An open letter to Brian Barid-Your pink slip is here

[erin moore]

An open video-letter to My congressman who voted YES. Help us get this Noticed and gain visibility for the RP candidate running to replace him (his only opponent) Michael Delavar.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnL9CAAsiOQ

[libertarian4321]

An open video-letter to My congressman who voted YES. Help us get this Noticed and gain visibility for the RP candidate running to replace him (his only opponent) Michael Delavar.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnL9CAAsiOQ


I hate to keep doing this, but you folks need to know that most congressional races (~80%) are simply NOT RACES due to Gerrymandering- they are "one party rule" districts- that all the "diggs" and youtube videos in the world will make no difference.

A Republican with ~$13,000 is not going to knock off an incumbent Democrat with ~$1,000,000 cash on hand (as of last quarter) in a district that routinely votes 62-65% Dem.

About the only way Baird would lose this race is if he killed someone- and it'd take more than just an accusation, you'd probably need a photo of him standing over the body with a bloody knife...

We need to focus on races that are winnable- those where the challenger has at least some shot at winning.

[tomveil]

I hate to keep doing this, but you folks need to know that most congressional races (~80%) are simply NOT RACES due to Gerrymandering- they are "one party rule" districts- that all the "diggs" and youtube videos in the world will make no difference.

A Republican with ~$13,000 is not going to knock off an incumbent Democrat with ~$1,000,000 cash on hand (as of last quarter) in a district that routinely votes 62-65% Dem.

About the only way Baird would lose this race is if he killed someone- and it'd take more than just an accusation, you'd probably need a photo of him standing over the body with a bloody knife...

We need to focus on races that are winnable- those where the challenger has at least some shot at winning.

Being IN this district and talking TO the people here, I can confidently that you have no idea what you're talking about and should shut the hell up.

Great video, OP.

[tomveil]

Also, OP are you connected with the campaign for materials and such? PM me if you need anything!

[erin moore]

Do you know anything about Brian Braid? About his flip-flopping on the Iraq war in this staunchly anti-war district? He is despised for it.

People are fed up with him. Does Delavar have a chance? Maybe, a slight one. But you've got to be KIDDING if you're suggesting that every American with a RP candidate in the own DISTRICT should ignore them unless its an obvious win.

Be serious. I support candidates with better chances. We sent money to BJ. Am I going to knock on doors for him from Olympia though? No? So why should I sit on my butt here when I've got a great candidate to support?

Because its not an obvious win? Please.

Michael is a great candidate and I feel SO lucky to have moved into the state and this district just in time to re-register here and I don't have to hold my nose and vote for Brett Gutherie of Kentucky's 2nd district.

Some people..... man.

[erin moore]

Also, OP are you connected with the campaign for materials and such? PM me if you need anything!

No. I've been wanting to go to some meetings but we're very new to the area and Vancouver is quite a haul from here, especially on school nights (kid).

I am very interested in materials though. And hopefully we are going to get linked up with some of you guys in person soon.

[tomveil]

Do you know anything about Brian Braid? About his flip-flopping on the Iraq war in this staunchly anti-war district? He is despised for it.

People are fed up with him. Does Delavar have a chance? Maybe, a slight one. But you've got to be KIDDING if you're suggesting that every American with a RP candidate in the own DISTRICT should ignore them unless its an obvious win.

Be serious. I support candidates with better chances. We sent money to BJ. Am I going to knock on doors for him from Olympia though? No? So why should I sit on my butt here when I've got a great candidate to support?

Because its not an obvious win? Please.

Michael is a great candidate and I feel SO lucky to have moved into the state and this district just in time to re-register here and I don't have to hold my nose and vote for Brett Gutherie of Kentucky's 2nd district.

Some people..... man.

:D Thanks for making my night! With Iraq, Patriot Act, FISA, and this bailout, he's angering more and more people. The local GOP has been despicable, but what's new? Voters are receptive to the message.

And not to blame anybody here because I know money is tight, but the fund raising has been....disappointing to say the least. I true Ron Paul Republican, running against an unpopular incumbent, and who already defeated the GOP shill they ran against him. RUNNING FOR THE US HOUSE! Maybe YOU, libertarian4321, know of HUNDREDS of Ron Paul Republicans who are a heartbeat away from joining Dr. Paul in Washington. But from where I'm sitting, there's only a couple. So don't go around talking about our CHANCES. The fact is that Michael is one of the best CHANCES we have to make a difference in this election cycle.

[libertarian4321]

Being IN this district and talking TO the people here, I can confidently that you have no idea what you're talking about and should shut the hell up.

Great video, OP.

Would you care to put money on it? How about a donation to the charity of the winners choice?

The ONLY way a Dem incumbent is going to lose a heavily Dem district is if either 1) the Republican vastly outspends him (not going to happen, the Republican candidate has no money and the Democrat has gobs of cash) or 2) the Dem is involved in a MAJOR scandal- I made a joke about "murder" before, but it wasn't completely a joke- it'd have to be a scandal of earth shattering proportions.

So, unless Baird gets caught having sex with a 6-year old, and you have it on film, or unless you cut the Republican a $2,000,000 check, this race is a stone cold lock for the incumbent.

Bluster is one thing, but we need to focus on reality. Most races in this country are NOT competitive because of Gerrymandering (look it up if you don't know what it means- its a huge reason many Americans correctly think their vote doesn't matter). We need to focus our efforts on races that can be won.

If you want to make videos or "digg" something, fine as long as you realize it won't matter- that stuff doesn't cost money, but we need to focus our resources on competitive races (and I hope the CFL will do that).

[tomveil]

No. I've been wanting to go to some meetings but we're very new to the area and Vancouver is quite a haul from here, especially on school nights (kid).

I am very interested in materials though. And hopefully we are going to get linked up with some of you guys in person soon.

Where are you at? I'm sure that we have somebody headed out that way. We hold the meetings at my store, and have the materials there as well. I have mailing supplies, and we can ship some stuff out to you if we can't hook up with you in person.

Welcome to the area :)

[tomveil]

Would you care to put money on it? How about a donation to the charity of the winners choice?

The ONLY way a Dem incumbent is going to lose a heavily Dem district is if either 1) the Republican vastly outspends him (not going to happen, the Republican candidate has no money and the Democrat has gobs of cash) or 2) the Dem is involved in a MAJOR scandal- I made a joke about "murder" before, but it wasn't completely a joke- it'd have to be a scandal of earth shattering proportions.

So, unless Baird gets caught having sex with a 6-year old, and you have it on film, or unless you cut the Republican a $2,000,000 check, this race is a stone cold lock for the incumbent.

Bluster is one thing, but we need to focus on reality. Most races in this country are NOT competitive because of Gerrymandering (look it up if you don't know what it means- its a huge reason many Americans correctly think their vote doesn't matter). We need to focus our efforts on races that can be won.

If you want to make videos or "digg" something, fine as long as you realize it won't matter- that stuff doesn't cost money, but we need to focus our resources on competitive races (and I hope the CFL will do that).

It's not a heavily Dem district. It's a freedom heavy district. We got the maximum number of RP NATIONAL delegates and alternates from this district. Democrats and Republicans alike tell me every day that they are going to vote for him because they GET IT.

Gee, we might lose an election? Against a multi-term incumbent with a huge fund raising advantage? With a candidate who has little political experience but a great message? When the LOCAL GOP won't even acknowledge that he's RUNNING because he refused to vote for McCain? Well damn, I thought it was a lock! Isn't getting into congress EASY?

Listen to yourself. Disgusting.

[libertarian4321]

We sent money to BJ.
Some people..... man.

If you didn't like my previous post, you're really not going to like this one.

I like BJ Lawson, I spoke with at the Minnesota Rally and have donated money to him (more because I like the guy than because I think he can win).

But honestly, he has a minimal chance of winning (if he wasn't such a sharp guy, I'd say he had no chance of winning). He, too, is in a heavily Dem district, and is getting KILLED in fundraising (though, unlike the guy in WA state, he's at least raising some money). Not a good sign, even though BJ is a good candidate and the incumbent has made missteps.

I know, I know, I'm raining on the parade. Sorry, but I'm not a "pie in the sky" kind of guy...

We need to focus on districts that don't routinely vote 60+% for the incumbent- underfunded challengers almost never win in this country. I can't think of a single case in recent decades where an incumbent who routinely gets 60% of the vote lost his district to a woefully underfunded challenger EXCEPT when there was redistricting involved (if someone knows of a case where this has happened, let me know).

[libertarian4321]

Gee, we might lose an election? Against a multi-term incumbent with a huge fund raising advantage? With a candidate who has little political experience but a great message? When the LOCAL GOP won't even acknowledge that he's RUNNING because he refused to vote for McCain? Well damn, I thought it was a lock! Isn't getting into congress EASY?

You just made my point.

The guy has no chance under those circumstances.

None, Nada, Zip.

He'd have a better chance of winning the lottery.

If the fact that I splash a little bit of cold, hard reality into the forum "disgusts" you, then so be it.

[tomveil]

You just made my point.

The guy has no chance under those circumstances.

None, Nada, Zip.

He'd have a better chance of winning the lottery.

If the fact that I splash a little bit of cold, hard reality into the forum "disgusts" you, then so be it.

3 things-

1) You're politically retarded not to see this bailout as a gigantic opportunity.

2) I think I'll trust my own version of reality, as somebody who's living here, as opposed to a random on an internet forum.

3) I'm quite done with you.

Anybody else, please PM me if you're looking for campaign materials. Thanks!

[libertarian4321]

3 things-

1) You're politically retarded not to see this bailout as a gigantic opportunity.

2) I think I'll trust my own version of reality, as somebody who's living here, as opposed to a random on an internet forum.

3) I'm quite done with you.

Anybody else, please PM me if you're looking for campaign materials. Thanks!

Voting for or against the bail out isn't going to be enough to knock out an incumbent who is a LOCK for re-election. You aren't living in fantasyland, no matter how much you may want to believe.

You can believe any version of fantasy (or, as you call it, "your own version of reality") you like, it won't matter one bit on election day.

If you feel so confident that you're right, and I'm a fool, my offer of a little bet with the loser donating to the winners charity of choice still stands. Heck, we can make it as trivial as a $25 donation to the C4L if you like.

How confident are you really that I'm a fool and "your version of reality" is right? You have a chance to put your money where your mouth is, and help the C4L at the same time.

I suspect you won't take me up on this- because when you cut through all your self-righteousness, bluster, and delusion, you know I'm right...