Anonymous trader bets $4.5 billion that the market will crash next month

[BenIsForRon]

http://mparent7777-2.blogspot.com/2007/08/45b-bet-on-another-911-within-4-weeks.html

Something is going on here. I've been researching this for the past hour, and it seems like this kind of transaction is very rare, and this one specifically will only profit if the market falls by 30% before September 21st. But if the market does crash, the profits will be huge, over 2 billion.

People are saying this trader has inside information that either:

A. A major terrorist attack is going occur in the next month that will crash the markets

or

B. The Chinese are planning a dollar dump next month that will crash the U.S. markets, and this trader might actually be involved in the Chinese markets.

If either of these things turn out to be true, there is no need to panic. We don't need the government, and we don't need the New York Stock Exchange. All we need is love of freedom, and love for each other. The police state can only sustain itself on fear and hatred, and its up to us to provide them with neither.

[Chester Copperpot]

http://mparent7777-2.blogspot.com/2007/08/45b-bet-on-another-911-within-4-weeks.html

Something is going on here. I've been researching this for the past hour, and it seems like this kind of transaction is very rare, and this one specifically will only profit if the market falls by 30% before September 21st. But if the market does crash, the profits will be huge, over 2 billion.

People are saying this trader has inside information that either:

A. A major terrorist attack is going occur in the next month that will crash the markets

or

B. The Chinese are planning a dollar dump next month that will crash the U.S. markets, and this trader might actually be involved in the Chinese markets.

If either of these things turn out to be true, there is no need to panic. We don't need the government, and we don't need the New York Stock Exchange. All we need is love of freedom, and love for each other. The police state can only sustain itself on fear and hatred, and its up to us to provide them with neither.

This story is taking on a life of its own.. Earlier it was reported that the 'investor' spent $1 Billion to make $2 billion... All I can tell you is that if somebody bougt $1 Billion worth of out of the money put options on the DJIA.. they would probably stand to make a lot more than just double their money..

[WannaBfree]

here is another article on the subject with hyperlinks to other articles:

http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/august2007/270807_market_crash.htm

[Triton]

Why would the Chinese kill the goose (us) that lays their golden egg?

[cjhowe]

Quit playing bop-a-mole

http://ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?p=149836#post149836

[Cowlesy]

When did these trades take place because I'm not seeing them in the bloomberg terminal, and a group of SPX 700 calls would be easy to spot.

[Cowlesy]

only doomsday trade i see out there is someone bought 100 September 950 SXBUJ Puts with bid-ask spread of $0.15 to $1.00

[micahnelson]

only doomsday trade i see out there is someone bought 100 September 950 SXBUJ Puts with bid-ask spread of $0.15 to $1.00

I don't know anything about investments and the markets. :(

[giskard]

So is this debunked?

[MsDoodahs]

http://adamsoptions.blogspot.com/2007/08/and-another-explanation-actual-one.html

:)

[Cowlesy]

There ya go, debunked.

[BenIsForRon]

That's good to hear. There's so much paranoia flying around lately, and its hard not to be when you see Bush spouting his rhetoric about how dangerous Iran is.

[Hook]

We'll certainly know in 3 weeks. :)

[jacmicwag]

And I just traded short - oh well.

[R_Harris]

Here are two links, with the first link the most credible. There indeed IS a $900 million dollar put option having been placed by either an individual trader or a consortium. THIS IS LEGITIMATE.

The second link deals with a trade on the European exchange. Not sure if and how the two are linked, but these trades are definitely not urban legends.


http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/29/this-900-million-bet-has-global-traders-talking%e2%80%a6/

http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/august2007/270807_market_crash.htm

[Hook]

Here are two links, with the first link the most credible. There indeed IS a $900 million dollar put option having been placed by either an individual trader or a consortium. THIS IS LEGITIMATE.

The second link deals with a trade on the European exchange. Not sure if and how the two are linked, but these trades are definitely not urban legends.


http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/29/this-900-million-bet-has-global-traders-talking%e2%80%a6/

http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/august2007/270807_market_crash.htm

Yes there is the put option. But some people are saying that it is split so that it is movement neutral. They say that it is being used as a temporary 4 week loan on the market since commercial paper has shriveled up lately.
Like I said, we will know for sure in 3 weeks.

[RP4ME]

:confused: If its a split - where is the other side of the transaction?

[American]

Here are two links, with the first link the most credible. There indeed IS a $900 million dollar put option having been placed by either an individual trader or a consortium. THIS IS LEGITIMATE.

The second link deals with a trade on the European exchange. Not sure if and how the two are linked, but these trades are definitely not urban legends.


http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/08/29/this-900-million-bet-has-global-traders-talking%e2%80%a6/

http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/august2007/270807_market_crash.htm

What is this first link, I cant even get the moneymorning.com domain to come up?

[RP4ME]

yeah - all of a sudden its not coming up anymore....i'd just check back later.....maybe traffic?

[Hook]

:confused: If its a split - where is the other side of the transaction?

I don't know enough about options to follow everything they are saying, so you'll have to go to the source that Ms. Doodahs put up.

[cjhowe]

I don't know enough about options to follow everything they are saying, so you'll have to go to the source that Ms. Doodahs put up.

If you don't know enough about options, why would you propagate this assertion?

[SwordOfShannarah]

This story is taking on a life of its own.. Earlier it was reported that the 'investor' spent $1 Billion to make $2 billion... All I can tell you is that if somebody bougt $1 Billion worth of out of the money put options on the DJIA.. they would probably stand to make a lot more than just double their money..

true that! I was paying attention at 1 billion- I guess he's already had some great returns! ;)

[RP4ME]

:confused: If its a split - where is the other side of the transaction?

Also for traders....is this affecting yoru strategy one iota?

[MsDoodahs]

If you don't know enough about options, why would you propagate this assertion?

fearmongering?

[cjhowe]

fearmongering?

Interesting. Would you be more inclined to think this was malicious or simply ignorance?

[Hook]

If you don't know enough about options, why would you propagate this assertion?

I'm not asserting anything other than just repeating what I have seen around. That is why I had the disclaimer and told people to look at the article themselves. Of course I could just act like most of the arrogant twits around here and talk like I was an expert at everything. :)

[Hook]

Anyway, what I was talking about was the loan theory, not the end of the world theory.

[cjhowe]

I'm not asserting anything other than just repeating what I have seen around. That is why I had the disclaimer and told people to look at the article themselves. Of course I could just act like most of the arrogant twits around here and talk like I was an expert at everything. :)

Really Hook, I wasn't trying to throw you under the bus. Simply demonstrating that people speak about topics that they are ignorant about all of the time. We should not assume malice when ignorance can adequately explain. The same goes for the conspiracy theories that encourage people to look for dragons to slay. The conspiracy theories suggest malice when ignorance can adequately explain.

[ghemminger]

Really Hook, I wasn't trying to throw you under the bus. Simply demonstrating that people speak about topics that they are ignorant about all of the time. We should not assume malice when ignorance can adequately explain. The same goes for the conspiracy theories that encourage people to look for dragons to slay. The conspiracy theories suggest malice when ignorance can adequately explain.

AGGREED!

[SwordOfShannarah]

Really Hook, I wasn't trying to throw you under the bus. Simply demonstrating that people speak about topics that they are ignorant about all of the time. We should not assume malice when ignorance can adequately explain. The same goes for the conspiracy theories that encourage people to look for dragons to slay. The conspiracy theories suggest malice when ignorance can adequately explain.

??? I don't get it. What do you mean by ignorance?





;)

[ghemminger]

??? I don't get it. What do you mean by ignorance?





;)

Ignorance means that they don't know what they are doing.

[MsDoodahs]

Interesting. Would you be more inclined to think this was malicious or simply ignorance?

Here at this forum? Certainly not malicious, and I don't think of it as ignorance, either.

I think of it as honest concern - caused initially by someone else way back down the line who intentionally used the information to generate unnecessary fear - these are the people who start the chain of fearmongering. (I think there is something in humans that cause us to be susceptible to fears.)

There are people out there who make a living off frightened investors.
The more fear they can dredge up, the better for their own pocketbooks.

I think it's completely normal to be concerned about economic failures and fractures. It is easy to let fear rule your decisions. Fear ruled our decisions initially - which is why I insisted insisted insisted on buying gold. Looking back, that turned out to have been a smart move but it wasn't something done out of smarts - it was done out of fear.

Only after having been at the investing thing for a few years am I able to see that those initial buys were totally fear based.

It is damned hard to remain optimistic when everyone around is telling you the market is about to implode. Maybe they're right. Maybe they're wrong. I'm holding onto optimism for now.

This isn't to say that I don't believe all fiat systems will eventually implode. I do.

At the same time, I don't think it's wise to completely avoid participation in the market because you know that there is a failure looming out there somewhere on the horizon.

:)

[Hook]

Really Hook, I wasn't trying to throw you under the bus. Simply demonstrating that people speak about topics that they are ignorant about all of the time. We should not assume malice when ignorance can adequately explain. The same goes for the conspiracy theories that encourage people to look for dragons to slay. The conspiracy theories suggest malice when ignorance can adequately explain.

The article that I was referring to was the one MsDoodahs posted. It was about how it was probably a loan against the market rather than some doomsday scenenario. Which would make what I was saying the opposite of fearmongering.

[SwordOfShannarah]

Ignorance means that they don't know what they are doing.

Yikes- sarcasm is often lost in text only conversations. :p (And perhaps my own comment here proves it!)