Top 25 Ron Paul Groups Alone Raise at least $315,000 in 10 Days

[Mister Grieves]

I saw some questions earlier this week in regards to RP's fund raising numbers for this quarter.

I found this encouraging. We need to keep it up.

http://ronpauldelaware.wordpress.com/2007/08/29/top-25-ron-paul-groups-alone-raise-at-least-315000-in-10-days/

[FluffyUnbound]

I saw some questions earlier this week in regards to RP's fund raising numbers for this quarter.

I found this encouraging. We need to keep it up.

http://ronpauldelaware.wordpress.com/2007/08/29/top-25-ron-paul-groups-alone-raise-at-least-315000-in-10-days/

The main assumption about that one group with 5 members is the wild card here, and is a very, shall we say, unconservative assumption.

I combined data from the last few posts of the board to prove that the Southern California Ron Paul Meetup group, currently in 25th place, had submitted at least $111. With that baseline the top 25 have submitted a minimum of just below $100k. If any top 25 Meetup group would announce their own current total, the Excel "method" could give us the true total.

[john_anderson_ii]

If this is true, my high-end estimate is pretty close !! Sweet. Too bad it's an estimate.....




Let's just take the meet up group competition as an example. If we examine dollar spread from 1st place to 25th place from the standings website, we see that the minimum amount donated just for this competition is $73,333. That is if 1st place donated $9980 and 25th place donated $0. We know that isn't the case. I'm thinking that first place probably donated more along the $15,000. That would make the minimum amount raised $198,833. If you want be very optimistic and put 1st place at $20,000 raised, the minimum amount from the top 25 meetup groups becomes $323,833. Take any of those figures and factor in the $75,000 in one day, plus the $40,000 or so for the birthday card, and you'll get a picture of the money raised from just a few programs

[honkywill]

this is good to hear.

[purepaloma]

Based on past assumptions in this realm - I'm thinking it's much less until proven.

[FluffyUnbound]

Any group that is NOT in the top 25 that has donated more than $111 could also help us get a better idea, because if we can establish that the baseline is higher we can start to move from a figure <100k as the guaranteed minimum and towards that $315k figure.

[Original_Intent]

The main assumption about that one group with 5 members is the wild card here, and is a very, shall we say, unconservative assumption.

I combined data from the last few posts of the board to prove that the Southern California Ron Paul Meetup group, currently in 25th place, had submitted at least $111. With that baseline the top 25 have submitted a minimum of just below $100k. If any top 25 Meetup group would announce their own current total, the Excel "method" could give us the true total.

Yep the author's basic assumption is nothing more than spitballing. I think that your $111 for the number 25 group is probably also overly conservative, but until someone spills it is better to err on the side of caution. Based on the numbers that we do have, I would be surprised if a top 25 group had not at least raised $1000 - but again that is just a number I pulled out of the air.

[fletcher]

"Since the minimum is 5 people @ $11,500, we’ll assume that this was their plan, and that is how much money they have raised."

That is the dumbest assumption I have ever seen.

[Johnnybags]

true, you gotta believe a meetup group is targeting that highest per member, minimum 11,500 prize. They knew that it would be hard to win against the big city high membership group so they pegged the highest per member minimum 11,500. What is Ron going to do if 6 people put up 2,300? Who gets the prize? Same money per member? Heck, if a nightclub owner drew Ron to his place for the evening in a suburban environment thru donations it would be like booking the Rolling Stones for the night, what a draw. I say the estimate is spot on.

[ARealConservative]

The main assumption about that one group with 5 members is the wild card here, and is a very, shall we say, unconservative assumption.

I combined data from the last few posts of the board to prove that the Southern California Ron Paul Meetup group, currently in 25th place, had submitted at least $111. With that baseline the top 25 have submitted a minimum of just below $100k. If any top 25 Meetup group would announce their own current total, the Excel "method" could give us the true total.

I'm in a small group that got into the top 25 because I distributed flyers with the donation URL including my MU #.

For this reason, I have absolutely no idea how much money my group has generated.

[Original_Intent]

I see what you are saying Johnny, I still say making that assumption is too big of a stretch.

I mean, it is just as likely the five people are getting others to donate what they can and then on the last day of the competition they have agreed to make up any shortfall to make the minimum. (or to boost their numbers if another 5 member group threatens.) To assume they each laid down 2300 at the get go yes they MAY have - but to base your data on that one assumption, that falls into the "Lies, damn lies, and statistics" category.

[fletcher]

true, you gotta believe a meetup group is targeting that highest per member, minimum 11,500 prize. They knew that it would be hard to win against the big city high membership group so they pegged the highest per member minimum 11,500. What is Ron going to do if 6 people put up 2,300? Who gets the prize? Same money per member? Heck, if a nightclub owner drew Ron to his place for the evening in a suburban environment thru donations it would be like booking the Rolling Stones for the night, what a draw. I say the estimate is spot on.

You're assuming they're only donating to win. Most likely they are just happy to see their group in the top 25. What are the odds that a meetup group of 5 people had never donated to the campaign and then decided to give $2300 each once the competition started? zero.

[Brasil Branco]

As I mentioned in the comments section of the blog- a better assumption would be to assume the group with 2 people donated at most $4,600.

From this we get a number of about $230,000 without taking into account the other number of groups- which is still fairly good.

[FluffyUnbound]

Yep the author's basic assumption is nothing more than spitballing. I think that your $111 for the number 25 group is probably also overly conservative, but until someone spills it is better to err on the side of caution. Based on the numbers that we do have, I would be surprised if a top 25 group had not at least raised $1000 - but again that is just a number I pulled out of the air.

Yes, even any individual donation higher than $111 that was coded to a group not in the top 25 would also help us raise the baseline.

For example, if anyone has given the maximum and their group isn't on the list, it would mean that the minimum total for the top 25 would be about 139k.

[Johnnybags]

You're assuming they're only donating to win. Most likely they are just happy to see their group in the top 25. What are the odds that a meetup group of 5 people had never donated to the campaign and then decided to give $2300 each once the competition started? zero.

11,500 for a draw like Ron? They had no realistic chance to win the total amount raised award in such a small demographic so for 11,500 thay can get him there and hold a giant party, its an inspired plan but i'll bet 1/9 Ron is in trouble with this prize structure because more groups with small membership will try to pay 11,500 to get him there. Heck, in reality the economic activity raised in the winning area will be worth the donations. What happens if a meetup group with two members raises 30k?

[jonahtrainer]

I'm in a small group that got into the top 25 because I distributed flyers with the donation URL including my MU #.

For this reason, I have absolutely no idea how much money my group has generated.

What a great idea!

I want to make a Founding Father's flyer and get a DVD/CD and go hand them out during rush hour in the morning so people can listen to it in the car on their way to the office and watch the DVD later.

This Meetup Competition is awesome because it helps people band together and get involved. We had our 3rd Meetup on Monday and there were 70 people there; up from 14 at the end of May. Now we are going to all the GOP and Democrat meetings. This is a handy tool (http://ronpaul.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page).

This groundswell of support on the ground is being noticed. For example, the monthly Republican meeting had about 125 people there including our Mayor (city with population in excess of 1.2M).

Soon the Ron Paul Meetup will exceed the entire Republican party. Then we can say respond to 'he can't win' with "Well, where are your supporters? Are they ghosts?"

With my flyer and DVD/CD idea we better have a rematch of this Meetup competition!

[Lord Xar]

Yep the author's basic assumption is nothing more than spitballing. I think that your $111 for the number 25 group is probably also overly conservative, but until someone spills it is better to err on the side of caution. Based on the numbers that we do have, I would be surprised if a top 25 group had not at least raised $1000 - but again that is just a number I pulled out of the air.

well, I donated from that group 506 (#25) -- and I donated $150. I can't imagine I was the only one....

[FluffyUnbound]

well, I donated from that group 506 (#25) -- and I donated $150. I can't imagine I was the only one....

Well, if we assume that your Meetup has donated $1000 as a whole [with a single donation of $150 from you, that doesn't seem unreasonable, since they're in the top 25 after all] that would make the total from the top 25 right now about $106,000.

That figure gives us an average contest donation per meetup member of about $22, which doesn't seem that crazy to me. It also leaves it a lot of room to go higher, since it makes the Austin group have an average donation of less than 5 bucks.

[jonahtrainer]

well, I donated from that group 506 (#25) -- and I donated $150. I can't imagine I was the only one....

Gah, why didn't we all combine together?

Irvine, San Diego and Hollywood. I am in SD and I know we got lots of loose cash flowing into the campaign.

[Lord Xar]

Gah, why didn't we all combine together?

Irvine, San Diego and Hollywood. I am in SD and I know we got lots of loose cash flowing into the campaign.

we tried... that was suggested and that meetup is a few grouped together.. I think irvine was contacted and others.. but they didn't want to be "onboard" I guess...I don't know.. I am finding that its very hard to coordinate between meetups...

YOU DO KNOW RON PAUL is coming to Los Angeles on Sept 12th, to speak as USC, right? There will be a rally and fundraiser... you should come.

[Johnnybags]

and will really go down to the wire, i'll estimate a doubling from today at minimum. I wonder why Rudy,Romney, McCain do not do this? How much ya think they would draw? Its too funny at the very least see McCain plotted on the frontrunner stage when we know his paid staff would charge him more to set up an operation like this than he would return. They all gotta be scratching their heads, seriously. Ron just asks for help and people respond.

[fletcher]

I wonder why Rudy,Romney, McCain do not do this? How much ya think they would draw? Its too funny at the very least see McCain plotted on the frontrunner stage when we know his paid staff would charge him more to set up an operation like this than he would return. They all gotta be scratching their heads, seriously. Ron just asks for help and people respond.

They don't do it because they have no grassroots support. Rudy, Romney, and McCain have about 100 meetup supporters combined. Ron has more than 33,000.

[FluffyUnbound]

The Meetup group message boards are really pretty freakin' amazing.

I started browsing through them trying to find indications of what groups were actively donating as part of the challenge but weren't on the top 25 list, and the sheer quantity of things people are doing for the campaign is STAGGERING.

[angelatc]

I'd te;; you ours, but I have no idea. We should try to find one of the groups that only have 5 members and see if they'll spill it.

[pwnsey]

YES!!! My meetup is in first place!!!

[Sematary]

I saw some questions earlier this week in regards to RP's fund raising numbers for this quarter.

I found this encouraging. We need to keep it up.

http://ronpauldelaware.wordpress.com/2007/08/29/top-25-ron-paul-groups-alone-raise-at-least-315000-in-10-days/


I still predict about 6.5 million. I'd like to see double digits though. that would be SWEET!

[austin356]

Glad to see people giving to the official campaign.

I have given zero dollars this quarter; But have spent 1/2 of my entire income on Ron Paul this Ron Paul that.

[Sematary]

Glad to see people giving to the official campaign.

I have given zero dollars this quarter; But have spent 1/2 of my entire income on Ron Paul this Ron Paul that.

Give twenty bucks anyway - you'll sleep better at night. ;)

[Bro.Butch]

I still predict about 6.5 million. I'd like to see double digits though. that would be SWEET!

It has to reach 10 if we are to win. I'll tell you how it might can be done. These $1,000 fundraisers Dr. Paul is having in different cities is how it can be reached. The meetup groups in the area need to setup a program to invite all physicians, dentists, othodonist, etc within a fifty mile radius of the fundraiser location. Invite everyone in the medical profession and their spouse/dates. We would all be shocked at how many will show up and pay $2,000 if they are given enough notice ahead of time. People want to meet Presidential candidates and rub shoulders with other "movers & shakers". Invite EVERYONE associated in anyway with the medical fields within 50 miles (don't cull anyone). If we had their country club friends names and addresses they would show up also! The funds would start to come. It's easier to get people to donate money that have money ! Don't you agree !?!?!?!-lol

[beermotor]

Well, if we assume that your Meetup has donated $1000 as a whole [with a single donation of $150 from you, that doesn't seem unreasonable, since they're in the top 25 after all] that would make the total from the top 25 right now about $106,000.

That figure gives us an average contest donation per meetup member of about $22, which doesn't seem that crazy to me. It also leaves it a lot of room to go higher, since it makes the Austin group have an average donation of less than 5 bucks.

Given what I donated ($200) and what I have seen people donating in Atlanta (294, think we're number 8 or something), I think an average of $22 is quite low.

[wgadget]

Great idea, Bro. Butch. The country club thing would probably hit a lot of small business owners as well, who also could easily cough up the $1000 to meet Ron Paul. They are also a natural fit with his message of lower taxes and limited government.

I've often thought that Chambers of Commerce all over America would be great places to find Ron Paul supporters...

[Elwar]

The meetup groups in the area need to setup a program to invite all physicians, dentists, othodonist, etc within a fifty mile radius of the fundraiser location.

Don't forget Chiropractors. They don't tend to get any support from politicians and when they do they give them their full support.

My brother and sister are both Chiropractors, I had my brother part way sold on Ron Paul (he voted for Kerry last time) but he was probably holding off for whatever Democrat candidate...until I did some research on Ron Paul and natural medicine and Chiropractic and e-mailed it to him. Now he sends me stuff he finds about Ron Paul from his natural medicine websites. My sister was an easy sell, she leans libertarian but is an active Republican.

[nullvalu]

I think we're going to see a HUGE push here at the end from the top 5 or so groups all competing for top spot.. I know i've emailed everyone I know who'd be interested from Chicago to donate in a pledge we have going.. :D

[bc2208]

Now he sends me stuff he finds about Ron Paul from his natural medicine websites. My sister was an easy sell, she leans libertarian but is an active Republican.

I found out about RP originally from Mercola.com

[Johnnybags]

rounding out to nearest 10k, 20k raised. So the numbers are correct, there is well over 300k so far at a bare minimum. Its well beyond that. Philly had to raise 4k or so to take away the top spot from Irvine recently. They were 3153 behind and now 797 ahead. So at a bare minimum, knowing Philly is in the lead and the bottom group is 12862 behind we can safely guess Philly is at least 4k + 12862 ahead. Its obviously more than that since Philly did not just begin at zero before pulling in the 4k. The run is on and it looks like a minimum 1/2 million haul is in order, which makes the other candidates salivate. The good Dr should go on tour at small theaters and charge 11,500 for an appearance and the proprietor can charge admission. He is a star now.

[kylejack]

I'll check with Jonathan.

[empirenine]

Haha, this thread is a clusterf@ck. I think I'm dumber after having read through the whole thing.

[kylejack]

Haha, this thread is a clusterf@ck. I think I'm dumber after having read through the whole thing.
Yeah, its some pretty shady calculating. Ideal would be to peg 25th place at $25 or so and compile from there. Then you'd have a true "at least" number for the top 25 groups. Jonathan has shared details on the data with me in the past, though, so let's see what he has to say about this.

[Johnnybags]

Yeah, its some pretty shady calculating. Ideal would be to peg 25th place at $25 or so and compile from there. Then you'd have a true "at least" number for the top 25 groups. Jonathan has shared details on the data with me in the past, though, so let's see what he has to say about this.


Facts are facts, Philly picked up 4k to take the lead from Irvine at a minimum between reports. If last place is 12k plus behind philly then philly has 16k+(way more) and the bottom has at least 4k, no way around that fact if the reports from the Paul website are correct. Estimate the bottom at 5k, that is conservative and I gaurantee the bare minimum.

[kylejack]

Facts are facts, Philly picked up 4k to take the lead from Irvine at a minimum between reports. If last place is 12k plus behind philly then philly has 16k+(way more) and the bottom has at least 4k, no way around that fact if the reports from the Paul website are correct. Estimate the bottom at 5k, that is conservative and I gaurantee the bare minimum.
If last place is $4,000, 20th place is $4,717...which is impossible because 20th place cannot be any more than $4,600 due to contribution caps.

Irvine may have had money bounce out due to limits or other reasons. If last place is $25, they could still be 12k behind Philly.

[FluffyUnbound]

If last place is $4,000, 20th place is $4,717...which is impossible because 20th place cannot be any more than $4,600 due to contribution caps.

Irvine may have had money bounce out due to limits or other reasons. If last place is $25, they could still be 12k behind Philly.

I think the "# of members" thing may not line up to the # of donors. Many meetups are pulling in donations from other meetups to pool them.

[FluffyUnbound]

Yeah, its some pretty shady calculating. Ideal would be to peg 25th place at $25 or so and compile from there. Then you'd have a true "at least" number for the top 25 groups. Jonathan has shared details on the data with me in the past, though, so let's see what he has to say about this.

Right, but we've been doing this over successive days. The last place meetup right now, Quad City, hasn't been in last place all along. Based on successive sets of data, I am extremely confident that Quad City can't have raised less than $557.

That would put the top 25 current total at $112,356.

And that's the total only if 4 days ago the #25 meetup was at $1.

Sorry, I know I'm making the clusterfuck worse.

[kylejack]

Right, but we've been doing this over successive days. The last place meetup right now, Quad City, hasn't been in last place all along. Based on successive sets of data, I am extremely confident that Quad City can't have raised less than $557.

That would put the top 25 current total at $112,356.

And that's the total only if 4 days ago the #25 meetup was at $1.

Sorry, I know I'm making the clusterfuck worse.

The tight bunching of the lowest groups leads me to believe its somewhere around the 100ish zone. How are you sourcing Quad City at $557?

[Johnnybags]

If last place is $4,000, 20th place is $4,717...which is impossible because 20th place cannot be any more than $4,600 due to contribution caps.

Irvine may have had money bounce out due to limits or other reasons. If last place is $25, they could still be 12k behind Philly.

then. Its impossible for philly to gain 4k(fact) on Irvine, be in first place and the 25th place guys 12k+ behind and not have at least 4k. The number of members means nothing since than can collect from anyone. Philly did gain 3,940 between reports. Of couse its more than that in total because philly did not start at zero and collect the 3,940. I do not know how high the numbers are but I do know the bottom is not anywhere near 25.00 and most likely is far closer to a minimum of 5k. philly was 3,153 behind total x and now 797 ahead is the minimum x . If #25 is 12k+ behind we know philly has at least 16k and the bottom at least 3,940. We know its far more since X was a postitive number greater zero than a few days ago.

[kylejack]

then. Its impossible for philly to gain 4k(fact) on Irvine, be in first place and the 25th place guys 12k+ behind and not have at least 4k. The number of members means nothing since than can collect from anyone. Philly did gain 3,940 between reports. Of couse its more than that in total because philly did not start at zero and collect the 3,940. I do not know how high the numbers are but I do know the bottom is not anywhere near 25.00 and most likely is far closer to a minimum of 5k. philly was 3,153 behind total x and now 797 ahead is the minimum x . If #25 is 12k+ behind we know philly has at least 16k and the bottom at least 3,940. We know its far more since X was a postitive number greater zero than a few days ago.
You're not really explaining yourself well.

At original link, Davenport Iowa had at least $277 on that day, because they were $276 ahead of last place. (So true, we know last place it at least $277). At that time, Davenport was $9840 behind the leader, so the leader (Irvine) had at least $10117. Philadelphia had at least $6,964 as they were $3,153 behind leader (Irvine). Now Philadelphia is $797 ahead of Irvine...so they gained $3,950 on Irvine either through their own gains or possibly some Irvine losses. So Philadelphia is probably at least $10,914 or so. Obviously its got to be more than that, because Davenport is trailing the lead by $12,862. But none of that ever indicates that Davenport MUST have $4,000.

[FluffyUnbound]

The tight bunching of the lowest groups leads me to believe its somewhere around the 100ish zone. How are you sourcing Quad City at $557?

They've been as high as 23rd. Based on the distances between them and the last place team over the last several reports, I have them at a minimum of $557 now. At one point the distance between 23rd and 25th was over $300.

[kylejack]

They've been as high as 23rd. Based on the distances between them and the last place team over the last several reports, I have them at a minimum of $557 now. At one point the distance between 23rd and 25th was over $300.

Then isn't $300 the highest you could peg them?

Not trying to be a jerk, I just want firm estimates so that we don't have another "$5 million in Q2!" fiasco.

[FluffyUnbound]

Then isn't $300 the highest you could peg them?

Not trying to be a jerk, I just want firm estimates so that we don't have another "$5 million in Q2!" fiasco.

No, because of two factors: the last place team has been changing, so the bottom can't be $1.

Also, several reports ago I had someone self-report a $150 donation to a Meetup group that wasn't in the top 25. For that report, I put the bottom meetup group at $151. Since that time since the bottom group has changed, which has allowed me to bounce up the minimum slightly a couple of times. It's not 100% foolproof, because I haven't been doing it for every report since the beginning. But the fact that the data keeps rolling over, and groups change places in the standings, slowly grinds up the minimum number for the bottom group.

ALTHOUGH, I have to admit I haven't considered the notion that a group's donation amount could go down. Can you withdraw a donation here? I didn't think that was possible, but maybe you can.

[kylejack]

ALTHOUGH, I have to admit I haven't considered the notion that a group's donation amount could go down. Can you withdraw a donation here? I didn't think that was possible, but maybe you can.
You can't withdraw a donation, but the campaign is obligated to return it if they discover you're over the cap, a foreign national, a corporation, or otherwise prohibited from donating. Also, payments bounce sometimes ala Paypal, check, etc.

[The Only Woj]

just because a meetup has 5 people doesn't mean more than 5 individuals donated through that meetup.

but if I had to guess, one of the groups has 2 people. if only they donated, the #1 has raised 16745

[Paulitician]

I did some number cruching myself, using $13,000 as the top amount for the sake of it, and came up with $100,000+ as the total amount too. That's very good. $315,000 is absolutely ridiculous.

[Original_Intent]

If the Meetups below the top 25 even average a measly $100, that's close to $80,000 more. Yes I know a lot won't get $100, but I also bet a lot get over $100 but dont make the top 25.

[Johnnybags]

I did some number cruching myself, using $13,000 as the top amount for the sake of it, and came up with $100,000+ as the total amount too. That's very good. $315,000 is absolutely ridiculous.

There is almost 5k members in the top 25 meetup groups alone, + any family friends, non official members. You think they averaged 20 bucks trying to win the prize? I say it is roughly 3x that for the top groups. Never mind anyone we cannot see. NY.Cal demographics are quite good for raising good size avg donations. Not sure he will make the mil when all is said and done but He will clear 500k IMHO. We have got to be near 300k now and the last jockeying should give us a boost. Tomorrow should be interesting, Phlly passed Irvine by 3,940 in a day.

[abstrusezincate]

You have to remember that the top groups in this competition are definitely aggregate efforts. I know this because these groups are trying to pull as many people as they can to win. (For instance, Philly has the support of Pennsylvania, which is why you see no donations from any other group in our state.)

Still, I imagine that this contest has raised a good deal of money, and I'm sure the bottom groups, even where they are, must have given something. I expect the figures may go insane tomorrow because no one really knows what it will take to win.

[BrazilLuLa]

I imagine the figures will double tomorrow, but all in all, I don't think we'll end up even close to the aggressive goal of 1 million raised.

Being a poor young kid, I gave only 30 bucks. Hey it's something.