View Full Version : Let's play a game
Sematary
08-27-2007, 11:09 PM
I don't know what the prize could be, but let's play a game.
The game is to guess (closest to the actual number) how much in donations the campaign pulled in this quarter. Or, more accurately, what the campaign WILL pull in this quarter. So, I'll start.
My guess - 6.7 million dollars.
jjschless
08-27-2007, 11:10 PM
8.3 Million Dollars (In Dr. Evil Accent for comedic purposes)
Sematary
08-27-2007, 11:11 PM
8.3 Million Dollars (In Dr. Evil Accent for comedic purposes)
lol
What should the prize be?
risiusj
08-27-2007, 11:12 PM
A Ron Paul presidency of course!
Sematary
08-27-2007, 11:14 PM
A Ron Paul presidency of course!
That would be awesome!
JoshLowry
08-27-2007, 11:21 PM
Raised in Q3: $4 million
Cash on hand: $5 million
I hope I'm way off. I guess we won't know til October 15th though...
risiusj
08-27-2007, 11:21 PM
I'll say he raises 48.9 million dollars. (This is of course including inflation.)
If I'm right, he'll have to get coverage from the media, and if he doesn't then he can buy it.
So there will be no need for any prize from you, Sematary.
Sematary
08-27-2007, 11:30 PM
I'll say he raises 48.9 million dollars. (This is of course including inflation.)
If I'm right, he'll have to get coverage from the media, and if he doesn't then he can buy it.
So there will be no need for any prize from you, Sematary.
I think $10m is a possibility but a long shot
McDermit
08-27-2007, 11:40 PM
5.2mil. hopefullllllly much more!
jjschless
08-27-2007, 11:41 PM
The prize will be that the losers of this game have to donate to the campaign. :)
Sematary
08-27-2007, 11:49 PM
The prize will be that the losers of this game have to donate to the campaign. :)
I like it - everyone that loses has to donate what? Let's keep it easy for those of us who are poor - $25
Sematary
08-27-2007, 11:54 PM
he raised 3.4 million cash on hand 5 million
How are we going to keep track of this?
LibertyEagle
08-28-2007, 12:02 AM
he raised 3.4 million cash on hand 5 million
LOL. Wouldn't that mean he virtually has spent nothing since last quarter? Remember he now is paying for a much larger headquarters and has gone from about 7 employees to around 33.
john_anderson_ii
08-28-2007, 01:46 AM
I wager a $50 donation per month for the entirety of Q4.
My cards are $4,500,000 ($50,000 a day for 90 days).
This will leave a COH value of about $5,800,000 if the campaign spends 100% more this quarter, than they did last quarter.
honkywill
08-28-2007, 02:20 AM
i'm gonna say 2.6 million raised this quarter.
i hope hope hope i'm wrong.
LibertyOfOne
08-28-2007, 02:25 AM
I would guess at 3.7 million this Q
DjLoTi
08-28-2007, 03:12 AM
I'm guessing 4.1
SJohnsson
08-28-2007, 03:27 AM
6.75 million... we're good to go
V-rod
08-28-2007, 04:41 AM
Where can we get some indication to help predict the figures? I know that some blogs inflated Q2's possible number to almost double what he made.
But Paul did say he made 75,000 in one day weeks ago, and if we keep that as an average, 62k per day would be a conservative estimate if we add on future recruitments into his message and subtract people who max out their donations. So I'd imagine that 5.5-6million is probably what he'll get unless there is some more attention from corporate television media.
We are also donating much of our time and resources to campaign on our own, while Romney and Giuliani have to spend a lot for their support. If Ron Paul had to pay us for our time and effort, Rudy McRomney would have to pool all their money together to match the cost.
They will learn you cannot buy true enthusiasm.
Sematary
08-28-2007, 07:11 AM
Where can we get some indication to help predict the figures? I know that some blogs inflated Q2's possible number to almost double what he made.
But Paul did say he made 75,000 in one day weeks ago, and if we keep that as an average, 62k per day would be a conservative estimate if we add on future recruitments into his message and subtract people who max out their donations. So I'd imagine that 5.5-6million is probably what he'll get unless there is some more attention from corporate television media.
We are also donating much of our time and resources to campaign on our own, while Romney and Giuliani have to spend a lot for their support. If Ron Paul had to pay us for our time and effort, Rudy McRomney would have to pool all their money together to match the cost.
They will learn you cannot buy true enthusiasm.
sounds like you're in the ballpark I'm figuring
bc2208
08-28-2007, 08:28 AM
$4.89 Million
Price is Right rules?
wolv275
08-28-2007, 08:34 AM
How about we try to guess how much money he is saving on a monthly basis, by the awesome grass roots effort that all of you donate in time/money/advertising.
maxmerkel
08-28-2007, 08:35 AM
3.21 Million raised this quarter.
please stop that 4+ Million Bullshit and get realistic, i still hate Free Market News for their totally exaggerated Q2 rumors.
there are hundreds of fairs we do not cover but all other candidates and their paid staff do and this is only california:
http://www.gunshows-usa.com/california.htm
http://www.cdfa.ca.gov/fe/fairlist2.asp?i=09
V-rod
08-28-2007, 08:38 AM
$4.89 Million
Price is Right rules?
LoL, I bid one dollar
MsDoodahs
08-28-2007, 08:41 AM
1.6 million
Sematary
08-28-2007, 08:44 AM
How about we try to guess how much money he is saving on a monthly basis, by the awesome grass roots effort that all of you donate in time/money/advertising.
Impossible to quantify
Sematary
08-28-2007, 08:45 AM
1.6 million
really? You think he did that poorly?
maxmerkel
08-28-2007, 08:45 AM
1.6 million
propably my $3.21 million was to high. you are right, i hope its higher but i think we have to be realistic : a lot of donors maxed out in Q1 and Q2 and due to a lack of MSM coverage and TV debates paul didn't get a lot of new donors. sad but true.
my new bet: $1.8 Million
Original_Intent
08-28-2007, 08:48 AM
3.21 Million raised this quarter.
please stop that 4+ Million Bullshit and get realistic, i still hate Free Market News for their totally exaggerated Q2 rumors.
there are hundreds of fairs we do not cover but all other candidates and their paid staff do and this is only california:
http://www.gunshows-usa.com/california.htm
http://www.cdfa.ca.gov/fe/fairlist2.asp?i=09
Ron Paul himself set "triple what he raised in Q2" as the GOAL at the beginning of Q3 - we still have a month+, so I don't think 5 mill or more is unrealistic. His base is growing exponentially.
honkywill
08-28-2007, 01:23 PM
well i made a thread where i counted the total number of donors for his birthday and set the average at 25 a donor it didn't even hit $40,000... and in how many days was that?
JosephTheLibertarian
08-28-2007, 01:34 PM
14.3 million
MsDoodahs
08-28-2007, 02:36 PM
I don't mean to sound like I'm pessimistic, I'm actually not pessimistic about the campaign at all.
I'm trying to be realistic.
I maxxed out my contribution last quarter.
How many others with the means to hit their max pretty quickly did likewise?
I don't think there will be as many max donations coming in this quarter, which will take the final total down some.
Most donors, from what I read today in a news piece someone linked to the forums here, are contributing less than $50 (that was information Dr. Paul gave the reporter IIRC).
To hit $1,600,000 in $50 increments, you need 32,000 people making a $50 donation.
There are 33,000 that belong to meetup groups.
So yeah, I think 1.6 million is a reasonable expectation for direct to the campaign donations.
The thing is, Dr. Paul is getting HUGE donations of time and money that are not going through the campaign - the grassroots stuff that we are doing.
I've contributed an additional $600 so far, and will contribute more as various projects come up.
I'm sure others have done the same.
That is money not counted in the campaign's fundraising totals. And it totals up to a whole lot of money and more importantly, a whole lot of support. It's how we keep RP in the running.
We put up signs, we buy slimjims and flyers and hand them out on streetcorners, we march, we chalk sidewalks, we buy our own commercials, we buy our own ads in all sorts of newspapers all across the land, we organize rallies and food drives, and on and on...
What we are doing for Ron is the stuff none of the other candidates have, and all of them would kill for.
I know the fundraising is important - I am not saying it isn't.
But, the other candidates don't have US.
We are ... priceless.
:)
V-rod
08-28-2007, 02:44 PM
I don't mean to sound like I'm pessimistic, I'm actually not pessimistic about the campaign at all.
I'm trying to be realistic.
I maxxed out my contribution last quarter.
How many others with the means to hit their max pretty quickly did likewise?
:)
I think under 2million is a little too pessimistic. Some of the diehards on this board may of max'd out, but there are many thousands of Ron Paul supporters out there who haven't donated yet or have donated under a few hundred dollars and plan on donating more. My family and friends are planning on donating some, and I will donate again before the end of this quarter. There are many non-rabid Ron Paul supporters out there who are a little conservative with their money, but they'll send some every month or two.
Cowlesy
08-28-2007, 03:09 PM
$3,132,495.76
You know someone made a donation and went out two decimal places.
tmg19103
08-28-2007, 03:19 PM
$3,456,345.78
Cowlesy
08-28-2007, 03:30 PM
$3,456,345.78
damn you!
I'm still waiting for someone to bid "i", the imaginary number.
Mesogen
08-28-2007, 04:01 PM
This is simply to win a prize, but I say $5 million.
lloydian
08-28-2007, 04:06 PM
Q3 donations = $3.4 million
mtmedlin
08-28-2007, 04:29 PM
Yes some maxed out but last quarter his meetup membership was under 2000 I believe. Alot of new converts and also several months of "more money then McCain".
I bid
$3,840,000 with $4.4 on hand.
JPFromTally
08-28-2007, 05:31 PM
7,938,000,000 Iraqi Dinar.
From http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3880
Currency: The new Iraqi dinar (NID)
Inflation rate: 40.92 percent in April 2007
Exchange rate: 1,260 NID per US$1
What went wrong? The war. In October 2003, the U.S. Coalition Provisional Authority introduced the New Iraqi Dinar to replace the old “Swiss” dinars that featured the likeness of ousted dictator Saddam Hussein. But the new design may have been the high point for the NID. Iraq’s inflation rate averaged 50 percent last year, as spiraling security costs and persistent shortages of gasoline fueled rampant inflation, while black market profiteers bid up the unofficial price of petrol. Struggling to keep inflation in check, Iraq’s beleaguered central bank allowed the dinar to appreciate by 14 percent and raised interest rates to 20 percent in December 2006. Inflation reached a peak of more than 66 percent in January 2007, but declined to a “mere” 40 percent in April. It’s an encouraging sign, but unless the country’s raging sectarian violence gets under control, not even Alan Greenspan will be able to turn Iraq’s economy around.
Doesn't a fiat currency just make you feel so much richer??
john_anderson_ii
08-28-2007, 06:14 PM
I wouldn't be too pessimistic, like the 1.6 million figure.
Let's just take the meet up group competition as an example. If we examine dollar spread from 1st place to 25th place from the standings website, we see that the minimum amount donated just for this competition is $73,333. That is if 1st place donated $9980 and 25th place donated $0. We know that isn't the case. I'm thinking that first place probably donated more along the $15,000. That would make the minimum amount raised $198,833. If you want be very optimistic and put 1st place at $20,000 raised, the minimum amount from the top 25 meetup groups becomes $323,833. Take any of those figures and factor in the $75,000 in one day, plus the $40,000 or so for the birthday card, and you'll get a picture of the money raised from just a few programs.
Keep in mind that if you watch the recent donations ticker on the website, you'll them update fairly often.
What does it all mean? I have no idea. But I think 1.6 million would be low and 5+million would be high. I hope I'm wrong about the high side, but we shall see.
akalucas
08-28-2007, 06:48 PM
well, since the average donation made by most was 50 bucks last Q I really doubt the # of people that maxed out last Q will negatively impact 4Q, since they're such a small number compared to the total who contributed. I think the number of new supporters will more than offset that small problem.
4.2 million raised
5.5 million COH
Sematary
08-28-2007, 11:39 PM
I'm still thinking around 6.5 mil
Thunderbolt
08-29-2007, 02:05 AM
...
Sematary
08-29-2007, 07:27 AM
Is there a law that says you maxed out people can't give your money to your sister or friend or a meetup cousin who can make a donation? My wife and I are dirt poor. We aren't anywhere close to maxing out. We are on a fixed income and cannot afford real food. We did what we could, but I think there are a lot of people like us. Die hard supporters who are broke.
I am guessing 1.2 million. I sure hope Sematary is correct though.
I'm wondering the same thing because I'm not close to maxed out either and never will be because financially, that simply isn't going to happen. It's been a really rough year and I've still managed to donate some but not nearly what I would like to.
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