UziSprayTF
10-02-2008, 09:44 AM
Hi everyone, it has been a long time since I've posted.
First off let me thank all of you that contacted your congressmen in opposition of the bailout. I would have done so, but I am Canadian.
Now, the reason for this post:
Over the past 4 months I have come to believe there is no way out of the coming collapse.
During Ron Paul's campaign I had calculated when I thought the American economy would completely collapse. I estimated that it would be between 10 and 20 years, mostly dependent on when the baby boomers retired and on how much SS, Medicare, etc... (I assumed these would be marginally scaled back). I was attempting to do so to prove to my friends that Ron Paul was needed NOW to stop all this calamity from happening. I had made fairly conservative assumptions (I assumed that the US would have a negligible deficit after GWB left office, that no new cash in cash out medical/retirement programs would take place, that no new wars would be waged, that the US bond rating would remain the same, etc...)
What I would like to do is to redo my original spreadsheet to give a more accurate approximation of when this crash will happen. This time around I will be much less optimistic and will include (with history as a guide) degrading the US bond rating after certain debt thresholds, the possibility of Obama's healthcare plan actually going through, leave allowance for future military conflicts if the GOP wins, allow for deficits, and any other things you good people at the RPFs think I’ve missed. I also really want to include the burden individual states will be placing on the public.
Some of my main questions would be the following:
--1--
Where can I find information on individual States debt? In Canada a good portion of the debt held by governments is not just the national boys, but also the provincial governments. I tried simple google searches, and I have "walked" through wikipedia, but have been unable to find good resources.
--2--
Are there any future obligations that State governments make? Something like Medicaid, but for just the state of California.
--3--
Is there a good resource to determine how China/Japan would react given a 60% drop in the USD? Obviously the international markets would start to dump the dollar and debt instruments, unless the yield went up, but since these calculations are heavily dependent on the interest rate (especially for net present value calculations) I would really like to know by how much it will change.
My timeline for looking into this is 20 years. This is for a few reasons. First, it is the outside limit I originally calculated back in 2007. Second, it is the outside timeline Jim Rogers gives for the US central bank to implode. Third, it is as far as I could comfortably stretch the foreseeable future.
Of course I would make my findings (and spreadsheet) known to the Ron Paul crowd.
I have given up trying to save Canada/America from the 2nd great depression. Canada is getting a little better on the economic front, but 1/3 of our GDP is in exports and 80% of those go to the USA, so either way I see the States taking us down with them. These findings will be used by to gauge when I should run from civilization.
Right now I'm loading up on silver (silver has much more potential than gold, PM me if you want some information on why) and getting ready to build a hermit house in mid-northern Canada. I should be far from the reaches of the coming police states and hopefully I will have enough stores, fish and game to survive. I am a structural engineer by training, but I’m probably entering marketing analytics in the near future.
$
Thank you very much for your help.
First off let me thank all of you that contacted your congressmen in opposition of the bailout. I would have done so, but I am Canadian.
Now, the reason for this post:
Over the past 4 months I have come to believe there is no way out of the coming collapse.
During Ron Paul's campaign I had calculated when I thought the American economy would completely collapse. I estimated that it would be between 10 and 20 years, mostly dependent on when the baby boomers retired and on how much SS, Medicare, etc... (I assumed these would be marginally scaled back). I was attempting to do so to prove to my friends that Ron Paul was needed NOW to stop all this calamity from happening. I had made fairly conservative assumptions (I assumed that the US would have a negligible deficit after GWB left office, that no new cash in cash out medical/retirement programs would take place, that no new wars would be waged, that the US bond rating would remain the same, etc...)
What I would like to do is to redo my original spreadsheet to give a more accurate approximation of when this crash will happen. This time around I will be much less optimistic and will include (with history as a guide) degrading the US bond rating after certain debt thresholds, the possibility of Obama's healthcare plan actually going through, leave allowance for future military conflicts if the GOP wins, allow for deficits, and any other things you good people at the RPFs think I’ve missed. I also really want to include the burden individual states will be placing on the public.
Some of my main questions would be the following:
--1--
Where can I find information on individual States debt? In Canada a good portion of the debt held by governments is not just the national boys, but also the provincial governments. I tried simple google searches, and I have "walked" through wikipedia, but have been unable to find good resources.
--2--
Are there any future obligations that State governments make? Something like Medicaid, but for just the state of California.
--3--
Is there a good resource to determine how China/Japan would react given a 60% drop in the USD? Obviously the international markets would start to dump the dollar and debt instruments, unless the yield went up, but since these calculations are heavily dependent on the interest rate (especially for net present value calculations) I would really like to know by how much it will change.
My timeline for looking into this is 20 years. This is for a few reasons. First, it is the outside limit I originally calculated back in 2007. Second, it is the outside timeline Jim Rogers gives for the US central bank to implode. Third, it is as far as I could comfortably stretch the foreseeable future.
Of course I would make my findings (and spreadsheet) known to the Ron Paul crowd.
I have given up trying to save Canada/America from the 2nd great depression. Canada is getting a little better on the economic front, but 1/3 of our GDP is in exports and 80% of those go to the USA, so either way I see the States taking us down with them. These findings will be used by to gauge when I should run from civilization.
Right now I'm loading up on silver (silver has much more potential than gold, PM me if you want some information on why) and getting ready to build a hermit house in mid-northern Canada. I should be far from the reaches of the coming police states and hopefully I will have enough stores, fish and game to survive. I am a structural engineer by training, but I’m probably entering marketing analytics in the near future.
$
Thank you very much for your help.