How low will Silver go?

[123tim]

Silver has dropped below the $17.00/ounce mark once again.

I know that this is a loaded question, but I'm interested in hearing predictions about where it will go next (and what might cause this).

It seems that the gas price is driving this current downward trend.

Any predictions on how low it might go?

I've also read comments from people saying things like "Never buy silver when it goes above $17.00 an ounce." I'm just wondering what someone would do who wants an inflation hedge yet has no silver? Would it be safe to wait for the drop to happen? Would there be any indicators to say that the final price surge was coming?

It seems like we all could wake up some morning and find out that something occurred which would drive up prices to a point where they won't come back down. (Maybe.)

Just some questions to keep you up at night. :)

[pacelli]

The last time it dropped below 17, I think it went to around 16.50 for a few days. I'd like to see it go much lower.

[Johnnybags]

other countries will be forced to lower rates sooner than later, dollar collapse delayed, I guess we exported a ton of junk paper to them as well. My guess is 14.00 to 14.50 sometime before elections.

[Bruno]

The last time it dropped below 17, I think it went to around 16.50 for a few days. I'd like to see it go much lower.


Yes, and then it was right back up over $18 for a short period. Up, down, up down. No biggie. Trend is up unless it is manipulated, in my very humble, newb opinion.

[123tim]

Yes, and then it was right back up over $18 for a short period. Up, down, up down. No biggie. Trend is up unless it is manipulated, in my very humble, newb opinion.

Interesting that you mention manipulation. It seemed that the very second that some very serious negative banking news came out, good gas price news came out as well. (About a week ago.)

[Conza88]

How high is the correct question..

I think Schiff said... $500 by 2012 ? or maybe it was $50

[SnappleLlama]

I hope it goes lower so I can afford more of it :)

[Fox McCloud]

I know last time the dollar really went up, Japan was heavily involved in the push upwards (not to mention well placed talking heads to talked the dollar up). Yesterday and today? I have no idea--though I suspect it's something similar...naturally when the dollar goes up, oil, gold, silver, and other commodities will go down.

The market doesn't move in straight lines, yes, but it doesn't make sudden big gains (USD) or losses (Gold, oil) either, especially when the overall trend is down. Overall, it's very aggravating, especially when you're trying to convince people that things are going down the tubes--if they notice that the dollar went up by a whole buck (and that oil is back down to around $120 a barrel), they're sure to think "good times are here again!" and reprimand you.

[SevenEyedJeff]

I'm looking at silver right now and it is up 6 cents, but gold is still down $13. Silver definitely has held up better than gold in this correction. Usually silver gets hammered even worse.

[Fox McCloud]

I'm looking at silver right now and it is up 6 cents, but gold is still down $13. Silver definitely has held up better than gold in this correction. Usually silver gets hammered even worse.

and crude just jump $3.36 as well (as well as the USD dropping 5 cents).

[Dr.3D]

I tend to believe the dollar doesn't go up but rather the other currencies fall further and make it look like the dollar went up.

[New York For Paul]

More and more new silver mines are coming into production. Plus since silver is an industrial metal, even industry or the economy slow down, demand for silver will drop.

[Dr.3D]

More and more new silver mines are coming into production. Plus since silver is an industrial metal, even industry or the economy slow down, demand for silver will drop.

Not necessarily so.
It takes around five years for a silver mine to even start production.

If the dollar crashes and I believe it will, then silver will become more than a commodity, it will become money. It won't lose value because real money does not lose value.

[New York For Paul]

Silver would be easier to trade than gold.

Mines are opening up all over. I don't think it will take five years.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/03/us/03wallace.html

CROWDS RUSHING TO THE NEW SILVER MINES.THE DISCOVERIES IN AND AROUND LEADVILLE

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=9C00E5DF153FE432A25755C1A9649C94 6890D7CF

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=18775&sn=Detail


A new mine to open in august will produce 1.4 million ounces of silver this year.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page32?oid=53022&sn=Detail

[Dr.3D]

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/puplava/2004/0112.html

From the time of discovery to the time a new mine is brought into production may take as long as 5-7 years.

http://www.silveriswealth.com/78reasons.htm

Silver MINES open and silver mines close. More primary silver mines are CLOSING than opening (usually due to depletion). A report from silver expert David Morgan, showed a loss of 50 million ounces of production in 2001.

Yes, there may be some mines opening but there are more mines closing than there are mines opening.

[bander87]

I'm confused myself. Freddie and Fannie go under, and then the dollar suddenly becomes surprisingly strong?

Least oil is dropping

[Fox McCloud]

Least oil is dropping

http://www.kitco.com/market/

it's actually gained $4.65 as of 4:57PM

[Fox McCloud]

minor update:


And while I don't know when that will happen, I do have an idea how high silver will get in price. The historical high for silver was set 531 years ago in 1477, topping at (using the purchasing power of 1998 dollars) a princely $806 an ounce. By comparison, the price of silver less than $19 an ounce today, and was only about $5 an ounce in 1998, after having bottomed at under $4 an ounce in 1992.

Now, fast-forward to today as our 2008 dollars, which have fallen 50% in purchasing power since 1998, means that the all-time high price for silver, set in 1477, now stands at $1,012 an ounce, measured in the buying power of 2008 dollars! Over a thousand dollars an ounce! For silver! Whee!

In case you haven't noticed, we're unmistakably coming off the lows of a 530-year bear market in silver and, theoretically, entering a long bull market, which ought to be exciting to people who have a lot riding on silver gaining so much in price (me), or even just keep up with this kind of thing, like, for instance, Israel Friedman, writing at InvestmentRarities.com, who notes that there are 5 billion ounces of gold sitting around someplace in the world, but that there are only 2.5 billion ounces of silver, even though five times as much silver is mined every year than gold.

Therefore, silver is being consumed at prodigious rates, which is why Mr Friedman says, "Silver is needed to maintain and improve future standards of living. Gold is needed for luxury and emotional reasons. Silver is for the optimist, gold for the pessimist."

In that optimistic vein, Mr Friedman says, "I honestly believe that silver must eventually sell for five to 10 times what the price of gold may be."

And that is just the kind of profit that I need! Whee!

source: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JG31Dj01.html

[bander87]

http://www.kitco.com/market/

it's actually gained $4.65 as of 4:57PM

Longer term Fox :P

It's down to 126 from 144!

[SevenEyedJeff]

I don't understand the people that say don't buy silver unless it goes under $ 17, unless they already have a lot of it.

My advice is buy metals in the May through August period of seasonal weakness, and pick how much you will get depending on the price. For example,

Say you decide to go every Monday to get some metals, and get:

$ 400 worth if it's under $ 17
$ 300 worth if it's $17-18
$ 200 worth if it's $18-19
$ 100 worth if it's $19-20

When it breaks out of the range, then sit back and watch it go up, and wait for another major correction and set another strategy. These people that say to only buy under $ 17, aren't going to end up with much in the way of silver because it's just not going to be there long. When silver goes to $ 35 or $ 40 are you going to be worried about whether you bought it at $ 16 or $ 19?

[buffalokid777]

Silver has dropped below the $17.00/ounce mark once again.

I know that this is a loaded question, but I'm interested in hearing predictions about where it will go next (and what might cause this).

It seems that the gas price is driving this current downward trend.

Any predictions on how low it might go?

I've also read comments from people saying things like "Never buy silver when it goes above $17.00 an ounce." I'm just wondering what someone would do who wants an inflation hedge yet has no silver? Would it be safe to wait for the drop to happen? Would there be any indicators to say that the final price surge was coming?

It seems like we all could wake up some morning and find out that something occurred which would drive up prices to a point where they won't come back down. (Maybe.)

Just some questions to keep you up at night. :)

If i'm a betting man silver is hitting it's cycle lows now, like gold, and headed up August......i suspect september-october will see the real gains in silver

[123tim]

If i'm a betting man silver is hitting it's cycle lows now, like gold, and headed up August......i suspect september-october will see the real gains in silver

Something happened this morning when Silver hit the 8:00 N.Y. NYMEX. It shot up instantly. Take a look at the graph:

http://66.38.218.33/charts/livesilver.html

I see nothing in the news to indicate what might have caused this.

[Mister Grieves]

I think the drop in price was just one of the last shake off's for the weak kneed.

PM's are going to skyrocket soon. It's inevitable as the economy sinks.

[New York For Paul]

I wish I had bought silver when Warren Buffet did at 4 dollars an ounce.

[ChickenHawk]

I just bought a bunch of silver so based on the typical performance of my investments silver should lose most of its value in the next year or so.

[Dr.3D]

I just bought a bunch of silver so based on the typical performance of my investments silver should lose most of its value in the next year or so.

Ah, but silver is not an investment. :)

[muh_roads]

I just bought a bunch of silver so based on the typical performance of my investments silver should lose most of its value in the next year or so.

As fall approaches I think you'll feel good about the choice you made.

[bander87]

Something happened this morning when Silver hit the 8:00 N.Y. NYMEX. It shot up instantly. Take a look at the graph:

http://66.38.218.33/charts/livesilver.html

I see nothing in the news to indicate what might have caused this.

Did you happen to see the dollar index?

[ChickenHawk]

Ah, but silver is not an investment. :)

True, but my non-investments don't do much better.

[123tim]

Did you happen to see the dollar index?

No, Honestly I'm sort of an economic idiot. (Seriously) I never thought along monetary lines my whole life except to work hard and save my money. I always thought that this would suffice.

I had no idea of the divisive, evil tactics which were going on behind the U.S./World economic scene. I didn't even know what caused inflation until last year.

I find myself struggling to get up to speed (Concerning REAL economics) in order to survive. Honestly I feel sort of cheated that I have to do this....Econimic thinking doesn't come naturally to me. Luckily for me I feel that no learning is wasted learning.

I'm going to Google the dollar index now to see if I can figure out what happened.

Thank you.

[Dr.3D]

The dollar index showed the dollar went down against the basket of currencies it is calculated from. But... it also went back up and is only 0.05 below what is was yesterday at this time. The price of the gold and silver stayed up though.

[123tim]

The dollar index showed the dollar went down against the basket of currencies it is calculated from. But... it also went back up and is only 0.05 below what is was yesterday at this time. The price of the gold and silver stayed up though.

Thanks. Would you happen to know of a good daily chart for the dollar index? It seems that all I could find covered about half of the year.

[Dr.3D]

Thanks. Would you happen to know of a good daily chart for the dollar index? It seems that all I could find covered about half of the year.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=NYBOT_DX&t=l&w=5&a=2&v=s

[123tim]

So there it is. The spike between 8:00 and 9:00. Exactly the same as silver only reversed.

Dollar goes down - Silver goes up. Even I can understand that.

Thank you Dr. 3D and Bander87.

My only question is why the dollar dropped so abruptly. Was it because of simple recalculation?

Another strange thing (In my mind) This drop seemed to trigger a rise in the silver price. However Silver didn't drop once the dollar value came back up.

[noxagol]

Silver probably didn't drop because there were people buying still keeping the price up.

[Gideon]

Silver probably didn't drop because there were people buying still keeping the price up.

First of all, the VAST majority of silver traded is merely electronic, meaning that there is very little correlation to the actual physical silver demand and the price.
If all silver traded were physical silver, we would see a more realistic value in relation to the debt-based FRN, but as long as silver ETFs and silver shares comprise the bulk of the ordering, then price (value) manipulation will remain the order of the day.

Secondly, the value of silver has everything to do with the perceived value of the fiat currencies with which silver is purchased. The price of silver therefore, will continue trending upward, because the value of the fiat money, especially the FRN, will continue spiraling downward.

Finally, as the FRN continues its incremental (exponential) flameout into oblivion, look for "dollar" manipulation as the key for exchanging FRNs for precious metals and other commodities like rice and ammo. Personally, I have a large order for silver pending, and I am hoping that the Plunge Protection Team will be working overtime this weekend (apparently they live together on the weekends), in order to strengthen the dollar, so that I can better utilize debt-based FRNs, in order to obtain the REAL THING: .999 Ag.

Bottom line:

When you are using FRNs to obtain PMs, $18 per troy ounce is still a bargain.

[Gideon]

Silver spot closed at $16.89 today.

The Plunge Protection Team is doing their magic to strengthen perception of the FRN in time for the big Beijing show, and I'm hoping Ag spot comes down closer to $16 in the next few days.

[123tim]

Silver spot closed at $16.89 today.

The Plunge Protection Team is doing their magic to strengthen perception of the FRN in time for the big Beijing show, and I'm hoping Ag spot comes down closer to $16 in the next few days.


16.6 and still dropping at 7:30. It will be interesting to see what happens when the NYMEX opens.

[Cowlesy]

Hmm, Silver $10, Gold $500?

[New York For Paul]

Hecla increases silver production 60 %.


http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20080804006424&newsLang=en

Platinum has dropped big in the last month.

[LibertyEagle]

Hmm, Silver $10, Gold $500?

Do you honestly think so? Does that make sense with the massive inflation we're having?

[bander87]

Hmm, Silver $10, Gold $500?

Hope that is sarcasm! :o

[Cowlesy]

Do you honestly think so? Does that make sense with the massive inflation we're having?

I was being somewhat sarcastic.

Prices are sticky so I feel that prices will continue to increase, but today we are seeing commodities sink like rocks. If I were a producer, I'd certainly pocket the spread if I wasn't 100% hedged on my inputs and could keep my prices jacked up.

The Fed Reserve Governors you hear speaking on CNBC are always looking at things from a very high level macro picture. They have no bearing on the reality of everyday folks who are just getting by. As long as us plebes can be squeezed just a little more, we'll keep getting squeezed, but at some point, there will be a breaking point.

Not sure where that is.

[Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice]

maybe everyone's selling their jewelry and flooding the market.
Money's tight yo

[shaunish]

maybe the reason commodities are falling here, is because other economies are slumping also.

britian, the EU and now new zealand are not fairing any better than us.

but then again, you would think that with inflation rising in other countries, the demand for gold would be even higher.

[123tim]

4:41 PM and it's still going dowwwwwwwwn.

Almost ready to hit $16.40

http://66.38.218.33/charts/livesilver.html

[The_Orlonater]

Man, does everything jump up and down like this?

May I ask why silver isn't going up?

[123tim]

Man, does everything jump up and down like this?

May I ask why silver isn't going up?

Yep. It does go up and down.

If you click the "Historical Charts" (Just click as many boxes as you care to see) on the link that I posted you can see as much "up and down" as you can take. :)
http://66.38.218.33/charts/livesilver.html


I don't have enough experience to answer your second question.

[The_Orlonater]

Woah. I've heard precious metals always were like this.

[Dr.3D]

Man, does everything jump up and down like this?

May I ask why silver isn't going up?

It generally moves opposite to the U.S. Dollar index.

http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif