"Affective Encryption Analysis"?

[richard1984]

I was just searching for Ron Paul news, and I came across this:

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2007/9/prweb550852.htm

Does anyone know anything about Affective Encryption Analysis? Is this legit, or just some crazy babble? I've heard of stuff like this before, but it seems a little sketchy, and there's very little information online about it, so I don't know.

I sure like the prospect, though. Ron Paul is the candidate to watch.

[richard1984]

bump.

I'd like to know what you all think about the article.

[Shink]

I'm reading it now. I suggest PMing MDH if it's computer-related.

From a blog:


Saturday, June 03, 2006
B.S. Alert

I just came across this news story:

A new behavior prediction tool is forecasting a landslide victory for former Democratic Vice President Al Gore in the 2008 presidential election. However, should Hillary Clinton gain the Democratic nomination, any potential Republican challenger will win the presidency.

These are among the surprising findings reported by Dr. James N. Herndon, a media psychologist with Media Psychology Affiliates. Using a new research tool called Affective Encryption Analysis, Dr. Herndon led an investigation into the likely outcome of the 2008 Presidential election.

“Affective Encryption Analysis is a new behavior forecasting tool that looks at how our feelings and emotions can influence our long-term actions,” explains Dr. Herndon. “Traditional survey techniques are not very good at predicting trends. Affective Encryption Analysis was developed to dig deeper into the emotional factors that control our future behaviors.”

Although created as a potential tool for the intelligence community, Affective Encryption Analysis has seen its early uses in the political arena.

“Voter behavior is not primarily issue-driven,” states Dr. Herndon. “Subtle emotional factors drive our actions at the ballot box. When we decided to study the potential outcome of the 2008 Presidential election, we had no preconceptions about what we’d find. Nonetheless, there were some surprises.”

Among the surprises was the overall weakness of potential Democratic presidential challengers.

“Despite the widespread public dissatisfaction with the George W. Bush administration, our results showed even greater ill-feelings toward potential Democratic challengers,” says Dr. Herndon. “But there was one exception: Al Gore.”

“With a predictive accuracy of 93%, our results showed that Al Gore would easily defeat any Republican challenger in 2008. However, he is the only Democrat on the scene today who has the ability to defeat the likely Republican challengers, who we believe will be either John McCain or Jeb Bush.”

Results were not rosy for Hillary Clinton. “Hillary Clinton would suffer a disastrous defeat at the hands of any Republican who receives the nomination,” states Dr. Herndon.

Should Al Gore decide not to seek the 2008 nomination, the Democrats “have their work cut out for them,” according to Dr. Herndon.

“Our results suggest that a potentially successful Democratic nominee may be lurking in the entertainment industry. Does this sound strange? Maybe. But when it comes to politics, we may have to get used to a future full of surprises.”

Media Psychology Affiliates is a media research and analysis firm based in Los Angeles and Coburg, Germany. It can be found on the web at http://www.mediapsychology.tv



To say I'm skeptical is like saying the Pope is Catholic. Not only does it fail the smell test ("predictive accuracy of 93%"), but a Google search turns up no references for "Affective Encryption Analysis." Also, Dr. Herndon seems to be branching out from his previous work of Tom Cruise-ian approaches to treating depression. Finally, the website of Media Psychology Associates does nothing to allay my suspicions.

It's hard to say...it appears the technology somehow measures people's emotions to decide certain outcomes. The only other results I got in a search on it were that it predicted a big wave of 'anti-semitism' here and in Germany once the economy collapses. I think you probably don't need technology to figure that one out. Oh, and also I think some places are spinning the linked article to just say that 'GORE WUD BE UNSTOPABLE!!!' Go figure.

[Santana28]

i think its legit... the concept behind it makes a lot of sense.

of course, they projected Al Gore to run away with the win back in 2006 if he were to run.

Interestingly enough however, they are also projecting a sharp upturn in Anti-Semitism in America and Europe. Perhaps their results interpret lack of material support for Israel as Anti-Semitism, but either way - there is a correlation there somewhere and it makes sense. I just hope this guy isn't working for someone.... which he may be.... we'll see...

[Man from La Mancha]

Sounds like crazy babble. look what it also said

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2006/5/prweb391395.htm

New Research Tool Predicts Landslide for Gore in 2008, Defeat for Clinton

A new behavior prediction tool is forecasting a landslide victory for former Democratic Vice President Al Gore in the 2008 presidential election. However, should Hillary Clinton gain the Democratic nomination, any potential Republican challenger will win the presidency.

Los Angeles, CA (PRWEB) May 29, 2006 -- A new behavior prediction tool is forecasting a landslide victory for former Democratic Vice President Al Gore in the 2008 presidential election. However, should Hillary Clinton gain the Democratic nomination, any potential Republican challenger will win the presidency.

.

[billm317]

i think its legit... the concept behind it makes a lot of sense.

Please link the details you found which led you to believe it's legit. All I found were vague details pointing to this being some new research tool, used by one Dr. Some of the conclusions sounded reasonable, but that doesn't tell me squat about the method itself.

[Shink]

My suggestion? Search for the patent or trademark. There you might find some of its specific methods.

[Paulitician]

A properly researched and designed media attack can produce crippling results -- quickly.
Of course one can. We've seen it happen before countless times, and to a certain degree it's happening right to our honorable Ron Paul. In my opinion, no such attack will ever happen to any of other candidates (unless of course it's not their "chosen few"). Perhaps a mention here and there about their faults, but nothing close to being a calculated sabotage job. But I guess I'll have to wait and see. I'd sure hope to see Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson exposed.

[slantedview]

I have no idea what that is. It's not related to cryptology though.

[Tuck]

Its a flawed system, it uses public opinion polls and pundit comments which are useless.

[Elwar]

The thing predicted that the Republican primary winner would either be John McCain or Jeb Bush...

If it's accuracy you're looking for, this analysis is not the thing to watch.

[sickmint79]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Herndon

[sickmint79]

jeb bush sounds a little ridiculous... time to change the model ;p

[Santana28]

Please link the details you found which led you to believe it's legit. All I found were vague details pointing to this being some new research tool, used by one Dr. Some of the conclusions sounded reasonable, but that doesn't tell me squat about the method itself.

i dont have any details... perhaps i shoudl have said "i think it Could be legit" - which i do. Emotional Intelligence and measuring the way people respond emotionally to a set of questions, IMO, would be a much better tool of predicting results than merely looking at the hard data and examining that. Its something they could test without political bias.

So yes, very generally speaking - i think this avenue of research could be very ligitimate and insightful.

And at the time the results were projected back in 2006, i'm sure Al Gore would have won. But times have changed, and the new article clearly mentions that.