Lepard's Financial Advice

[llepard]

I have been getting a lot of PM's asking for advice.

Rather than respond to each one individually here are my thoughts.

By law I am not allowed to give advice since I am not a government registered RIA. Having said that, and using the First Amendment as my defense, I will offer my opinions based on 30 years of investment experience. It may not apply to your situation. You must make your own decisions.

1. I would not own any stocks or mutual funds long. NONE. Not even emerging market funds (which IMHO will be good at the bottom). They will all be sold in the coming panic.

2. I would not own any bonds other than foreign bonds, and even those may come to be a problem. Paper is going to become worthless. I would sell municipals, bond funds, money markets, all of that stuff. Ask people in the First Reserve fund -- they cannot get their money back.

3. I would keep a very large cash balance in a safe place. Enough to pay for 6 months of living costs.

4. I would not put over $250k in a bank, and even that I advise against. Banks could be shut down. ATM's may not work. Credit cards may not work.

5. I would not pay off any debt if I could be sure to service it. I will repay it with worthless future dollars.

6. I would stock up on food and essentials. I have 6 months of food in my house.

7. I would buy and store precious metals in a safe place.

I would be prepared to clean out my bank accounts, brokerage accounts, all money accounts. I would know how to wire and transfer money quickly. In fact, I would try to get everything to cash now, or to accounts which are overseas. If you have an account overseas that is more than $10k you must report it or you are committing a felony.

8. If you are an investment professional or have investment experience you might want to use stock short sales, put options, and futures. If you do not know what you are doing don't touch this. There is a lot of volatility.

9. One idea i have right now, that I hold in my 401k is SRS. It is 2x the inverse of the REIT index. Trading at 97.91. Should go much higher. Also, I own puts on Wells Fargo. FHUVU. Oct. 37.5 traded Friday at 4.00 Very risky.

I would avoid cities. I would be prepared for a lot of changes.

There is a very hard storm coming. The key will be to hang onto what you have. In a bear market he who loses the least is the winner.

Be very wary of all financial institutions. They can fail. Do not put too many eggs in one basket. I have a dozen brokerage accounts. One day we could wake up and it will be GAME OVER. The dollar is devalued. Ten old dollars are worth one new dollar. All accounts are frozen. You have what you have.

I believe that in this scenario Gold is the best defense.

[runningdiz]

Thanks again Lepard you always provide us with an interesting and helpful read! Will definitely use this "opinion".;)

[liberteebell]

Thank you for the info!

[freelance]

Thanks for the post. I was going to write you, but I figured you were up to your eyeballs in alligators right now. ;-)

[CurtisLow]

Thanks for the information Lepard.

Question. My home is up for sale. When I get a buyer, and the deal go's Thu. what is the safest way to make sure the money I receive is there then I buy my next place? around-200k

Thanks!

[Arklatex]

Thanks llepard, true patriot.

My 'financial adviser' had my portfolio at 2% in gold, after I got off the phone with him it's at 20%, silver at 8%. I moved out of all smallcap, midcap, and large SP indexes. I did leave money in the income fund, the big dividend players, and moved 7% into mining stocks, GDX. 4% into the S&P inverse instrument.

I also left 10% in emerging markets. I feel good about all of that.

What I don't feel good about is I left 40% in bonds and fixed securities. I know a lot more about equities than I do debt but I'd always been under the belief that bonds were much safer than stocks during recessions. I guess if we have hyperinflation though that is not true.

[Malakai]

Thanks for info! Wish I had my own $$ to invest it sounds like fun.

What do you think of buying a house right now? We have 66k in the bank from sinkhole settlement, in a BB&T CD. I advised my mom to use them, and considering things I've since read, I think it was a good decision.

Anyway, she wants to sell this one off for whatever we can get, and buy another house. This will have nothing to do with investing, happy to weather the coming storm from the new home.

So would you advise just buying the nicest thing we can afford now, or waiting and doing something besides a CD paying 1.5%?

Curtis, I'm curious, is your home worth 200k? A year ago houses in my area were still selling for 200k, and they were 50-70k before the bubble. Now the only ones selling for over 100k are from people still getting zero down mortgages (amusing that they are still available so easily)...

[Arklatex]

I'd get out of that CD thats paying 1.5%, you can find local banks that are paying 5% in regular checking accounts. Might not stay like that for long though if there are more interest rates cuts.

A house in the south or midwest out in the country is probably wise!

[Malakai]

..

[Kotin]

Thanks alot Llepard for your insights.

Let us patriots stick together through the coming crisis.

[Suzu]

I believe that in this scenario Gold is the best defense.

I disagree with this statement. If the dollar is worthless, what good is exchanging metals for dollars? Better to have the means to grow food. Everyone will be willing to trade for food when food is scarce. You can't eat metals.

The means to grow food includes: (a) land with good soil, sufficient rain and/or ability to irrigate; (b) seeds that will produce plants with fertile seed; (c) knowledge and skill to produce your crops without the aid of agricultural chemicals; and (d) the right tools to work the land.

[llepard]

I disagree with this statement. If the dollar is worthless, what good is exchanging metals for dollars? Better to have the means to grow food. Everyone will be willing to trade for food when food is scarce. You can't eat metals.

The means to grow food includes: (a) land with good soil, sufficient rain and/or ability to irrigate; (b) seeds that will produce plants with fertile seed; (c) knowledge and skill to produce your crops without the aid of agricultural chemicals; and (d) the right tools to work the land.

Agree. Food more important than gold. But, gold is money in every country in the world. Some of them will have food. Gold will be good to exchange for food.

Money is nothing more than a claim on productive capacity. Having the capacity would be the first goal. But capacity is not easily moved. Gold is.

I think gold could be worth 2-100x its present value in terms of real purchasing power if the entire world decides that paper money is crap. There is not enough gold in the world compared to productive capacity and the government has illegally suppressed its price.

[SeanEdwards]

I disagree with this statement. If the dollar is worthless, what good is exchanging metals for dollars? Better to have the means to grow food. Everyone will be willing to trade for food when food is scarce. You can't eat metals.

The means to grow food includes: (a) land with good soil, sufficient rain and/or ability to irrigate; (b) seeds that will produce plants with fertile seed; (c) knowledge and skill to produce your crops without the aid of agricultural chemicals; and (d) the right tools to work the land.

I think the point is that people will be willing to trade food for precious metals. PM's will again become the preferred medium of exchange. Yes, it's worthwhile to have your own source of food, but you can't stockpile food as well as you can stockpile PM's. Get your food security addressed, and then start padding the nest with pm's that you will be able to use in trade in even the nuttiest apocalypse scenario.

[LibertyEagle]

Do you think commodities and basic materials have a lot further to fall?

[Kotin]

I would say get alcohol like rum or whiskey, big jugs of them.


we all know for many people alcohol will be more valuable then food.


so it will be a great trade and barter tool.

[billjarrett]

Most of my money is in a 401k now, in very conservative investments (I haven't lost very much at all). I just changed jobs, and the money is in my old 401k.

I'd like to put this into something more solid (like gold/silver), but if I withdrawl I lose quite a bit in taxes. I actually have very little cash on hand at the moment (especially not 6 months worth). Unsure what to do.

[KramerDSP]

Larry, thanks for your advice. Could you clarify what you mean when you say "5. I would not pay off any debt if I could be sure to service it. I will repay it with worthless future dollars." Specifically, what do you mean when you say "could be sure to service it"? Thanks for all you do.

[gb13]

Thanks Lepard.

One question: How do you feel about silver, as opposed to gold, for someone with limited capital for PMs. The main reason I've been buying silver lately is because the premiums for smaller quantities of gold is enormous. I've been getting good deals on silver lately.

Thanks for the great advice.

[Johnnybags]

If you have a few grand in savings like 75 percent of America, convert Federal(P)reserve notes(P) (is for preserving wealth for the elite) into US Mint Nickels. They are our only non fiat means of exchange. Inflation will only cause it to be made of zinc or steel. Upon a new mint made of such, the value will at least double. Worst scenario is its still worth .05 if massive deflation hits.

Second, if you have more equity, you can short, buy puts, or buy rural acreage outside of cities a couple hours away, preferably with farmland and water supply. New Hampshire is a good choice. Mass residents are likely to vote out the income tax and have the legislature block the will of the people and many will move over the border(demand). Close to the Mass border and near Vermont(Keene) is prime. Massachusetts is insolvent.

Third, food, seeds, etc. I would also invest in fermentation supplies(beer or wine kit) now. Booze is always in demand and the kits will soar in price. Get it now and start your own small budget brewery.

4th- Arms and ammo

5th- An alias

[RJB]

5. I would not pay off any debt if I could be sure to service it. I will repay it with worthless future dollars.

My only debt is student loans (about $100,000). I'm broke and renting a house. I have the student loan on deferment. I guess I should keep it that way for now.

[OKRonPaul]

Most of my money is in a 401k now, in very conservative investments (I haven't lost very much at all). I just changed jobs, and the money is in my old 401k.

I'd like to put this into something more solid (like gold/silver), but if I withdrawl I lose quite a bit in taxes. I actually have very little cash on hand at the moment (especially not 6 months worth). Unsure what to do.

Since the 401k is with your previous employer you have the option to move it into a similar IRA type account with a different investment firm and get tons more choice as to investment options with no penalty. I had a couple old, smaller 401k's hanging around that I did this with recently. I wish I had this option with my big 401k but I still work there so it's stuck.

[billjarrett]

With the way the economy is, is it a good idea still to keep money in 401k/IRA? E.g., what if I make a IRA with Vanguard, and Vanguard goes under? Or, since I have so little in cash, would it be worth it to cash it out?

[werdd]

Lep, ive already done most of the things you outlined, except the whole 250k in the bank thing ;).

[hopeforamerica]

Most of my money is in a 401k now, in very conservative investments (I haven't lost very much at all). I just changed jobs, and the money is in my old 401k.

I'd like to put this into something more solid (like gold/silver), but if I withdrawl I lose quite a bit in taxes. I actually have very little cash on hand at the moment (especially not 6 months worth). Unsure what to do.

Rollover your 401K into an account with Peter Schiff's company!!!! That's what I did, and instead of loosing $$, I'm making a bit.

http://www.europac.net/

[llepard]

Do you think commodities and basic materials have a lot further to fall?

Tough call. Probably yes, then they sky rocket in hyperinflation.

Deflation is taking place as a result of the unwinding of leverage. Prechter of Elliott Wave thinks it will be worse than the 30's because it is at one degree of trend higher. I agree with this view. If this is true prices for everything will continue to fall for some time.

You have two competing forces. Demand destruction lowering prices. Dollar decreasing in value raising dollar prices.

It is very hard to know how the two will interact.

[llepard]

Larry, thanks for your advice. Could you clarify what you mean when you say "5. I would not pay off any debt if I could be sure to service it. I will repay it with worthless future dollars." Specifically, what do you mean when you say "could be sure to service it"? Thanks for all you do.

In the future. Real assets have value. Paper dollars do not. A new currency will emerge.

If you own a home with a mortgage I would not pay the mortgage off if you have the income or savings to make the payments. You do not want to lose the home at the market bottom. The home has value to you as shelter. If the dollar becomes worthless then in the future you will take something of value (like gold) exchange it for dollars (you will get a lot of them for very little) and use the dollars received to extinguish your debt.

The critical thing though is "being able to service it". If the debt is called (some mortgages are callable) could you pay it off. Can you be sure of making the payments? Even if you lose your job?

As Peter Schiff says, if he had a mortgage he would stop paying now and put the proceeds into gold. Let them foreclose. They will never take your house because it will take time to process the foreclosure and the whole country will be bankrupt. I personally would not advise this. But Schiff does.

The point is, debt is good, if you do not lose the underlying asset.

In the new environment possession will be nine tenths of the law.

[MRoCkEd]

It's illegal to give advice? wtf kind of a place is this? lol
Thanks for your general guidelines though, LL.

[rockandrollsouls]

I have been getting a lot of PM's asking for advice.

Rather than respond to each one individually here are my thoughts.

By law I am not allowed to give advice since I am not a government registered RIA. Having said that, and using the First Amendment as my defense, I will offer my opinions based on 30 years of investment experience. It may not apply to your situation. You must make your own decisions.

1. I would not own any stocks or mutual funds long. NONE. Not even emerging market funds (which IMHO will be good at the bottom). They will all be sold in the coming panic.

2. I would not own any bonds other than foreign bonds, and even those may come to be a problem. Paper is going to become worthless. I would sell municipals, bond funds, money markets, all of that stuff. Ask people in the First Reserve fund -- they cannot get their money back.

3. I would keep a very large cash balance in a safe place. Enough to pay for 6 months of living costs.

4. I would not put over $250k in a bank, and even that I advise against. Banks could be shut down. ATM's may not work. Credit cards may not work.

5. I would not pay off any debt if I could be sure to service it. I will repay it with worthless future dollars.

6. I would stock up on food and essentials. I have 6 months of food in my house.

7. I would buy and store precious metals in a safe place.

I would be prepared to clean out my bank accounts, brokerage accounts, all money accounts. I would know how to wire and transfer money quickly. In fact, I would try to get everything to cash now, or to accounts which are overseas. If you have an account overseas that is more than $10k you must report it or you are committing a felony.

8. If you are an investment professional or have investment experience you might want to use stock short sales, put options, and futures. If you do not know what you are doing don't touch this. There is a lot of volatility.

9. One idea i have right now, that I hold in my 401k is SRS. It is 2x the inverse of the REIT index. Trading at 97.91. Should go much higher. Also, I own puts on Wells Fargo. FHUVU. Oct. 37.5 traded Friday at 4.00 Very risky.

I would avoid cities. I would be prepared for a lot of changes.

There is a very hard storm coming. The key will be to hang onto what you have. In a bear market he who loses the least is the winner.

Be very wary of all financial institutions. They can fail. Do not put too many eggs in one basket. I have a dozen brokerage accounts. One day we could wake up and it will be GAME OVER. The dollar is devalued. Ten old dollars are worth one new dollar. All accounts are frozen. You have what you have.

I believe that in this scenario Gold is the best defense.

I second this....llepard really hit the nail on the head.

[gb13]

Thanks Lepard.

One question: How do you feel about silver, as opposed to gold, for someone with limited capital for PMs. The main reason I've been buying silver lately is because the premiums for smaller quantities of gold is enormous. I've been getting good deals on silver lately.

Thanks for the great advice.

I don't know if you missed this question, Llepard. Maybe you've answered it previously. Either way, if you could offer and opinion, or point me towards some info you find appropriate, I would be very appreciative.

Thanks again.

[CurtisLow]

Curtis, I'm curious, is your home worth 200k? A year ago houses in my area were still selling for 200k, and they were 50-70k before the bubble. Now the only ones selling for over 100k are from people still getting zero down mortgages (amusing that they are still available so easily)...

Yeah, I had a Realtor do a market analysis. I have my place priced below that price (my choice) My home is 2000sf of professional office and 2000sf of home. Any doctors out there looking for a rural office?

[thomaspaine23]

I tend to see a sharp deflation, perhaps followed by a period of slow deflation/stagnation. Then a period of hyperinflation.

IMO we are seeing the beginning of the sharp deflation. The dollar will strengthen as financial firms raise capital by dumping stocks commodities etc and place it into short term Treasuries.

If the credit markets stay frozen, more and more companies will be forced to liquidate investments to stay afloat.

I believe it will be an uneven deflation though. Necessities will not drop nearly as much as luxuries, I.E. homes and cars deflate, bread and milk don't.

I think we will also see a bigger disconnect between the physical gold/silver market and the paper market. Again this will be connected to financials dumping
paper investments to raise cash.

IMO the Fed will try to reflate the dollar AFTER the deflation has hit main street and a number of smaller banks are gobbled up by the big ones.

The big question in my mind is will we get through the deflation peacefully?
After 8 years of Bush, the war and the financial crisis, confidence in government has been eroded. What will main street's reaction be when the bailout saves Wall Street but does nothing for the average Joe?

What happens when the Fed comes clean and asks for another Trillion?
Then all bets are off....

[WCR]

I don't know if you can help me but here's my question. I have about $1100 in credit card debt right now, and I have about $2000 on hand. Now should I pay off every credit card atm, and just keep with $900 and not use the credit cards? Or should I just make an above average minimum payment until a crash and pay off the debt on maybe 10 to 25 cents on the dollar? Or can it go another way, with a credit fall, and the interest rate rises and I don't have enough?

Any help?

[Falseflagop]

Larry great advice, just got back home.


As to gold I bet you mean PHYISCAL as opposed to paper, see the disconnect in the two markets this is because imho CENTRAL BANK trying ot steal the gold cheap! ETF imho are a fraud

[Arklatex]

WCR, pay off the credit card debt. That is 'bad debt'

[Anti Federalist]

Boom - and there you have it.

Well done Larry!

[Anti Federalist]

Agree. Food more important than gold. But, gold is money in every country in the world. Some of them will have food. Gold will be good to exchange for food.

Money is nothing more than a claim on productive capacity. Having the capacity would be the first goal. But capacity is not easily moved. Gold is.

I think gold could be worth 2-100x its present value in terms of real purchasing power if the entire world decides that paper money is crap. There is not enough gold in the world compared to productive capacity and the government has illegally suppressed its price.

Exactly.

I've been countering this argument quite a bit lately. Very true: you can't eat gold, but if you have any substantial worth, you can't plant it in the ground either.

Physical possession of PMs is not an "investment" in the way most understand it, it is simply a hedge to protect worth and have it remain relatively liquid and not subject to devaluation and hyperinflation.

[Mahkato]

Dang. It is SO FREAKING HARD to bite the bullet and cash out my retirement accounts (taking a heavy hit on the penalties and taxes) but I am worried that I need to do this now or lose it all.

STUPID FREAKING FEDERAL RESERVE SCREWING UP MY LIFE! Argh.

Pirates, the lot of them.

[Anti Federalist]

Dang. It is SO FREAKING HARD to bite the bullet and cash out my retirement accounts (taking a heavy hit on the penalties and taxes) but I am worried that I need to do this now or lose it all.

STUPID FREAKING FEDERAL RESERVE SCREWING UP MY LIFE! Argh.

Pirates, the lot of them.

There's no easy answers that's for sure.

While not perfect, consider moving it into a "cash preservation" option within your IRA or 401k. At least it's insured, until the FDIC's wheels come off anyway. Most 401k plans won't allow you to cash out an account.

[Arklatex]

Dang. It is SO FREAKING HARD to bite the bullet and cash out my retirement accounts (taking a heavy hit on the penalties and taxes) but I am worried that I need to do this now or lose it all.


What kind of retirement account are we talking? Maybe you can diversify it, you can buy physical Gold through an IRA.

Don't put all your eggs in one basket, we might be wrong and the economy sky rockets from here on out. Doubtful but it's possible.

Invest in happiness, food, guns, your family, your garden, your house and BJ Lawson for congress please: http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/splash/?s0701

[The Good Doctor]

I think he means "keeping up with payments".


Larry, thanks for your advice. Could you clarify what you mean when you say "5. I would not pay off any debt if I could be sure to service it. I will repay it with worthless future dollars." Specifically, what do you mean when you say "could be sure to service it"? Thanks for all you do.

[The Good Doctor]

Yeah that is my problem. I have a 401k with two different cash preservation options.

One says this language:

seeks preservation of capital, liquidity, and, consistent with these objectives, the highest possible current income by investing in high-quality U.S. dollar-denominated money market securities issued in the U.S. and abroad. The fund is managed to maintain a constant share price of $1.00. An investment in this fund is not insured or guaranteed by the FDIC or any other government agency. Although the fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the fund.

The other has this language:

This one was just added last week to our 401k btw.

seeks to maximize stability of capital, liquidity, and the highest available current income by investing in short term US Treasury obligations and repurchase agreements collateralized by such obligations. It is a money market trust that seeks to maintain a stable unit price of one dollar, although the price is not guaranteed or insured by the FDIC, any other government agency, or T. Rowe Price Trust Company. The Trust may be suitable for participants seeking the potential for maximum safety and the highest level of current income available through such investments.

So what the hell am I to do? They aren't guaranteed or insured by the FDIC etc. as listed above? My only other options are mutual funds, bonds, and my company's stock. Am I totally screwed? I can't sell it because I still work at the company as per T. Rowe Price when I called them on the phone Friday.

Larry says get out of all of those. So, now I have no idea what to do. Do I have any protection at all for my money then in my 401k?



There's no easy answers that's for sure.

While not perfect, consider moving it into a "cash preservation" option within your IRA or 401k. At least it's insured, until the FDIC's wheels come off anyway. Most 401k plans won't allow you to cash out an account.

[raiha]

Great advice Larry...had to give it to my sis as shes the one with the money...had..she may have to be foreclosed.:eek:
First redundancy and then foreclosure...hard when you have an autistic son.

In the meantime, my grandson and i went panning for gold yesterday. There's gold in them thar hills. We got some too. We got the fools gold, but also the real gold... a few flecks but you can't mistake it.And there are semi precious crystals, green jasper,amethyst....quartz crystal. Its a magical valley we are in. This whole town was built on gold mining. Old mine shafts around.
But the prospecting licenses cost so much even the multinational company Amax (one of the filthy five when it comes to clean-up time) couldn't afford to go in.

[gilliganscorner]

I disagree with this statement. If the dollar is worthless, what good is exchanging metals for dollars? Better to have the means to grow food. Everyone will be willing to trade for food when food is scarce. You can't eat metals.

The means to grow food includes: (a) land with good soil, sufficient rain and/or ability to irrigate; (b) seeds that will produce plants with fertile seed; (c) knowledge and skill to produce your crops without the aid of agricultural chemicals; and (d) the right tools to work the land.

This is a common question that I get defending the gold standard to fiat.

In any Financial Armageddon, people argue that gold and silver are useless as money. ANY money is worthless if no one will accept in a trade.

Here's what you need to consider. What happens BEFORE the collapse? Is inflation running at 20% year (some say we are now)? What if it were 20% month? 100% per month? 1000% per month? Zimbabwe? What if the value of your dollar is hanging in the sky like bricks don't? The price of gold and silver is skyrocketing? This would condition people's psyches to re-awaken the fact that gold and silver is REAL money.

THAT is why it matters.

The point is before that time, none of us will accept cash, or if we DO accept it, we would never be so insane to keep it in our pockets/wallets/purses for long. We would seek to spend it as fast as we could. The person who accepted from you would do the same. And so on, and so on. Think of it like a deadly game of "hot potato".

However, those who trade with gold and silver wouldn't have to worry about a printing press (i.e. the State/Banking cartel) devaluing their Federal Reserve Points (hey, calling a point is just as good as calling it a "dollar" - an arbitrary that has no objective measurement).

My personal advice is to begin to acquire gold and silver AND build your networks of people that are willing to trade their goods and services with each other. You need to build a "counter-economy" (agorist) (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=153542) outside of the "red market" we all are enslaved to.

Hell, even if the State does not collapse :rolleyes: you could still run your networks with each other trading outside of the taxation/inflation system we currently are matrixed into. Imagine where you could work part-time (you would still need Federal Reserve Points to pay off taxes and things not available in the agorist network, until new members boarded offering what was missing) where you did not have 40-50% of your income stolen by taxation and 10-20% stolen by inflation. It is STILL a worthwhile endeavor.

My debased two cents.

[itshappening]

the Gold price is manipulated by central banks who hold large reserves and can affect the market, we need to look at other tangible assets like platinum, palladium, ore and such things that they cannot (or do not) manipulate. think about it

governments can also confiscate gold as a US president once did

[gilliganscorner]

the Gold price is manipulated by central banks who hold large reserves and can affect the market, we need to look at other tangible assets like platinum, palladium, ore and such things that they cannot (or do not) manipulate. think about it

governments can also confiscate gold as a US president once did

If it is being manipulated downward that means the central banks are selling. It isn't the mines that are adding to the supply. Go to gata.org and look at their research and come to your own conclusions.

If you think it is being manipulated downward, shouldn't you be buying it?

[itshappening]

If it is being manipulated downward that means the central banks are selling. It isn't the mines that are adding to the supply. Go to gata.org and look at their research and come to your own conclusions.

If you think it is being manipulated downward, shouldn't you be buying it?

people should buy it YES but they should also buy stuff the banks dont buy because they do hoard a lot of gold and sell to each to other, they 'fix' the spot price daily in London, this is FACT. of course, it would little matter in an armeggedon and over the long term they will fail but in the medium term your investment could be subjected to evil bankers degrading it

[RonPaulCentral]

governments can also confiscate gold as a US president once did

It had limited success the first time around. If they tried to pull that nonsense again I doubt many would participate. This time offshore storage is also a much bigger factor.

I also think that is the govt tries a gun grab here very few will participate. I know a number of people (retired police & military included) that say (and I totally believe them as I honestly feel the same way) that if they come for them that the only way they will get them is after one hell of a firefight and them stepping over them to take the cache.

[freelance]

There's no easy answers that's for sure.

While not perfect, consider moving it into a "cash preservation" option within your IRA or 401k. At least it's insured, until the FDIC's wheels come off anyway. Most 401k plans won't allow you to cash out an account.

Do they still allow the "loan" option? Would that work?

[llepard]

Thanks Lepard.

One question: How do you feel about silver, as opposed to gold, for someone with limited capital for PMs. The main reason I've been buying silver lately is because the premiums for smaller quantities of gold is enormous. I've been getting good deals on silver lately.

Thanks for the great advice.

I like silver a lot. It is poor man's gold. It is more volatile than gold. It gets consumed and so there is an "industrial demand" component to it.

It is big and bulky. $200k of silver is about the size of a small car. Tough to put in a suitcase and skeddadle with. $200k of gold can be put in a woman's purse.

It is harder to find today. Most coin dealers cannot get it. So, it may have more upside than gold.

Gold is more universally recognized, but silver is a close second.

[manny229]

I like silver a lot. It is poor man's gold. It is more volatile than gold. It gets consumed and so there is an "industrial demand" component to it.

It is big and bulky. $200k of silver is about the size of a small car. Tough to put in a suitcase and skeddadle with. $200k of gold can be put in a woman's purse.

It is harder to find today. Most coin dealers cannot get it. So, it may have more upside than gold.

Gold is more universally recognized, but silver is a close second.

Hello Llepard;

What do you think about owning GLD or SLV, in addition to the physical metals?

Thanks

[llepard]

Hello Llepard;

What do you think about owning GLD or SLV, in addition to the physical metals?

Thanks

A poor second choice. CEF is better.

The issue is, do they have the gold and silver they claim?

Do they own derivatives? Is there counterparty risk?

I do not know the answer. But if the financial system fails owning these will not protect you in the same way that having the physical metal in your possession will. What good will it be to make a gain on GLD and SLV if you cannot get your money out of your broker because they are bankrupt.?

That is the issue.

[Anti Federalist]

The Good Doctor asked:


So what the hell am I to do? They aren't guaranteed or insured by the FDIC etc. as listed above? My only other options are mutual funds, bonds, and my company's stock. Am I totally screwed? I can't sell it because I still work at the company as per T. Rowe Price when I called them on the phone Friday.

Larry says get out of all of those. So, now I have no idea what to do. Do I have any protection at all for my money then in my 401k?

Neither one of those options look all that great, in my opinion.

I held a meeting for the crew of my ship as all this was unfolding. Within our company's 401k plan there is an option to sell off all the mutuals, individual and/or company shares and move the proceeds into an insured "cash preservation" account, basically a (relatively) high interest money market account.

It sounds like that option is not open to you.

I wish I could give you more information, unlike Larry, I am certainly no financial manager or advisor, and in no position to give financial advice based on being in the "business". I'm just an ol' Merchant Marine captain. But I had 14 men freaking out about this, and the level of knowledge was abysmal amongst them, so I figured I better get smart, quick and try to help out as best I could. I'm not even in the 401k plan at my work, since I saw this coming years ago, and for the piddly little 6% of matching, it wasn't worth the grief and went in other directions with my money.

So, to answer your question, look again for that insured cash option within the plan and move into that if you can. If not, consider rolling some or all of it into a self directed IRA, and then move into an insured position.

[MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2]

5. I would not pay off any debt if I could be sure to service it. I will repay it with worthless future dollars.



^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Yeah, that. I'm glad to see that on the list because it runs counter to what almost everyone says. Most say "pay off debt now." I say pay it off later after massive inflation. Of course, things can get so bad, that's not an option.

[LibertyEagle]

Llepard,

Jim Sinclair has been recommending for a long time, to get your stocks, etc. out of "street name" at your broker and get them registered with the transfer agent, or even better, get the stock certificate.

What are your thoughts on this?

[llepard]

Llepard,

Jim Sinclair has been recommending for a long time, to get your stocks, etc. out of "street name" at your broker and get them registered with the transfer agent, or even better, get the stock certificate.

What are your thoughts on this?

Agree strongly. It will be an issue.

However, I basically do not own any stocks (except a few small gold miners).

Brokers can and will fail. If you have stocks you do not want to sell I would get the certificates.

[Ozwest]

llepard,

To my left, on my wall, pride of place I have a copy of your beautifully written " An Open Letter to the American People."

I was sent the Newspaper.

Aussies come to my house. You have made a difference.

Respect.

[Bradley in DC]

If you have an account overseas that is more than $10k you must report it or you are committing a felony.

Thanks. I would add that the $10k figure is for one account or an aggregate total of different accounts.

[tod evans]

llepard,
i don`t own "liquid" assets such as stocks-n-bonds, what i do own is a 100% paid for building, the property it sits on and the business they house.
my business is custom woodworking and my cliental to date have been fairly well to do.....i fully realize that the purse strings are tightening among that crowd but my question for you is if you think i am wise to retain ownership of my property and equipment?
thanks, tod

[Ozwest]

I'm not a financial genius, but 14 months ago I withdrew all my Superannuation, and 90 percent of my shares.

I am pissed off about leaving 10 percent in the stock market.

It is slaughtering my PROFIT margin.

Twenty percent of my assets are going into gold.

I never make purchases oner 10,000.

Life is a circle.

[Bossobass]

Dang. It is SO FREAKING HARD to bite the bullet and cash out my retirement accounts (taking a heavy hit on the penalties and taxes) but I am worried that I need to do this now or lose it all.

STUPID FREAKING FEDERAL RESERVE SCREWING UP MY LIFE! Argh.

Pirates, the lot of them.

You might consider that the tax burden in this country will no doubt skyrocket along with the unprecedented increase in deficit spending.

Though it may seem a heavy hit now, it will most probably be a much heavier hit later.

There are 499 pages to this Bailout Bill. I haven't read and digested all of it yet, but terms like 'Acceleration of Effective Date' for 'Zero Reserve Requirement' and 'IRS' raise my flags.

All things considered, I agree with Lepard's thoughts. Cash, silver, gold, food...IN HAND beats zero on paper.

Only a complete lunatic would trust any of these financial institutions or Congress after the fiasco we've witnessed over the last 8 years.

Just my wild guess opinion, FWIW.

Bosso

[Anti Federalist]

Bosso wrote:


There are 499 pages to this Bailout Bill. I haven't read and digested all of it yet, but terms like 'Acceleration of Effective Date' for 'Zero Reserve Requirement' and 'IRS' raise my flags.

You already picked out a couple of gems, like the zero reserve requirement.

I'm reading it section by section right now, and it's making my eyes cross.

http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h110-1424

TITLE IV--EXTENSION OF TAX ADMINISTRATION PROVISIONS
SEC. 401. PERMANENT AUTHORITY FOR UNDERCOVER OPERATIONS.
(a) In General- Section 7608(c) (relating to rules relating to undercover operations) is amended by striking paragraph (6).
(b) Effective Date- The amendment made by this section shall apply to operations conducted after the date of the enactment of this Act.
SEC. 402. PERMANENT AUTHORITY FOR DISCLOSURE OF INFORMATION RELATING TO TERRORIST ACTIVITIES.
(a) Disclosure of Return Information To Apprise Appropriate Officials of Terrorist Activities- Subparagraph (C) of section 6103(i)(3) is amended by striking clause (iv).
(b) Disclosure Upon Request of Information Relating to Terrorist Activities- Paragraph (7) of section 6103(i) is amended by striking subparagraph (E).
(c) Effective Date- The amendments made by this section shall apply to disclosures after the date of the enactment of this Act.

[The Good Doctor]

Do most company 401k plans allow a self directed IRA? God I hope mine does!


The Good Doctor asked:



Neither one of those options look all that great, in my opinion.

I held a meeting for the crew of my ship as all this was unfolding. Within our company's 401k plan there is an option to sell off all the mutuals, individual and/or company shares and move the proceeds into an insured "cash preservation" account, basically a (relatively) high interest money market account.

It sounds like that option is not open to you.

I wish I could give you more information, unlike Larry, I am certainly no financial manager or advisor, and in no position to give financial advice based on being in the "business". I'm just an ol' Merchant Marine captain. But I had 14 men freaking out about this, and the level of knowledge was abysmal amongst them, so I figured I better get smart, quick and try to help out as best I could. I'm not even in the 401k plan at my work, since I saw this coming years ago, and for the piddly little 6% of matching, it wasn't worth the grief and went in other directions with my money.

So, to answer your question, look again for that insured cash option within the plan and move into that if you can. If not, consider rolling some or all of it into a self directed IRA, and then move into an insured position.

[Lord Xar]

so, if someone had 50k worth of 'things' -- you'd liquidate everything and do the following? Please correct my percentages, if necessary and add what you can.

after removing and consolidating: 50k cash.

--> 20% stays in Bank
--> 40% stays stowed at home (living expensies) or 6 months worth.
--> 40% is used to purchase gold/silver

Is that about right?

I have some cash and haven't pulled the trigger on anything.

[RJB]

You will become human refuse begging for food and forced to punk yourself.

Sorry.

OK. I do have a food and water supply and guns and all the other preps and a little income. I was just asking if at this time income should go to continuing to buy food for the pantry or to pay off the student loan debt.

[daviddee]

...

[RJB]

Get politically involved, you chump. :)

WTF do you think I'm doing!?

Seriously, there are a good portion of people in the job market with high student loan debts. I do plan on paying it off, but getting started in the real world now is rough. I am prepared for hard times as far as the pantry and defense goes, but I'm still in debt hole.

[RJB]

Make the minimum payments on your debt.

You do not want to destroy your financial future/credit based on an assumption the world is about to implode. There are a lot of bunkers in the USA built by people who took it to an extreme and thought the Soviets were going to nuke us.

You need to interpret Lepards post as what you need to do during a financial "transition". He is not referring to MadMax gas wars the world is going to end.

So make the minimum payments until there is clarity on this situation.

For those of us that have the means, and are prepared, this situation has the potential of eliminating our debt. Why? Let's say the dollar is destroyed and an ounce of gold can be be sold for a wheel barrow of dollars. We can then take that wheel barrow down to whoever holds our mortgages and say, "I would like to make a payment".

My concern is for the people who live in cities and places that get a real winter. Cities will breakdown quickly and it is not a wise place to be. Places that get real winter are going to have great problems because of the heating fuel issue.

Do not let fear own you and do not assume this is the end of the world. Some people read sage advice and assume it means this is the end of man... it is not... it is a bump in the road that does require some preparation.

-dd Thanks.That's what I'm doing. The deferment goes to Dec of this year and I'm on my feet enough to start payments.


P.S. Buy some "hot pants"... all good street hustlers need some ;)Fuck off:)

[MsDoodahs]

RJB, check the reset of the rate.

If your rate on the student loan is fixed and another deferrment will NOT allow them to increase the rate, then by all means defer it as long as possible.

In this environment, cash in YOUR hand is better than cash in THEIR hands.

Only if a deferrment allows them to aggressively reset rates would it make sense NOT to keep deferring it.

If you can't defer it further, pay minimums.

Hope that helps...

MsD

[RJB]

If you can't defer it further, pay minimums.

Hope that helps...

MsD

Thanks. Your advice has been the most helpful yet.
RJ

[The Good Doctor]

Ok if the money market funds in my 401k or my 401k are not insured by the FDIC what should I do? I don't think either the mutual funds or money market funds are insured by the FDIC.

Take the risk of moving my mutual funds into the money market funds in hopes that the dollar won't collapse and I can preserve my cash?

Or if I ride it out I could lose a lot in mutual funds?

It's like I am stuck. Watch my money drop in the mutual funds or convert to a money market fund and pray that the doesn't collapse since it isn't guaranteed either.

What does the SIPC do? I saw that at the bottom of the web site that T. Rowe Price was a member of FINRA/SIPC? What does that mean?

In other words, I have no protection at all. None. How can that be? T. Rowe Price isn't likely to fail since it is actually in great shape overall.

If the shit really hits the fan, then a lot of people could lose their retirements anyway. What a joke! :mad:

[wgadget]

Well, one thing you could do: Either quit your job or get fired, and then you'll have the freedom to roll it over into an IRA.

Someone else also mentioned something thatI personally would look into: Peter Schiff's management company, EuroPacific Capital. I have his book "Crash Proof," and he suggests buying into foreign stocks in countries that are less likely to suffer from hyperinflation of the dollar. Of course he recommends shifting your money to his company...which I would do in a heartbeat. Gotta get hubby on board, though.

http://www.europac.net/

[constitutional]

I see you recommended to have cash on hand. What happens when hyperinflation kicks in? Your fiat dollar just devalued... right?

[wgadget]

With cash in hand, you can purchase a lot of things at bargain prices during the deflation period. And when and if we get to a period of hyperinflation, that will be your signal to get rid of the dollars as quickly as possible by buying up anything that you might still need for your survival kit.

[Ozwest]

I see you recommended to have cash on hand. What happens when hyperinflation kicks in? Your fiat dollar just devalued... right?

No easy answers.

I have eliminated all debt.

Have 20% in Gold.

The rest easy access.

I dumped my Superannuation and portfolio 14 months ago.

Thank you Dr. Paul for the sound financial advice!

[Ozwest]

With cash in hand, you can purchase a lot of things at bargain prices during the deflation period. And when and if we get to a period of hyperinflation, that will be your signal to get rid of the dollars as quickly as possible by buying up anything that you might still need for your survival kit.

Hold on to your money for a few months and invest in Real Estate.

[constitutional]

Hold on to your money for a few months and invest in Real Estate.

Explain why in real estate.

Thanks.

[Ozwest]

Explain why in real estate.

Thanks.

It is shameful to say, as others are suffering, but I reckon Real Estate is the best investment - long term, if you are liquid.

Buy property in 12-16 months.

The true signaller of economic recovery, will be a upturn in demand for housing.

[The Good Doctor]

Well, yeah but I love my job and I want to still work there. I mean they can't hold us completely over the barrel can they? I was going to try and cash out but can't.


Well, one thing you could do: Either quit your job or get fired, and then you'll have the freedom to roll it over into an IRA.

Someone else also mentioned something thatI personally would look into: Peter Schiff's management company, EuroPacific Capital. I have his book "Crash Proof," and he suggests buying into foreign stocks in countries that are less likely to suffer from hyperinflation of the dollar. Of course he recommends shifting your money to his company...which I would do in a heartbeat. Gotta get hubby on board, though.

http://www.europac.net/

[wgadget]

Yeah...Well, it was meant to be tongue-in-cheek. But I forgot to put the :rolleyes:

[The Good Doctor]

So, anyone have any other ideas? :(


Ok if the money market funds in my 401k or my 401k are not insured by the FDIC what should I do? I don't think either the mutual funds or money market funds are insured by the FDIC.

Take the risk of moving my mutual funds into the money market funds in hopes that the dollar won't collapse and I can preserve my cash?

Or if I ride it out I could lose a lot in mutual funds?

It's like I am stuck. Watch my money drop in the mutual funds or convert to a money market fund and pray that the doesn't collapse since it isn't guaranteed either.

What does the SIPC do? I saw that at the bottom of the web site that T. Rowe Price was a member of FINRA/SIPC? What does that mean?

In other words, I have no protection at all. None. How can that be? T. Rowe Price isn't likely to fail since it is actually in great shape overall.

If the shit really hits the fan, then a lot of people could lose their retirements anyway. What a joke! :mad:

[gilliganscorner]

This is a common question that I get defending the gold standard to fiat.

In any Financial Armageddon, people argue that gold and silver are useless as money. ANY money is worthless if no one will accept in a trade.

Here's what you need to consider. What happens BEFORE the collapse? Is inflation running at 20% year (some say we are now)? What if it were 20% month? 100% per month? 1000% per month? Zimbabwe? What if the value of your dollar is hanging in the sky like bricks don't? The price of gold and silver is skyrocketing? This would condition people's psyches to re-awaken the fact that gold and silver is REAL money.

THAT is why it matters.

The point is before that time, none of us will accept cash, or if we DO accept it, we would never be so insane to keep it in our pockets/wallets/purses for long. We would seek to spend it as fast as we could. The person who accepted from you would do the same. And so on, and so on. Think of it like a deadly game of "hot potato".

However, those who trade with gold and silver wouldn't have to worry about a printing press (i.e. the State/Banking cartel) devaluing their Federal Reserve Points (hey, calling a point is just as good as calling it a "dollar" - an arbitrary that has no objective measurement).

My personal advice is to begin to acquire gold and silver AND build your networks of people that are willing to trade their goods and services with each other. You need to build a "counter-economy" (agorist) (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=153542) outside of the "red market" we all are enslaved to.

Hell, even if the State does not collapse :rolleyes: you could still run your networks with each other trading outside of the taxation/inflation system we currently are matrixed into. Imagine where you could work part-time (you would still need Federal Reserve Points to pay off taxes and things not available in the agorist network, until new members boarded offering what was missing) where you did not have 40-50% of your income stolen by taxation and 10-20% stolen by inflation. It is STILL a worthwhile endeavor.

My debased two cents.

And no one has any thoughts about this?

[Ozwest]

Go to ebay, and type in: Gold Bullion.

Now, tell me there isn't a demand for your precious metals.

[Anti Federalist]

11 trillion dollar debt bump

[Arklatex]

bump gould (http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ssPageName=STRK:MESELX:IT&item=160293097497)


this thread deserves an http://bullion.nwtmint.com/images/gold_mapleleaf_rev.jpg