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amy31416
06-23-2008, 03:33 AM
I had no idea where to put this mods, so feel free to move it with reckless abandon.

Libertarians 'may send a message' to the GOPBy David Brown
TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Monday, June 23, 2008

Buzz up!







As John McCain and his strategists plot how to win the presidency, there's a bur in the equation: Ron Paul.

The Texas congressman with Pennsylvania roots officially dropped out of the Republican race for the White House, but McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee, still has a Ron Paul problem, analysts say.

The extent of the problem -- and how deeply it might cut into McCain's vote in November -- depends a lot on what kind of show Paul is planning when he holds his shadow convention in Minneapolis near the Republican National Convention in September.

"It's a headache for McCain," said Mike Gallagher, a conservative radio talk show host and frequent Fox News Channel contributor. "I don't know that it's fatal, but it's a problem that's going to be hard to shake off.

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"I think (McCain's) going to have a bigger Ron Paul problem if he tries to ignore him or avoid him or to not reach out," Gallagher said in an interview. "If McCain is trying to make inroads with the so-called conservative base, there is no down side for him to extend an olive branch.

"Let's face it, John McCain is going to need every vote he can get in November. I firmly believe it would be a huge mistake for him to misstep with Ron Paul and his supporters," Gallagher added.

Veteran political reporter John Mashek, writing this week in his column for U.S. News & World Report, described Paul as the political wild card in the presidential election.

"The Republican nightmare is for Paul backers to stay at home in a close presidential election. It could happen, since everything else has this campaign," Mashek wrote.

Paul, 72, a Green Tree native, hasn't released a detailed agenda for his rally in Williams Arena at the University of Minnesota on Sept. 2, the second day of the Republican National Convention at the Xcel Energy Center in neighboring St. Paul. Organizers hope to pack the arena with 11,000 die-hard Paul supporters to "send a message" to the Republican Party and raise money for libertarian-leaning candidates in the fall.

Paul says he has no plan to endorse McCain, with whom he disagrees on the war in Iraq and several other issues.

But Paul has kind words for two third-party candidates: Libertarian nominee Bob Barr, a former Republican congressman from Georgia, and Constitution Party nominee Chuck Baldwin, a prominent Baptist minister in Florida and leader among conservative Christians. Baldwin endorsed Paul and campaigned for him in the GOP contest for president this year.

"I hope they both together get a lot of votes," Paul said of Baldwin and Barr in a recent interview on CNN.

If energy and money from what his backers call the Ron Paul Revolution flow into a third-party push, it spells trouble for McCain, who stands to lose more votes from such efforts than does Democrat Barack Obama, analysts say. Votes going to third-party candidates in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Florida, and even Georgia, could tip those states to Obama, they say.

"McCain's got a problem," said Micah L. Sifry, author of "Spoiling for a Fight: Third-Party Politics in America" and editor of techPresident.com, which tracks how the candidates are using the Web.

"In the last few primaries, Ron Paul kept getting double-digit levels of support. It's a sign of something we already know: the Republican base is divided and being pulled in different directions," Sifry said. "One of the directions it's being pulled in is the direction of the Libertarian Party."

In late contests, even after McCain clinched the nomination, Paul received 24 percent of the vote in Idaho, 22 percent in Montana, 17 percent in South Dakota, 16 percent in Pennsylvania, 15 percent in Oregon, 14 percent in New Mexico, and 13 percent in Nebraska. Overall, Paul received more than a million votes, about 5 percent of the total cast in Republican primaries, Sifry noted.

Paul surprised most of the political establishment by raising about $35 million for his campaign, mostly via the Internet. Paul won at least 35 delegates, but his campaign says he was not invited to speak in St. Paul because he refuses to endorse the presumptive nominee.

Other analysts doubt Paul will have much influence on the presidential election.

"As the voting showed in the primaries, Paul had some clout but not enough to make a real mark. Without a lot of money and support, I doubt Bob Barr is going to make his mark either," said Larry Sabato, political science professor at the University of Virginia. "Paul helps him a bit, but by and large, this will be a big-picture, clear-cut choice between the two major-party nominees."

Sabato described Paul supporters as mostly "natural Libertarians anyway." Paul was the 1988 Libertarian nominee for the White House.

Bert Rockman, chairman of the political science department at Purdue University, notes that "not all 'Paulistas' are Republicans."

"Some are independents. In any event, while they mostly seem to be for gun rights domestically and small government and low taxes, and the right to make personal choices without government interference, they are mostly against the high-profile international interventionism of the Bush administration," Rockman said. "I don't anticipate a significant Ron Paul impact because I think where it might be biggest are states already very likely to go to McCain in a big way."

Yale University political science professor David Mayhew said Barr probably won't get a big slice of McCain's vote, but the Libertarian still could be a factor.

"One or 2 percent in a close election can make a difference. McCain has enough of a problem on the conservative side that a leakage of 1 or 2 percent to an unappealing challenger on the right is not out of the question," Mayhew said.

Joseph DiSarro, chairman of the political science department at Washington & Jefferson College, agreed.

"If Bob Barr pulls a couple of points here and there in some of these key states, Obama is president," DiSarro said. "The polls all suggest McCain is behind. One of the reasons he's behind is the party is divided."



David Brown can be reached at dbrown@tribweb.com or 412-380-5614.
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http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/s_574066.html

Conza88
06-23-2008, 03:41 AM
McCain won't be getting our votes. Obama won't be getting our votes.

Technically; more votes will come from OBAMA supporters if they do. McCainites are fken delusional.

Rp has said it himself: The GOP should be encouraging him. They want to blame him though. F--kheads.

amy31416
06-23-2008, 04:08 AM
You know what is exciting though? We all have the chance to save this country. We all have an opportunity to make a difference.

Even though this is a fucked-up situation, this is where we make a difference and re-write the history books and change direction.

But this time we have to idiot-proof things.

durden0
06-23-2008, 07:01 AM
I find it funny that the pundits sit there and say "well john mccain needs to extend an olive branch to the ron paul republicans", but honestly, there's nothing he could really do to convince us to join him.

MRoCkEd
06-23-2008, 07:16 AM
I find it funny that the pundits sit there and say "well john mccain needs to extend an olive branch to the ron paul republicans", but honestly, there's nothing he could really do to convince us to join him.
If he made a speech in front of the nation admitting all of his past wrongdoings, calling to bring all of our troops home from the middleeast and elsewhere, abolishing the IRS, abolishing the Federal Reserve, and signing a contract that he must resign as president if he does not do everything in his power to try and accomplish these things once in office, thus leaving the presidency to his vice president, Ron Paul, then I might vote for him.

Bruno
06-23-2008, 07:19 AM
I find it funny that the pundits sit there and say "well john mccain needs to extend an olive branch to the ron paul republicans", but honestly, there's nothing he could really do to convince us to join him.

How true. Unless that olive branch would be to bring the troops home from foreign wars and bases, abolish the IRS, demolish the Fed, ax Real ID, restore the constitution and our civil liberties, return to sound monetary policy, etc. etc. ;)

Great article. It was heartening to read "It's a headache for McCain". lol!

speciallyblend
06-23-2008, 07:24 AM
mccain's campaign is over!!! (my opinion) i just called dave browns office and let him know about the www.lettertogop.com so he has my name and number and wants to talk about going to St Paul as well... he is very interested in the letter;) so people in a few weeks this letter will have a major bite to it,since it's coming from Republicans:)



RON PAUL 2008

tonesforjonesbones
06-23-2008, 07:53 AM
Bob Barr is pledging all those things AND admitting he was wrong about some past decisions. It doesn't seem to matter to some people.. TONES

acptulsa
06-23-2008, 07:57 AM
The G.O.P. already knows and is trying to see if they can survive even though they frankly don't give a damn. We need to get the message out to the public, not to the G.O.P.

The only message the G.O.P. will listen to is, hey, shmucks, we know where the rest of your voters are...

speciallyblend
06-23-2008, 08:00 AM
The G.O.P. already knows and is trying to see if they can survive even though they frankly don't give a damn. We need to get the message out to the public, not to the G.O.P.

The only message the G.O.P. will listen to is, hey, shmucks, we know where the rest of your voters are...

that's why our lettertogop is open to all voters, it hasn't even been promoted yet and we are over 10,000, 1300 unconfirmed,so we need 10,000 confirmed ,then this will be released to the media in full force by 10,000 hardcore ron paul republicans;) and many republicans and voters from all parties;)

we are 800 voters from hitting the 10,000 mark....

Truth Warrior
06-23-2008, 08:01 AM
If he made a speech in front of the nation admitting all of his past wrongdoings, calling to bring all of our troops home from the middleeast and elsewhere, abolishing the IRS, abolishing the Federal Reserve, and signing a contract that he must resign as president if he does not do everything in his power to try and accomplish these things once in office, thus leaving the presidency to his vice president, Ron Paul, then I might vote for him.
He'd SAY whatever it takes to get elected. :rolleyes:

dirknb@hotmail.com
06-23-2008, 08:06 AM
Like there's anything McPain could do to gain our support. What a joke!

Truth Warrior
06-23-2008, 08:10 AM
Bob Barr is pledging all those things AND admitting he was wrong about some past decisions. It doesn't seem to matter to some people.. TONES
He'd SAY whatever it takes to get elected. :rolleyes:

speciallyblend
06-23-2008, 09:30 AM
He'd SAY whatever it takes to get elected. :rolleyes:

I'm no barr fan but if Ron Paul seems to trust him ,i have to give him a look;) not sure yet who ill vote for barr or baldwin, longtime to make a decision, though i still think the door is open to get Ron Paul the republican nomination, 3 months is an eternity and we now have the delegate list to educate people on the truth,just imagine first vote at the republican convention and not enough vote for mccain, never say never:)

HOPE FOR AMERICA and educate, it's a call to arms by RON PAUL, IT IS UP TO US if WE WANT RON PAUL AS OUR NOMINEE:) he said so himself:)

thomaseusin
06-23-2008, 11:19 AM
Think the Democratic primaries was rough?

The Republican primaries opened up many eyes about issues and fundamentals of our country and made me believe there's only 1 candidate to push for.

How can we ever choose anyone else over RP?

JosephTheLibertarian
06-23-2008, 11:39 AM
He'd SAY whatever it takes to get elected. :rolleyes:

You're a fool.

Aratus
06-23-2008, 11:40 AM
sounds like ron paul is not trying to directly hamstring mccain no more than karl rove is...
and although ron paul well knows that ralph nader is well situated out there, he's ALSO trying
to encourage BOTH baldwin and barr. i feel he wants obama and mccain not to take anything
for granted. if the G.O.P really clamps down on the rEVOLUTIOn mini-convention, if they look
very high horse and repressive, like up there with BOSS DALEY in 1968, even if Ron Paul himself
never really legitimizes or encourages the same, our fellow rEVOLUTIOn people could solidify & clarify and find themselves becoming a political party rather than merely toying with the idea of running someone
like BARRY GOLDWATER jr. in 2012... we know we ALL have trial ballooned quite a few ideas...

i repeat. john mccain is a political animal --- john mccain is not a total idiot an' he almost psychically
can see this all coming. he may also desire a likewise conformity to the high degree g.w bush does,
and again, PLEASE don't laugh at me, for mike huckabee, jeb bush and mitt romney are eye~ing
the sceptor & crown KYNGE GEORGE THAh SORTA*TEXAN now has... i feel mccain senses 2012 looming!

fr33domfightr
06-23-2008, 12:12 PM
In the end, the Repubs might try to blame Ron Paul, but since he isn't a nominee of any party that would be a lame excuse.


FF