The Republican Race After The NH Debate

[Thom1776]

Forget, Brownback, Tancredo and Hunter; they're done. Expect all three to drop out after Q3 numbers are announced, if not sooner.

It's now a six-way race.

Paul, anti-war, vs. the five-headed, pro-war monster: Rudy McRompsabee.

Paul's support can only have increased from the debate. He last polled nationally at 3%. I am sincerely hoping that the first national post-debate poll puts him at 5%. He needs AT LEAST this much to gain any credibility from anyone other than his current supporters. One thing that will help Paul immensely are the Q3 numbers that come out in October. I think we will all be pleasantly surprised.

Romney is fading, and the only thing that will keep him going is his own bank account. He is focusing on Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping that strong showings in those states will give him momentum for the rest of the country. If he doesn't win either one, he's in big trouble.

McCain gets a reprieve for his performance. He is going to stay in until January to collect federal matching funds.

Giuliani took a hit from his performance, not a big one, but enough for people to start questioning the presumed inevitability of his nomination.

Huckabee gains support by virtue of the less than stellar performances of Romney and Giuliani. He needs to translate that into a lot of money, fast. He will limp into Iowa, giving everything he's got into winning there. If he doesn't, he's out.

The only question about Fred Thompson at this time is: How much money does/will he have? I'm sure it's a lot, but probably not as much as most would expect. Now he's got to start acting like a president. He's gonna have a hard time with abortion and guns. He better hope he doesn't get stage fright in his first debate. I'm sure the other candidates are licking their chops in anticipation. Thompson is gonna look like fresh meat to these hungry inmates.

Here is my guess at some national poll numbers that we may see in the next few days:

Thompson.............22%
Giuliani..................21%
McCain..................16%
Huckabee..............12%
Other/undecided...12%
Romney.................11%
Paul.........................6%

In this hypothetical, Paul is only 16 points out from first place. Paul needs numbers like these to prepare for our final run at New Hampshire in January.

[Chester Copperpot]

Forget, Brownback, Tancredo and Hunter; they're done. Expect all three to drop out after Q3 numbers are announced, if not sooner.

It's now a six-way race.

Paul, anti-war, vs. the five-headed, pro-war monster: Rudy McRompsabee.

Paul's support can only have increased from the debate. He last polled nationally at 3%. I am sincerely hoping that the first national post-debate poll puts him at 5%. He needs AT LEAST this much to gain any credibility from anyone other than his current supporters. One thing that will help Paul immensely are the Q3 numbers that come out in October. I think we will all be pleasantly surprised.

Romney is fading, and the only thing that will keep him going is his own bank account. He is focusing on Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping that strong showings in those states will give him momentum for the rest of the country. If he doesn't win either one, he's in big trouble.

McCain gets a reprieve for his performance. He is going to stay in until January to collect federal matching funds.




Giuliani took a hit from his performance, not a big one, but enough for people to start questioning the presumed inevitability of his nomination.

Huckabee gains support by virtue of the less than stellar performances of Romney and Giuliani. He needs to translate that into a lot of money, fast. He will limp into Iowa, giving everything he's got into winning there. If he doesn't, he's out.

The only question about Fred Thompson at this time is: How much money does/will he have? I'm sure it's a lot, but probably not as much as most would expect. Now he's got to start acting like a president. He's gonna have a hard time with abortion and guns. He better hope he doesn't get stage fright in his first debate. I'm sure the other candidates are licking their chops in anticipation. Thompson is gonna look like fresh meat to these hungry inmates.

Here is my guess at some national poll numbers that we may see in the next few days:

Thompson.............22%
Giuliani..................21%
McCain..................16%
Huckabee..............12%
Other/undecided...12%
Romney.................11%
Paul.........................6%

In this hypothetical, Paul is only 16 points out from first place. Paul needs numbers like these to prepare for our final run at New Hampshire in January.
EXPECT THE NEOCONS TO SEND OUT THOMPSON TO ATTACK RON PAUL.. Hes got that witty charmful, fake southern ozark thing going on, so they might feel he is a match for the good doctor. Im sure Ron is up to the challenge..

"BRING IT!!!!!!"

[Stealth4]

Look I recently attended a local republican group meeting, we have a huge uphill battle in the party. I took it to them with kindness and maturity like Ron Paul does (Im not as good obviously - but I went there to learn and meet people and promote Ron in a good, subtle way)

We (you) need to get involved in your local republican groups - they need to see us attending meetings, happy hours in growing numbers - normal people supporting Ron Paul.

Its not easy - I wasnt exactly looking forward to going, but Im glad I did.

Consider it in your area, but be careful how you present yourself - we need no combative arguments at this time or the door will be shut.

Good luck.

[inibo]

Look I recently attended a local republican group meeting, we have a huge uphill battle in the party. I took it to them with kindness and maturity like Ron Paul does (Im not as good obviously - but I went there to learn and meet people and promote Ron in a good, subtle way)

We (you) need to get involved in your local republican groups - they need to see us attending meetings, happy hours in growing numbers - normal people supporting Ron Paul.

Its not easy - I wasnt exactly looking forward to going, but Im glad I did.

Consider it in your area, but be careful how you present yourself - we need no combative arguments at this time or the door will be shut.

Good luck.

Bump.

We all need to read this over and over and over again. The local party people, especially in "blue" states, will start to waiver if they see us showing up and getting involved. They might have been duped by the neocons, but their survival instinct can be cultivated enough to bring them out of it.

[UCFGavin]

i don't see huckabee at 12%

[aknappjr]

Look I recently attended a local republican group meeting, we have a huge uphill battle in the party. I took it to them with kindness and maturity like Ron Paul does (Im not as good obviously - but I went there to learn and meet people and promote Ron in a good, subtle way)

We (you) need to get involved in your local republican groups - they need to see us attending meetings, happy hours in growing numbers - normal people supporting Ron Paul.

Its not easy - I wasnt exactly looking forward to going, but Im glad I did.

Consider it in your area, but be careful how you present yourself - we need no combative arguments at this time or the door will be shut.

Good luck.


The first Republicans I went to, people looked at me (a clean-cut Ron Paul supporter) with either surprise or a bit of disdain. Then, as I reiterated Dr. Paul's freedom pro-constitution limited government message, Republicans started to listen. Then at the next people started to like Dr. Paul and be converted. So KEEP GOING and keep talking Dr. Paul's Talking Points (for your area and the demographic you're talking to)

[FSP-Rebel]

i don't see huckabee at 12%
I see Romney ahead of both Huck and Cane

[Badger Paul]

Gee Hunter's out of it? Tancredo's out of it too? Well so much for the Iowa and Texas straw polls results then right?

Actually, its not the straw poll results, it about campaign depth, its about money, level of support and its about having something to say. Neither Hunter, nor Tancredo nor Brownback have either national support, any kind of fevor for them or not much to say outside of a few single issues and that's the difference. They had their chance and they can continue on if they wish but now its basically a six-person field of the serious from now until Jan. 5 when Wyoming votes.

[Richie]

Actually, its not the straw poll results, it about campaign depth, its about money, level of support and its about having something to say. Neither Hunter, nor Tancredo nor Brownback have either national support, any kind of fevor for them or not much to say outside of a few single issues and that's the difference. They had their chance and they can continue on if they wish but now its basically a six-person field of the serious from now until Jan. 5 when Wyoming votes.

Are there any signs of where Wyoming is leaning at the moment?

[kylejack]

Try to stay realistic. Over the entire campaign we've managed to move from * to 3 percent, so I think its still going to take a while to move higher. Also, I suspect though people may get curious as a result of this appearance, parts of it will make people apprehensive, like the unanswered accusation that Ron Paul will get rid of the CIA and FBI.

[LibertyEagle]

Look I recently attended a local republican group meeting, we have a huge uphill battle in the party. I took it to them with kindness and maturity like Ron Paul does (Im not as good obviously - but I went there to learn and meet people and promote Ron in a good, subtle way)

We (you) need to get involved in your local republican groups - they need to see us attending meetings, happy hours in growing numbers - normal people supporting Ron Paul.

Its not easy - I wasnt exactly looking forward to going, but Im glad I did.

Consider it in your area, but be careful how you present yourself - we need no combative arguments at this time or the door will be shut.

Good luck.

Well said.

[NCGOPer_for_Paul]

Look I recently attended a local republican group meeting, we have a huge uphill battle in the party. I took it to them with kindness and maturity like Ron Paul does (Im not as good obviously - but I went there to learn and meet people and promote Ron in a good, subtle way)

We (you) need to get involved in your local republican groups - they need to see us attending meetings, happy hours in growing numbers - normal people supporting Ron Paul.

Its not easy - I wasnt exactly looking forward to going, but Im glad I did.

Consider it in your area, but be careful how you present yourself - we need no combative arguments at this time or the door will be shut.

Good luck.

Exactly! GREAT JOB!!!

And when we do this, realize that there are some smaller elections this year--mayors, town/city councils, county commissions, etc. Volunteer to help out the Republican candidates. Let the party know you are a loyal Republican, even if you are a Paul supporter. You help them in November, you will be in a great position when the tsunami hits in February. You will have made excellent contacts and gotten to know the GOP leaders in your communities.