Nash
09-02-2007, 03:45 AM
I was curious about the numbers of total registered voters, party affiliation and average presidential primary turnout. I thought I'd share them with you.
Total # of registrered voters (2004): 169,000,000
Party Breakdown:
Registered Democrat: 72 Million
Registered Republican: 55 Million
Registered Other: 42 Million
For purposes of this discussion we'll toss out the Democrats.
Based on total registered voters I checked the turnout % for primaries during presidential election years. It widely varies from state to state, but for simplicity I eyeballed a number of totals and came up with around 20%. Some states are higher than this and some are a lot lower.
Thus during the primaries we're gonna see a total of 11 Million registered republicans go out to vote. That number represents a paltry 15% of the voting public.
Based on scientific polling (which I hate to use but that's all I really have numbers wise) Rudy is leading the race with 28% support.
28% of 11 Million republican voters is just over 3 Million votes. You figure he'll get some independent voters too but I can't imagine it being much for than a few hundred thousand considering most independent voters cannot vote in primaries (although I'm aware that some key states allow for this).
So even if you include every republican and likely independents Rudy is getting no more than 3.5 million votes in the primary elections across the country if you believe the polls and they don't move.
3.5 million votes is a pittance. That's a very realistic number to overcome.
However, based on the Straw Poll in Texas it's painfully clear we aren't going to get a lot of established republicans to vote for us, therefore while we take as many as we can get we have to tap the 42 Million independent voters out there for votes. Even if you figure only 20% will show up and even if you only think half of that number will support a "conservative" candidate we're looking at around 4 million votes up for grabs.
I don't believe the polls, but even if we believe that only 3% is accurate then Ron Paul has already got almost 400,000 votes in the bag. That's well behind Rudy but it's almost as many votes as he got in the general election in 1988 where you had 3 times as many people voting.
My point is that by just running the numbers we don't need a lot of votes to win this thing. Primaries are all about mobilizing support on the ground and we clearly can do that, at least for rallies. The key is getting into the voting booth. We need to convert independent voters to our cause and get them to register republican. I think that's a more valid tactic than trying to convert most of the GOP base.
Total # of registrered voters (2004): 169,000,000
Party Breakdown:
Registered Democrat: 72 Million
Registered Republican: 55 Million
Registered Other: 42 Million
For purposes of this discussion we'll toss out the Democrats.
Based on total registered voters I checked the turnout % for primaries during presidential election years. It widely varies from state to state, but for simplicity I eyeballed a number of totals and came up with around 20%. Some states are higher than this and some are a lot lower.
Thus during the primaries we're gonna see a total of 11 Million registered republicans go out to vote. That number represents a paltry 15% of the voting public.
Based on scientific polling (which I hate to use but that's all I really have numbers wise) Rudy is leading the race with 28% support.
28% of 11 Million republican voters is just over 3 Million votes. You figure he'll get some independent voters too but I can't imagine it being much for than a few hundred thousand considering most independent voters cannot vote in primaries (although I'm aware that some key states allow for this).
So even if you include every republican and likely independents Rudy is getting no more than 3.5 million votes in the primary elections across the country if you believe the polls and they don't move.
3.5 million votes is a pittance. That's a very realistic number to overcome.
However, based on the Straw Poll in Texas it's painfully clear we aren't going to get a lot of established republicans to vote for us, therefore while we take as many as we can get we have to tap the 42 Million independent voters out there for votes. Even if you figure only 20% will show up and even if you only think half of that number will support a "conservative" candidate we're looking at around 4 million votes up for grabs.
I don't believe the polls, but even if we believe that only 3% is accurate then Ron Paul has already got almost 400,000 votes in the bag. That's well behind Rudy but it's almost as many votes as he got in the general election in 1988 where you had 3 times as many people voting.
My point is that by just running the numbers we don't need a lot of votes to win this thing. Primaries are all about mobilizing support on the ground and we clearly can do that, at least for rallies. The key is getting into the voting booth. We need to convert independent voters to our cause and get them to register republican. I think that's a more valid tactic than trying to convert most of the GOP base.