obama a five-point victory here. Obama: 265 McCain: 125

Oklahoma (7 Electoral Votes): One of only a handfull of states that I can guarantee a McCain victory. Obama: 265 McCain: 132

Oregon (7 Electoral Votes): The historically blue-state will stay that way. Obama: 272 McCain: 132

Pennsylvannia (21 Electoral Votes): This time around, the Democrats won't have to worry about losing this state to the Republicans. Obama: 293 McCain: 132

Rhode Island (4 Electoral Votes): Easy pick-up for Obama. Obama: 297 McCain: 132

South Carolina (8 Electoral Votes): Might be closer than some think, but McCain should win this state handidly. Obama: 293 McCain: 140

South Dakota (3 Electoral Votes): Should be a fairly easy pick-up for McCain. Obama: 297 McCain: 135

Tennessee (11 Electoral Votes): A state that's about as red as they come. McCain should win here easily. Obama: 297 McCain: 146

Texas (34 Electoral Votes): Lock for McCain. Seriously, what did you expect?! Obama: 297 McCain: 180

Utah (5 Electoral Votes): Take it to the bank...McCain will win by a 40 point margin here. Obama: 297 McCain: 185

Vermont (3 Electoral Votes): A VERY blue-state. Obama wins easily. Obama: 300 McCain: 185

Virginia (13 Electoral Votes): Traditionally a red-state that has been showing signs of moving into the Democratic column. Virginia has a large military population that is overwhelmingly Pro-McCain, but Obama has too much momentum here. Obama: 313 McCain: 185

Washington (11 Electoral Votes): Basically it's uber-liberal Seattle and then the rest of the state. Don't expect an upset here, Spokane. Obama: 324 McCain: 185

Washington D.C. (3 Electoral Votes): The question here isn't who will win, it's whether or not John McCain can get 10% of the vote. Obama: 327 McCain: 185

West Virginia (5 Electoral Votes): Could be a close call. McCain should pull it out, however. Obama: 324 McCain: 190

Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes): A sure bet for Dems in the past will continue to be that way. Obama: 334 McCain: 190

Wyoming (3 Electoral Votes): At this point I'm so tired of typing... Obama: 334 McCain: 193

There you go, folks. Barack Obama WILL be the next president of the United States in one of the more lop-sidded elections in recent memory.

[NewEnd]

Obama, 399 to 139, 55% pop vote to McCains 43% pop vote

Dems get 59 seats, + Sanders, Lieberman + Reps = 40 seats.

Big surprises will be Georgia, Montana and North Dakota, which will go Obama
McCain will hold off, just barely, in Arizona and WV, and Nebraska's Second district, (Nebraska distributes electors)

Dems pick up 30 seats in the house.

[Kludge]

Who wants to place bets on Montana?


I'll put $5 on it going to Obama. :p

[James Madison]

Obama, 399 to 139, 55% pop vote to McCains 43% pop vote

Dems get 59 seats, + Sanders, Lieberman + Reps = 40 seats.

Big surprises will be Georgia, Montana and North Dakota, which will go Obama
McCain will hold off, just barely, in Arizona and WV, and Nebraska's Second district, (Nebraska distributes electors)

Dems pick up 30 seats in the house.

Oh, I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see Georgia, Montana, and North Dakota go Obama. For some reason I really think Florida will go McCain but NC and Missouri should be victories for Obama.

[No1ButPaul08]

Iowa (7 Electoral Votes): Similar to Colorado as the Republicans here tend to be more of the fiscal variety rather than the social variety. Obama has even opened up a double-digit lead in the state, so I'm projecting this one won't even be close. Obama: 106 McCain: 85


I think this is wrong. Iowa Republican's tend to be strong social conservatives. This is the state Mike Huckabee won and where Pat Robertson finished a strong second in 1988. All the media could talk about when mentioning the Iowa Caucus was where the large Evangelical vote would go. RP's campaign created a infomercial specifically for Iowa, where the first issue discussed in length is abortion, something RP hardly mentions (not saying he's not strongly pro-life, he just doesn't tend to focus on in speeches.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQNWHmiGj-k

[pacelli]

So, here we are less than 24 hrs. away from election night. Over the past several hours I've been looking over the interent, gathering information, and comparing multiple polls. So, without further adue here's MY prediction for the 2008 Presidential Election, state-by-state.

Alabama (9 Electoral Votes): Should be an easy pick-up for McCain; he's running at almost a 2:1 ratio in most major polls. McCain: 9 Obama: 0

Alaska (3 Electoral Votes): An historically red-state likely to continue that trend. McCain takes another.
McCain: 12 Obama: 0

Arizona (10 Electoral Votes): Given this is McCain's home state, Arizona should fall into the Republican column easily. McCain: 22 Obama

Arkansas (6 Electoral Votes): Another easy pick-up for McCain. McCain: 28 Obama: 0

California (55 Electoral Votes): Cali always come through for the Dems year after year, and the last time I checked there isn't anyone named "Reagan" on the ballot. Obama: 55 McCain: 28

Colorado (9 Electoral Votes): Toss-up. W won the state twice in '00 and '04, but these Republicans are not in the same mold as their Southern counterparts. The fiscal conservatives in the state despise Bush, which leads me to believe they'll give Obama a chance. Obama: 64 McCain: 28

Connecticut (7 Electoral Votes): This state's about as blue as they come. Easy pick-up for Obama. Obama: 71 McCain: 28

Delaware (3 Electoral Votes): See "Connecticut". Obama: 74 McCain: 28

Florida (27 Electoral Votes): Major toss-up state. Most polls are showing Obama with a ~2% advantage over McCain, within the margin of error. Huge block of naval bases in the panhandle will certainly give McCain an advantage but the real question is will the Latino voters who supported Hillary come out strong for Obama? My gut says no. Obama: 74 McCain: 55

Georgia (15 Electoral Votes): A large minority population, combined with Bob Barr's popularity within the state could both help Obama pick-up a traditionally very red-state. Still, McCain wins by ~5%. Obama: 74 McCain: 70

Hawaii (4 Electoral Votes): Easy pick-up for Obama. Obama: 78 McCain: 70

Idaho (4 Electoral Votes): Does this one even need explaining? Obama: 78 McCain: 74

Illinois (21 Electoral Votes): Obama's home state + going blue for the last ump-teen elections = an Obama victory. Obama: 99 McCain: 74

Indiana (11 Electoral Votes): A state that hasn't gone Democratic since LBJ in '64. Should be a close one, but the state's history still tells my gut McCain will win this one. Obama: 99 McCain: 85

Iowa (7 Electoral Votes): Similar to Colorado as the Republicans here tend to be more of the fiscal variety rather than the social variety. Obama has even opened up a double-digit lead in the state, so I'm projecting this one won't even be close. Obama: 106 McCain: 85

Kansas (6 Electoral Votes): Unlike Iowa, social conservatives abound here. McCain in a landslide. Obama: 106 McCain: 91

Kentucky (8 Electoral Votes): Again, an historically red-state that should go red this time around, too. Obama: 106 McCain: 99

Louisiana (9 Electoral Votes): A southern state that likes its politicians right of center. McCain: 108 Obama: 106

Maine (4 Electoral Votes): An easy one for the Obama campaign. Obama: 110 McCain: 108

Maryland (10 Electoral Votes): A state that hasn't gone Republican since Reagan. Don't expect anything new here. Obama: 120 McCain: 108

Massachusetts (12 Electoral Votes): Might be the bluest state in the country. 'Nuff said. Obama: 132 McCain: 108

Michigan (17 Electoral Votes): A Democratic stronghold that shows no signs of going Republican. Obama: 149 McCain: 108

Minnesota (10 Electoral Votes): Another solid blue-state. Look for a double-digit win for Obama here. Obama: 159 McCain: 108

Mississippi (6 Electoral Votes): Could be a lot closer than most expect it to be, but I still think McCain will win by ~8%. Obama: 159 McCain: 114

Missouri (11 Electoral Votes): Flip a coin on this one. Literally. McCain holds a one-point lead that's well within the margin of error. For some reason but my gut tells me Obama will win this one. Obama: 170 McCain: 114

Montana (3 Electoral Votes): This one will be surprisingly close. Ron Paul being on the ticket here could prove to be a spoiler for the libertarian-leaning Montana. McCain wins a VERY close race. Obama: 170 McCain: 117

Nebraska (5 Electoral Votes): Big-time red-state. McCain by 20. Obama: 170 McCain: 122

Nevada (5 Electoral Votes): The burgeoning state of Las Vegas-- I mean Nevada. Obama holds a double-digit lead in some polls while other show the race being much tighter. Expect Obama around 8-9%. Obama: 175 McCain: 122

New Hampshire (4 Electoral Votes): The home of the "Free-State Project" turns out to be anything but. Obama takes the state easily. Obama: 179 McCain: 122

New Jersey (15 Electoral Votes): Seriously? Obama: 194 McCain: 122

New Mexico (5 Electoral Votes): Another toss-up. In recent months, however, Obama has built up a fairly solid lead within the state. He takes it fairly easily. Obama: 199 McCain: 122

New York (31 Electoral Votes): Come on, it's New York. Obama: 230 McCain: 122

North Carolina (15 Electoral Votes): Get the coin back out. Seriously though, this state could go EITHER way. McCain holds another one-point lead, but Obama has been ahead in those same polls. I think Obama will entice just enough young voters to actually vote and ensure him the victory. Obama: 245 McCain: 122

North Dakota (3 Electoral Votes): Another state that could be surprisingly close. I still think McCain will win by a few points. Obama: 245 McCain: 125

Ohio (20 Electoral Votes): A major battleground state and home of why-in-the-hell-is-this-man-on-tv Joe the Plumber. This union-heavy state has always been farther left than its neighbors, Kentucky, Indiana, and West Virginia, and that factory worker influence should give Obama a five-point victory here. Obama: 265 McCain: 125

Oklahoma (7 Electoral Votes): One of only a handfull of states that I can guarantee a McCain victory. Obama: 265 McCain: 132

Oregon (7 Electoral Votes): The historically blue-state will stay that way. Obama: 272 McCain: 132

Pennsylvannia (21 Electoral Votes): This time around, the Democrats won't have to worry about losing this state to the Republicans. Obama: 293 McCain: 132

Rhode Island (4 Electoral Votes): Easy pick-up for Obama. Obama: 297 McCain: 132

South Carolina (8 Electoral Votes): Might be closer than some think, but McCain should win this state handidly. Obama: 293 McCain: 140

South Dakota (3 Electoral Votes): Should be a fairly easy pick-up for McCain. Obama: 297 McCain: 135

Tennessee (11 Electoral Votes): A state that's about as red as they come. McCain should win here easily. Obama: 297 McCain: 146

Texas (34 Electoral Votes): Lock for McCain. Seriously, what did you expect?! Obama: 297 McCain: 180

Utah (5 Electoral Votes): Take it to the bank...McCain will win by a 40 point margin here. Obama: 297 McCain: 185

Vermont (3 Electoral Votes): A VERY blue-state. Obama wins easily. Obama: 300 McCain: 185

Virginia (13 Electoral Votes): Traditionally a red-state that has been showing signs of moving into the Democratic column. Virginia has a large military population that is overwhelmingly Pro-McCain, but Obama has too much momentum here. Obama: 313 McCain: 185

Washington (11 Electoral Votes): Basically it's uber-liberal Seattle and then the rest of the state. Don't expect an upset here, Spokane. Obama: 324 McCain: 185

Washington D.C. (3 Electoral Votes): The question here isn't who will win, it's whether or not John McCain can get 10% of the vote. Obama: 327 McCain: 185

West Virginia (5 Electoral Votes): Could be a close call. McCain should pull it out, however. Obama: 324 McCain: 190

Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes): A sure bet for Dems in the past will continue to be that way. Obama: 334 McCain: 190

Wyoming (3 Electoral Votes): At this point I'm so tired of typing... Obama: 334 McCain: 193

There you go, folks. Barack Obama WILL be the next president of the United States in one of the more lop-sidded elections in recent memory.

Preserved for posterity. Let's do some checking once the system has had its way with us. :D

[Bruno]

I think this is wrong. Iowa Republican's tend to be strong social conservatives. This is the state Mike Huckabee won and where Pat Robertson finished a strong second in 1988. All the media could talk about when mentioning the Iowa Caucus was where the large Evangelical vote would go. RP's campaign created a infomercial specifically for Iowa, where the first issue discussed in length is abortion, something RP hardly mentions (not saying he's not strongly pro-life, he just doesn't tend to focus on in speeches.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQNWHmiGj-k

There may be some Bradley effect, but Obama will win Iowa by 10 percent imho. There's a lot more excitement here for Obama than McCain, unfortunately.

[No1ButPaul08]

There may be some Bradley effect, but Obama will win Iowa by 10 percent imho. There's a lot more excitement here for Obama than McCain, unfortunately.

I'm sorry, i meant to clarify that i was only talking about Iowa Republicans. I do think Obama is going to win Iowa. McCain has never been popular in Iowa due to his not so strong social conservative stances (in their view anyway), and his most respectable position in his whole platform of opposing corn and farm subsidies. I bet they love Palin though, but that won't be enough

[James Madison]

I'm sorry, i meant to clarify that i was only talking about Iowa Republicans. I do think Obama is going to win Iowa. McCain has never been popular in Iowa due to his not so strong social conservative stances (in their view anyway), and his most respectable position in his whole platform of opposing corn and farm subsidies. I bet they love Palin though, but that won't be enough

This is true. In my opinion, Iowa is an interesting state as marks the transition from the Bible-Belt politics of the lower midwest and the south to the libertarian-leaning politics of the Great Plains and moutain west.

[James Madison]

I think this is wrong. Iowa Republican's tend to be strong social conservatives. This is the state Mike Huckabee won and where Pat Robertson finished a strong second in 1988. All the media could talk about when mentioning the Iowa Caucus was where the large Evangelical vote would go. RP's campaign created a infomercial specifically for Iowa, where the first issue discussed in length is abortion, something RP hardly mentions (not saying he's not strongly pro-life, he just doesn't tend to focus on in speeches.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uQNWHmiGj-k

Well, you are correct in saying there are a large number of social conservatives in Iowa. But my point was there are also a lot more fiscal conservatives here than from neighboring states, say Kansas or Missouri.

[James Madison]

Bump.