What is a SHTF scenario?

[christagious]

Okay, I can "imagine" what this scenario would be like, but I'm wondering what all of your ideas are. I'm sure each person has their own idea of a SHTF scenario and the liklihood of "their" scenario happening. So what do you all think is the most likely SHTF scenario that would happen? How likely is it to happen? And what will "disappear" from life as we know it?


My SHTF scenario is: martial law declared, US is a total police state, people are being locked up left and right, many flee to the rural areas to hide out and stay under the radar.
I don't know, that's really all I can come up with. Anyways, please see the questions above.

[Kludge]

Atlas Shrugged.

[amy31416]

Economy gets so bad that people can't afford cable any longer, people angry, not placated by sports or reality TV. They lose their minds and get angry at the government for not giving them cable and give them shit. The government decides that they don't like dissent and make examples of people and send 'em to the big house for any damned reason they want.

[Kludge]

Economy gets so bad that people can't afford cable any longer, people angry, not placated by sports or reality TV. They lose their minds and get angry at the government for not giving them cable and give them shit. The government decides that they don't like dissent and make examples of people and send 'em to the big house for any damned reason they want.

Forum winner.

[Roxi]

Economy gets so bad that people can't afford cable any longer, people angry, not placated by sports or reality TV. They lose their minds and get angry at the government for not giving them cable and give them shit. The government decides that they don't like dissent and make examples of people and send 'em to the big house for any damned reason they want.
]


THIS IS ME!!! THIS IS ME!!!! oh no... im already in a SHTF scenario.... what do i do??? im <--> this close to gitmo i know it

[MsDoodahs]

I don't worry much about another terror attack because those are geographically isolated, so we'd have limited impact overall.

IMO...Where we are most vulnerable is economic catastrophe. I think it is pretty damn likely, but to what degree of severity, I'm not sure.

Worst case scenario, and I do mean WORST CASE SCENARIO....

I figure that there would be loss of all kinds of gov't services, at all levels. Those dependent on gov't services would get pissed off first. Since most large metro areas have high densities of those who are dependent on gov't services, that's where anger is first going to flare. Once food shortages start hitting those areas...that's when it starts to get really bad.

Remember Katrina...think along that line only without the flood waters. And not in only one city, but in multiple cities - and at the same time.

The last place I'd want to be is inside a big city.

If I was, I'd want to GTFO as quickly as possible...hence my question earlier today re: how rural folk envision their response to what I imagine could be a mass of humanity streaming out of the cities.

Of course, that would be followed in short order by the 'dreg people' who initially stayed in the cities pillaging...because eventually, they'll get hungry and leave the city, too.

That's my WORST CASE SCENARIO.

Damn. Now I'll have trouble sleeping. :eek:

[Dr.3D]

I believe the first part of the SHTF scenario will be when people find it impossible to afford to heat their homes in the winter. This will especially be a problem in the northern states. People will become desperate and do whatever they deem necessary to get the money to pay for the fuel to heat their homes.

The next part of the scenario will be when the farmers have found it impossible to buy enough fuel to run their equipment and the cost of food will go through the roof. When this happens, again, people will become desperate and do whatever they deem necessary to get the money to buy food for their families.

While the first two steps of this scenario are playing out, those who were helped by the government to keep from loosing their homes will again find it impossible to get enough money to pay the lower interest rate mortgage they had refinanced to and will lose their homes anyway. When this happens, we will be back to square one on the housing bubble and this time there will be no way out of it.

As the value of the dollar falls and the economy crumbles, foreign governments who were holding the dollar will begin to dump it. After that happens, the full force of the SHTF scenario will be in effect.

Electricity will probably fail as well as heating fuel, gasoline and water service as nobody but the very rich will be able to afford them. Jobs will be lost as the airlines go out of business and what manufacturing plants that are left in this country will close due to the high cost of energy.

The domino effect will take place and many of the other countries we were doing business with will have the same SHTF scenario. Chaos will ensue and the governments will try to impose what order they feel they can. From that point it will be politics that people will start to pay attention to and more than likely they will go for whatever the politicians say is good for the country, even if it is only good for the politicians.

I really hope all of this does not happen, I really do.

[MsDoodahs]

Damn, that's almost worse than mine.:eek:

[Dieseler]

#1
For most, 9 meals interrupted.
That 9 meals comes for different people or families at different times.
Some within 3 days, others a week and so on and so on.

What would cause a group of people or family to miss 9 meals straight in a row?

The Fed Reserve notes stop flowing due to job loss or depression or inability to commute.
Gas shortage making it impossible to commute and get that check.
Shortage of deliveries to local stores due to fuel shortage.
Having to choose between heating oil and food.
Shortage of food itself.
Bank account closures ala Argentina.

Hunger will be the number one driving factor for riots if Government is not Johnny on the spot with the soup lines and FEMA camps. (They can't get it done.)
There will be blood.

#2
Loss of basic city services.
Electricity.
Water.
Let the water pressure drop in the city for more than a few weeks until it ceases to flow and watch what happens.
People will burn it to the ground.
Nuff said.

#3
Welfare and Food Stamps.
Government hand outs
Let these come a bit late for awhile. It won't take long, there will be riots.
These, in the beginning will probably be quashed rather quickly as most of the participants that will 'GO First' are pretty much a captured audience.
As time wears on it will get out of hand as the rioters 'Smarten up' and begin to seek their victims on a smaller less obtrusive yet just as deadly scale.

I'm still thinking, but thats the top three off the top of my head.
The timeline for each is the critical point. No one really knows.

[pacelli]

In my view we're already in the early stages of a SHTF scenario, like Ms. Doodahs and others, I think it is entirely based in the economy.

My biggest concern is the possibility of hyperinflation:


Before World War I Germany was a prosperous country, with a gold-backed currency, expanding industry, and world leadership in optics, chemicals, and machinery. The German Mark, the British shilling, the French franc, and the Italian lira all had about equal value, and all were exchanged four or five to the dollar. That was in 1914. In 1923, at the most fevered moment of the German hyperinflation, the exchange rate between the dollar and the Mark was one trillion Marks to one dollar, and a wheelbarrow full of money would not even buy a newspaper. Most Germans were taken by surprise by the financial tornado.

"My father was a lawyer," says Walter Levy, an internationally known German-born oil consultant in New York, "and he had taken out an insurance policy in 1903, and every month he had made the payments faithfully. It was a 20-year policy, and when it came due, he cashed it in and bought a single loaf of bread." The Berlin publisher Leopold Ullstein wrote that an American visitor tipped their cook one dollar. The family convened, and it was decided that a trust fund should be set up in a Berlin bank with the cook as beneficiary, the bank to administer and invest the dollar.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/shared/minitext/ess_germanhyperinflation.html

In my view, all serious and realistic SHTF situations will flow from the beginning of hyperinflation.

[FindLiberty]

Don't give 'em any more ideas folks.

They'll either do it to us, or worse yet...

...try to protect us from it!

[enter`name`here]

I can't believe no one has said the most obvious one: nuclear war.

[MsDoodahs]

In the nuclear war scenario, I figure I'd be dead...

[ingrid]

Okay, I can "imagine" what this scenario would be like, but I'm wondering what all of your ideas are. I'm sure each person has
their own idea of a SHTF scenario and the liklihood of "their" scenario happening. So what do you all think is the most likely SHTF scenario that would happen? How likely is it to happen? And what will "disappear" from life as we know it?


My SHTF scenario is: martial law declared, US is a total police state, people are being locked up left and right, many flee to the rural areas to hide out and stay under the radar. I don't know, that's really all I can come up with. Anyways, please see the questions above.

Interesting topic. I really enjoy reading these threads. I'll describe my thoughts (or at least some of them)

Other countries helping us? (or more likely our government against us)
Europe might be going through the same thing. I also don't think most of the countries we "help" would do much if anything for us. I think Mexico would take the Southwest. They would just declare it and it would be so (unless NAU has already taken place). In the beginning, China will probably unload its reserve of U.S dollars, buying up resources and causing further chaos.

What would our military and police be doing?
When my ex was in the military, he was asked if he would shoot fellow Americans who were breaking the law during a period of martial law (this was before Katrina). That said I'd like to (and I know I'm being naive) think that most wouldn't act against us or they would desert to take care of their families.

I'm more worried about the UN coming in...

Would people be taking a stand against the government or would they just accept it?
I'd like to think a lot of people would take a stand, but I also think the old saying: 'if you put a frog in boiling water, he'll jump out, but if you toss him in warm water and slowly raise the temperature, he'll fall asleep and never wake up, and that's how you kill him' seems to be true. And the system knows it. I think things will get bad slowly. I hope enough people try to change things before it's too late.

Are people in the country better off than people in the city?
Pretty much yeah...However, I would define "rural" as being at least 3 days walking distance from a major city. In my part of Maryland (suburbs), the poor sections are not that far from the middle class and rich areas and that is pretty much true for all of central Maryland. But I don't just see people who depend on the government as the only ones causing trouble.

There are a lot of Holocaust tales of people taking in others they barely knew, feeding them, sheltering them, under threat of death. There are also Great Depression tales of people going around to houses, asking for food and then leaving after they got some (or if they didn't). I don't think either will happen this time around. People aren't really going to help strangers nor will the strangers leave peacefully.

People in the old days seemed to have different values. In my family, my great-grandfather refused to accept a war bonus that was offered early (because of the Depression), because he didn't think that was right. The neighbors had to "trick" him into accepting it, since his family really needed it. And on my mother's side, our great-grandfather refused to join the Fascist party because he didn't agree with it. His wife had to join to keep the store open so they could eat (they had seven kids).

There's a lot of entitlement nowadays and people aren't taught to take care of themselves. A lot of times you're actually looked down upon for doing so. Anyway, you don't need a huge mass of people to make things difficult of you. A crowd of 20 showing up at your house is plenty to cause trouble.

Other thoughts
Lots of panic. Especially in the beginning. People committing suicide because they lost their savings. People making stupid decisions. People turning on each other.

I also think there will be a lot of "mindless violence," not just violence because people want your stuff. Your chances of survival depend greatly on the type of people around you. When my grandmother was growing up during WWII, there was enormous poverty and death all around. They suffered greatly, not only by their government, but also the Germans and the Americans. One of my grandmother's stories is from when the Americans decided to bomb a bread line. But despite this, the locals didn't turn on each other.

Look at what's going on. I read in the local news yesterday about two adults who kidnapped and tortured two teens over a video game...I could mention countless other local stories that happened in just the last month. If people do that crap during "good times," just imagine what will happen when things break down. That said, I don't think most people are like that...but once again, just a small number can cause a lot of trouble.

Chances of happening?
Part of me thinks it's likely, but then another part of me thinks that the other part is just being crazy.

But things do fall apart and it's not unheard of. Like I said, I think the system will let things happen slowly. I also don't see a total collapse happening when most people have guns and have that right. I think there are a bunch of signs that suggest that we are in the beginning stages of a collapse. I think the big 'game over' sign will be when there is a ban on taking assets out of the country. I also think when we start the "end stage", things will fall apart rather quickly and the situation will stay that way for a long, long time.

[jkm1864]

1. Possible nuclear terrorist attack or Obama is killed.

2. All the banks go belly up meaning no money for YOOOOU!

3. No banks = No paychecks meaning people do not goto work

4. Truckers don't work for free folks= no food on the shelves

5. Soon utilities shut down because no one is paying their bills so no electricity or water

6. The SHEEPLE riot because they have no food.

7. The racist will incite riots and urban people will form gangs to get what they want

8. The middle class will be attacked because they are perceived as being rich

9. People like me will board up their homes and any holes will have barrels sticking out.

10. The so called good will will be gone over night as mass rapings and lynchings continue.

11. The police are totally ganked by the roving gangs and refuse to go out and enforce the law.

12. The government declares martial law and anyone seen after dark will be killed on sight.

13. The government sends FEMA door to door to confiscate all weapons and food for the so called good of all..

14. The freedom lovers fight FEMA or get out of dodge.

15. The government will round up all undesirables and place them in FEMA/CONCENTRATION camps.

16. The US is no longer a super power so the cats come out and play WW3 breaks out.

17. The world wide famine will continue and spread to the developing nations

18. WW3 will go global due to shrinking resources so every nation on earth will be involved


Boy this is so rosy it makes me stock up on food and ammo. I do not think this will even do the horrors and justice. I would not be suprised if canabalism becomes a new fad across the earth. Now before You say this guy is a nut remember the things that have been going on have been going on for years. They have people starving all over the world and its getting worse due to global weather changes. Our own crops are down due to the weather and changes in legislation for making fuel out of food. It will be bad because everyone in this society is dependent on everyone else and no one is a jack of all trades. I for one plan to leave dodge and live in a tent if I have to but maybe i'll stick around to see it unfold.

[christagious]

Interesting topic. I really enjoy reading these threads. I'll describe my thoughts (or at least some of them)

Other countries helping us? (or more likely our government against us)
.......................

What would our military and police be doing?
........................

Would people be taking a stand against the government or would they just accept it?
...............................

Are people in the country better off than people in the city?
.....................

Other thoughts
.............

Chances of happening?
......
.

Excellent post, definitely what I was looking for.

I'm really hoping that a SHTF scenario won't happen; I"m really scared it will though. I have a feeling I'll be suffering greatly in a situation such as this because I"m not prepared whatsoever and I can't really prepare because I can't afford it. I'm dead broke, in debt, have collectors calling everyday. I pretty much CAN'T prepare so if SHTF, I don't know what I'll do.