First TV Ad Buy: Vote!

[skiingff]

We can buy airtime on broadcast (ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX) or Cable (CNN, Fox News, Comedy Central, History Channel, VH1, MTV, Spike TV, etc). Broadcast has the potential to cost up to 50 times MORE than cable. Broadcast also reaches a much wider audience, and with broadcast we know the facts of who we're going to reach and how many people. With cable, we just have to hope people are watching -- there are no Nielsen ratings available. Broadcast TV has a lower cost for impressions per one-thousand people, meaning we can target more people more cheaply. In fact, broadcast beats out cable on this bigtime. However, with cable we can target specific areas and cable stations, and with broadcast we have a little bit of flexibility with the stations but broadcast can target up to a 3 state area. For Iowa, we can target just Iowa with broadcast. But with New Hampshire, we'd be targeting Massachusetts and a sliver of Vermont as well. Iowa has its own broadcast TV markets, NH does not. We can do broadcast ads in Iowa for $6.30 per thousand impressions, broadcast in NH for as little as $7+ per thousand impressions, and cable ads for $18/spot, but keep in mind while one broadcast area can cover a whole state, one cable region only covers that city and nearby cities. Meaning, a cable ad in Nashua would cost $18 or so, but would ONLY be for Nashua. A cable ad for Manchester would target Manchester and a few other nearby places. So by the time you buy cable ads from each city/area, it starts to add up. And it depends on who in that city is watching that particular cable TV station at that particular time. With broadcast, it depends on who in the state is watching a main channel (say, NBC) at what time.

Bottom line:

If we purchase broadcast airtime in IA, the ads will air at various times on different channels (ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX) and cost us $3,650 for almost 800,000 impressions ($6.30 or so per 1000 impressions).

If we purchase broadcast airtime in NH, the ads will air Primetime on 2 or 3 main channels the week leading up to the 2nd nationally televised Republican debate in NH, and cost $8,950 for 1.5 million impressions ($7 per 1000 impressions). Keep in mind, primetime is the cheapest per impression and this option would spread our message to the most John and Jane Does, and get us the most media attention (being on local affiliates). Primetime ads would also show our Power and I think make a better effect on people than the other 2 options. I can't control the time the IA or cable ads would air as accurately as I can nail these ones down to a 2-3 hour period (6pm-8pm etc). Which means, we could inform everyone well ahead of time to "turn your TV on at this time to this channel," and they can see the ad rather than "well, just look out for them, they should air sometime." My issue is that cable is a specific demographic, not all people have it, and some only have basic cable where they pretty much only get the main channels anyway. If our goal is name recognition, it would make sense getting the message out to the general populace.

If we purchase cable ads in IA/NH, they will cost around $18 for each spot. Each spot is for each local cable market for specific channels. We could target whichever areas we wanted, but not be sure who's seeing the ad.

[Sematary]

Obviously, broadcast is the way to go. Can you afford it?

[skiingff]

Obviously, broadcast is the way to go. Can you afford it?


Well I think the issue is, how seriously do we want to be taken; and furthermore, how serious are we???

Are we dead serious with this? Then money shouldn't matter, especially $10,000. Other campaigns (*cough* Republicans for the Iraq War group and Swift Boat Veterans *cough*) spend MILLIONS on nothing but nationally-televised broadcast TV ads. Here we're talking 10k. If we can't compete, why don't we just call it quits and go home??

It depends on how serious we are with a produtive marketing campaign for Ron Paul.

[Razmear]

Having lived in VT I can tell you that you will reach more folks with cable ads in NH than with broadcast. TV reception sucks in NH unless you are near the Mass border.

eb

edit: what about DirecTV ad rates?

[Sematary]

Having lived in VT I can tell you that you will reach more folks with cable ads in NH than with broadcast. TV reception sucks in NH unless you are near the Mass border.

eb

edit: what about DirecTV ad rates?

Doesn't broadcast show up on all basic cable systems anyway?

[Green Mountain Boy]

Doesn't broadcast show up on all basic cable systems anyway?

Yes, the do. At least that is my experience.

In Vermont, our cable comes with 4 Broadcast channels from Boston and a few from New Hampshire.

So Razmear, I don't think that is a problem.

[MsDoodahs]

I do not believe the Neilsen numbers are accurate.

I think broadcast (old media) is viewed a LOT less than cable in the evening hours.

I do think broadcast gets viewed a lot during the day by your average soap opera viewer.

But in the evenings, cable is the way to go.

Also like Raz's idea for checking with DirectTV for their rates.

I have not voted yet because I have not sent the money yet. When I send money I'll feel okay voting.

[JoshLowry]

Other!

Let the people who donated decide what to do with their money. I really have no idea what would be best.

[LibertyEagle]

What about getting input from people who actually live in those states, in addition to the Nielson ratings.

[LibertyEagle]

When will the ad(s) be available for preview?

[akovacs]

I think we should focus the ad in IA because fewer people there know him. NH is also pretty libertarian, so I don't think he'll have any trouble getting airtime in other ways (Such as interviews, debates, etc).

That's my thinking anyway.

[Green Mountain Boy]

I think we should focus the ad in IA because fewer people there know him. NH is also pretty libertarian, so I don't think he'll have any trouble getting airtime in other ways (Such as interviews, debates, etc).

That's my thinking anyway.

I think Paul's name recognition is about the same just about anywhere in the country excluding Texas. NH is pretty libertarian compared to other states, but the news media isn't - that's why we need to get his name out on the airwaves.

[LibertyEagle]

I hate to say it, but the vast majority of Texans don't know who he is, either.

[Green Mountain Boy]

I hate to say it, but the vast majority of Texans don't know who he is, either.

Darn it. I'm used to Vermont where everyone knows all of our Representatives. We only have 1, lol.

[skiingff]

Thanks for all the input thus far. We have until Friday to decide. After friday, our rates increase 10%. I'm not willing to waste 1 out of 10 donations. The 10% off is a VERY good deal for TV airtime. We won't get this opportunity again.

Unfortunately, I can put no more than 10 grand up front on my personal credit cards. I just turned 19 and my highest credit limit is 5k, and they will accept 3 different credit cards. I'm going to get us a business bank account solely for Op NH once things take off. Using PayPal would be great but your account has to have been open for 90 days before they will send a PayPal debit card to you. I will look into seeing if I can use my personal account and switch it to the business account, and switch the current Op NH account to my personal, and get the money transfered over into the new business account. That way, the account will have been opened for more than 90 days and we can make *ALL* purchases from one single account, and keep very good records of all purchases made and keep track of money flow.

I can also allow proven RP supporters access to view the PayPal account's balance and all purchases, etc made, but they wouldnt be able to transfer any money themselves. PM me if you're interested in this to keep tabs on things. We will also try to list it all on the website as public record (which it is under FEC guidelines anyways). Transparency is key (sometimes I believe *unlike* the Ron Paul campaign) and Op NH's goal is to be transparent and get the MOST bang for the buck, that's why I solicit ideas from you guys and tell you what I'm going to do.

[BillyDkid]

I didn't vote because I honestly don't know what is best or what will reach more people. You actually have some knowledge about these things so I put stock in your opinion. Thanks so much for going to all this effort. I made my small donation and will be happy to donate more when I next get paid. I think we all owe you a lot.

[Patriot]

I didn't vote, but I think broadcast will target older voters, who tend to watch more broadcast and less cable. Also if you could get the spot to run during to local news (the weather segment would be best) you will get more 40+ voters to see it. Cable will target younger voters who already know about Ron Paul.

[Green Mountain Boy]

"Mitt Romney is set to begin another round of New Hampshire television ads.

The Politico's Jonathan Martin is reporting that the ad buy will be '250 points on New Hampshire's sole broadcast station, WMUR, and another 150 on the Vermont and Maine affiliates that reach over into the Granite State. These numbers mean, very broadly, that the average television viewer in Iowa and New Hampshire will see the new Romney ad only a small handful of times.'"

GRPs are calculated by multiplying a spot's reach by the number of times it airs. If a spot airs on televison programs that reach 30 percent of Des Moines viewers five times, the campaign would have purchased about 150 GRPS. Generally, 1000 GRPS constitutes market saturation.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/08/romney_returns_to_the_air.php

How does this compare to what we'd be airing in New Hampshire?

[Razmear]

Reading the recent comments, I'd still stick with cable. Other than the evening news I hardly ever watch network TV, and cable rates are much cheaper so you'll get more slots for the cash, and more chances of someone seeing at least one ad.
I'd also check into 30 minute infomercial rates, just to see what you can get for the insomniacs.

eb

[Lord Xar]

when can we 'see' a preview of the commercial?

[Green Mountain Boy]

when can we 'see' a preview of the commercial?

I think Skiing said Friday at the latest.

[EvoPro]

he also said that it's not the final, and it will be a rough draft.

[slantedview]

I had assumed we were going to win new hampshire anyways and that the ad time would be better used in Iowa. Is this not the case?

[Green Mountain Boy]

I had assumed we were going to win new hampshire anyways and that the ad time would be better used in Iowa. Is this not the case?

Assumed we were going to win New Hampshire without any work!?

That's a pretty dangerous assumption. Mitt's home state is the neighbor to the south. Even if Ron Paul can get ahead of Giuliani, McCain and Thompson (he can), it's going to be a tough task beating Romney.

[Razmear]

I wouldn't assume a win in NH. I'd even be willing to surrender Iowa just so we can nail NH. Mitt is going to spend all he has in Iowa and he's polling at about 33% there now. NH knows Mitt better than Iowa does, which is why RP has a better chance there. Mitt is not loved by NH or even MA voters.

eb

[Eric21ND]

Your best bet might be to run ads during the local news, but other than that I don't know too many people that watch broadcast tv. Again we need local NH/IA people to chime in on this. What tv shows are most popular in their areas.

Find out about Directv also.

[EvoPro]

I think we should do both as much as possible. I mean, why surrender anything. We will be able to raise the money.

[Thunderbolt]

...

[Mani]

The general public may not know NH is a libertarian state and making a big splash with a lot of success in NH could cause a lot of extra publicity for Ron Paul.

The media already talked a lot about Iowa and Mitt, I'd like to see them talk about NH, and with Ron Paul winning, it would cause quite a stir. If it's such a libertarian state then advertising could be very effective into converting voters.

Some places it may take several impressions to make an impact, but if they are already libertarian minded, it may only take 1-2 impressions to convert a voter, which sounds more cost effective.

I'd say in a situation of limited funds, focus on grabbing a state like NH that's ripe for the picking and can create a news splash which forces old MSM to bring RP into the top tier, and create a spring board to get his name taken seriously in other states.

[stevedasbach]

In New Hampshire, top broadcast priority should be WMUR (ABC affiliate). It is the only network station broadcasting from NH, and it is the news station for the primary. Candidates who buy advertising from a media outlet get substantially more coverage from that outlet.

Same approach should be followed in IA. Hit the broadcast stations that are the news leaders.

As to which state, see if we can find out where Paul will be campaigning more and run them there. Between now and September 5, that should be NH.

[DeadheadForPaul]

In New Hampshire, top broadcast priority should be WMUR (ABC affiliate). It is the only network station broadcasting from NH, and it is the news station for the primary. Candidates who buy advertising from a media outlet get substantially more coverage from that outlet.

Same approach should be followed in IA. Hit the broadcast stations that are the news leaders.

As to which state, see if we can find out where Paul will be campaigning more and run them there. Between now and September 5, that should be NH.

I completely agree with you 100%

We should really focus on running during the nightly news slots (5-7:30 whenever it is). We need older voters and people who only pay attention to the MSM. That's who we would be reaching!

[mtmedlin]

PLEASE do cable. Its not about how many people see it. Its about how many times the same people see it. We might pay to have 800,000 people have a chance at seeing the commercial the limited number of times it airs. Or we can have a smaller number of people see the commercial multiple times.
In advertising they typically say that an ad isn't effective unless a person sees it at least 3 times. Think of a commercial that you like. One that has a catchy jingle. How many times did you have to see it before you got most of the words correct?
As far as the state. NH is a libertarian leaning state that has a habit of not going with the "national" front runners. (IE Buchanan) I don't think we can win Iowa. Sorry but the process there is fairly corrupt. It is a caucus and not a straight vote like NH. Caucuses are renowned for back door deals, promises and exchanging of favors for votes. If we come in top three it is a HUGE victory.

New Hampshire, Cable .....please

[ronpaulhawaii]

I completely agree with you 100%

We should really focus on running during the nightly news slots (5-7:30 whenever it is). We need older voters and people who only pay attention to the MSM. That's who we would be reaching!

Was happy to see the standings after reading the thread, I agree with the above

[SeanEdwards]

I practically never watch broadcast channels. Cable all the way. YMMV.

[aknappjr]

Guys, radio is more effective for the price.

[Shink]

I think the best approach is broadcast in NH and radio/bombing churches with his Statement of Faith in Iowa. I live in Iowa and I can tell you, if it isn't geared towards the Jesus-fearing denture crowd, it's not going to work. That isn't to say the religious angle should be specifically blasted on radio, though.

Broadcast is better for New Hampshire because a lot of people above the typical age of RP supporters (college-age) don't know about him. The 60 Minutes, sitcom, Wheel of Fortune crowd needs to learn about him. Sure, a lot of RP's younger supporters watch a lot of cable (Comedy Central, Spike, USA, etc.) but I don't think that's as true for the older set.

[Man from La Mancha]

I think the best approach is broadcast in NH and radio/bombing churches with his Statement of Faith in Iowa. I live in Iowa and I can tell you, if it isn't geared towards the Jesus-fearing denture crowd, it's not going to work. That isn't to say the religious angle should be specifically blasted on radio, though.

Broadcast is better for New Hampshire because a lot of people above the typical age of RP supporters (college-age) don't know about him. The 60 Minutes, sitcom, Wheel of Fortune crowd needs to learn about him. Sure, a lot of RP's younger supporters watch a lot of cable (Comedy Central, Spike, USA, etc.) but I don't think that's as true for the older set.


Not sure on this one. My father would have never gone cable but because of sports he did and I think since 80% of people involved in the primaries are men and many worship at the church of sports they will be watching cable. I'm not from NH but is not a lot of it rural and sometimes it is hard to receive stations. I know of a lot of rural areas use cable or direct TV because of poor reception. IMO

.

[libertarian4321]

You might want to do some cable ads - targeted to channels likely to have Ron Paul type viewers, e.g. History channel.

New Hampshire (about as libertarian as any state) is far more likely to yield Ron Paul supporters than Iowa (tends to be Christian conservative or even neocon, and more "pro war").

Its likely that Ron Paul won't be able to do great in both Iowa and NH, so IMHO, focusing on NH is a better use of resources (and its the first REAL primary).

[wgadget]

Hey, people....I found this interesting article.

Are we getting the "lowest" rate for the broadcast tv commercial?

http://www.usatoday.com/money/media/2007-08-08-political-ad-spending_N.htm

[wgadget]

I was just reading the COMMENTS section of the article I posted above....It seems to me that we should DEFINITELY put in the ad (at the beginning, if possible) that it is paid for by VOLUNTEERS for RON PAUL.....The people commenting on the board sound really pissed off at how elections are bought by the guy with the most advertising dollars.

I think the volunteer aspect continues to amaze people, and would be a great selling point on tv commercials as well as out on the streets.