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View Full Version : Great WSJ article (!) on the RP effect on McCain's campaign




josh24601
06-13-2008, 12:13 AM
There's no forum for "Good Ron Paul Media Stories" so I give it to you here.

Fantastic look at how dearly we are needed by McCain and how HE WON'T GET US.

http://blogs.wsj.com/politicalperceptions/2008/06/12/the-ron-paul-vote-a-headache-for-john-mccain/




June 12, 2008, 10:30 pm
The Ron Paul Vote: A Headache for John McCain?
rhodes_cook_cs_20080418111344.jpg

Rhodes Cook is a veteran Washington political analyst who tracks national elections and voting trends and publishes a bimonthly political newsletter. Click here for Cook’s full bio.

There is plenty of focus these days on whether Barack Obama can win the lion’s share of the 18 million or so voters who backed Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries and caucuses.

It is a worthy question. But just as important may be the ultimate destination of the 1.2 million voters on the Republican side who cast their ballots for Ron Paul. For while there has been a rapprochement of sorts between Sens. Clinton and Obama, that has not been the case as yet between Rep. Paul and John McCain.

The outspoken libertarian, anti-Iraq war congressman from Texas has been regarded by many in the GOP as a “nutty uncle,” with his ubiquitous campaign signs and dedicated cadre of Internet-savvy supporters. Asked recently by Newsweek what his relationship was with Sen. McCain, Rep. Paul responded: “It pretty much doesn’t exist. He has his beliefs and I have mine, and they just don’t come together very well.”

Rep. Paul underscored that Thursday night when he announced his withdrawal from the Republican presidential race, throwing his support — and considerable fund-raising prowess — behind an effort to elect libertarian-leaning Republicans in November. He didn’t endorse Sen. McCain.

That lack of a relationship –- if it persists — could cost Sen. McCain dearly in the fall.That lack of a relationship – if it persists - could cost Sen. McCain dearly in the fall. In Iowa, Rep. Paul drew nearly 12,000 votes in this year’s Republican caucuses, almost 2,000 more than President Bush’s margin of victory in the state in 2004. In New Mexico, the roughly 15,500 Republican primary votes cast for Rep. Paul this month were more than double Mr. Bush’s margin of victory four years ago. Together, the two states have 12 electoral votes – Iowa seven; New Mexico five – that could be in jeopardy of deserting the GOP column.

Gauging Potential Fallout

And that is just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the damage that a massive defection by libertarian Republicans could do to Sen. McCain’s presidential hopes. The large “l” Libertarian Party has already nominated former Republican Rep. Bob Barr of Georgia as its presidential candidate, and is ready to greet Ron Paul supporters with open arms.

The Libertarians peaked just short of 1 million votes in the presidential election of 1980, and are hoping to easily surpass that milestone this year. Mr. Barr is working to gain a spot on the ballot in all 50 states (although Oklahoma and West Virginia are considered problematic), and has begun raising money telethon-style for the costly ballot access process. As of Thursday night, the tote board on the Barr campaign Web site showed more than $258,000 in contributions.

His campaign could negatively affect Sen. McCain in two distinct ways. Nationally, it could serve as a vehicle of protest for hundreds of thousands of libertarian Republicans who see the GOP straying during the Bush years from the party’s commitment to small government, individual freedom, and no foreign entanglements. More so, at the state level, Mr. Barr could draw enough support to swing a passel of electoral votes from Republican to Democratic.

Historically, the Libertarian Party has been strongest in the West, capturing an impressive 12% of the vote in 1980 in Alaska. But Rep. Paul showed broader range in the Republican voting this year. He garnered at least 15% of the GOP primary or caucus vote in two Northeastern states (Maine and Pennsylvania), three Midwestern states (Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota), and four Western states (Alaska, Idaho, Montana and Washington). To be sure, some of Rep. Paul’s better showings were in states that voted after Sen. McCain had the nomination sewn up and other major contenders had quit the race. Yet even in the final weeks of the primary season, there were almost always other options to Sen. McCain on the ballot besides the Texas congressman.

A Southern Strategy?

The only region of the country in which Rep. Paul did not run so well was the South, where his best showings were 7% of the vote in late primaries in Kentucky and North Carolina. But the South is Mr. Barr’s home region. A recent poll in Georgia showed him drawing close to 10% of the general election vote – a percentage that could put the normally Republican state into play if it stayed that high.

Making matters dicier for the Republicans is that disaffected Clinton voters do not have a similar high-profile option on the left to lodge a protest vote. Ralph Nader is running again as an independent. But his quadrennial forays have taken on an increasingly quixotic look. The Green Party is poised to nominate Cynthia McKinney, an African-American former congresswoman from the Atlanta area. But her candidacy has lacked the visibility and fund-raising capacity of the Libertarian effort.

Meanwhile, Rep. Paul and the GOP continue on a collision course. Anticipating being denied a speaking role at the Republican convention because he has not endorsed Sen. McCain, Rep. Paul has rented a hall in Minneapolis to hold a competing rally on the second night of the convention. While Republican officials don’t worry so much about the rally, they do worry about the possibility of Paul forces stirring up trouble in writing the party’s platform.

The best advice it would seem for Sen. McCain is to either make nice with his feisty challenger — or stock up on the Excedrin.

Write to Rhodes Cook at Rhodescook@aol.com.

AJ Antimony
06-13-2008, 12:19 AM
Eh hem, posted already

american.swan
06-13-2008, 12:35 AM
I think they are setting up McCain to lose to Obama. They'll probably blame Ron Paul for the loss. Painful but not impossible.

I think we need to f-up the GOP Elitist Platform. That will get us some publicity.

Primbs
06-13-2008, 12:58 AM
They have been warned. Obama has his own set of problems as well.

hahajohnnyb
06-13-2008, 11:47 AM
Worst thing that could happen to the Republicans now is to win.

UtahApocalypse
06-13-2008, 11:56 AM
do people read these forums anymore or just post??

THIRD time this has been posted in 2 hours

Ethek
06-13-2008, 03:43 PM
90% of the blog articles never make it to print. Almost like a self pat on the back.

kombayn
06-13-2008, 03:45 PM
If McCain wins. I think I will lose all hope. God those John McCain ads at the bottom are so annoying too.