Can Ron Paul win Montana?

[AJ Antimony]

Polls (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/09/latest-statebystate-general-el-47.html) currently say McCain 45%, Obama 44% in Montana. Now that Ron Paul is on the ballot, is he going to take 25% again like he did in the primary? Could he take about 15% from McCain and 10% from Obama? Could that make this a 3 man race at McCain 30%, Obama 34%, Paul 25%? Is this close enough where simple grassroots campaigning can win a state for Ron Paul?

I'm eager to see the first Montana poll that includes Ron Paul's name.

[1836]

Realistically, no.

He might get 5-10% of the vote if the grassroots are active in Montana. But because Montana is such a swing state for the election, Obama and (later) McCain will be spending resources there heavily. Obama already is.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Polls (http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/09/latest-statebystate-general-el-47.html) currently say McCain 45%, Obama 44% in Montana. Now that Ron Paul is on the ballot, is he going to take 25% again like he did in the primary? Could he take about 15% from McCain and 10% from Obama? Could that make this a 3 man race at McCain 30%, Obama 34%, Paul 25%? Is this close enough where simple grassroots campaigning can win a state for Ron Paul?

I'm eager to see the first Montana poll that includes Ron Paul's name.

Current? The poll you cite is from July 30th.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/montana/election_2008_montana_presidential_election

No chance. No chance Paul (or Obama for that matter) wins Montana.

No recent polls from Montana either. That July 30th one was the last.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/montana/election_2008_montana_presidential_election

(Plus I doubt anyone will even include Paul to be honest.)

[newyearsrevolution08]

Ron Paul is going to win ALL the states on both the democratic and republican sides. It was our secret plan from the beginning so please don't tell everyone about it... ssshhhh I think they are onto us...

[1836]

Ron Paul is going to win ALL the states on both the democratic and republican sides. It was our secret plan from the beginning so please don't tell everyone about it... ssshhhh I think they are onto us...

Diebold, anyone?

[AJ Antimony]

Realistically, no.

He might get 5-10% of the vote if the grassroots are active in Montana. But because Montana is such a swing state for the election, Obama and (later) McCain will be spending resources there heavily. Obama already is.

We will see. At least it appears even if Paul gets as low as 5%, that could be enough to tip Montana to Obama.

[Lovecraftian4Paul]

I certainly don't prefer Obama, but it would be sweet for Paul to get a high enough percentage to tip a traditionally "red" state. Then maybe they will see the cost they wrought for ignoring Ron Paul and cheating the delegates at the RNC.

[newyearsrevolution08]

Diebold, anyone?

that would be so damn funny

ron paul 89%
mccain 3%
other 8%

----

I think then and only then would America be allowed a 100% recount and nothing would happen until the "fraud" was figured out...

[merrimac]

When I first read the topic title, I thought this was a joke. But I did a quick search and verified it! :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

As a Montanan, this is great news!!! The best news since the Tea Party. That wipes away any uncertainties about who I'm going to vote for!!!

I wonder if someone is going to try to run adds on Ron Paul's behalf? If they do, I may find a way to reach into my wallet once more.

BTW, for anyone who doesn't know, Obama is paying real close attention to Montana. He's been here several times which is more than any presidential candidate in history and has been running ads for so long now. He even spent part of July 4th in Montana. And they must be delighted that Ron Paul is on the ballet because that will draw votes away from McCain. I have no doubt it will.

And in such a tight electoral college hunt, 3 electorals could make the difference. The ghost of Ron Paul's '08 presidential campaign continues to haunt McCain. :D:D:D:D

[Michael Landon]

I'm willing to bet that if it were Paul/Romney then they would have had a chance to win Montana.

- ML

[Shotdown1027]

I think it is likely that Paul will score a couple percentage points in Montana--enough to tip the scales.

[Dorfsmith]

I certainly don't prefer Obama, but it would be sweet for Paul to get a high enough percentage to tip a traditionally "red" state. Then maybe they will see the cost they wrought for ignoring Ron Paul and cheating the delegates at the RNC.


My thoughts exactly.

[Rangeley]

Keep in mind the 25% was among Republican party officials. He got something like 21% of all Republicans in their primary, but again, thats just the Republicans. I think he can do well perhaps, but its incredibly unlikely he'd win.

[Jamsie 567]

How sweet would it be to win Montana ;)

[AJ Antimony]

Perhaps the grassroots should campaign once more in Montana and Louisiana?