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Imperial
07-28-2008, 09:15 PM
Ok, here is the challenge:

List the five most viable Paulite runners for U.S. Congress you think can win it.

Then, list five in a "lesser tier": that is, a chance but not as likely as the above.

Get to it!

My list:

Top 5:
Bob Conley
Stephen Vasquez
B.J. Lawson
Michael Delavar
Jim Burkee

Bottom 5:
Mike Hargadon
Dick Heller
Peter James


That is the most I can list on the campaigns for US Congress(many good choices are available for other positions) that come up to me that have a good chance. There are other Ron Paul Republicans(I know one in Oregon and two more in Maryland) that I think have a chance, but I don't believe most Libertarians have a shot(although Heller seems appealing). And I don't feel like David Gay will win it, though he could build up his cred.

zadrock
07-28-2008, 09:55 PM
Ok, here is the challenge:

List the five most viable Paulite runners for U.S. Congress you think can win it.

Then, list five in a "lesser tier": that is, a chance but not as likely as the above.

Get to it!

My list:

Top 5:
Bob Conley
Stephen Vasquez
B.J. Lawson
Michael Delavar
Jim Burkee

Bottom 5:
Mike Hargadon
Dick Heller
Peter James


That is the most I can list on the campaigns for US Congress(many good choices are available for other positions) that come up to me that have a good chance. There are other Ron Paul Republicans(I know one in Oregon and two more in Maryland) that I think have a chance, but I don't believe most Libertarians have a shot(although Heller seems appealing). And I don't feel like David Gay will win it, though he could build up his cred.


Is your "Bottom 5" supposed to be candidates that you think don't have a chance? Do you know anything about Mike or is this just based on the demographics of the district?

Z

Mike Hargadon
07-29-2008, 08:18 AM
Ok, here is the challenge:

List the five most viable Paulite runners for U.S. Congress you think can win it.

Then, list five in a "lesser tier": that is, a chance but not as likely as the above.

Get to it!

My list:

Top 5:
Bob Conley
Stephen Vasquez
B.J. Lawson
Michael Delavar
Jim Burkee

Bottom 5:
Mike Hargadon
Dick Heller
Peter James


That is the most I can list on the campaigns for US Congress(many good choices are available for other positions) that come up to me that have a good chance. There are other Ron Paul Republicans(I know one in Oregon and two more in Maryland) that I think have a chance, but I don't believe most Libertarians have a shot(although Heller seems appealing). And I don't feel like David Gay will win it, though he could build up his cred.

Imperial:
Thanks for recognizing me as a candidate. I personally don't mind the poor standing in your poll, but I must speak for my committee: Ten to twelve active volunteer members who have met once a week since the Primary, and a Strategy committee which has also met once a week for the past 3 months.
I have spoke before the Howard County Red White and Blue Dinner, we conquered Catonsville, and we are preparing to start Robo calls into the City, have our first meeting in our new City Campaign Headquarters, and have raised over $11,000 from individuals without PAC money.
Have you critiqued our web site?
If so great! But if not, such predictions without checking out the candidates and their efforts, only reflects poorly on you. I will assure you that we will do better than any of Cummings recent challengers, and I will gladly give you the mic to eat some crow on November4th at our Victory Party!
Mike Hargadon
HargadonForUSCongress.com

Imperial
07-29-2008, 01:00 PM
Actually, the lesser tier is good.

There are probably 100 Paulite candidates for US Congress across the nation.

This is basically a top-ten. However, it is hard to say who has the best chance, and quantitatively say how much chance each has.

So, acknowledging most running under a third-party label will not win, and that some districts will be harder to win as a democrat or republican than others, I am simply picking the five best chances, and five good chances that can win, but there is a good chance they won't.

I simply believe the Maryland districts are heavily democratic. I will admit that I haven't really investigated much past the one special election that was held in the James district.

Considering how Democratic many of the districts are in this state, this is very good! The RPR's are doing better than other republicans in the past, that is for sure. And I think we have a good chance. You are listed in my top 10 of the liberty candidates. And that is the challenge.

So, considering that there are about 100 liberty candidates nationwide, that you were on the poll is something to be happy about.

Note: I will probably update my list. I recently stumbled across a good list of liberty candidates, and will do more research. However, I would like to see other people's opinions as well.

zadrock
07-29-2008, 03:45 PM
So you have a top tier (top 5) and a second tier (bottom 5)? And then everyone else is somewhere below those two tiers?

I think Mike and I interpreted it as there being a top 5 (most likely to be elected), a bottom 5 (least likely to get elected) and everyone else in the middle. Which is why we thought you were saying Mike had no chance.

Yes, Maryland is (outside of District 1 and 6) a heavily Democratic state. That said, the elected Dems here are taking their constituents for granted. All 4 RP Republicans here hope to capitalize on that. Remember - Congress's approval rating is just NINE percent.

Z

Mike Hargadon
07-29-2008, 04:00 PM
Imperial:
I misread your list, and I am a little defensive for my committee. When the Republican Liberty Caucus gave out endorsements, I was the only one of the four Ron Paul Maryland candidates who was passed over. We have been anxiously awaiting a possible Ron Paul endorsement, in that two of the four Maryland RP's have been endorsed, and our biggest problem in this democratic district, is to shake off the Typical Republican label.
Dr. Paul: Please give me your brand!

boggie08
07-31-2008, 01:13 PM
I think B. J. Lawson is our most viable candidate by far. We really need to donate more to him.

I am not sure about Bob Conley. I definitely do not want to relive Murray Sabrin.

Aratus
08-01-2008, 08:49 AM
methinks quite a few people have a future potential. i was also including SteveMartin in this.
curiously enough... i do feel Ron Paul ran this year to inspire people who could effectively
run on a similar platform to his some twenty, thirty, forty or fifty years down the road...

Flash
08-06-2008, 05:01 PM
I think B. J. Lawson is our most viable candidate by far. We really need to donate more to him.

I am not sure about Bob Conley. I definitely do not want to relive Murray Sabrin.

I never understood why Murray Sabrin wanted to run in such a liberal state.

No1ButPaul08
08-06-2008, 05:36 PM
Sorry if this offends anyone, but the list of viable candidates begins and ENDS with BJ Lawson, and his chances aren't that good, either. In your bottom 5, you included Peter James. The thought of Peter being a viable candidate is laughable, considering he got DRILLED (the winner recieved 81%, it wasn't Peter) in the special election less than two months ago.

tekkierich
08-06-2008, 05:43 PM
I never understood why Murray Sabrin wanted to run in such a liberal state.

Because he lived there!

Those of us running do not sit here and pick our battle ground states, we are trying to improve the country, state and country were we live. I was born and raised in Anne Arundel County Maryland. I have lived in the area 90% of my life. This year my wife and I have started a family by welcoming our daughter into the world this May 30th. Her birth makes what we are doing in my campaign all that more important.

Murray's campaign had is flaws and successes just as mine has it's own. However you cannot fault someone for running for office to represent the community that they are a part of.

RSLudlum
08-06-2008, 05:45 PM
I am not sure about Bob Conley. I definitely do not want to relive Murray Sabrin.


Sabrin lost in the primaries, Conley won the Dem. primary and will be facing Graham in the general, and Conley has been getting alot of airtime in the local media; at least on the radio, I don't know about TV since I don't watch it much at all anymore. Graham constantly refuses to go on local SC radio, and constantly gets bashed by for it and his policies. Conley definitely has a good chance.

No1ButPaul08
08-06-2008, 05:54 PM
Conley definitely has a good chance.

No, he doesn't.

Fundraising totals as of June 30th

Lindsey Grahamnesty: 9,124,443
Bob Conley 17,105

Money isn't everything in politics, but it sure does mean a lot. I would guess that no candidate has ever won while being out raised 533-1. Call it a hunch.

nate895
08-06-2008, 07:13 PM
No, he doesn't.

Fundraising totals as of June 30th

Lindsey Grahamnesty: 9,124,443
Bob Conley 17,105

Money isn't everything in politics, but it sure does mean a lot. I would guess that no candidate has ever won while being out raised 533-1. Call it a hunch.

Then give him money. I have seen 100-1, and 10-1 is actually good if you're up against an incumbent. Incumbent money doesn't mean much, if the opposition has a good message and just enough money to communicate that message to the voters, they will win. Lindsey Graham can spend 1 billion dollars, but if Bob Conley can reach all the voters with 1 million, Bob Conley wins.

skeet
08-07-2008, 03:32 AM
McCay in Mississippi's 4th has made up some serious ground in the last couple of months. He is well recieved by the GOP as well. We like it that he is underestimated, it has helped greatly. Just from looking at your list McCay has as good a chance or better than most you listed.

HenryKnoxFineBooks
08-07-2008, 02:05 PM
Lawson is a good candidate, however, he faces a really tough fight against a 128 term incumbent, Price, in a heavily liberal district (College town of Chapel Hill). This is my district, and I'm just starting to see the Price bumper stickers and Yard signs going up.

Donate what you can to Lawson, he'll need all the ammo he can get.

bucfish
08-07-2008, 02:21 PM
I say Collins Bailey. Cause even the Dems are mad at this Opponent Steny Hoyer!

Imperial
08-07-2008, 08:01 PM
Pretty soon I will be updating my list, so stay tuned. I encourage ya'll to make a list too.

RSLudlum
08-07-2008, 08:27 PM
Then give him money. I have seen 100-1, and 10-1 is actually good if you're up against an incumbent. Incumbent money doesn't mean much, if the opposition has a good message and just enough money to communicate that message to the voters, they will win. Lindsey Graham can spend 1 billion dollars, but if Bob Conley can reach all the voters with 1 million, Bob Conley wins.


+1

Graham's opponent, Buddy Witherspoon, in the Rep Primary got 33% of the vote and had a nearly non-visible campaign.

zadrock
08-07-2008, 09:55 PM
I say Collins Bailey. Cause even the Dems are mad at this Opponent Steny Hoyer!

Yeah, Glenn Greenwald at salon.com has targeted him for his FISA capitulation. Hoyer needs to go.

Z