Does Ron Paul Really Poll 27%?

[kenc9]

I was trying to see what Ron Paul really polls, at least in states that have had a Straw Poll where Republicans have stumped in.

I was trying to see what Ron Paul really polls, at least in states that have had a Straw Poll where Republicans have stumped in.

So here was my calculations,

1) Add all the percentages up that Ron Paul was allowed to be in, in Straw Polls.
http://www.ronpaul2008.com/straw-poll-results/

I think the number was 532.% divided by the number of Straw Poll events (21) to get an average.

So 532% / 21 = 27%

This may not be 100% accurate but a lot closer than the national polls have him at 3% at best.

Are my numbers flawed?

-ken

[Razmear]

At first glance I would say yes.
Overestimating Ron Paul's support is a quick path to defeat, we have to keep spreading the word to the masses.

eb

[kenc9]

At first glance I would say yes.
Overestimating Ron Paul's support is a quick path to defeat, we have to keep spreading the word to the masses.

eb

I believe this is underestimating him, he has been under reported, blocked and voting support turned away as he has been in debates. He may be even higher than his allowed voting record. :)

-ken

[DjLoTi]

I think it's somewhere in between.

[Mr. White]

ummmm no. Perhaps among avid straw polling people that would be a good number. As a trully random sampling he's probably a little higher than 4% factoring in for the inherent bias against him created by the national polls.

[fj45lvr]

NO.

I'd say only 4% even know who he is let alone vote for him.

[ghemminger]

NO.

I'd say only 4% even know who he is let alone vote for him.

2nded - just do your own random sampling this is a no-brainer to those that pass out literture on the streets

[Brasil Branco]

You have to understand that no other campaign is coordinating to vote in these straw polls- the grassroots are isolated specifically to Paul. That's the crux of the situation- Paul is underestimated in most telephone polls, but overestimated in straw polls.

So, you'll have party "regulars" for other candidates and people with some interest in politics vote in these straw polls, but I wouldn't use them as an indicator of volume- not for Paul at least. You could use it for someone like Thompson who seems to be polling high regardless of being unannounced.

I would say Paul is somewhere in between- 6-10% at this moment. That's respectable considering the number of candidates at the moment- it'll be interesting to see how the percentages shift once the votes begin to whittle down. Remember, the Republican party has a relatively large percentage of voters who are still undecided. It's best to see how things begin to look after the next couple of debates, and to see where the attention of apathetic voters shift to.

[paulitics]

2nded - just do your own random sampling this is a no-brainer to those that pass out literture on the streets

True for the general population because he has no media coverage, but among those who care enough to vote in a primary, it is much higher. Only 20% of the public will vote in a primary, maybe half of this number will vote for a republican. Majority of Americans still don't know who Mitt Romney is, heck I think something like 25% don't even know who the VP is. 30% of Americans think Iraq attacked us on 911.

SO, the question is precisely: Among those who will vote in the republican primary, what percentage will vote for RP? Logically, it is much higher than 3 or 4%.

If 3% of registered republicans will vote RP, than you must add to that the much larger voting block of independents and libertarians and were talking somewhere in the 6 to 10% range.

[kenc9]

You have to understand that no other campaign is coordinating to vote in these straw polls- the grassroots are isolated specifically to Paul. That's the crux of the situation- Paul is underestimated in most telephone polls, but overestimated in straw polls.

So, you'll have party "regulars" for other candidates and people with some interest in politics vote in these straw polls, but I wouldn't use them as an indicator of volume- not for Paul at least. You could use it for someone like Thompson who seems to be polling high regardless of being unannounced.

I would say Paul is somewhere in between- 6-10% at this moment. That's respectable considering the number of candidates at the moment- it'll be interesting to see how the percentages shift once the votes begin to whittle down. Remember, the Republican party has a relatively large percentage of voters who are still undecided. It's best to see how things begin to look after the next couple of debates, and to see where the attention of apathetic voters shift to.

This is the way I was thinking as well, then the Texas Straw Poll happened and no meetup groups were allowed to vote only recent delagates were allowed to vote. He still got 16.7% and thats why I was trying to get a better number than the 3%. True this is his home state but it is also the Neocon Bush state as well.

His next funding report will put new light on how the word is spreading.

-ken

[Ridiculous]

I think Paul is probably realistically at around 10%. Here is why:

Who the f' votes in primaries? Not too many people, it is just pretty much people from the parties that are really into and follow politics.

This has all been brought up before, but I'll summarize.

Ron Paul is going to have people coming out of the woodwork to vote in the primaries. Other candidates are not, the people who will be voting for the other candidates in the primaries will be the same people who voted last year in the primaries. It is just a matter of how it balances out in the end. I'd be willing to bet that Paul will have more first time primary voters than any other candidate. I am 29 and I have never voted in the primaries before. A lot of people are registering as republicans for the first time just to vote for him, these people won't show up in a lot of polls. Also, the random polls are of people with land lines who have voted before. The Paul base are people that are internet savvy and a lot of these people have no land line just mobile phones (I know I am one of these people). Additionally, a lot of the young republicans voting for the first time are probably voting for Paul and would not be polled and not show up.

It will still take a lot of work for him to win, but I do think that in reality he is probably at least at 10%.

[DocGrimes]

I have seen these sorts of numbers being thrown around based adding up all straw poll votes and such.

I know the intent is good but just do not see how working at manipulating the numbers this way can be good.

Yeah the mathematics is probably correct but combining straw poll totals where various straw polls had differing standards for allowing votes, ect...

Some like TX had restricted voting rules which limited the votes others had open voting rules which allows Dr. Paul to get HUGE numbers.

Not trying to be negative and hope I do not come across that way but playing with these sorts of numbers just do not show any real facts regarding the campaign.

[fj45lvr]

This is the way I was thinking as well, then the Texas Straw Poll happened and no meetup groups were allowed to vote only recent delagates were allowed to vote. He still got 16.7% and thats why I was trying to get a better number than the 3%. True this is his home state but it is also the Neocon Bush state as well.

His next funding report will put new light on how the word is spreading.

-ken

The problem with this thinking is that it was TEXAS...if any republicans were going to know Paul it would be in the State he actually represents!! I'd say that if you actually listen to Paul as a true conservative you would be fond of him....but that most won't have that opportunity.

Too bad all the primaries are not OPEN.....our best hope is for there to be a VOTE SPLIT amongst the other candidates to come out on top.

[Brasil Branco]

Guys, people vote in primaries. Check out this link:http://www.gwu.edu/~action/primrepsum.html

It's anywhere between 50,000 to 2,000,000 with the average of about 400,000. Even if you consider that the Republican base shrunk considerably- you'll have to say that to realistically get 10%- you will need about 30,000 votes in an average state.

If you look at past primaries, it's pretty clear that people do vote.

[LibertyEagle]

PLEASE EVERYONE. PLEASE go outside and start handing out literature. Door-to-door, at every public event, everywhere that people gather.

We don't have much time left. We really do not. The vast majority of people do not even know who Ron Paul is and even if they have heard his name, have no idea of his stances on issues. Sign-wavings are great, but they don't do a thing to tell what Ron Paul believes in.

We've got to get out there. It's not going to get done on the internet alone.

[blazin_it_alwyz]

NO.

I'd say only 4% even know who he is let alone vote for him.

You have to factor in other things. First of all, all we are concerned about now is the primaries. If we wins the primaries, he has much more exposure to get his points across, which is the problem.

So you have to factor out everyone in America that usually don't vote in primaries. what is that, like 60% of Americans? It has to be a huge number.

Now, factor all everyone who is going to vote democrat.

All we are worried about, is getting Republican nomination. As far as I'm concerned, if Ron Paul gets the nod, almost 100% sure he will win, the media really can't silence a nominated runner for presidency. You just can't have a democrat debating himself in those forums, and you know Ron Paul is going to absolutely demolish anyone he is running against, in any debate.

So yeah factor out all non voters, all democrats. Ron Paul has a bigger youth base than most republicans, and that is where his numbers are strong. I say people wayy underestimate the type of support he has. But by the same token, that's no reason to become lazy.

[quickmike]

Since the middle of may ive been going door to door with flyers and not much has changed on average when it comes to name recognition, at least in my area anyway. Id say about 3 or 4 percent know who he is. The rest have no idea. Some days Ill go to 50 homes and out of the 50 only one person knows who he is. Sometimes I get 4 or 5 out of 50 but never more than that.

[kenc9]

Also factor in this Youtube views, red is Mitt Romney.

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y109/kenc9/YoutubeRP.jpg

[paulitics]

Also factor in this Youtube views, red is Mitt Romney.

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y109/kenc9/YoutubeRP.jpg


yep. 3.5 million is no joke. He has some mainstream appeal. Those numbers don't lie, or else he would be a Mike Gravel. If you add up all of the other Ron Paul videos, like Colbert Report, Daily show, meetup groups, average citizens etc. You are talking 10 million plus. For instance,the Texas delegate controversy is on the front page for the most discussed.

[Larofeticus]

My spreadsheet so far, let me show you it:


TOTAL %AMES
6701 67.39% 31.42% Romney
2883 89.73% 13.52% Huckabee
2509 52.01% 11.76% Ron Paul
2369 92.53% 11.11% Brownback
2091 93.78% 9.80% Tancredo
1151 90.27% 5.40% T Thompson
1093 18.57% 5.13% F Thompson
923 18.85% 4.33% Hunter
868 21.08% 4.07% Giuliani
548 18.43% 2.57% McCain
190 0.00% 0.89% Gingrich
21326


Column 1 is the total number of votes cast in all straw polls i have results for. (15 polls)
Column 2 is the percentage of votes obtained in the AMES poll. (it overpowers most people)
Column 3 is the percent of total votes each candidate recieved.

As you can see, candidates win straw polls by paying money for busses and perks. Brownback, Huckabee, and T. Thompson only have enough money to do it at the one big poll. Romney has the money to do it a few more places. Our man gets decent support everywhere with no national direction.

This makes it very clear who has real grassroots support, and who uses money to try and fake having grassroots support.

[BrianH]

If you count just the post Iowa polls, or last 11 polls the results are:
Compilation of 11 Republican Straw Polls since Iowa.
Results for Ron Paul:

FIRST (6)
North Carolina, Gaston Co. GOP, August 13, ~ 1st 36.6% (15/41)
New Hampshire, Strafford Co., August 18 ~ 1st 72.7% (208/286)
West Alabama, August 18 ~ 1st 81.2% (216/266)
Washington State, South Sound Ronald Reagan Republican Club, August 21 ~ 1st 28.1% (40/160)
Georgia, DeKalb Co. August 24 ~ 1st 23.8% (20/84)
Pennsylvania, Allegheny Co. August 26 ~ 1st 45.9% (28/61)

THIRD (3)
Texas, September 1 ~ 3rd 16.7% (217/1300)
Illinois State Fair, Springfield, August 16 ~ 3rd 18.9% (174/922)
Minnesota House Republican Caucus, August 22 ~ 3rd 16% (NA)

FOURTH (1)
Students for Life of America, August 16 ~ 4th 9.0% (57/635)
Indiana, West Lafayette, Tippecanoe Co., August 18 ~ tied 4th 11.7% (21/180)

SIXTH (1)
Western Montana Fair, August 15, ~ 6th 14.0% (3/85)

Source:
http://ok4ronpaul.ashlux.com/wiki/index.php?title=2008_Presidential_GOP_straw_poll_r esults

http://www.dailypaul.com/node/1766

Or compared to all candidates:
Paul First, Hunter 8th overall in 11 straw polls since Iowa
Rank Candidate.........%........ Votes
1...Ron Paul.............24.9%....999
2...Fred Thompson...18.9%....759
3...Mitt Romney.......16.0%....644
4...Rudy Giuliani.........8.1%....247
5...Sam Brownback.....4.4%....169
6...Mike Huckabey.......5.3%....131
7...John McCain............3.0%....111
8...Duncan Hunter.......14.1%....34
9...Tommy Tancredo......0.5%....16
.....Other...................... 4.2%....22
.....Total......................100%....2578
Last 11 Straw Polls included:
Texas GOP 1-Sep-07
Allegheny County (Pittsburgh, PA)
Dekalb County, GA
Ronald Reagan Club (Washington)
Strafford County, NH
West Alabama
West Lafayette, Indiana
Illinois State Fair
Students for Life of America
Western Montana Fair
Gaston County, NC

[BrianH]

Above is correct title to last post. Could not edit the title