Strategy for RP

[fez2008]

Hi,
greetings.. I hope you'll excuse me for the unsolicited advice. I've been following the campaign for the last 3 months and I think RP can win if
1) he has money( = media coverage = name recognition = more probability to win)
2) if his integrity/sticking to principle is sold better

Since IA, NH, SC, NV, FL are the first states:
Here's what RP can do:
Take 2nd or 3rd in IA (Romeny has this in pocket i think)
Take 1st in NH
Take 3rd in SC (there is still possibility of working this state and getting to 1/2 as they have a libertarian streak governor )
Take 1st or 2nd in NV

For doing this RP needs atleast 15mil in the bank by January. Since there is 1 month and 1 quarter left, the campaign must aim to get 6mil this quarter and 10 mil in the next quarter(they can afford to spend about 4 mil during this time and still will be left with 15mil). 6 mil this quater will lead to 10 mil next quarter. The key is getting 6 mil this quarter.

How to get 6 mil this quarter:
Since they got 2.4 mil last quarter. I'm assuming 3.5 mil from regular donations.
1 mil from the meetupcompetition+fundraising events like the one in texas

Where to get the other 1.5 mil from?
There are 57000+ myspace and 23000+ face book friends of RP.
If each one of them are contacted (similar to the call-iowan, call-texas programs) and
i) asked to donate $20(just a 1 time donation)
ii) and recruit 1 other person to become a friend of RP.
if atleast 60%(i hopethey will because they are all friends of RP) of them donate $20 it will be in excess of 1mil. if atleast 20% of them bring in a new friend RP will have 16000 new friends and potential donors/volunteers for the next quarter.
The other 0.5 mil can be obtained in the last minute push of funding in the final week of the quarter. Even if the initial estimate of 3.5 from regular donations is too optimistic, the campaign can exceed atleast $5 mil if 1 mil can be obtained from myspace+facebook.

It all depends on how well coordinated the contacts are made. Just like call-iowan if you have a coordination of the lists of people to contact and all of them are contacted(and contacted only once) and made known how important this is.. this will happen. It is so much easier than call-iowan or texan because all of these people are friends and all you are asking is to donate $20 to the campaign.

I hope I did not blabber too much. Good luck with the campaign.. you guys are doing a great job.

[fez2008]

Not convinced?
May be this will convince(2nd quarter correspondence of gallup poll numbers to funds raised)...

Republicans $49,673,752 (% of funds) Gallup poll results(June- middle of quarter)
Rudy Giuliani $17,267,287 ----- 34% --- 32%
Mitt Romney $13,793,151 ----- 14%(-ve self donation ) --- 12%
John McCain $11,187,821 ----- 22% --- 19%
Ron Paul $2,357,423 ----- 4.6% --- 1%
Tom Tancredo $1,465,776 ----- 2.9% --- 2%
Sam Brownback $1,394,230 ----- 2.7% --- 1%
Duncan Hunter $803,383 ----- 1.6% --- 1%
Mike Huckabee $763,618 ----- 1.5% --- 2%
Tommy Thompson $458,967 ----- 0.9% --- 1%
Jim Gilmore $182,096 ----- 0.3% --- <0.5%

Democrats $81,764,034 (% of funds) Gallup poll results(June - with and without AlGore)
Barack Obama $32,835,440 ----- 39% --- 30 --- 36
HillaryClinton $26,491,759 ----- 32% --- 29 ---- 37
John Edwards $8,934,062 ----- 11% --- 11 --- 13
Bill Richardson $6,992,779 ---- 8.6% --- 3 --- 4
Chris Dodd $3,250,730 ----- 3.9% --- *(just announced) *
Joe Biden $2,343,639 ----- 2.8% --- 3 ---- 4
Dennis Kucinich $756,423 ----- 0.9% --- <0.5 --- *
Mike Gravel $140,510 ----- 0.1% --- <0.5 --- 1

If you consider margin of error +/-5% those are pretty near...

Now consider this scenario at the end of this quarter:
Republicans $43,000,000
Rudy Giuliani $15,267,287 ---- 34%
Mitt Romney $9,000,000 ---- 20%
John McCain $7,000,000 ---- 16%
Ron Paul $6,000,000 ---- 13.9%
Mike Huckabee $2,500,000 ---- 5.8%
Tom Tancredo $1,500,000 ---- 3.4%
Sam Brownback $1,000,000 ---- 2.3%
Duncan Hunter $1,000,000 ---- 2.3%

Excess of 5mil means Dr.Paul will have raised more than 10% of the funds on the GOP side which will catapult him out of the margin of error in the polls too... so that extra 1mil is absolutely important..

[Mr. White]

Projections are interesting, but I think very optimistic on the numbers.

[Scribbler de Stebbing]

Yep. There are two things the MSM looks at when deciding whether to prop up a candidate: poll numbers and money.

I know we dispute the poll numbers, but there can be no disputing cold, hard cash.

This we must do.

[fez2008]

Projections are interesting, but I think very optimistic on the numbers.
I agree a little optimistic.. but this 1 additional million can surely put the campaign near the 5mil mark... and the reported poll numbers will miraculously go up!

[foofighter20x]

Yep. There are two things the MSM looks at when deciding whether to prop up a candidate: poll numbers and money.

I know we dispute the poll numbers, but there can be no disputing cold, hard cash.

This we must do.

I still say we should all start our own banks and put come cash in the Fed Reserve and then inflate to donate. :p :D

[fez2008]

I still say we should all start our own banks and put come cash in the Fed Reserve and then inflate to donate. :p :D

Foofighter.. can you keep this message alive...
1) I want as many people as possible to see the strong correlation of poll numbers and funds raised
2) Starting a myspace+facebook contact program to get 1 mill

[fez2008]

Can anyone lead this project?
Dr. Paul's numbers can go to 8-14% with this effort...