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View Full Version : Michael Delavar advances to general election!



tomveil
08-20-2008, 02:57 PM
Great news from Washington state! Our very own Ron Paul Republican Michael Delavar has defeated party-pick Christine Webb to advance to the general election this November!

Michael's story has been long and arduous, culminating in a betrayal by the GOP after he refused to pledge to vote for John McCain in the upcoming presidential election.

The 3rd Congressional District won 2 delegates and 2 alternates to the national convention for Ron Paul, the most possible. The GOP then tried to get us to "play ball" and give those delegates to McCain. When we refused, they deleted Michael off the GOP website and got a party activist to file at the last minute to run against him.

Of course, you know what happens when they upset us :)

Now we can set our sights on the general election, but we need your help as well! This is a great opportunity to get a Ron Paul Republican into office. Somebody who will stand up for the Constitution, limit the scope of government, and fight to return to the principles which made this country great!

We all know how important this election cycle is, and how important it will be to get more Constitution-minded candidates into office. Please check out www.delavarforcongress.com to find out how you can help!
tekkierich
08-20-2008, 03:01 PM
congrats from the Republican candidate in Maryland's Second district!
RP4EVER
08-20-2008, 04:32 PM
Wonder how they party feels now......they got smashed fairly.
Kludge
08-20-2008, 04:36 PM
The numbers of votes he received in comparison to his new rival are painful to look at. Compiled with the fact that he wasn't the party-pick, I can't see him taking more then 25-30% in the G.E. :(


I'm still more enthusiastic and excited for BJ Lawson's campaign, but I wish Mr. Delavar the best of luck for both his district and our country.
Matt Collins
08-20-2008, 04:52 PM
You have to look at how many dollars per vote it takes to win that district.

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=WA03&cycle=2008

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=WA03&cycle=2006

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=WA03&cycle=2004

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=WA03&cycle=2002

http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=WA03&cycle=2000


Also you have to look at the amount of votes received... It doesn't appear he has a chance to win:

http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/


I don't think he'll get more than 39% of the vote. And probably less than that because he has almost no cash compared to the incumbent.
bucfish
08-20-2008, 05:03 PM
woohoo
Jean
08-20-2008, 05:17 PM
He will win! What you can't see is the organization and the amount of support Michael has behind him! We have just begun! Today the fun begins!:D
Matt Collins
08-20-2008, 06:11 PM
He will win! What you can't see is the organization and the amount of support Michael has behind him! We have just begun! Today the fun begins!:D

Answer me these questions:

How many votes are needed to win?
How many votes has the incumbent received historically?
When was the last time someone of his party held that office?
How much money has it historically taken to win that district?
How many dollars per vote does this equal?
nate895
08-20-2008, 06:18 PM
Answer me these questions:

How many votes are needed to win?
How many votes has the incumbent received historically?
When was the last time someone of his party held that office?
How much money has it historically taken to win that district?
How many dollars per vote does this equal?

The last time a GOP person held this post was 1999, and she won as a write-in in 1994 originally.

As for how many votes, it looks to be around 160,000 in a Presidential year, with the incumbent receiving 193,000 last Presidential year.

As for anything else, I have to be honest, this campaign has been run poorly, and it has little chance to win, even if you gave it a gold mine.
Matt Collins
08-20-2008, 06:26 PM
As for anything else, I have to be honest, this campaign has been run poorly, and it has little chance to win, even if you gave it a gold mine.I dont know anything about the campaign or BJ or anything specifically relating to it. I'm just an outside unbiased (well I do want RP people to win) observer pointing out some facts about elections.
nate895
08-20-2008, 06:31 PM
I dont know anything about the campaign or BJ or anything specifically relating to it. I'm just an outside unbiased (well I do want RP people to win) observer pointing out some facts about elections.

Well, I can't speak for BJ's campaign infrastructure, but from his website, it doesn't look like he is wasting time on "Greenpeace," "AARP," and other socialist groups, and his ads look half decent. Delavar's ads wouldn't pass a High School English class.
princessredtights
08-20-2008, 06:43 PM
Well, I can't speak for BJ's campaign infrastructure, but from his website, it doesn't look like he is wasting time on "Greenpeace," "AARP," and other socialist groups, and his ads look half decent. Delavar's ads wouldn't pass a High School English class.

And when you stepped up to volunteer for the campaign with your ideas on how to improve things, what did they say in response?
nate895
08-20-2008, 06:49 PM
And when you stepped up to volunteer for the campaign with your ideas on how to improve things, what did they say in response?

Nothing. They called us in for a meeting and ignored unanimous advice.
princessredtights
08-20-2008, 11:33 PM
interesting -

I must have seen a different side to Michael & Katja - (I admit - I worked with them on RP's campaign and not Michael's so something MIGHT have changed ...)
I'd be curious to know what advice they ignored.


While some might think it's "impossible" for Michael to win, I'd like to point out that Baird did get 51% of the vote - 49% voted against him -
tomveil
08-21-2008, 04:12 PM
The numbers of votes he received in comparison to his new rival are painful to look at. Compiled with the fact that he wasn't the party-pick, I can't see him taking more then 25-30% in the G.E. :(

I'm still more enthusiastic and excited for BJ Lawson's campaign, but I wish Mr. Delavar the best of luck for both his district and our country.

Well, people who voted for somebody other than Baird did it for a reason. The Webb votes should go to Delavar because they are both Republicans. The Crist votes should mostly go to Delavar as well, as she was a one-issue candidate. (Anti-war) We're realistically looking at a 10-15 deficit right now, with another 2 months to get the message out. Keep in mind that this district already voted for Ron Paul and has a VERY solid base to work with.
nate895
08-21-2008, 05:35 PM
interesting -

I must have seen a different side to Michael & Katja - (I admit - I worked with them on RP's campaign and not Michael's so something MIGHT have changed ...)
I'd be curious to know what advice they ignored.


While some might think it's "impossible" for Michael to win, I'd like to point out that Baird did get 51% of the vote - 49% voted against him -

Things have changed, and I don't understand why.

He thinks the party up here will support him. They won't.

More importantly than the ads not being good, they are aired in wee hours of the morning.

They also angered many in their base (including myself) by refusing to use the Ron Paul campaign list that she has to the benefit of our PCO candidates.

There are many more problems I have with the campaign, but those are more on character issues that I don't want to delve into.