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TheOnlyOne
08-26-2007, 01:23 PM
According to http://politicalroads.blogspot.com Ron Paul is now at his highest yet. Great news, obviously, as it shows he is slowly but surely gaining ground.
itsnobody
08-26-2007, 01:28 PM
5.6% in which poll? Hmm...5/9 is great...just like his donations..
TheOnlyOne
08-26-2007, 01:29 PM
They do their own polling. The site is managed by a political scientist.
stevedasbach
08-26-2007, 01:32 PM
It seems like they've been using the Intrade numbers.
MicroBalrog
08-26-2007, 01:36 PM
I have questions:

1. How is their polling done? Interwebs or real calls? If the latter, why are their numbers bigger then the ones in Gallup?

2.Who are Intrade?
TheOnlyOne
08-26-2007, 01:38 PM
They don't discuss their methods, but it's safe to say they incorporate more than just the traditional landlines. They probably do use intrade, considering the precision it has had in the last elections.
stevedasbach
08-26-2007, 01:39 PM
Intrade is a prediction market. It's not polling.

www.intrade.com
wgadget
08-26-2007, 08:30 PM
Bump
kylejack
08-26-2007, 08:56 PM
Intrade has to do with people investing in Ron Paul, nothing to do with actual polling.
Wyurm
08-26-2007, 09:16 PM
Intrade is a prediction market. It's not polling.

www.intrade.com

We know, but the thing is that it tends to be more accurate than traditional polling.
kylejack
08-26-2007, 09:29 PM
We know, but the thing is that it tends to be more accurate than traditional polling.
(Citation needed)
Ninja Homer
08-26-2007, 09:38 PM
Intrade has to do with people investing in Ron Paul, nothing to do with actual polling.

Think of it like this:
With a poll, you say who you want to win.
With a bet, you say who you think is going to win, and stand to win or lose money based on what you think.

If 5.9% of people think Ron Paul will win, I think there are a lot more people who want him to win.

The problem is, many voters get this stupid-ass idea that they should vote for whoever seems to be winning (usually according to MSM) rather than voting for who they want to win, just so they can feel like they are on the winning team. What's ironic is that these are the losers that screw up the voting system. Instant runoff anyone?
foraneagle2
08-26-2007, 10:18 PM
Polling measures the percentage of people supporting a candidate.
A prediction market measures the probability of the candidate actually winning.

I trust intrade far more than polls since people are actually betting their money. In other words, if it is inaccurate, there is room for someone to make a profit. It is like the stock market: if a stock is undervalued, people will buy it; if it is overvalued, people will sell it. Traders in a prediction market utilize ALL information at their disposal (polling numbers, etc.); therefore the prices accurately reflect the current opinion of traders (experts) as determined by the market.
austin356
08-26-2007, 10:20 PM
It said on the blog:

"in our weekly survey ron paul is at 5.6%"

What survey. Intrade is not a weekly survey.
jj111
08-26-2007, 10:21 PM
Intrade has to do with people investing in Ron Paul, nothing to do with actual polling.

Wagering money on Intrade is called "speculation", not investing, no matter which candidate you bet on.

If you put your time into helping Ron win, that could be considered "investing" time into the future of America.
MicroBalrog
08-29-2007, 12:01 AM
It said on the blog:

"in our weekly survey ron paul is at 5.6%"

What survey. Intrade is not a weekly survey.

Intrade has him at 2.0.