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View Full Version : Could Ron Paul, Barr or Baldwin cost Mccain the election?




acroso
06-28-2008, 01:08 PM
I really hope so. Not because I like Obama, but because the GOP is always dismissing us or threatening to break our arms or banning us from commenting at Redstate because "we're not conservatives."

I really despise the GOP right now. Not the congressman and senators and local races, but the top of the ticket mostly and the crap that goes with the debate over mccain.

UtahApocalypse
06-28-2008, 01:09 PM
Nope... McCain will cost McCain the election

JS4Pat
06-28-2008, 01:11 PM
Nope... McCain will cost McCain the election

AMEN!

Hate the premise of that question. Another candidate who legally seeks public office and offers a different message - CAN'T COST SOMEONE ELSE THE ELECTION.

When will people stop thinking this way?

tomveil
06-28-2008, 01:12 PM
Nope... McCain will cost McCain the election

What he said.

McCain has enough issues to fail all by himself. If he can't get elected based on his platform and promises, that's nobody's fault but his.

Matt Collins
06-28-2008, 01:27 PM
If Barr throws Georgia to Obama then those few electoral votes will cost McCain the election.

I predict the margin of victory will be about 4 electoral votes.

AJ Antimony
06-28-2008, 01:31 PM
Why the fuck is it always a third party that "causes one to lose" and "steals votes"? No candidate has the votes in the first place to be stolen.

Bob Barr will steal votes from McCain just as McCain will steal votes from Obama.

Gore lost in 2000 because he wasn't a good enough candidate.

McCain will lose in 2008 because he is not a good enough candidate.

If these parties actually nominate good candidates, they'd never have to worry about third parties. Ever.

MikeSmith
06-28-2008, 02:39 PM
If Barr throws Georgia to Obama then those few electoral votes will cost McCain the election.

I predict the margin of victory will be about 4 electoral votes.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

Matt Collins
06-28-2008, 03:04 PM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10I have to wonder if Obama will take more of the South than what is posted there. After all the GOTV effort for blacks has been huge and most will be inclined to vote for Obama and of course most are concentrated in the South as seen in the below image.

Although I must say anecdotely that I made two good friends while working on the Ron Paul campaign here in Nashville with fellow Ron Paul supporters that happened to be black. One of which was a life long Democrat and was instrumental in some civil rights demonstrations back in the day and supported Ron, and another is a conservative who has decided to go to law school since the campaign ended. Both are great people and don't want Obama (or McCain) in office and really had a good understanding of what Ron Paul was about. The black Democrat though was telling me trying to convince people in his all black church to support Ron Paul was like pulling teeth.



http://www.census.gov/geo/www/mapGallery/images/black.jpg

newbitech
06-28-2008, 03:25 PM
Nope... McCain will cost McCain the election

you win the thread. Now the only question is margin of victory. As we can tell from the recent state GOP conventions, there is still a lot of hangers on. These people attempted to publicly humiliate and ostracize Ron Paul supporters.

I believe that the 3rd party vote will actually make it easier for the GOP to gank the election. I think if it was just a choice between D's and R's or between the sexy young black guy and the dank old white man, Dems win because of Bush and sexy is always a favorite.

HOWEVER, this is politics and the power death grip that has been on this country since I been alive, 31 years and counting, makes ANYTHING possible. With that in mind, a fractured small government vote will make it much easier for the traditional small government party to "steal" electoral votes. If it was a straight up match, the theft would be obvious and not easily obfuscated.

That's just my take. Oh and McCain is heavily courting the "other" minority vote.
Even though current polls show Hispanics leaning heavily towards Obama, McCain has a voting record that many Hispanics can get behind. (http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewNation.asp?Page=/Nation/archive/200806/NAT20080625b.html) Links to recent article By Fred Lucas and Andrew Tashjian
CNSNews.com Investigative Reporter and Correspondent
June 25, 2008

So here is a look at the Hispanic demographic.
And this is just what we could actually count.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3032/2619445334_a62ede79a9_o.jpg

MikeSmith
06-28-2008, 03:26 PM
I have to wonder if Obama will take more of the South than what is posted there. After all the GOTV effort for blacks has been huge and most will be inclined to vote for Obama and of course most are concentrated in the South as seen in the below image.

I wasn't saying Obama couldn't win Georgia. (He's currently behind 1 percentage point there, btw.) I was just saying that the election, if held today, would likely be a blowout, not a 4 electoral vote victory. Obama is ahead in the polls in all the states colored in blue.

scandinaviany3
06-28-2008, 03:32 PM
:p:p:p:p:p:p

Mccain doesnt need any help...RNC either figures a way to get him to drop out or they loose..not much to figure out

newbitech
06-28-2008, 03:49 PM
I wasn't saying Obama couldn't win Georgia. (He's currently behind 1 percentage point there, btw.) I was just saying that the election, if held today, would likely be a blowout, not a 4 electoral vote victory. Obama is ahead in the polls in all the states colored in blue.

check out the map with toss up states though.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=1

and look at the polling margins there. Most of the states that are toss up voted Repub in 2004 and the margin for Obama is slight to the plus side. except for Colorado and Ohio which have "swung" to Obama according to the polls, and Michigan and N.H. which Obama's margin is less than Kerry's when he beat Bush in those two states, the "swing" vote is McCains's to lose. One other state, Iowa which hasn't been a strong Repub state traditionally has also "swung" over according to this poll since 2004.

There also appears to be no polling data for MO (traditional Repug) and NM (traditional "swing" state), and Nevada (traditional Repub) is a tie, where Ron Paul supporters are causing a ruckus In the GOP.

If Nevada goes to Obama then Ron Paul will be blamed directly, However, I seriously doubt Nevada will be the margin of loss for McCain. Regardless, Repubs will still blame RP and friends for this loss. This would be great if we could see this in more states. But in order for that to occur, Obama has to actually win the states. Otherwise, its status quo and will appear as if our country is willing to continue down its current path. Swing state voters MUST ensure that Obama wins in order to effect change.

Couple other interesting notes, Iowa has gone back to the Dems in these polls, not a strong Repub win in 2004. Iowa and NM are the only states that swung from Dem to Repub form 2000 to 2004. Again no data from NM.

Also, very interesting, NY is still strong Dem, but not as strong as Gore 2000 or Kerry 2004. This was Hillary's "home" state. Not that I think McCain could take NY, but with 9u11iani's endorsement, it is not inconceivable that McCain could campaign hard here, pushing his experience and "maverick" image. He also represents the comfortable status quo and has some pretty heavy anti-arab, anti-terrorist rhetoric that may still appeal to some NY'ers.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3149/2618677937_cb6e7117e5_o.jpg

Matt Collins
06-28-2008, 03:50 PM
So here is a look at the Hispanic demographic.
And this is just what we could actually count. Except that map doesn't say "Hispanic or Latino citizens" Non citizens can't vote.

JS4Pat
06-28-2008, 03:54 PM
Except that map doesn't say "Hispanic or Latino citizens" Non citizens can't vote.

Can't vote LEGALLY. :D

newbitech
06-28-2008, 04:23 PM
Can't vote LEGALLY. :D

thank you!

And anyways, I am pretty sure that the census is not leaving out anyone based on immigration status including Hispanics and Blacks. I am not the sure of the source of the "black persons" chart here but it looks like it says census.

The broader point being of course, influence of the demographic. People who can't vote, for instance a Ron Paul precinct leader convicted of a drug possession felony, can still influence others who can vote and may well be a valid motive for the legal voter to do so (immigration policy anyone?)

Back to my main point, 3rd party votes make it easier for the GOP to STEAL the election. Think about a Ron Paul write-in vote in a state where he is not a write-in candidate.

Well, we were going to throw these votes away anyhow, may as well tally it up for the Repubs since Ron Paul was indeed a Repub.

Yep, and these 3rd parties won't know the difference between .8% and .9%.

And besides, will anyone actually care?

rockandrollsouls
06-28-2008, 05:08 PM
Nope... McCain will cost McCain the election

Well said.

alaric
06-28-2008, 06:03 PM
Also, note the different categories at the top of black (50%+) and latino (25%+). Big difference between 25 & 50%!

newbitech
06-28-2008, 06:59 PM
Also, note the different categories at the top of black (50%+) and latino (25%+). Big difference between 25 & 50%!

The point of the graphs are to show where the non-white population is concentrated in America. I would point out that many identify with Hispanic or Latino while also considering themselves to be black, white, even Asian. More people identify themselves as Hispanic/Latino than black.

Personally, I "could" identify myself as Latino race because of my ancestry, however I do not. I check "white non-Hispanic/Latino". I do however identify with "Hispanic/Latino" issues more than I do with "Black or African American" issues for the same reason, my ancestry. Point being, Hispanic/Latino has more influence than Black strictly based on numbers. But again, the point is where that influence is occurring.

Well, if you would be concerned about the actual numbers take a look.


2006

Total:
299,398,485
*****
Not Hispanic or Latino: 255,146,207 +/-10,602

Black or African American alone 36,434,530 +/-40,161

Hispanic or Latino: 44,252,278 +/-10,603


White alone 23,154,516 +/-114,613

Black or African American alone 616,953 +/-20,461

American Indian and Alaska Native alone 333,880 +/-16,190

Asian alone 154,694 +/-8,161

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone 38,964 +/-6,137

Some other race alone 18,238,347 +/-107,085

Two or more races: 1,714,924 +/-36,727

Two races including Some other race 1,158,753 +/-27,887

Two races excluding Some other race, and three or more races 556,171 +/-18,461

tajitj
06-28-2008, 07:27 PM
I think Obama has a good chance in all those Southern states. I think we are underestimating the lack of enthusiasm by Republicans. Just look at the vote totals from these states. More Dems are turning out to vote in the early primaries when all the candidates were in campaigning.

If the Dems put up Biden or Richardson it would be total Dems blowout. Frankly there are many racists who will not vote for Obama. I just hope they vote for Barr and not McCain sorry to say.

Flash
06-28-2008, 07:33 PM
All the blacks and dumb young kids like Obama. I don't see how mccain can pull it off.