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jon_perez
09-02-2007, 02:03 AM
http://johnplaceonline.com/achieve-balance/are-you-smarter-than-a-caveman/

A very enjoyable introspective essay dealing with how we reason about issues. This has direct bearing on the discussions we find over here at Ron Paul Forums.com. Here's a quote worth mulling over:

"ask your uncle Bob his opinion about the high cost of gasoline and you’re sure to hear his opinion – but unless your uncle Bob is an expert on the petrol supply chain, his opinion is likely nonsense, a mishmash of half-truths and assumptions..."

fsk
09-02-2007, 11:28 AM
I thought that the primary reason for an increase in the price of oil was a decrease in the value of a dollar.

If you look at objective measures, such as "price of oil" divided by "price of gold", then the price of oil hasn't gone up that much.

Hook
09-02-2007, 11:58 AM
http://johnplaceonline.com/achieve-balance/are-you-smarter-than-a-caveman/

A very enjoyable introspective essay dealing with how we reason about issues. This has direct bearing on the discussions we find over here at Ron Paul Forums.com. Here's a quote worth mulling over:

"ask your uncle Bob his opinion about the high cost of gasoline and you’re sure to hear his opinion – but unless your uncle Bob is an expert on the petrol supply chain, his opinion is likely nonsense, a mishmash of half-truths and assumptions..."

Even "experts" often get it wrong. The problem is that non of us have perfect information, which is why central planning doesn't work. It takes the collective intelligence of everyone participating in the market to make things happen.