Bradley in DC
09-30-2008, 10:57 PM
http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1074a2PostDebate.pdf
My analysis:
In the latest apples-to-apples comparison, Barr and Nader both gained 1 point from the same poll a week earlier. Oddly, Barr, Nader AND McCain all gained at the expense of Obama (I don't know why). Nader does better with registered voters than with likely voters: I think his name ID is higher and that the Barr supporters are more committed than the Nader ones are.
4. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If the 2008 presidential election were being
held today and the candidates were {(Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the
Democrats), (John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans)}, {(Bob Barr and
Wayne Allen Root, the Libertarian Party candidates), and (Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzales, as independent candidates)}, for whom would you vote?
NET LEANED VOTE - LIKELY VOTERS
Other None Would not No
Obama McCain Barr Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
9/29/08 48 45 2 3 * 1 0 1
9/22/08 51 43 1 2 * * 0 3
8/22/08 48 42 3 3 1 1 * 2
7/13/08 49 43 2 4 * 1 0 2
NET LEANED VOTE - REGISTERED VOTERS
Other None Would not No
Obama McCain Barr Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
9/29/08 48 43 2 4 * 1 1 2
9/22/08 51 41 1 3 * * 1 4
8/22/08 47 40 4 4 1 1 1 3
7/13/08 49 39 2 5 1 2 1 2
My analysis:
In the latest apples-to-apples comparison, Barr and Nader both gained 1 point from the same poll a week earlier. Oddly, Barr, Nader AND McCain all gained at the expense of Obama (I don't know why). Nader does better with registered voters than with likely voters: I think his name ID is higher and that the Barr supporters are more committed than the Nader ones are.
4. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If the 2008 presidential election were being
held today and the candidates were {(Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the
Democrats), (John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans)}, {(Bob Barr and
Wayne Allen Root, the Libertarian Party candidates), and (Ralph Nader and Matt Gonzales, as independent candidates)}, for whom would you vote?
NET LEANED VOTE - LIKELY VOTERS
Other None Would not No
Obama McCain Barr Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
9/29/08 48 45 2 3 * 1 0 1
9/22/08 51 43 1 2 * * 0 3
8/22/08 48 42 3 3 1 1 * 2
7/13/08 49 43 2 4 * 1 0 2
NET LEANED VOTE - REGISTERED VOTERS
Other None Would not No
Obama McCain Barr Nader (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opinion
9/29/08 48 43 2 4 * 1 1 2
9/22/08 51 41 1 3 * * 1 4
8/22/08 47 40 4 4 1 1 1 3
7/13/08 49 39 2 5 1 2 1 2