PDA

View Full Version : Lepard opinion of financial crisis




llepard
07-23-2008, 06:04 AM
This is not investment advice, it is an opinion.

This message is depressing. I you do not want to contemplate a serious financial downturn stop reading here.

Everyone on this forum is unique and I owe this forum a debt from the assistance they gave me when I wrote the advertisemnts. People on this forum are good people and I want to help if I can.

Don't let this rally in stocks and drop in gold and oil fool you.

It is a sucker's rally.

I have gotten extremely defensive. I have no long stock positions and that is my business!

I buy gold and silver on a regular basis.

I think we are going to have a bank and stock market collapse and I think it is coming soon. (weeks or at most months) I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I am right. There are too many problems coming to a head all at once and the Government will make them worse, rather than propose real solutions.

How did we get here? Think coin in the fuse box, or giving the drunk another drink after he falls down. The natural corrective processes of the market have been blocked. Therefore, a lot of inbalances have built up and now an earthquake of pressure is going to hit us.

The bad news is times will be tough. The good news is a lot of very rich people will be made poor, and perhaps more humble. Related good news is that we and Ron Paul will be proven right, and perhaps we will be listened to in the future.

People who can work will be fine.

Stocks will go down. Way down. The dollar will go down, perhaps to zero. Bonds will be worthless. Most debt will be uncollected. Think the 1930's only worse.

I just put in an order for a Prius. Gas prices will go higher. I bought a bicycle, just in case.

I am cutting expenses mercilessly and raising cash from all sources.

I only have a few debts but I am not paying them off. It will be easier to pay them off in the future with worthless dollars. Of course I have the resources to make the monthly payments and will not lose the underlying assets.

Think dollar worthless. Assets fine after 5-10 years, but in the interim going down in price, so don't lose them. Think essentials going up in price. Food, oil. Think gold and silver going up in price.

I would not have more than $100,000 in one bank. Even that I would be careful on because a bank holiday could close the banks for weeks.

I would not do business with any NY or money center bank. They all have derivative exposure.

I would have some food stored away.

Like I say, I hope I am wrong.

But, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

Also, he who panics first panics best. Get out in front of the crowd, panic early.

Best, LWL

Indy Vidual
07-23-2008, 06:15 AM
...Also, he who panics first panics best. Get out in front of the crowd, panic early....

Great post llepard, thanks.
Here is some good advice you don't see too often:

If you do not drink, buy several large Rum bottles.
They will rise in value, and will be easy to trade for food, or other valuables.

If you do drink:

Either quit soon, or buy several large Rum bottles. You'll be wanting them later this year. ;)

rancher89
07-23-2008, 06:15 AM
I'm with you

Kludge
07-23-2008, 06:26 AM
Great post llepard, thanks.
Here is some good advice you don't see too often:

If you do not drink, buy several large Rum bottles.
They will rise in value, and will be easy to trade for food, or other valuables.

If you do drink:

Either quit soon, or buy several large Rum bottles. You'll be wanting them later this year. ;)

I'd bet cigarettes would fare better in bringing me a feast.

rprprs
07-23-2008, 06:34 AM
llepard, thanks for your post. I think your points are well taken, and I am not at all fooled by the recent stock rally or drop in gold/oil prices.

But I do have one question on your advice about not having more than $100,000 in any one bank. I assume you take this position in relation to FDIC insurance. If I am correct, could you expand on that a bit. I see your disclaimer about a bank holiday, but my concern is that while FDIC may protect depositors in the event of a single, individual bank collapse, if there are more widespread failures, wouldn't FDIC insurance provide false hope. As I understand it, there is no way FDIC insurance could come anywhere close to covering all obligations in the worse case scenario.

rancher89
07-23-2008, 06:41 AM
llepard, thanks for your post. I think your points are well taken, and I am not at all fooled by the recent stock rally or drop in gold/oil prices.

But I do have one question on your advice about not having more than $100,000 in any one bank. I assume you take this position in relation to FDIC insurance. If I am correct, could you expand on that a bit. I see your disclaimer about a bank holiday, but my concern is that while FDIC may protect depositors in the event of a single, individual bank collapse, if there are more widespread failures, wouldn't FDIC insurance provide false hope. As I understand it, there is no way FDIC insurance could come anywhere close to covering all obligations in the worse case scenario.

my thoughts exactly, better off in silver and gold if you have that much wealth

raystone
07-23-2008, 07:44 AM
llepard - thank you for the extremely important and well written post

remember, this is from a financially successful (and probably very smart) man, please read again and take heed

SnappleLlama
07-23-2008, 07:47 AM
I hope to someday know what it's like to have $100,000 in one bank...

llepard
07-23-2008, 07:51 AM
llepard, thanks for your post. I think your points are well taken, and I am not at all fooled by the recent stock rally or drop in gold/oil prices.

But I do have one question on your advice about not having more than $100,000 in any one bank. I assume you take this position in relation to FDIC insurance. If I am correct, could you expand on that a bit. I see your disclaimer about a bank holiday, but my concern is that while FDIC may protect depositors in the event of a single, individual bank collapse, if there are more widespread failures, wouldn't FDIC insurance provide false hope. As I understand it, there is no way FDIC insurance could come anywhere close to covering all obligations in the worse case scenario.

I agree. Best would be to have no money in banks at all. My only point is that I am confident that insured depositors will be made whole by the Government. They have said repeatedly that they will protect them and protect the system. Where will the money come from? They will print it. What will that money be worth? Anyone's guess, but less than it is worth today, that is for sure. The problem is that printing money will destroy the purchasing power of the dollar. So, yes, your point is correct. No money in banks if possible. But for many that is impractical.

The FDIC knows there is a problem and is trying to get ahead of the curve.

Check out this website.

http://www4.fdic.gov/dip/index.asp

Presently only Indymac is on the drop down list. How much you wanna bet that that list grows quickly?

Another piece of interesting information. I was at my coin dealer yesterday buying gold coins. He is a big dealer in the Boston area. I asked him what his volume was this year compared to last. He said he had sold 4-5x more coins this year than last year (not sure if this year to date or 6 month v. 6 month data) but either he is up 4x or 8x. Boston area has a lot of intelligent wealth. What does that tell you about how people with money in Boston are voting on the value of the dollar versus gold. I sense a trend in motion. Remember the trend is your friend.

LWL

Ninja Homer
07-23-2008, 08:03 AM
The FDIC knows there is a problem and is trying to get ahead of the curve.

Check out this website.

http://www4.fdic.gov/dip/index.asp

Presently only Indymac is on the drop down list. How much you wanna bet that that list grows quickly.

LWL

Wow, a .gov list of failed banks with only 1 bank in the dropdown. Thanks for that link, but I don't know whether to laugh or scream about it... I guess a little of both.

liberteebell
07-23-2008, 08:08 AM
I hope to someday know what it's like to have $100,000 in one bank...

$100,000 anywhere would be nice right about now.

llepard, thank you for your post. I hope you're wrong too but as one of those middle class folks who has, up until the past year done modestly well (wasn't in debt, didn't have money worries), I believe you're probably correct. :(

I realize you're not offering investment advice (I don't have anything to invest anyway) but could you offer an opinion to those of us who don't have money to buy gold and silver, who maybe have small retirement investments (such as 401ks) that are tanking and who can hardly make ends meet as it is? I'm already cutting expenses mercilessly.

Also, could you clarify your statement "people who can work will be fine"? I and many others I know are working our butts off now but it's not enough to cover the nut.

I'd rather panic early too...

rprprs
07-23-2008, 08:09 AM
llepard, thanks for your reply. And thanks for that FDIC link. That is very telling. While Indymac is the only institution currently listed, you can bet such a website wouldn't exist if they thought that was going to be the only casualty. As you say, ahead of the curve, indeed.

llepard
07-23-2008, 08:12 AM
$100,000 anywhere would be nice right about now.


I realize you're not offering investment advice (I don't have anything to invest anyway) but could you offer an opinion to those of us who don't have money to buy gold and silver, who maybe have small retirement investments (such as 401ks) that are tanking and who can hardly make ends meet as it is? I'm already cutting expenses mercilessly.

Also, could you clarify your statement "people who can work will be fine"? I and many others I know are working our butts off now but it's not enough to cover the nut.

I'd rather panic early too...

If you have a 401K or IRA that holds stocks or bonds convert it into cash. ASAP

Buy gold and silver with the proceeds.

Or, if you can use the IRA or 401K to buy RYTPX. a fund that will go up 2x what the S&P 500 index does. eg: index down 10%, fund up 20%. OR SRS, an etf that is 2x the inverse of the reit index.

Kade
07-23-2008, 08:14 AM
Also, he who panics first panics best. Get out in front of the crowd, panic early.



That's great advice.

http://www.madisonavenuejournal.com/images/Bank%20Run%20New%20York%20April%201933.JPG

LibertyEagle
07-23-2008, 08:22 AM
Do you think IRAs and 401Ks will be safe? I've always worried that they might be confiscated at some point and because of that, there may be a time when it makes sense to pay the penalty and get out of them.

llepard
07-23-2008, 08:24 AM
Do you think IRAs and 401Ks will be safe? I've always worried that they might be confiscated at some point and because of that, there may be a time when it makes sense to pay the penalty and get out of them.

Agree. But we are not there yet IMHO. I am watching though.....

LibertyEagle
07-23-2008, 08:32 AM
What are your thoughts about money markets and how to stay safer with them?

Sandra
07-23-2008, 08:35 AM
Thanks LL for the post. We are currently trying to ready our community fo hard times. Most people don't want to hear he hard truth of future events but hopefully they will come around. Only thing we can do for sure is ready ourselves.

llepard
07-23-2008, 08:35 AM
What are your thoughts about money markets and how to stay safer with them?

I would avoid them. Some hold bad paper and derivatives. Not all, but some.

amy31416
07-23-2008, 08:39 AM
Thanks for all the information so far. I have a mother who's just hit retirement age, she'll have my father's pension (he's deceased), social security and savings. Her house is paid off. Would you think that gold/silver investments are also good for her? I already got her stocked up on canned goods, etc.

We also just got notice that heating costs will be going up by 50% this winter, so I'm getting her old windows replaced, getting the chimney swept and will be stocking up on wood for her fireplace. I'm doing this under the "guise" of being a good daughter and haven't been mentioning anything about bank runs, economic collapse, etc. because I don't want to worry her, but I'd also like to do everything I can to insulate her. Any suggestions are welcome.

Kade
07-23-2008, 08:40 AM
Thanks for all the information so far. I have a mother who's just hit retirement age, she'll have my father's pension (he's deceased), social security and savings. Her house is paid off. Would you think that gold/silver investments are also good for her? I already got her stocked up on canned goods, etc.

We also just got notice that heating costs will be going up by 50% this winter, so I'm getting her old windows replaced, getting the chimney swept and will be stocking up on wood for her fireplace. I'm doing this under the "guise" of being a good daughter and haven't been mentioning anything about bank runs, economic collapse, etc. because I don't want to worry her, but I'd also like to do everything I can to insulate her. Any suggestions are welcome.

We can probably save money on heating costs if we keep using excessive amounts of fossil fuels. Just a thought.

LibertyEagle
07-23-2008, 08:41 AM
PM sent to you, llepard.

amy31416
07-23-2008, 08:44 AM
We can probably save money on heating costs if we keep using excessive amounts of fossil fuels. Just a thought.

One that doesn't make much sense given that I was talking about getting her house better insulated and making more consistent use of her fireplace. Not sure what you're getting at. She can't afford solar panels and windmills are not exactly a good option in the 'burbs.

Kade
07-23-2008, 08:45 AM
One that doesn't make much sense given that I was talking about getting her house better insulated and making more consistent use of her fireplace. Not sure what you're getting at. She can't afford solar panels and windmills are not exactly a good option in the 'burbs.

I was joking. :cool:

lucius
07-23-2008, 08:48 AM
Thank you, always enjoy your posts. I read this from Chapman,

"Swiss government bonds denominated in Swiss francs are cheap to buy and can cover your larger blocks of cash if you are sufficiently affluent."

Any thoughts?

acptulsa
07-23-2008, 08:52 AM
I am not as knowledgeable as you, llepard, but it smells exactly the same way to me. But between the fact that this is the usual deal and the fact that this is an election year and TPTB will be trying to resurrect the economy, I wonder if the real crash is going to happen at the traditional time of around election day. Both '87 and '29 were late in October, and it seems that most major corrections are right there with it. Any thoughts on that?

Johnnybags
07-23-2008, 08:52 AM
My best guess as to what the best investment is would be utilizing all those retirement funds into a small, self sufficient, few acre cabin/home away from major cities but close enough to a small one with a rail system. Onsite water,fertile land and stocked with barterable goods. I do not know the mechanics of it but have heard that you can invest these retirement funds as such.
I expect after Lepards forecast begins to unfold, mass migration from zombified cities will begin.
A cheap acerage self sufficient cabin with all the necessities in place will be valuable. The worst thing that can happen is you end up with a nice place to vacation if the forecast does not come true and if it does, you are well prepared and have a quickly appreciating asset and peace of mind.

Google real estate IRA or 401k and see the mechanics of it.

My guess is Lepard saying people that can work will be fine is people that can actually work(weight X distance), not type on a keyboard. Just a guess.

constituent
07-23-2008, 08:53 AM
if there are more widespread failures, wouldn't FDIC insurance provide false hope. As I understand it, there is no way FDIC insurance could come anywhere close to covering all obligations in the worse case scenario.

well, they could print up a bunch of new money, but then you'd be holding 100,000 worthless debt certificates that no one was willing to accept.

ladyjade3
07-23-2008, 09:09 AM
I think we're all going to be ZILLIONAIRES soon. Just like the Zimbabweans. They are all RICH RICH RICH!

jacmicwag
07-23-2008, 09:10 AM
Great post. One question - if a person were to save all their coins (pennies, nickles, dimes and quarters) over the course of several years, will they still have value after a dollar crash? These are not pre-64 era silver coins however.

acptulsa
07-23-2008, 09:13 AM
I think we're all going to be ZILLIONAIRES soon. Just like the Zimbabweans. They are all RICH RICH RICH!

lol. Don't know where their next meal is coming from, but they're zillionaires...

jacmicwag, probably a little, but since they are one alloy sandwiched on a layer of another metal in the middle, they will be very hard to smelt for their components. You'd wind up with an alloy with few big advantages unless you can precipitate the metals and seperate them.

ladyjade3
07-23-2008, 09:15 AM
Great post. One question - if a person were to save all their coins (pennies, nickles, dimes and quarters) over the course of several years, will they still have value after a dollar crash? These are not pre-64 era silver coins however.

Coin metal content has to change every so often to keep up (down) with the sinking value of the dollar. Newer coins are pretty much zinc, aluminum, whatever trash metal they can get for cheap. pre-1983 pennies are worth a couple cents. Pre-1964 dimes are worth more than a dollar each. There are websites that track this kind of thing. It's very interesting.

I would think saving coins could be good, but it really depends on when they were minted.

Kade
07-23-2008, 09:15 AM
Great post. One question - if a person were to save all their coins (pennies, nickles, dimes and quarters) over the course of several years, will they still have value after a dollar crash? These are not pre-64 era silver coins however.

Of course they still have value.

http://www.multnomah.edu/VOICE/1199/photos/music.gif

runningdiz
07-23-2008, 09:25 AM
Thanks for that informitive read llepard best of luck to everyone.

Johnnybags
07-23-2008, 09:30 AM
Coin metal content has to change every so often to keep up (down) with the sinking value of the dollar. Newer coins are pretty much zinc, aluminum, whatever trash metal they can get for cheap. pre-1983 pennies are worth a couple cents. Pre-1964 dimes are worth more than a dollar each. There are websites that track this kind of thing. It's very interesting.

I would think saving coins could be good, but it really depends on when they were minted.

Yes, its subsidized and is our only non fiat currency. Copper and Nickel but this is the last year.

AFM
07-23-2008, 09:47 AM
Take a look at SKF. Ultrashort Financials
Twice the inverse of the DJ Financials Index
Its gotten hammered in the last week with the faux-rally so this is a good time to get in.

Also DGP is GLD x2

Just my 2 cents

Mckarnin
07-23-2008, 10:33 AM
Pretty freaky that they made such a convenient site to look up whether your failed bank is insured.


Here's a question...what would you advise poor people to do? My family is young, my husband is a grad student...we don't have thousands of dollars anywhere. Buy food and hope that enough people's ships will be sinking that the mortgage company won't be in a hurry to boot us? :)





I agree. Best would be to have no money in banks at all. My only point is that I am confident that insured depositors will be made whole by the Government. They have said repeatedly that they will protect them and protect the system. Where will the money come from? They will print it. What will that money be worth? Anyone's guess, but less than it is worth today, that is for sure. The problem is that printing money will destroy the purchasing power of the dollar. So, yes, your point is correct. No money in banks if possible. But for many that is impractical.

The FDIC knows there is a problem and is trying to get ahead of the curve.

Check out this website.

http://www4.fdic.gov/dip/index.asp

Presently only Indymac is on the drop down list. How much you wanna bet that that list grows quickly?

Another piece of interesting information. I was at my coin dealer yesterday buying gold coins. He is a big dealer in the Boston area. I asked him what his volume was this year compared to last. He said he had sold 4-5x more coins this year than last year (not sure if this year to date or 6 month v. 6 month data) but either he is up 4x or 8x. Boston area has a lot of intelligent wealth. What does that tell you about how people with money in Boston are voting on the value of the dollar versus gold. I sense a trend in motion. Remember the trend is your friend.

LWL

UtahApocalypse
07-23-2008, 10:56 AM
Why use a band aid in a arterial bleed? Thats exactly what the FED has been doing for months, if not the last few years. i think now though were up to full out gauze and tape. That baby is still going to soak through. I have only heard one Dr. talking about sewing up the wound and treating the cause of the bleeding. too bad the others in the operating room have no clue.

I wish you all luck in the future, I fear that this patient is bleeding to death and soon dying.

Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice
07-23-2008, 11:10 AM
Bush has bankrupted every company he has run, possibly intentionally to make mergers and consolidations easier. He's doing the same thing now so we can get in on Canada and Mexico's vast wealth of natural resources.

Todd
07-23-2008, 12:20 PM
Great post llepard, thanks.
Here is some good advice you don't see too often:

If you do not drink, buy several large Rum bottles.
They will rise in value, and will be easy to trade for food, or other valuables.

If you do drink:

Either quit soon, or buy several large Rum bottles. You'll be wanting them later this year. ;)

LOL...good advice

also buy into French Bordeaux's. They are worth beau coup after several yeas.. Can't imagine what they will be if there is a crash.

CUnknown
07-23-2008, 12:52 PM
I'd like to put in my 2 cents. Not disagreeing with you, llepard, but just sort of wanting a clarification. You say that stocks will plunge in value, but at the same time that we'll be seeing mega-inflation so much that the dollar nearly becomes worthless. Oil and gold will skyrocket.

I'm just trying to digest this. Will the end come in fire, or ice? Inflation, or deflation? Isn't inflation supposed to be "good" for the value of stocks? As in, at least their nominal value? If it's deflation we're worried about, then why is gold going to skyrocket? Shouldn't the (at least nominal) value of gold fall, at least a little, during deflationary times? It might gain real (deflation-adjusted) value, but fall nominally, slightly. Stocks would fall a lot, and would lose real value, and tons of nominal value.

Or is what we're going to see sort of a combination of inflation and deflation? Perhaps the money supply shrinks (deflation), but prices of gold, oil, and food rise (inflation)? This is pretty much what has been happening so far this year, to my understanding.

I've been reading everything I can possibly find about this topic, trying to understand it. I still don't quite get it.

I agree we are in for some hard times ahead. But, the combination of plunging stocks and skyrocketing gold/oil/food ... well ... it's just not easily understandable to me in terms of either inflation or deflation. I know that has been what has been going on, though.

My personal opinion -- as long as we don't see a massive deflationary wave (any more than we already have), I feel that the Fed can handle things, at least for now, by pumping massive cash into the markets (running the printing press). Of course, this will doom us long-term as governmental debt piles up and becomes unsustainable. But, we're not to that point yet. You said, this crisis would hit within weeks or months ... I agree with you about the crisis, but instead think it will take years (maybe 2-5 years).

If you really do think it will happen in a period of months, what do you think will precipitate this crisis? I am one of those "hopeful" people who actually believe the stock market is turning around, at least for the remainder of the year. Next year, who knows. The year after that, I'm with ya running for the hills.

freelance
07-23-2008, 01:45 PM
I agree. Best would be to have no money in banks at all. My only point is that I am confident that insured depositors will be made whole by the Government. They have said repeatedly that they will protect them and protect the system. Where will the money come from? They will print it. What will that money be worth? Anyone's guess, but less than it is worth today, that is for sure. The problem is that printing money will destroy the purchasing power of the dollar. So, yes, your point is correct. No money in banks if possible. But for many that is impractical.

The FDIC knows there is a problem and is trying to get ahead of the curve.

Check out this website.

http://www4.fdic.gov/dip/index.asp

Presently only Indymac is on the drop down list. How much you wanna bet that that list grows quickly?

Another piece of interesting information. I was at my coin dealer yesterday buying gold coins. He is a big dealer in the Boston area. I asked him what his volume was this year compared to last. He said he had sold 4-5x more coins this year than last year (not sure if this year to date or 6 month v. 6 month data) but either he is up 4x or 8x. Boston area has a lot of intelligent wealth. What does that tell you about how people with money in Boston are voting on the value of the dollar versus gold. I sense a trend in motion. Remember the trend is your friend.

LWL

WHY do you think it's a dropdown list? LOL!

Thanks for an honest, sensible post, Llepord. Good to see you.

ashura
07-23-2008, 02:02 PM
Here's a question...what would you advise poor people to do? My family is young, my husband is a grad student...we don't have thousands of dollars anywhere. Buy food and hope that enough people's ships will be sinking that the mortgage company won't be in a hurry to boot us? :)

+1?

mconder
07-23-2008, 02:29 PM
The good news is a lot of very rich people will be made poor, and perhaps more humble.

The richest will be made richer. They will buy up U.S. assets with cheap dollars. We will be left slaves on the land our fathers conquered.

torchbearer
07-23-2008, 02:33 PM
The good news is a lot of very rich people will be made poor, and perhaps more humble.

The richest will be made richer. They will buy up U.S. assets with cheap dollars. We will be left slaves on the land our fathers conquered.

Economic Conquest.
For more details: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=2618811931680926682

libertarian4321
07-23-2008, 02:42 PM
If you have a 401K or IRA that holds stocks or bonds convert it into cash. ASAP

Buy gold and silver with the proceeds.

Or, if you can use the IRA or 401K to buy RYTPX. a fund that will go up 2x what the S&P 500 index does. eg: index down 10%, fund up 20%. OR SRS, an etf that is 2x the inverse of the reit index.

If things get as bad as you say, won't ammunition be worth more than gold?

torchbearer
07-23-2008, 02:46 PM
If things get as bad as you say, won't ammunition be worth more than gold?

if you own a gun. Yes.
though gold could be molded into bullets and even caissons. not the best metal for ammo, but it can be used in a pinch.

Lord Xar
07-23-2008, 03:17 PM
Does anybody feel this is just a precursor to the Amero and the desire for a "stabalized" currency?

And will the American people have the will and foresight to oppose it?

************

So can I get a concensus here:

1. Remove any dollars from banks (if feasible) and what - store them in a safe at home?
2. Remove monies from 401k and buy gold/silver
3. Stock up on some foodstuffs.
4. Buy ammo.

Also, with the money removed from the bank - do we sit on that, or buy Hard GOLD and SILVER - that you actually have in hand? If so, any recommendations?

JaylieWoW
07-23-2008, 03:55 PM
Does anybody feel this is just a precursor to the Amero and the desire for a "stabalized" currency?

And will the American people have the will and foresight to oppose it?



Provided the latest season of American Idol isn't underway...

Acala
07-23-2008, 04:06 PM
We are currently trying to ready our community fo hard times. Most people don't want to hear he hard truth of future events but hopefully they will come around. Only thing we can do for sure is ready ourselves.


Yup. Our former Ron Paul meetup, now the Campaign for Liberty Meetup, is getting serious about building local community survival skills and contacts - rain harvesting, gardening, Community Supported Agriculture, etc. At my house I put up a PV system, got some chickens, planted a garden, and am installing a rain harvesting system myself. Next I hope to help others do the same.

LibertyEagle
07-23-2008, 04:09 PM
Yup. Our former Ron Paul meetup, now the Campaign for Liberty Meetup, is getting serious about building local community survival skills and contacts - rain harvesting, gardening, Community Supported Agriculture, etc. At my house I put up a PV system, got some chickens, planted a garden, and am installing a rain harvesting system myself. Next I hope to help others do the same.

Neat. I wish you lived in Texas.

llepard
07-23-2008, 06:16 PM
I'd like to put in my 2 cents. Not disagreeing with you, llepard, but just sort of wanting a clarification. You say that stocks will plunge in value, but at the same time that we'll be seeing mega-inflation so much that the dollar nearly becomes worthless. Oil and gold will skyrocket.

I'm just trying to digest this. Will the end come in fire, or ice? Inflation, or deflation? Isn't inflation supposed to be "good" for the value of stocks? As in, at least their nominal value? If it's deflation we're worried about, then why is gold going to skyrocket? Shouldn't the (at least nominal) value of gold fall, at least a little, during deflationary times? It might gain real (deflation-adjusted) value, but fall nominally, slightly. Stocks would fall a lot, and would lose real value, and tons of nominal value.

Or is what we're going to see sort of a combination of inflation and deflation? Perhaps the money supply shrinks (deflation), but prices of gold, oil, and food rise (inflation)? This is pretty much what has been happening so far this year, to my understanding.

I've been reading everything I can possibly find about this topic, trying to understand it. I still don't quite get it.

I agree we are in for some hard times ahead. But, the combination of plunging stocks and skyrocketing gold/oil/food ... well ... it's just not easily understandable to me in terms of either inflation or deflation. I know that has been what has been going on, though.

My personal opinion -- as long as we don't see a massive deflationary wave (any more than we already have), I feel that the Fed can handle things, at least for now, by pumping massive cash into the markets (running the printing press). Of course, this will doom us long-term as governmental debt piles up and becomes unsustainable. But, we're not to that point yet. You said, this crisis would hit within weeks or months ... I agree with you about the crisis, but instead think it will take years (maybe 2-5 years).

If you really do think it will happen in a period of months, what do you think will precipitate this crisis? I am one of those "hopeful" people who actually believe the stock market is turning around, at least for the remainder of the year. Next year, who knows. The year after that, I'm with ya running for the hills.

Your view may be correct. It may take years.

Here is my scenario and why I believe it will happen this way. This is just a wild ass guess based on 30 years experience in the markets. It is better than most forecasts but not perfect.

1. We know the economy is not going up. There is no income growth, asset appreciation, or wealth being created.

2. If it is not going up it is flat or going down.

3. The governement is lying about the statistics. Unemployment is 12% v. 5% because they changed the measure. Google Shadow Government Statistics, John Williams. CPI is actually 12% not 2 core or 5 headline. Again see SGS.

4. We have deflation and inflation. The deflation is in assets, houses, cars, land etc. The inflation is in essentials. In part this inflation is just depreciation of the dollar. This trend will continue.

5. How did we get here? Fiat currency. Too much debt. Coins in the fuse box so no corrections.

6. Things are going down and they are going down at an increasing rate. Watch the news. The crisis are getting closer together.

7. The men who run the show and know the most are scared. Watch Bernacke and Paulson on TV, they look terrified. They know what is happening, but are lying about it. Not long ago they said the housing crisis was contained and there would be a second half recovery. How is that working out?

8. The scales are falling from the eyes of the people. They realize something is wrong. (85% say we are on the wrong course) The emperor (Federal Government) has no clothes. The response of the Government is, "hey the economy is fine" who are you going to believe me or your lying eyes. People are going to take actions to defend themselves economically and that means cutting back. This will increase unemployment, decrease purchases, depress house prices further and the cycle feeds on itself.

9. The stock market discounts the future. 30 year trend lines are being broken. We are at an Elliott Wave 3 of 3 scenario. Read Prechter's elliott wave book and or subscribe to Robert McHugh.

10. Things can and probably will spin rapidly out of control. But I hope not.

I hope your scenario takes place, that is a long slide over a period of time. Why? People will have more time to adjust to the pain.

Just my thoughts. Hope that clarifies the inflation deflation thing a bit.

To summarize. Deflation now. Government response, print money. Hyperinflation to follow. Think Weimar republic.

Good luck

LWL

To your direct questions:

More specifically gold will skyrocket in deflation because it is not someone elses liability and it is money good. Everyone will want it. In the 1930's the last period of deflation gold went up.

Stocks will go down at first because people will need money and will sell stocks. Yes they represent real productive assets with earnings power, but the earnings will be going down and the multiples will contract. In the middle of this depression there will be a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy stocks and get very wealthy.

Lord Xar
07-23-2008, 06:25 PM
Your view may be correct. It may take years.

Here is my scenario and why I believe it will happen this way. This is just a wild ass guess based on 30 years experience in the markets. It is better than most forecasts but not perfect.

1. We know the economy is not going up. There is no income growth, asset appreciation, or wealth being created.

2. If it is not going up it is flat or going down.

3. The governement is lying about the statistics. Unemployment is 12% v. 5% because they changed the measure. Google Shadow Government Statistics, John Williams. CPI is actually 12% not 2 core or 5 headline. Again see SGS.

4. We have deflation and inflation. The deflation is in assets, houses, cars, land etc. The inflation is in essentials. In part this inflation is just depreciation of the dollar. This trend will continue.

5. How did we get here? Fiat currency. Too much debt. Coins in the fuse box so no corrections.

6. Things are going down and they are going down at an increasing rate. Watch the news. The crisis are getting closer together.

7. The men who run the show and know the most are scared. Watch Bernacke and Paulson on TV, they look terrified. They know what is happening, but are lying about it. Not long ago they said the housing crisis was contained and there would be a second half recovery. How is that working out?

8. The scales are falling from the eyes of the people. They realize something is wrong. The emperor (Federal Government) has no clothes. The response of the Government is, "hey the economy is fine" who are you going to believe me or your lying eyes.

9. The stock market discounts the future. 30 year trend lines are being broken. We are at an Elliott Wave 3 of 3 scenario. Read Prechter's elliott wave book and or subscribe to Robert McHugh.

10. Things can and probably will spin rapidly out of control. But I hope not.

I hope your scenario takes place, that is a long slide over a period of time. Why? People will have more time to adjust to the pain.

Just my thoughts. Hope that clarifies the inflation deflation thing a bit.

To summarize. Deflation now. Government response, print money. Hyperinflation to follow. Think Weimar republic.

Good luck

LWL

To your direct questions:

More specifically gold will skyrocket in deflation because it is not someone elses liability and it is money good. Everyone will want it. In the 1930's the last period of deflation gold went up.

Stocks will go down at first because people will need money and will sell stocks. Yes they represent real productive assets with earnings power, but the earnings will be going down and the multiples will contract. In the middle of this depression there will be a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy stocks and get very wealthy.

Hey - thanks for the advice. So, would you suggest allocating how much into gold?

I KNOW you are not giving money advice and you are only speculating on opinion for yourself. But I am curious, if you had - lets say 100k in cash, sitting in a bank. What would be your steps for financial stability and reducing the hit that you say might happen?

llepard
07-23-2008, 06:30 PM
Hey - thanks for the advice. So, would you suggest allocating how much into gold?

I KNOW you are not giving money advice and you are only speculating on opinion for yourself. But I am curious, if you had - lets say 100k in cash, sitting in a bank. What would be your steps for financial stability and reducing the hit that you say might happen?

I would have at least 20% of liquid long term cash assets in gold coins. I do.

Recognizing that they can go down with zero intent to sell them if they do. They have been money for 5,000 years. They will be money when the dollar is the equivalent of the Confederate currency.

I would take another 20% and buy a 2x reverse index stock fund. RYTPX is one. S&P goes down 10% RYTPX goes up 20%. (and vice versa). I would keep balance in cash. I would have a year of food in my house.

If you are more aggressive you can increase these percentages and keep less cash. BTW, in cash i mean in a foreign currency. The dollar is going to go down. Cash dollars will be a disaster. Cash in a stable foreign currency will hold value. My favorites are the Chinese RMB and the Swiss Franc.

sunshine05
07-23-2008, 06:41 PM
Thank you for the information. I have a question on buying gold and silver. Would you recommend buying ETF or the actual coins? Any advice would be much appreciated.

raystone
07-23-2008, 07:54 PM
bump

Vali
07-23-2008, 08:44 PM
I have been thinking along the same lines as I watch the market. Thanks L.!

Indy Vidual
07-23-2008, 09:02 PM
...In the middle of this depression there will be a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy stocks and get very wealthy.
1) Timing will be difficult
2) Will stocks be trading in Dollars or Ameros? :eek:

CUnknown
07-23-2008, 09:09 PM
Thanks for the insight, llepard. I'm pretty new to investment, and it's good to have the benefit of your experience. You're definitely right that it's pretty clear to everyone that things aren't quite right right now. Something just doesn't feel right. I was born in '75 ... was this the way things felt back then, or is this worse? You say that 30 year trend lines are being broken? That is pretty bad..

I don't know who to be scared for more, me or my parents. Before, I assumed that my generation would take the brunt of things ... but, my parent's generation is going to be hit hard. They trust the government way too much, I think. If they are counting on social security, a pension, or medicare or something like that.. I really feel that in a few years, all of those things could be gone or basically worthless even if they're still there. My parent's aren't poor, but I just don't think they're going to get the retirement they have planned for all these years and that they deserve.

As far as my generation, it's gonna be tough, too. But at least by the time we're older, you gotta hope that things have settled down by then. If we can weather the storm for a decade or two, we'll be okay, I imagine.

The more things go, the more it seems that things are happening quicker than anyone thought. I'm pretty damn scared, to be honest. :(

axiomata
07-23-2008, 09:16 PM
I would have at least 20% of liquid long term cash assets in gold coins. I do.

Recognizing that they can go down with zero intent to sell them if they do. They have been money for 5,000 years. They will be money when the dollar is the equivalent of the Confederate currency.

I would take another 20% and buy a 2x reverse index stock fund. RYTPX is one. S&P goes down 10% RYTPX goes up 20%. (and vice versa). I would keep balance in cash. I would have a year of food in my house.

If you are more aggressive you can increase these percentages and keep less cash. BTW, in cash i mean in a foreign currency. The dollar is going to go down. Cash dollars will be a disaster. Cash in a stable foreign currency will hold value. My favorites are the Chinese RMB and the Swiss Franc.

I have been 90% convinced of this philosophy for half a year but haven't acted because of that other 10% and more importantly, because I don't actually know how. I've just graduated and started a full time job. My savings is minimal so options that require high minimums prevent me from diversifying satisfactorily. Also, my questions of "how" are a matter of technique as well. How do I get the cash in my checking/savings into commodities, foreign currencies, and reverse funds with the lowest fees and easiest procedure for an amateur?

AFM
07-23-2008, 09:26 PM
Sign up for a broker like Scottrade
You can then purchase commodities/currency funds like FXF (swiss franc), GLD, SLV, etc
Thats how I do it.
Unless you want to hold the physical product

jkm1864
07-23-2008, 09:39 PM
It's going to be worse than what You say it is. Imagine a society where gas is too expensive and the trucks just hang it up. There will be no food and no small farmers to help us out this time around. Who is preparing I mean it who is no one is except for us. My whole family thinks I'm funny and a little paranoid and I am constantly telling them buy food stock up. I am sure I'll be feeding their worthless asses real soon and whats sad is they have no where near the debt I have and could stock up alot faster than I could. I am sure I'll abandon my house and move in with the inlaws because there will be safety in numbers. I would say that would be the best bet take in You're relatives and make sure their all packing because the more people You have the better.

jonahtrainer
07-23-2008, 10:47 PM
I agree. Great post. The Summer Dollar Evaporation (http://www.runtogold.com/Run_To_Gold/Run_To_Gold_Blog/Entries/2008/6/28_Summer_Dollar_Evaporation.html) is underway.

Perry
07-24-2008, 12:42 AM
Thanks llepard.

The damage has already begun yet I can't help wonder if there will be something that triggers a huge one day collapse similar to what happened on black Thursday(Thursday, Monday & Tuesday) of 1929.
Actually I'm not even sure this is possible. If I remember correctly there are mechanisms in place that automatically stop the market.
I agree that this is a suckers rally. It has been done again and again and again over the years.

muh_roads
07-24-2008, 12:47 AM
I only have a few debts but I am not paying them off. It will be easier to pay them off in the future with worthless dollars. Of course I have the resources to make the monthly payments and will not lose the underlying assets.

My first thought when reading this was "should I max out credit cards and buy gold/silver with the credit?"

Risky, but tempting.

I mean, if you're going to have debt, might as well be in worthless dollars, yes?

Danke
07-24-2008, 12:50 AM
My first thought when reading this was "should I max out credit cards and buy gold/silver with the credit?"

Risky, but tempting.

I mean, if you're going to have debt, might as well be in worthless dollars, yes?

Why not. It is unsecured debt. How are they gonna collect if the SHTF? Heck, people walk away for credit card debt all the time now. And months later, they are getting offers in the mail. Go figure...

CzargwaR
07-24-2008, 02:26 AM
I work at a local bank in CHicago area. Although the bank has very strong fundamentals and didn't give out those bad loans, it's still affected since "the rich" clients can't sell their houses. To prepare and to deal with whatever happens, the banks just set aside 80% of their yearly earnings...

llepard
07-24-2008, 03:51 AM
Thank you for the information. I have a question on buying gold and silver. Would you recommend buying ETF or the actual coins? Any advice would be much appreciated.

Coins are better because the ETF's can go bankrupt and might be caught up in the derivatives mess. Having said that, I own some of the etf's in some accounts because they are more convenient than coins. Diversification. Coins would be better but some of each make sense.

WRellim
07-24-2008, 05:32 AM
Larry's advice is solid -- although I would call it as "conservative CAUTION" and a wise "battening down the hatches" before the storm rather than as a "PANIC" -- and I've been shifting in a similar "defensive" fashion for several months (well actually slowly over past 3 years... since before Bernanke got in but MUCH more so in past few moths).
:)

I think the *key* thing to remember here is that what you are trying to do is PRESERVE your current "saved" wealth -- or as much as can be preserved through the current "upheaval" & any approaching "financial storm" (whether you picture it as a tsunami or hurricane ...or as a blizzard or "long-hard winter" or a biblical "seven years of famine" -- or perhaps a "wildfire" for those in California... whatever you want for a metaphor -- the goal is to endure it and come out the other side while suffering as little LOSS as possible).
:cool:


Exactly what is currently happening -- Inflation? how much? Is it just the Fed or is it dollars being "repatriated" by foreigners buying American firms and other stateside assets? (More on this presently***).

Or conversely, we certainly have some "deflationary" tendencies as well -- banks trying to pull in reserves, tightening loans, etc. Industry & business cutting back or delaying purchases and investments, laying off workers or cutting hours & holding off on raises (squeezing the employees). I'm even seeing clients delaying payments of invoices again (something I haven't seen since 87 & 88).
:confused:



So the thing is that you want REAL diversity of liquidity here -- not the "fake" diversity of mutual funds and 401K's indexed to the DJI -- but rather diversity that allows you to:


Keep your head above water financially; :cool:
As much as possible to "maintain some comforts" as well THROUGHOUT the storm. :p
Preserve your savings -- shift about 50% of your saved wealth in things OTHER than US Dollar units; i.e. in something that is "un-hyper-inflatable." :)


The FIRST goal means fill up the larder (with stuff you WILL consume ANYWAY) -- canned and dry foodstuff that your family typically uses are a solid idea here. Especially important are the things that are a) non-perishable, b) come from far away, or c) are likely to go WAY up once panic sets in... things like coffee, tobacco, canned (+ dried) meats & fruit, plus staples like sugar, flour & especially spices (!) etc.


The SECOND goal ...of "maintaining some comforts" means a lot of the consumable we all just "take for granted" that they'll be cheap -- everything from cleaning products (laundry soap, Lysol spray, etc) to things like Toilet Paper, Kleenex, Paper Towels & Napkins.

Plus "comfort" can also mean "standard" technology things that are now "bargains" (via the currently super-cheap imports) and whose REAL-WORLD inherent value will likely stay solid over time Microwave Ovens, Coffeemakers, etc (and as opposed to fast changing, quickly obsoleted things like computers or TV's).

And not to go "nuts" but making certain your major appliances (water heater, furnace, water softener, stove & refrigerator) are all in "top shape" and able to last the next 5 to 10 years. (Why? Simple, you can go buy an "extra" toaster or coffeemaker right now for $10... they are rather unlikely to get much cheaper, but very likely to go up dramatically, in 2 years that same $10 toaster or coffeemaker could easily cost $100 or more. Likewise, a new water heater might be $400 now, but will likely be two, three, five, or even ten times that price in a year or two).



The point of the above is NOT to become a huge "hoarder" of anything in particular (you're goal is NOT to buy enough inventory to open an appliance store in mid-depression) -- but rather to realize that "goods" maintain their value -- with the current US system of "Just-in-Time" and all businesses maintaining LOW levels of inventories (JIT literally "bites the big one" in a hyper-inflated economy, "inventory turns" are worthless unless you CAN restock immediately, wealth is STABLE commodities instead of DEVALUED currency units)... If and when the bottom drops out of the economy, and imports become expensive, replacing such items will become EXPENSIVE. Plus "extras" of these types of goods are easily useful for barter as well.



And the THIRD goal -- that of shifting about 50% of your LIQUID savings into things OTHER than US Dollar denominated things (i.e. into foreign currencies, gold & silver coin, food, "store-able consumables" & supplies, etc) will help you MAINTAIN the value of that 50% REGARDLESS of whether we have deflation/inflation or even (worst case) Weimar/Zimbabwe style hyperinflation.



And yet also... NOTHING is lost to you via the above steps even if NONE of the above "scary stuff" happens... if the Fed can somehow manage to "pull a rabbit from the hat" and we can avoid a crack-up and instead allow things to "slowly correct" over a few years (albeit with the demographic troubles ahead and a likely "NewNewDealDeal" via Obama/McInCain we still got MAJOR problems ahead) -- You will still be able to EAT all of that food, and USE any/all of those consumables, or replace the toaster or coffeemaker (the current ones will die eventually) with the "new" one from the attic... etc.

The worst is that you *might* have missed out on a small "recovery" increase in the stock market (say 5% or 10% increase).

And sure, there will likely be some people who will make gobs of money shorting the market, picking up real-estate cheap at foreclosures, or other assets and even businesses at "fire-sale" prices... but chances are YOU are *NOT* one of those people (and if you *try* to be you are MORE likely to mistime it and lose your shirt than you are to end up as the next "Mr. Potter" from "It's a Wonderful Life" ).


Again... goal is to weather the storm in a "calm" fashion... and come out the other side higher and drier than the neighbors that CHOOSE not to do likewise.


*** BTW, despite what others (or even THEY themselves may think) Bernanke and the "Fed" are *not* 100% in control of whether the dollar inflates anymore... anyone "holding" a major amount of US dollars can cause dramatic "inflation" and devaluation simply by either cutting back of their buying of Treasuries (remember value is "at the margin") or even choosing to "spend" some of those holdings back into the US Economy...

On the Timing of that... well, THIS IS SHEER SPECULATION ON MY PART, but I have long felt that China will reach a certain "tipping point" at which the U.S. will no longer be THAT important of a market to them -- a point at which they will have already absconded with the majority of the "family jewels" in the forms of engineering, technology, manufacturing equipment and "know-how" -- a point that they will want to "cut the apron strings" (or the proverbial "umbilical cord"). WHEN they have reached that point, while not wishing the US any harm (we will still be an important customer) -- they will no longer want to suffer the "loss" that their dollar holdings cause them. (To date, by buying and holding dollars... they have also "caught" our entire manufacturing, engineering & technology base... cheap at twice the price!)

My key point is that I think China has ALREADY reached that "tipping point" but has been purposefully "holding back" -- not for our sweet sake -- but rather because they want to be "accepted" as "having arrived" as THE major force in the world... which is the whole "goal" of their hosting the Olympics, and which they have been very UNWILLING to jeopardize. The 2008 Beijing Olympics are China's literal "Coming of Age Ball" -- and much like Nazi Germany's 1936 Olympiad (although with LESS antagonism) are intended as the showcase of their country to everyone else.

Once that has been completed... once they have "shown the world" then they will no longer need to maintain their "peg" against the dollar. They MAY still buy Treasury securities, but they will also want to "repatriate" a lot of those dollars... and a downturn in the US economy that would cause "fire-sale" prices on US Firms and assets would play right into that as an "extra benefit." And if China does it, Japan and other countries will follow suit -- better to get 50 or 75 cents on a dollar NOW than 10 or even only 5 cents later on -- they are like a pack of wolves circling a downed animal... once ONE of them goes for a chunk of meat, the others will go too, it's just that no one wants to be first.

llepard
07-24-2008, 05:57 AM
Brilliant!

Very well said WRellim. Thanks for elaborating on what I said. I agree 100% with all of these suggestions.

Excellent analaysis of the fact that it is out of the FED's control and excellent thoughts on the China timing angle. I had not thought of that and it fits perfectly with what I see which is a crash in the next few months.

I also love the pack of wolves analogy. So true.

People......listen up.....

WRellim has a very clear view of what is going to happen. Follow his steps.

LWL

Mark
07-24-2008, 09:51 AM
** I began to write this before http://www.ronpaulforums.com/image.php?u=4305&dateline=1214009262 (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/member.php?u=4305) WRellim (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/member.php?u=4305) posted, many similar ideas contained herein. **

I'm addressing more towards those with little to invest, and/or a chaotic situation, - less towards a general economic downturn.

(I tried to make a quick read in bold)

For those with little to invest, start with the basics, food/water.




Here's a question...what would you advise poor people to do? My family is young, my husband is a grad student...we don't have thousands of dollars anywhere. Buy food and hope that enough people's ships will be sinking that the mortgage company won't be in a hurry to boot us? :)

Don Harrold just made a 1:56 long video about mortgage debt. Basically says if you can't afford your mortgage, sell.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRA1pdY7CCg

Home prices will likely continue to fall. Why be stuck paying for a $200,000 home when in time you can buy it back for $150,000? Or less.

Don describes it as, if you don't own your home out-right, you're not a homeowner, you're a "mortgage payer".
Most people are losing their financial arses because they're stuck paying a mortgage on a house that's higher than the house is worth.
One can always rent until the prices stabilize.

I suppose it comes down to how much equity you have. If the house is 85% paid off, probably best to keep it.
If it's 15% paid off and prices continue to fall, you'll possibly lose your equity relative to value, so, if you sell now, no loss.
At least you can pocket the extra equity now and use it to buy at the bottom.

~~~~~~~~~~~

In general think "survival". Prepare for the worse, hope for the best.

The previous posts/scenarios do not include the possibility of chaos in terms of an attack, false-flag or real, here in America.

If a nuke or two goes off, and/or an EMP weapon ect, who knows what happens? No electricity? No food in stores?
No communications? Martial Law?

Round-ups and shipment to the "Detention Facillities" (http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=13554) Halliburtan are building?
http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=13554

Some "inside" sources say Bush Co. have already decided to attack Iran sometime before January.
If so, then what? Retaliation on American soil? All-out WWIII/IV?

Pure economic collapse will be a cake-walk compared to war at home.

What to do? Think basics. Food, water, vitamins, candles/flashlights, wind-up/solar shortwave-capable radio with light. (http://www.ccrane.com/radios/wind-up-emergency-radios/freeplay-plus-radio.aspx)

~~~~~~~~

Cut-back expenditures:

Reduce expenses to the max. Every dollar you spend less per day equals a yearly savings of $365.

Pack your lunch, quit buying that daily soda/coffee at the convenience store. Quit buying "fast-food".

Who really needs - going to "the movies", "the bar", restaurants? Corporate music, video games, magazines. A fancy car, the "latest" fashions?

Entertain yourself naturally, not by buying artificial entertainment, what Hollywood and the "Establishment" is selling (and brainwashing with).

Find your happiness "inside", not from buying it.

As much as possible, buy, stock-up and eat only what's on sale at the grocery store. Pass up name-brand items.
Get proteins from items other than more expensive meat.

Keep in mind - do you "need it", or just "want it"?

Generally, reduce expenses till it hurts.

Billions of people around the world live on essentially rice, bread, or less.

And if you get used to living on less while you have the choice, the easier it'll be if/when you don't have a choice.


~~~~~~~~~~~

Investments ect:

1. Water - most basic need - if water is cut-off or contaminated, you won't last long without it.

Get quality water, not the crap they sell in small plastic bottles at the store,
and especially not the fluoride-poisoned polluted crap that comes out of the tap.

I use LeBleu (http://www.lebleu.com/).. distilled pure water. Comes in 5 gallon bottles for less than $8 each.

http://www.lebleu.com/

Estimate a gallon a day per person. Water may not be cut off, but if it is.. you'll need it more than anything.

Spending $75-$100 to get 50+ gallons of clean/pure water that'll keep a family of 4 alive for a few weeks is prudent.

Get a canteen(s) and/or plastic containers like the collapsible portable camping type for emergency travel.

2. Food - you can get dehydrated food that lasts for years and is good to eat even if nothing happens. http://www.efoodsdirect.com/

And vitamins to make up for loss of food nutritional value.

If/when you can't afford due to (hyper)inflation, or even get food in stores at all, you'll need a back-up supply to live,
$1000 or so spent now will buy you a few months of life, later it may buy you a few days.

Camping gear to cook with outside is good to have as well.


3. Power/light - generator, batteries, flashlights, radio, candles. If power goes out, your whole world will be rocked.
You can't get gas at the pumps if there's no power to pump it ect ect.

Imagine your world without electricity and prepare for it.

4. Clothes - basic outside-elements protective gear - if you're homeless for some reason, you'll need to be able to survive outside.

5. Shelter - got a tent?

6. Protection - If you have supplies, you may have to defend them.

7. Get in shape - you may have to run to get away from danger, you may have to walk for miles carrying things.
It's essential to be able to handle physical exertion.

6. Means of exchange - Some extra cash at home plus small value silver coins or other barter-able items people would trade for
for things you might need.

7. "Go" pack - If the SHTF, you may need to move fast.
Some kind of back-pack ect filled with a few days of essentials that you can grab-n-go is prudent to have prepared.

~~~~~~~~~

In other words -

-having electronic digits saved up in a bank or invested won't do you a bit of good if
- food supply/water supply/communications/electricity is shut-down.

First and foremost, you need essentials that you can physically touch.

And a person with only food and water will live a lot longer than a person with only gold and silver coins.

In fact, a little food and water could become more valuable than a little gold and silver.

Anything physical is better than electronic digits.


~~~~~~~~~


The cities could become a trap - no supplies, riots, martial law, targets in a war. Basically areas of general chaos.
Prepare an escape plan.

A few acres in the country, (owned or pre-identified) - with a hand-pump water well or other water supply -
that you can retreat/escape to for safety - may help you survive.

Kind of like a house fire escape plan...
if you plan ahead for how to leave population centers at a moments notice, and where to go,
you'll have a much better chance for escape and survival.

Then you won't waste time trying to figure out what to do, you'll know what to do.


~~~~~~~~~~

Short answer -

Storable water and food should be your first investment.

Electronic digits should be your last. (Bank accounts, stocks ect)

Initial investments should be things you'll need or would use anyway, no matter what happens.

If you don't have much money, first buy things that will ensure your survival short-term,
and that you - can/will - use/consume - in any case.

Remember, it never hurts to prepare for the worse, though, continue to work for and pray for the best.

Always - don't panic, stay calm - and keep your wits about you. You'll need a cool and calm head to survive.

llepard
07-24-2008, 11:32 AM
Two excellent articles describing this financial situation today.

http://www.eurointelligence.com/#

See the articles by Satyajit Das.

WRellim
07-24-2008, 01:00 PM
Brilliant!

Very well said WRellim. Thanks for elaborating on what I said. I agree 100% with all of these suggestions.

Excellent analaysis of the fact that it is out of the FED's control and excellent thoughts on the China timing angle. I had not thought of that and it fits perfectly with what I see which is a crash in the next few months.

I also love the pack of wolves analogy. So true.

People......listen up.....

WRellim has a very clear view of what is going to happen. Follow his steps.

LWL


RE: China timing angle


The USA and European countries have hosted the Olympics so many times it's just a "ho-hum" thing to us (or in many cases a literal nuisance and annoyance!).

But the Chinese (people AND government) are a different story... they are really, REALLY excited about this, and have been working VERY hard for many YEARS now to put on the best possible "face".

This really can't be overemphasized. The Chinese REALLY want and need "Beijing 2008" to be the "kickoff" to a new "Chinese Century" (and let's be honest... they want a new Chinese dominated Millenium!)


Seriously, it is hard for us with our little +200 year history to envision the "mindset" of Chinese peoples regarding their own +3,500 to +5,000 to even +7,000 year history (from the time of the Pharoahs in Egypt straight through to modern days, different "dynasties" sure... but a continuous nearly-unbroken line of a "civilization" as a society and large nation.)

To the Chinese, their country *IS* (and always WAS) the dominant society on Earth -- it is the "Middle Kingdom" (between Heaven and Hell) ...and the last one hundred years or so, of China being a "third world country" are the real aberration.

Prior to that, China was for thousands of years, nearly always (within its own sphere) THE MOST IMPORTANT country; they were the largest, most innovative, highest technology, most organized, systematized, and (relatively) the most "peaceful" and prosperous civilization on the Earth.

They view the "west" and especially the US and Europe as the REAL "upstarts" -- when we think of them "stealing" our inventions of cars, computers, etc. -- well the Chinese think the opposite... "Hmmm, where did you get PAPER, PRINTING, GUNPOWDER, PORCELAIN, etc." -- literally we would not have toilets, much less toilet paper without the initial Chinese inventions, so the next time you ...well, thank the ancient Chinese inventors as well as Mr. John Crapper! (And before you talk about copyrights and patents... who exactly earns the royalties on Sun Tzu's "Art of War" or Lau Tzu's "Tao Te Ching" -- or how about the technology licenses for paper, gunpowder & porcelain?).

You see, while "patents and copyrights" are a good idea -- the "Disney-Forever" insanity is strangling OUR society AT LEAST as effectively as the Dowager Empress and Chairman Mao strangled China. (cf Gridlock Economy (http://www.gridlockeconomy.com/about.html) -- not necessarily advocating the book's solutions, but the diagnosis of the problem is correct).

If you take the long-term view of the world, and especially one that involves the demographics of the worlds larger populations... is it all that surprising that China (with nearly 20% of the worlds people) and India (with over 15% of the people) should in time "reclaim" greater significance in the world?


The continued dominance of the world by a country with only 5% of the people (USA) -- taking over from dominance by the people from a tiny island (Britain) which now has only 1% of the people living... or even before that from a group of other similar previous tiny countries (the Dutch, French, Spanish, Portuguese empires, etc)... just doesn't seem likely in a long-term "stability" sense.

But from a viewpoint of LIBERTY - the rise of China from its ashes is NOT a bad thing. Two hundred years ago, China was a constricted, stratified, almost "petrified" country that stifled innovation and business with an insanely large bureaucracy and endless array of rules and laws (remind you of anything? (http://www.gridlockeconomy.com/homepage.html)). The past 100 years have been a rough time for the Chinese people... the "enlightenment" and western-style ideas finally brought down the last of the "empire" dynasties, and they have been struggling with a host of intervening invaders, governments, philosophies and tyrants ever since.
China no longer seems bent on using the military... they have in the end chosen TRADE as their means of return to world prominence.


Sure they have a ways to go yet as far as freedoms are concerned (don't we all?) but over a BILLION people are now engaged in an inventive, entrepreneurial, modern manufacturing society... a "locomotive" of immense size for liberty.
So don't be surprised if 20 years from now some of the major "new" inventions (like the old ones of paper, porcelain, and printing) the ones that resolve energy and food problems end up coming from the land with 1/5 of the world's population... And yes the products you buy and use will probably have funny little squiggly characters on them... but is that really all that different from the 1,000's of obscure "icons" we already have on the buttons?

Well, I've digressed enough for one day (and way too much for one post)!

Cheers!

ItsTime
07-24-2008, 01:18 PM
dont forget to get your guns

Rhys
07-24-2008, 01:18 PM
I don't know how to say this without sounding like ghemenger, and I can't say much but there's another new bank collapse coming any day now. Let's just say a high ranking birdie told me that it's time for a bank run before the FDIC comes in.

This is very very soon and very very scary. For the first time, the collapse seems not only real, but imminent... I'm most pissed cause I'm only almost 30 and have to live with this crap (like most of us) durring my peak years. I've always wanted to become wealthy. Now I'll feel good to not go hungry.

ItsTime
07-24-2008, 01:20 PM
I don't know how to say this without sounding like ghemenger, and I can't say much but there's another new bank collapse coming any day now. Let's just say a high ranking birdie told me that it's time for a bank run before the FDIC comes in.

This is very very soon and very very scary. For the first time, the collapse seems not only real, but imminent... I'm most pissed cause I'm only almost 30 and have to live with this crap (like most of us) durring my peak years. I've always wanted to become wealthy. Now I'll feel good to not go hungry.

Ive been thinking the same thing. I have the most money saved I have ever had in my life and I am now thinking it will be toilet paper. I hate taking chances so I am scared to buy gold and silver. But at the same time believe things are going to get far worse. ESP if there is another terrorist attack, be it black flag or not.

I'm making another food run tomorrow. We have about a months worth of food I want 3 or 4 and I dont know if that will be enough.

amy31416
07-24-2008, 01:27 PM
Ive been thinking the same thing. I have the most money saved I have ever had in my life and I am now thinking it will be toilet paper. I hate taking chances so I am scared to buy gold and silver. But at the same time believe things are going to get far worse. ESP if there is another terrorist attack, be it black flag or not.

I'm making another food run tomorrow. We have about a months worth of food I want 3 or 4 and I dont know if that will be enough.

This stuff is disturbing, but it's better to know than not. I'm not personally afraid to invest in gold/silver/commodities--but I'm afraid to invest my mother's money in it and she's given me the reigns to invest for her. I am pretty torn about it.

It's one thing if it's my money, but if I sit on my hands and don't invest it for my mother and she loses everything, I'll blame myself. If I do invest in it for her and she loses money, I'll blame myself.

Many thanks to Lepard, Mark and Wrellim for their excellent posts.

acptulsa
07-24-2008, 01:31 PM
Ive been thinking the same thing. I have the most money saved I have ever had in my life and I am now thinking it will be toilet paper. I hate taking chances so I am scared to buy gold and silver. But at the same time believe things are going to get far worse. ESP if there is another terrorist attack, be it black flag or not.

Gold and silver are popular primarily for their safety. Some here exaggerate it--it does fluctuate--but it is about as stable as you could ask an investment to be. One thing to remember is that every disaster is rife with opportunity. When the fluctuation turns into a major correction, every solid company's stock will be on sale at clearance prices. Bargain time!

And, yes, at that moment (when it is far, far too late for any sensible person to jump into that market) your precious metals will be in demand--and up. Lots of money to snap up bargains with. If things go according to past trends.

raiha
07-24-2008, 01:43 PM
Llepard thanks. I don't have any money but im fit and healthy with a tent and we live in a food basket.

All i can say is i'm sorry after all the money you spent on the campaign, it did not come up trumps. Why do humans always have to learn the hard way????
Mace the force be with you and yours. Anyone want to come live in my foodbasket i will do all i can do to help you...find a wifie/ husband for you even and make you feel welcome. All you have to do is teach me about guns.LOL

acptulsa
07-24-2008, 01:57 PM
We have quite a breadbasket here, too. Believe me.

By the way, precious metals are stable but they don't pay dividends and it takes a correction of about 7.0 on the Richter Scale to get them to gain a whole lot of value. They are mainly useful for awaiting the correction--or spending after the fall of civilization (and I, for one, am not convinced society won't survive the next major correction).

Rhys
07-24-2008, 02:15 PM
we're not facing a correction. We're facing a collapse.

Gold and silver and oil are safe havens. It will be hard to lose money in gold. You are saving when you buy gold, not investing. It's like going into the basement for a tornado.

Now then, with the collapse of the dollar, the nominal value of gold will skyrocket while the purchasing power of gold will not. HOWEVER, the the US, the purchasing power of gold will APPEAR to increase greatly as the purchasing power of the dollar evaperates.

When the dollar is dead and buried, sell your gold and buy investments with the new currency. It's about timing.

But remember first, gold is a shelter from the storm, not an engine for growth. Gold is money. When you buy and hold gold, you're buying and holding money. The benifit, again, comes from this form of money NOT losing it's value while our dollar does.

If you have 10 oz of gold, you'll be able to buy 10 shares in the DOW index. Right now, it would take about 120 oz of gold to buy 10 shares. This is where the benifit comes from. This is why gold will APEAR to gain in value, cause you'll be able to buy more stuff with it than you can now.

When that stuff starts to regains it's NOMINAL value, you'll have enough REAL value to buy a bunch of it. That is investing for growth.

Another way to think of gold is, selling short the dollar (sorta). You sell dollars high and buy low again later.

Aldanga
07-24-2008, 02:18 PM
First off, many thanks to all of you for all your hard work and diligence.

I'm planning on going to college in the fall. I get tuition remission because my dad's a prof at a sister school, so my expenses are a little less than $7,000 a year. (I only have to pay a little less than half of that because of scholarships.)

I've talked to my younger brother a lot about the economy. He's already bought some gold with the money he has saved. The thing is, I don't really have enough money to pay for school and buy valuables.

What am I supposed to do?

acptulsa
07-24-2008, 02:18 PM
Another way to think of gold is, selling short the dollar (sorta). You sell dollars high and buy low again later.

Yeah, that's what I was trying to say. Well put.

acptulsa
07-24-2008, 02:21 PM
The thing is, I don't really have enough money to pay for school and buy valuables.

What am I supposed to do?

Yeah, fun dilemma. You're supposed to have a crystal ball that can tell you if your savings or your education will better help you weather the recession/coming depression. Don't let me lie to you about that.

Rhys
07-24-2008, 02:26 PM
First off, many thanks to all of you for all your hard work and diligence.

I'm planning on going to college in the fall. I get tuition remission because my dad's a prof at a sister school, so my expenses are a little less than $7,000 a year. (I only have to pay a little less than half of that because of scholarships.)

I've talked to my younger brother a lot about the economy. He's already bought some gold with the money he has saved. The thing is, I don't really have enough money to pay for school and buy valuables.

What am I supposed to do?

go to school. You're young. By the time you're 30, we'll have hit bottom and it should be good times for all. It wont be easy, but you'll be educated and poor. No where to go but up from there!

acptulsa
07-24-2008, 02:29 PM
go to school. You're young. By the time you're 30, we'll have hit bottom and it should be good times for all. It wont be easy, but you'll be educated and poor. No where to go but up from there!

Just don't get too esoteric a degree. Hard times tend to cut the fat out. Learn to do something that's always in demand.

Aldanga
07-24-2008, 02:32 PM
I'm planning on majoring in Political Science and Philosophy and Religion (with mostly philosophy) and a minor in economics (I would've triple-majored but my college doesn't have a pure economics degree). After I finish up my undergrad I desire to go to law school to study Constitutional Law.

How is that for an education?

Rhys
07-24-2008, 02:43 PM
I'm planning on majoring in Political Science and Philosophy and Religion (with mostly philosophy) and a minor in economics (I would've triple-majored but my college doesn't have a pure economics degree). After I finish up my undergrad I desire to go to law school to study Constitutional Law.

How is that for an education?

i dunno.... kinda thinky for this economy.

i'd skip the philosophy and religion and go straight for econ and law.

that's just if it were me, so you really have to decide for yourself what you want from life.

torchbearer
07-24-2008, 02:43 PM
I'm planning on majoring in Political Science and Philosophy and Religion (with mostly philosophy) and a minor in economics (I would've triple-majored but my college doesn't have a pure economics degree). After I finish up my undergrad I desire to go to law school to study Constitutional Law.

How is that for an education?

I learned more out of college than i did in it. Diversify your teachers to maximize how much you can learn.
Find who is speaking truth and who is repeating the matrix.
Find a mentor. (I found mine- kept in touch... and still do 'til this day.)

I've learned more from Ron Paul in the last year than i learned from all my political science classes combined.

Aldanga
07-24-2008, 02:54 PM
i dunno.... kinda thinky for this economy.

i'd skip the philosophy and religion and go straight for econ and law.

that's just if it were me, so you really have to decide for yourself what you want from life.

Yeah, I know; but I'm a serious InTJ. Thinking is what I do.

I may or may not drop the philosophy major. I've been thinking about that for a while and I've had people telling me that I should drop it. I'll just see if it's a waste of time or not (because I know I'm smarter than 85% of the people out there at the worst, it may be really dumbed down and below me). I'll see how it works out.

@Brent:

I know college is only the beginning. There is so much more I will learn from experience than from sitting in a classroom. I'm definitely a jack-of-all-trades, so my classes will be many. Rest assured I will do all you recommend. I've already been thinking about it.

jaybone
07-24-2008, 03:01 PM
My first thought when reading this was "should I max out credit cards and buy gold/silver with the credit?"

Risky, but tempting.

I mean, if you're going to have debt, might as well be in worthless dollars, yes?

if it is a low fixed and long term rate,
AND more importantly, you can service the debt for as long as you have to,
this is a reasonable strategy.

Dollars will not become worthless overnite. Remember, when you get most of your income from a job, you do not see the benefit of inflating debt UNLESS you get a raise. Lots of people are going to be losing jobs in the next few years. If it is possible that you will not be able to afford the payments, ie. lose your job, then the debt could really hurt you later.

torchbearer
07-24-2008, 03:02 PM
@Brent:

I know college is only the beginning. There is so much more I will learn from experience than from sitting in a classroom. I'm definitely a jack-of-all-trades, so my classes will be many. Rest assured I will do all you recommend. I've already been thinking about it.

I thought as you did... I wanted to take everything- major in everything. I finished in Sociology major/ Political Science major.
What i regret is not just getting through college and onto life itself. I played around.. changed majors several times.. etc...
Don't do that.

Also- my majors are basically worthless when it comes to making money in most local economies. Worthless.
I make my money fixing computers. A trade i picked up before college... i apprenticed under a guy named "Grumpy". I make a lot of money with this trade. I learned the basics in 6 months. Not 4 years. or 6 years (masters) 8 year (phd)
I consider myself a PHD of computer hardware. i get paid like a phd. so the value must be the same.
;)

all things to think about- not trying to run your life, just giving you some insight i've gained from my mis-steps.

WRellim
07-24-2008, 03:12 PM
First off, many thanks to all of you for all your hard work and diligence.

I'm planning on going to college in the fall. I get tuition remission because my dad's a prof at a sister school, so my expenses are a little less than $7,000 a year. (I only have to pay a little less than half of that because of scholarships.)

I've talked to my younger brother a lot about the economy. He's already bought some gold with the money he has saved. The thing is, I don't really have enough money to pay for school and buy valuables.

What am I supposed to do?

1) Get a decent bicycle. (If you want POWERED transport, then a Scooter or Motorbike instead of a car.)

2) Stock up (at least a bit) on some essentials. While you may not need them as food while attending college... they will be welcome during breaks/summer, and/or if you need to be someone's "guest" for a while you can bring something (and not be a TOTAL parasite).

3) Don't buy gold... for you, a small amount of SILVER COIN would be a much better bet (enough to pay for transport cross-country to some friend or relative's farm or business or something).


I'm planning on majoring in Political Science and Philosophy and Religion (with mostly philosophy) and a minor in economics (I would've triple-majored but my college doesn't have a pure economics degree). After I finish up my undergrad I desire to go to law school to study Constitutional Law.

How is that for an education?

Poli-Sci, Philosophy & Religion, with BS Keynesian Econ? May as well be an Art major!

And Constitutional Law may just be more like "Elizabethan history" by the time you get there. (Seriously, *is* there a Constitution anymore?)

STUDYING all of the above is a good idea... getting "schooled" in them is a different (and altogether less valuable) thing, IMHO.

Unless you are INTENDING to become a bureaucrat / apparatchik.
:(


There ought to be SOMETHING practical you can learn while you are there... than again, modern Uni's ... if absolutely NOTHING ELSE... then at least make certain your "philosophy classes" cover things like LOGIC and PROBLEM SOLVING.

And for crying out loud take some classes in (rudimentary) programming... we're talking so you can dig into and fix stuff in WHATEVER language the programs are written in, not just the flavor of the day... basically use it to learn HOW to think, and how to LEARN (not just be "taught" or "spoon-fed").

If you can take any classes dealing with China and India... take them. Learn Mandarin or Russian if you can (before you get too old like the rest of us).

Last, but not least, LEARN how to write good solid English text -- not high-falutin' nonsense -- but solid stuff that conveys meaning and gets your points across (this ability is much rarer than people think, most college grads these days can't write their collective way out of a cardboard box).

jaybone
07-24-2008, 03:14 PM
First off, many thanks to all of you for all your hard work and diligence.

I'm planning on going to college in the fall. I get tuition remission because my dad's a prof at a sister school, so my expenses are a little less than $7,000 a year. (I only have to pay a little less than half of that because of scholarships.)

I've talked to my younger brother a lot about the economy. He's already bought some gold with the money he has saved. The thing is, I don't really have enough money to pay for school and buy valuables.

What am I supposed to do?

Get storable food and do it asap; rice, beans, lentils, canned goods, canned meat (I never ate spam and think it's gross, but I have 20 cans in the basement).

Get some water in your home for short-term emergencies. Or a good filter like a Berkey.

Variable rate debt needs to be paid down as soon as your pantry is full. Fixed-rate long-term debt is OK.

Start building a physical cash reserve. Short term goal would be a weeks expenses (say if there is a bank holiday and all banks, atm's and cc's are offline), a few months is ideal.

Once you get that stuff taken care of, then start thinking metals.
I would start with pre-1964 us silver coins, you can get them on ebay or I like www.apmex.com this is the cheapest silver you can get for the dollar.
One face value dollar pre-1964 has about .72oz of silver, that's about $12.60 per dollar
Pre-1964
dime - $1.26
Quarter - $3.15
half - $6.30

This place:
http://www.silverandgoldaremoney.com/equivalents.php

give current spot prices for us and foreign coins.


I'm not going to tell you not to go to school, but you may want to seriously consider the economy of it.
If it is going to give you a useful skill that will lead to a more secure job, then go for it.

Aldanga
07-24-2008, 03:44 PM
I thought as you did... I wanted to take everything- major in everything. I finished in Sociology major/ Political Science major.
What i regret is not just getting through college and onto life itself. I played around.. changed majors several times.. etc...
Don't do that.

Also- my majors are basically worthless when it comes to making money in most local economies. Worthless.
I make my money fixing computers. A trade i picked up before college... i apprenticed under a guy named "Grumpy". I make a lot of money with this trade. I learned the basics in 6 months. Not 4 years. or 6 years (masters) 8 year (phd)
I consider myself a PHD of computer hardware. i get paid like a phd. so the value must be the same.
;)

all things to think about- not trying to run your life, just giving you some insight i've gained from my mis-steps.
The most times I'll change majors is one. I know what I want and I'm good at getting it. If I don't like something, I won't be there long.

I'm into computers myself. I'm pretty much a general handyman. I can fix anything you throw at me. (I've been doing that since I was six.) I'm going to keep up-to-date on PC stuff as well as general maintenance.

Being able to make money with non-money-making majors has been on my mind.




...

Poli-Sci, Philosophy & Religion, with BS Keynesian Econ? May as well be an Art major!

And Constitutional Law may just be more like "Elizabethan history" by the time you get there. (Seriously, *is* there a Constitution anymore?)

STUDYING all of the above is a good idea... getting "schooled" in them is a different (and altogether less valuable) thing, IMHO.

Unless you are INTENDING to become a bureaucrat / apparatchik.
:(


There ought to be SOMETHING practical you can learn while you are there... than again, modern Uni's ... if absolutely NOTHING ELSE... then at least make certain your "philosophy classes" cover things like LOGIC and PROBLEM SOLVING.

And for crying out loud take some classes in (rudimentary) programming... we're talking so you can dig into and fix stuff in WHATEVER language the programs are written in, not just the flavor of the day... basically use it to learn HOW to think, and how to LEARN (not just be "taught" or "spoon-fed").

If you can take any classes dealing with China and India... take them. Learn Mandarin or Russian if you can (before you get too old like the rest of us).

Last, but not least, LEARN how to write good solid English text -- not high-falutin' nonsense -- but solid stuff that conveys meaning and gets your points across (this ability is much rarer than people think, most college grads these days can't write their collective way out of a cardboard box).

I don't hold quite the poor view of the direction of the world, but I do take your comments to heart. I will consider them dutifully.

If anything, battling against a Keynesian economics professor is bliss to me and will refine my rhetorical skills. I love a great argument.

The reason I want to take Philosophy is for logic and reasoning. If it's not to my benefit, I'll drop them.

That is some good advice on the programming. My dad's a compsci prof, so I've been around computers my whole life (both front-end and back-end). I'll look into that. I definitely know how to think and learn. I've been homeschooled my whole life and have been practically teaching myself the last eight years.

Hmmm... I'd never thought about learning Russian or Mandarin. I'm going to a smaller private school and they only teach French and Spanish as foreign languages. The school is up in the Chicago suburbs. Are there possibilities for me taking one of those languages at another University or JuCo in the area? (I'm just thinking out loud right now.)

Yes, writing is of utmost importance to me. I understand the need for great writers and how easily a work, if done well, can convey an idea and convince an audience of its merit. I will not and do not neglect that portion of my study.

tangent4ronpaul
07-24-2008, 04:33 PM
I'll look into that. I definitely know how to think and learn. I've been homeschooled my whole life and have been practically teaching myself the last eight years.

Hmmm... I'd never thought about learning Russian or Mandarin. I'm going to a smaller private school and they only teach French and Spanish as foreign languages. The school is up in the Chicago suburbs. Are there possibilities for me taking one of those languages at another University or JuCo in the area? (I'm just thinking out loud right now.)



Unless you are a masochist, skip Mandarin.

The following book came out of MIT and was written so students could "pick up" the language on their own. It's an outstanding book / value. As far as I know, it's only available from one seller:

http://www.technicalbookstoreonline.com/cgi-bin/war455/index.html

Condoyannis, George E.
Scientific Russian: A concise description of the structural elements of scientific and technical German <==typo! (There is a German and French version in the series)
Huntington, NY: Krieger Publishing, 1978. new; reprint of John Wiley 1959 edition
Item # 028045

Price: $14.50

Then think about the Rosetta Stone program. It's kind of expensive, but good. You can probably find a used copy at E-Bay or get an academic discount on it from somewhere.

Third, those cheap tapes to teach a travel level of a language - basic vocabulary - they speak, you repeat... play them in your car when driving instead of the radio. It will give you some vocabulary and you will learn pronunciation.

Lastly, get some mirror texts - the same book in English and Russian. Ideally, children's books to start with. I believe Victor Kaplan is still in business
kamkin@sovusa.com / kamkin@igc.apc.org
also:
http://www.russianmegastore.com/?gclid=CIqanfXH2ZQCFQKcFQodw2H-kw
http://www.bukinist.com/?gclid=CP2SqunI2ZQCFQNvHgod-hBcKg
etc.
other sources are listed here:
http://www.faqs.org/faqs/cultures/russian/info/

After you get some vocabulary down, find and hang out with some Russians. There is probably a Russian culture Meetup in Chicago.

One other tip, once you get the printed character set down, under no circumstances should you immediately learn the cursive character set like many collage textbooks have you do. It will just confuse the heck out of you. If you want to learn the cursive characters, wait till you've been using the printed characters for months and they are second nature.

The way languages are taught in this country are horrible and not how languages are naturally learned.

hope that helps,

-n

Mark
07-24-2008, 05:12 PM
Unless you are a masochist, skip Mandarin.
The following book came out of MIT and was written so students could "pick up" the language on their own.

You can get a taste of Mandarin with MIT's Free OpenCourseWare. - (includes some mp3s)

"Foreign Languages and Literatures"

http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/index.htm

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

21F.101 Chinese I (Regular) (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-101Spring-2006/CourseHome/index.htm) Spring 2006
Course Highlights
This course features a downloadable textbook in the readings (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-101Spring-2006/Readings/index.htm) section, as well as several different types of study materials (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-101Spring-2006/StudyMaterials/index.htm).
Course Description
This subject is the first semester of two that form an introduction to modern standard Chinese, commonly called Mandarin. Though not everyone taking this course will be an absolute beginner, the course presupposes no prior background in the language. The purpose of this course is to develop:

Basic conversational abilities (pronunciation, fundamental grammatical patterns, common vocabulary, and standard usage)
Basic reading and writing skills (in both the traditional character set and the simplified)
An understanding of the language learning process so that you are able to continue studying effectively on your own.

The main text is Wheatley, J. K. Learning Chinese: A Foundation Course in Mandarin. Part I. (unpublished, but available online). (Part II of the book forms the basis of 21F.102 / 152 (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-102Spring-2006/CourseHome/index.htm), which is also published on OpenCourseWare.)




21F.102 Chinese II (Regular) (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-102Spring-2006/CourseHome/index.htm) Spring 2006
21F.103 Chinese III (Regular) (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-103Fall-2005/CourseHome/index.htm) Fall 2005
21F.103Chinese III (Regular) (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-103Fall2003/CourseHome/index.htm) Fall 2003
21F.104Chinese IV (Regular) (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-104Spring-2004/CourseHome/index.htm) Spring 2004


21F.104Chinese IV (Regular) (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-104Spring-2006/CourseHome/index.htm)Spring 2006
21F.105Chinese V (Regular): Chinese Cultures & Society (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-105Fall2003/CourseHome/index.htm)Fall 2003
21F.106Chinese VI (Regular): Discovering Chinese Cultures and Societies (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-106Spring2003/CourseHome/index.htm)Spring 2003


21F.107Chinese I (Streamlined) (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-107Fall-2005/CourseHome/index.htm)Fall 2005
21F.108Chinese II (Streamlined) (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-108Spring-2006/CourseHome/index.htm)Spring 2006
21F.109Chinese III (Streamlined) (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-109Fall-2005/CourseHome/index.htm)Fall 2005
21F.110Chinese IV (Streamlined) (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-110Spring-2004/CourseHome/index.htm)Spring 2004
21F.114Chinese VI (Streamlined) (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-114Spring-2005/CourseHome/index.htm)Spring 2005

21F.151Chinese I (Regular) (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-101Spring-2006/CourseHome/index.htm)Spring 2006
21F.152Chinese II (Regular) (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-102Spring-2006/CourseHome/index.htm)Spring 2006

21F.157Chinese I (Streamlined) (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-107Fall-2005/CourseHome/index.htm)Fall 2005
21F.158Chinese II (Streamlined) (http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/Foreign-Languages-and-Literatures/21F-108Spring-2006/CourseHome/index.htm)Spring 2006

Rhys
07-24-2008, 05:12 PM
i use rosseta stone for spanish and LOVE it. it's amazing how fast im learning spanish.

econ will server you very well. econ is the BEST degree to go into law school with, and I don't know why but that's what the lawyers say. also, you wont just learn keynesian. you'll learn economics axioms and such, then you can apply whichever theory you'd like. there will be tons of BS thrown your way, but you know austrian so you'll be fine. same with my sister who's econ major. she'll know what makes a good P/E ratio, and if she knows to use austrian principles in her job, she'll be very good at it.

philosophy is lame. it's interesting, but you wont learn how to think... you'll learn how to be snobby. just read some books about it instead. religion too.... WAY too subjective to trust your education to a school. you should learn yourself.

econ is science. learning from a school is good, like physics. then chose which theory you believe.... string theory or not, so to speak.

WRellim
07-24-2008, 05:56 PM
I don't hold quite the poor view of the direction of the world, but I do take your comments to heart. I will consider them dutifully.

Years... and mileage... makes everyone tired and cynical.




If anything, battling against a Keynesian economics professor is bliss to me and will refine my rhetorical skills. I love a great argument.

The reason I want to take Philosophy is for logic and reasoning. If it's not to my benefit, I'll drop them.

That is some good advice on the programming. My dad's a compsci prof, so I've been around computers my whole life (both front-end and back-end). I'll look into that. I definitely know how to think and learn. I've been homeschooled my whole life and have been practically teaching myself the last eight years.

Hey go for it. I never saw any merit come from arguing with people that have formal degrees (and least of all least Phd's) once they get the sheepskin they are nearly always unteachable and unreachable. (The old saying about teaching pigs to sing seems to fit).
:D

Being "around" computers is good. Understanding the hardware and OS stuff is also good. But understanding how to use the power of a computer to SOLVE problems... i.e. knowing how (properly written) programs are created to effectively solve problems; well, that is something different (and in my experience is something the vast majority of comp-sci grads never "get.")

But you give me some small hope for mankind in knowing you were homeschooled (I'm envious... I was essentially self-taught, but had to endure a 12 year sentence in the local "re-un-education" camp) -- and that you have learned how to learn means nothing can really stop you.




Hmmm... I'd never thought about learning Russian or Mandarin. I'm going to a smaller private school and they only teach French and Spanish as foreign languages. The school is up in the Chicago suburbs. Are there possibilities for me taking one of those languages at another University or JuCo in the area? (I'm just thinking out loud right now.)

Well French is pretty pointless (fun for reading Hugo and Verne, but otherwise?) Spanish might help in Central & South America, and I suppose in California or the southern US (although Portuguese would be better -- Brazil is another up-and-coming economic nation).

I just think we need to start getting prepared for the fact that a billion Chinese are becoming technically savvy. There will soon be (if there are not already) more Chinese engineers and scientists than any other language group... and if we think they are going to continue writing all of their technical papers in English; well I've got a bridge to sell on some pretty swampland, too.

I said "Mandarin" but I really don't know specifics. It is probably already too late at college age to become fluent, but I just think that even rudimentary knowledge of Chinese writing (and customs, etc) would open a lot of possibilities in business.

Much less point in learning any Euro languages... they are all niche compared to Chinese or Russian ... and heck nearly all of the Europeans speak English anyway.


Yes, writing is of utmost importance to me. I understand the need for great writers and how easily a work, if done well, can convey an idea and convince an audience of its merit. I will not and do not neglect that portion of my study.

I'm not even thinking of GREAT writing, just BASIC stuff. (Once you get out in the business world you will be shocked and stunned at peoples' INABILITY to write even a coherent sentence, much less a solid paragraph; and anything longer than a single page email is pretty much beyond 95% of the population, including most of the management.)

Cheers!

Deborah K
07-24-2008, 05:57 PM
I read Peter Schiff's Crash Proof a while back and took his advice in it, which was pretty much the same as the OP's. (Thanks, btw) We did a few other things as well. Won't say on here, but you can always email me.

I suggest everyone get into survivalist mode and start by contacting your local RonPaul meetup groups and HAM radio groups - they are typically survivalists.

tangent4ronpaul
07-24-2008, 05:57 PM
Lastly, get some mirror texts - the same book in English and Russian. Ideally, children's books to start with.

An excellent mirror text is "Where There Is No Doctor". It's written in basic language and you will learn something useful when you use it. It's been translated into 75 languages. Unfortunately, the Russian version is OOP. You could try to find a copy here:

http://used.addall.com <== Meta used book search engine

(you can download the book in English for free here, or buy a dead tree edition).
http://www.hesperian.org/mm5/merchant.mvc?Store_Code=HB&Screen=PROD&Product_Code=B010R

Other languages:
http://www.hesperian.org/publications_translation.php
http://www.hesperian.org/mm5/merchant.mvc?Store_Code=HB&Screen=CTGY&Category_Code=OTH
http://www.hesperian.org/mm5/merchant.mvc?Store_Code=HB&Screen=CTGY&Category_Code=ESP

hope that helps,

-n

jabrownie
07-24-2008, 08:33 PM
Might also be useful to look into something called Aquaponics or barrelponics. If you've got some acreage in the country might help keep ya fed with both protein and veggies.

http://www.attra.org/attra-pub/aquaponic.html

http://ag.arizona.edu/azaqua/extension/Classroom/Aquaponics.htm

http://www.backyardaquaponics.com/forum/index.php?sid=36ac4e62f83a32a3a95493a854739b96

Just a few to give a brief overview. Googling the term will bring up more if you're interested.

Dequeant
07-24-2008, 09:15 PM
I'm not too worried about food or water. When all else fails, we can always eat liberals. Then distill their blood into water to drink.

whadouno
07-24-2008, 11:40 PM
Great stuff!!!

llepard, WRellim and others solid info...

****

Long time lurker trying to contribute...

I totally agree with a 20% allocation in precious metals. If you don't have a $100k or even $10k it doesn't matter. Start with what you have. Silver has the potential to at least equal gold and possibly out perform. IMO if SHTF...gold coins will be monthly expenses. Silver coins will be weekly expenses. The stories about the housewives going to the baker / grocery stores during the depression and the ladies with silver coins moving to the front of the line. A silver ounce can be bought for under $20 at a coin store near you. Buy 1 each week or 10 now if you can. They could be worth a week of food each.


****

Barter items: Liquor will be worth its weight in gold. A cheap case of vodka or rum...cigarette / lighters...can openers...tuna fish....spam...bags of rice...honey...cooking oil...aluminum foil...popcorn...peanut butter...

****

Just do something! Be safe my friends...

devil21
07-25-2008, 12:05 AM
Barter items: Liquor will be worth its weight in gold. A cheap case of vodka or rum...cigarette / lighters...can openers...tuna fish....spam...bags of rice...honey...cooking oil...aluminum foil...popcorn...peanut butter...


Im adding Sterno to your list or any other way you may know to cook food or boil water if the power grid is shut down. Good point about booze and smokes too. Anything that (1) people in mass are addicted to and (2) anything that people will use to temporarily escape the woes of every day depression-era life will be in very high demand as barter items. But, they do you no good if you don't protect them with a gun and ammo! All of these suggestions of what to stock up on mean NOTHING if someone can break into your house and steal them with impunity because you can't prevent it. In a total collapse things will turn into the wild west and you better be prepared to defend what's yours. Cops won't have gas to drive to your house, your phone won't have power to call 911, etc. You are on your own.

EDIT: Dont forget your pets too! Buying a few 40lb bags of dog food and a big supply of any medication they may need (dewormers, flea/tick repellent, etc) will keep your closest and most trusted friend happy and alive during the crisis too. And dogs make great deterrents in case someone tries to break into your house.

Great discussion btw. Lots of good info.

revolutionary8
07-25-2008, 12:31 AM
Great stuff!!!

llepard, WRellim and others solid info...

****

Long time lurker trying to contribute...

I totally agree with a 20% allocation in precious metals. If you don't have a $100k or even $10k it doesn't matter. Start with what you have. Silver has the potential to at least equal gold and possibly out perform. IMO if SHTF...gold coins will be monthly expenses. Silver coins will be weekly expenses. The stories about the housewives going to the baker / grocery stores during the depression and the ladies with silver coins moving to the front of the line. A silver ounce can be bought for under $20 at a coin store near you. Buy 1 each week or 10 now if you can. They could be worth a week of food each.


****

Barter items: Liquor will be worth its weight in gold. A cheap case of vodka or rum...cigarette / lighters...can openers...tuna fish....spam...bags of rice...honey...cooking oil...aluminum foil...popcorn...peanut butter...

****

Just do something! Be safe my friends...

You speak my language. :D
Welcome to the commentary. :)

Deborah K
07-25-2008, 11:50 AM
Im adding Sterno to your list or any other way you may know to cook food or boil water if the power grid is shut down. Good point about booze and smokes too. Anything that (1) people in mass are addicted to and (2) anything that people will use to temporarily escape the woes of every day depression-era life will be in very high demand as barter items. But, they do you no good if you don't protect them with a gun and ammo! All of these suggestions of what to stock up on mean NOTHING if someone can break into your house and steal them with impunity because you can't prevent it. In a total collapse things will turn into the wild west and you better be prepared to defend what's yours. Cops won't have gas to drive to your house, your phone won't have power to call 911, etc. You are on your own.

EDIT: Dont forget your pets too! Buying a few 40lb bags of dog food and a big supply of any medication they may need (dewormers, flea/tick repellent, etc) will keep your closest and most trusted friend happy and alive during the crisis too. And dogs make great deterrents in case someone tries to break into your house.

Great discussion btw. Lots of good info.

Yes, it is a very good discussion and hopefully people will take it seriously and work to convince their neighbors, friends, and family to do the same. I was considered 'Chicken Little' in my circle until the economy took a dump, now everyone is paying attention.

We've been fortunate in that we have acreage, gardens, chickens, etc. but we also have stocked up on EVERYTHING:

TP
laundry soap
dish soap
bath soap
razors
shampoo
etc, etc.

It took us almost a year to do it, but we have about a year of stuff now.

Buy cases of Top Ramen. You can get them at Costco for around 6.00. One package is a meal and there are about 50 meals per case. I normally do not allow that kind of food in my house but it will sustain you in a crisis and it is cheap. If you drop an egg in it, it adds great flavor and gives you some protein.

We stocked up on pain reliever, vitamins, and various medicinal creams and we went to Mexico and got some antibiotics. You don't need a presciption for them there. Put together a really good first aid kit.

Everyone has to shop, usually on a weekly basis. It's easier on the pocket book if you buy a few stock-up items every time you shop. Before you know it, you'll have a nice little supply of stuff.

We have 250 lbs of rice and 250 lbs of beans among many other canned and dried goods.

As to the weaponry. If you can't afford a gun, go to your next gun show and buy a taser for 40.00. It's better than nothing at all. And yes, Dogs are good alarm systems and some are great protectors. Stock up for your animals as well, as devil21 suggests.

We just bought a HAM radio. Guess where we got the idea from? Ron Paul. When Ray interviewed him, he mentioned it in passing. My husband and I looked at eachother and thought the same thing. "Why would he mention HAM radios"? You have to have a license (go figure) to use them so now we are in that process. But even if you can't get a HAM, get a 2-way, or contact your local HAM community - they are survivalists and will be a great asset to your community if shtf.

We also took our money out of everything, we have held back some cash and we invested in silver when it was 9 to 1 and gold when it was 675.00. We bought coins rather than bars, because we figured coins would be easier to trade with. We bought gold as a wealth protector and silver to trade with.

Hope all this helps.

FunkBuddha
07-25-2008, 11:58 AM
Survivalist chicks are HAWT!!

Rhys
07-25-2008, 03:46 PM
Survivalist chicks are HAWT!!

like Sarah Conner!

raystone
07-25-2008, 06:55 PM
bump

ProBlue33
07-25-2008, 06:57 PM
A very good thread, and I agree that gold & silver will be the longest and best means of holding on to purchasing power. But even that in the very end won't help us.

Zephaniah 1:18A (New American Standard Bible)

18 " Neither their silver nor their gold
Will be able to deliver them
On the day of the LORD'S wrath"

Anti Federalist
07-26-2008, 05:57 AM
LLepard and WRellim, two of what I consider to be RPFs "heavy hitters", come off the bench to blast home runs clear out of the park.

I can add nothing to what they have said that would not be superfluous, other than to say "Listen up folks".

Larry: if you are reading this, I'm away at work right now, but drop Mrs. Anti an email when you get a chance.

llepard
07-26-2008, 07:12 AM
This stuff is disturbing, but it's better to know than not. I'm not personally afraid to invest in gold/silver/commodities--but I'm afraid to invest my mother's money in it and she's given me the reigns to invest for her. I am pretty torn about it.

It's one thing if it's my money, but if I sit on my hands and don't invest it for my mother and she loses everything, I'll blame myself. If I do invest in it for her and she loses money, I'll blame myself.

.

Diversify. Its not all or nothing. Take a minimum of 10% of her assets and put them in gold/silver. They will not become worthless. And, the upside is 2-100x your money. (As measured in dollars). Think of it as insurance.

LibertyEagle
07-26-2008, 07:15 AM
Llepard,

If we have a financial collapse, won't it seriously impact all other fiat currencies around the world? I am asking this question, as I'm trying to figure out whether investing in another currency, such as the Swiss Franc, is a good thing to do.

If you do believe that converting some of our USDs into Swiss Francs is a good thing to do, what instrument would you suggest to do so?

llepard
07-26-2008, 07:51 AM
Llepard,

If we have a financial collapse, won't it seriously impact all other fiat currencies around the world? I am asking this question, as I'm trying to figure out whether investing in another currency, such as the Swiss Franc, is a good thing to do.

If you do believe that converting some of our USDs into Swiss Francs is a good thing to do, what instrument would you suggest to do so?

It could. That is why gold and silver are a core part of my plan. Having said that there are a lot of currencies which are much better than the dollar and do not have as many debt claims outstanding against them.

Think of it this way. The U.S. is going bankrupt. Dollars will be like Confederate dollars or Continentals. When these monetary systems failed others were ok. Granted, the dollar is the world's reserve currency so this time could be different.

Therefore, gold and silver first, then other currencies.

tangent4ronpaul
07-26-2008, 10:33 AM
It could. That is why gold and silver are a core part of my plan. Having said that there are a lot of currencies which are much better than the dollar and do not have as many debt claims outstanding against them.

Think of it this way. The U.S. is going bankrupt. Dollars will be like Confederate dollars or Continentals. When these monetary systems failed others were ok. Granted, the dollar is the world's reserve currency so this time could be different.

Therefore, gold and silver first, then other currencies.

Are there any other currencies in the world that are backed by gold, silver, diamonds, or something else of worth?

thanks,

-n

expatriot
07-28-2008, 07:46 AM
Foreign currencies are at just as much risk.
(I know - I have several million in my pocket right now - virtualy useless in the long term.)
The rest of the globe will still be dancing to the greenback waltz as the ship slips
beneath the waves. Anything but fiat currency will be worth more as long as you
can manage to keep a firm grip on it.

Gold and silver have a small problem of being difficult to hold onto if you travel,
but they are universal currencies around the globe.

(I was in the gold markets near here last month and amused by the ease with which
one could exchange gold for worthless paper.):rolleyes:

Best things are those things which cannot be pried loose by thugs or those who
appear to have some authority by dint of force.

!
By far the best thing you can get are friends who believe in at least the basic principles
you cherish.
!

gilliganscorner
07-28-2008, 09:19 AM
A couple of notes:

Gold and Silver, at least here in Canada, is getting harder and harder to purchase anonymously as the government increasingly turns its eyes towards local dealers, proclaiming that terrorists/criminals are laundering money through dealers. I can buy it from one of our regulated banks, but the reporting requirements are unacceptable (i.e. drivers license/address) etc etc.

Digital gold currency sites are not acceptable as (a) you really don't know if your gold is there, and (b) it is a centralized system. This makes it a target for the bad guys as they will prosecute the owners, seize the servers and records, and waterboard the participants. In fact, the owners of e-gold just pleaded to a Fed charge of "money laundering" which sends out a disturbing message: a business is responsible for what its Customers do. I wrote a blog entry (http://gilliganscorner.wordpress.com/2008/05/26/fintrac-declares-war-on-free-trade/) on FINTRAC, which ias Canada's "financial intelligence" federal department.

They are using that old stand-by of invoking the terrorist/criminal bogeyman and applying to participants in the digitical gold (and silver) currency sites. This is pure BS. What people have discovered is a mechanism where they can network and trade with each other outside the taxation and inflation system the State enforces upon us. That is what really has them concerned.

Of course they don't mention that the "red market" is where the greatest money laundering scam in the world takes place, namely via the central and private banks and legalized by the State.

Anyway, they are pushing for the local gold and silver dealers to be "regulated". Since they have a number of privacy seeking customers, the dealers know the writing is on the wall: as the "regulation" takes place, their Customers will dry up, thus they will be forced to either exit the business or go bankrupt.

My point is, if your regulation is anything like Canada's, you'll want to start your hard money purchases sooner rather than later. You will want to procure it anonymously - don't let the government know where it is, as they will want to pull you back into their taxation/inflation system.

As Alan Greenspan said (yes, that Alan Greenspan:


In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

Secondly, you will want to set up a trading network with each other, using sound money. That way,

When (anyone believe if?) the collapse comes, you will have an established network of trading partners already set up.
If the collapse does NOT come, hey, guess what? You just set up a network where you can buy each others services/products without having to report it for taxation, regulation, and/or confiscation. Imagine your productivity gains trading part time without having 50% of it stolen via taxes and X% due to inflation. Just be sure not to centralize your network. P2P encrypted networking works best.


My debased two cents.....

gilliganscorner
07-28-2008, 09:35 AM
Are there any other currencies in the world that are backed by gold, silver, diamonds, or something else of worth?

thanks,

-n

Not one.

The central bank mechanism allows government to break accountability to the people, as they no longer have to go to the people and raise taxes to finance their debacles of the day.

Let me put it another way. If the government had to go to the people and raise taxes to finance the Iraq, Afghanistan, and probably Iran wars, how long do you think the people would stomach it? Even the sheeple would resist more. No MSM dialogue ever asks the question, "How the heck can we afford all these wars, nation-building, and policiing the world?".

It is fleeced from us via inflation, which the bobbleheads do not understand.

And that temptation is too great for any government to resist. No country restricts its currency issuance by tying it to a hard asset.

The world is an extremely dangerous place due in large part to fiat currency.

llepard
07-28-2008, 11:38 AM
The world is an extremely dangerous place due in large part to fiat currency.

QFT!

The Gold Standard. Don't run your country without it.

Lord Xar
07-28-2008, 04:08 PM
are there any VERY reputable places to actually get pure gold/silver so you can have it in hand? I don't think I 'trust' others supposedily holding my gold/silver. Does anybody have gold/silver in hand OR do you all use places that supposedly have your gold/silver = holding it for you once you purchase it from them?

please advise.

haaaylee
07-28-2008, 05:47 PM
isn't the swiss franc backed by gold?

llepard
07-29-2008, 04:19 AM
are there any VERY reputable places to actually get pure gold/silver so you can have it in hand? I don't think I 'trust' others supposedily holding my gold/silver. Does anybody have gold/silver in hand OR do you all use places that supposedly have your gold/silver = holding it for you once you purchase it from them?

please advise.


isn't the swiss franc backed by gold?

(1)The Swiss Franc is not gold backed, but it is well managed. I trust the Swiss not to ruin their currency and I own some.

(2) Possession is 9/10ths. There is a good australian gold trust. Google it. But for my money I like owning the physical. Buy well known coins, American Eagles, Kruggerands, etc. from a reputable dealer. An on line dealer I have used is www.tulving.com . He is in Newport Beach, CA. Trustworthy and fair in my experience. But there are a lot of dealers.

Ozwest
07-29-2008, 04:29 AM
The Perth Mint offers consolation.

But llepard is correct.

The Swiss are perfectionists of discretion.

Ozwest
07-29-2008, 04:34 AM
I went local llepard.

Have pity on amateurs.

gilliganscorner
07-29-2008, 06:11 AM
I went local llepard.

Have pity on amateurs.

? What does local mean, Oz?

Ozwest
07-29-2008, 06:13 AM
The Perth Mint is within spitting distance.

gilliganscorner
07-29-2008, 06:24 AM
The Perth Mint is within spitting distance.

Lucky dog. See if you can get any of the Lunar Series Gold 1oz gold coins. Why?

1) I think you can get them for close to the same price as an Eagle/Maple Leaf.
2) They are a limited series and have a good chance of picking up numismatic premiums.

In a shit hits the fan scenario, the numismatic premium will disappear, but if you pick them up at bargain prices, no harm done.

Ozwest
07-29-2008, 06:28 AM
Lucky dog. See if you can get any of the Lunar Series Gold 1oz gold coins. Why?

1) I think you can get them for close to the same price as an Eagle/Maple Leaf.
2) They are a limited series and have a good chance of picking up numismatic premiums.

In a shit hits the fan scenario, the numismatic premium will disappear, but if you pick them up at bargain prices, no harm done.

They do make beautiful currency, but I am concentrating on weight.

The art market will crash, as all collectibles.

gilliganscorner
07-29-2008, 06:35 AM
They do make beautiful currency, but I am concentrating on weight.

The art market will crash, as all collectibles.

But the 1oz .9999 pure bullion content in the coin will not crash. If you can pick it up at the same price as an Eagle or a Maple Leaf, why not?

If the art market does not crash, you can always sell them for content + premium. There will never be premium on Maple Leafs/Eagles/Rands etc etc.

LibertyEagle
07-29-2008, 06:37 AM
(1)The Swiss Franc is not gold backed, but it is well managed. I trust the Swiss not to ruin their currency and I own some.

What's the best way to buy this? Swiss T-Bills, or some other way?

Ozwest
07-29-2008, 06:44 AM
But the 1oz .9999 pure bullion content in the coin will not crash. If you can pick it up at the same price as an Eagle or a Maple Leaf, why not?

If the art market does not crash, you can always sell them for content + premium. There will never be premium on Maple Leafs/Eagles/Rands etc etc.

I agree, but after listening to llepards comments, I realize that my investment is too public, although seemingly secure.

Time to buy a safe.

llepard
07-29-2008, 07:09 AM
What's the best way to buy this? Swiss T-Bills, or some other way?

In a swiss bank or broker. I use www.swissquote.ch

There is also a Swiss Franc ETF, run by currency shares. FXF. However, in a total US financial collapse the sponsor of this ETF could go bankrupt. So I rate this behind owning the currency in Switzerland.

Also, if you put more than $10K in Switzerland be sure to file the form with the Feds. Not doing so is a felony and is punishable by up to 5 years in prison.

LWL

Ozwest
07-29-2008, 07:18 AM
But the 1oz .9999 pure bullion content in the coin will not crash. If you can pick it up at the same price as an Eagle or a Maple Leaf, why not?

If the art market does not crash, you can always sell them for content + premium. There will never be premium on Maple Leafs/Eagles/Rands etc etc.

Bars, for me.

LibertyEagle
07-29-2008, 07:19 AM
Thanks llepard. I thought Switzerland stopped accepting any new accounts from Americans?

Anti Federalist
10-06-2008, 02:10 PM
Worthless fiat currency bump

sirachman
10-06-2008, 03:30 PM
I only have 1-2 thousand dollars at the moment what should I buy if anything to help save what i have?... Gold? Silver? How much of each?
I also am completely clueless on what types of gold are good to buy or from where. I have heard 90% silver coins are a good deal but i really have no clue. Hopefully someone could either give me some good direction and advice on what to do or point me in the direction of a really good resource that i can find what i need with. THANKS :)

pennycat
10-06-2008, 04:37 PM
I only have 1-2 thousand dollars at the moment what should I buy if anything to help save what i have?... Gold? Silver? How much of each?
I also am completely clueless on what types of gold are good to buy or from where. I have heard 90% silver coins are a good deal but i really have no clue. Hopefully someone could either give me some good direction and advice on what to do or point me in the direction of a really good resource that i can find what i need with. THANKS :)

I would suggest just stockpiling food/necessity type products. Reason? If inflation is coming and I think it is, things you need will become more expensive. As your horded items appreciate in value you won't be taxed on their appreciation.

I got turned onto this concept through an old book called Alpha Omega Strategy. Author claims you should only invest in gold and silver AFTER you have a good store of goods.

lisajames96
10-06-2008, 05:27 PM
I would suggest just stockpiling food/necessity type products. Reason? If inflation is coming and I think it is, things you need will become more expensive. As your horded items appreciate in value you won't be taxed on their appreciation.

I got turned onto this concept through an old book called Alpha Omega Strategy. Author claims you should only invest in gold and silver AFTER you have a good store of goods.

would that be John Pugsley of investment rarities? I still have that book. I just so happen to have read it a couple of months prior to finding out about Ron Paul...went back and read it again afterwards...stockpiling didn't seem like a good idea to me 2 years ago, but I understand the connection now for my husband and my, "poor man's" inflation proof "investment".

Oh and right you were llepard, sadly.

pennycat
10-06-2008, 05:58 PM
would that be John Pugsley of investment rarities? I still have that book. I just so happen to have read it a couple of months prior to finding out about Ron Paul...went back and read it again afterwards...stockpiling didn't seem like a good idea to me 2 years ago, but I understand the connection now for my husband and my, "poor man's" inflation proof "investment".

Oh and right you were llepard, sadly.

Bonus points for knowing the author! I still have my copy too. Time for a reprint?

TheConstitutionLives
10-06-2008, 06:30 PM
Oh and right you were llepard, sadly.

Indeed