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Bradley in DC
05-25-2008, 05:43 PM
http://www.electionprojection.com/archives050108.html#tie052308

Electoral vote tie: McCain 269, Obama 269

If the numbers don't change between now and then, Election Projection will show a 269-269 tie between Barack Obama and John McCain when this week's projection is posted on Sunday evening. Recent polls have pulled Ohio into McCain's column and Wisconsin into Obama's.

Aratus
05-25-2008, 05:45 PM
Bradley in DC... didn't i have a theory about this? how its the classic divide?
how obama verses mccain almost inately does this despite or because of nader and barr?

forsmant
05-25-2008, 05:46 PM
What are the odds of this hypothetical situation? I am sure it is highly unlikely.

Aratus
05-25-2008, 05:50 PM
forsmant, you really would have to say what you just said at this point in time!

Bradley in DC
05-25-2008, 06:01 PM
Bradley in DC... didn't i have a theory about this?

I posted it just for you. :)

torchbearer
05-25-2008, 06:31 PM
Barr could swing Georgia to Obama.
Root could swing Nevada to Obama.

torchbearer
05-25-2008, 06:39 PM
I think Barr/Root should campaign those two states hard.
Imagine if they could win just one state and have the deciding votes of the electoral college.
What kind of deal could be made to bring our troops home?

Bradley in DC
05-25-2008, 07:00 PM
This is probably a bit dated...

If the House Decides the Election
The Twelfth Amendment30 to the US Constitution spells out the rules and processes for electing the president and vice president.

If no candidate gets the required 270 votes to make a majority of the Electoral College votes, then, as the National Archives and Records Administration explains,
the House of Representatives elects the President from the 3 Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each State delegation has one vote. The Senate would elect the Vice President from the 2 Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes. Each Senator would cast one vote for Vice President. If the House of Representatives fails to elect a President by Inauguration Day, the Vice-President Elect serves as acting President until the deadlock is resolved in the House.31

The House would vote for president by state delegation. On the assumption that party identification would be the most important factor for most of the members, and looking at the current party composition of the state delegations, we have some insight into probably outcomes. There are currently 27 Democratic majority state delegations, 21 Republican majority delegations, 2 evenly split (and effectively forfeiting their vote).

However, several states have nearly evenly split delegations that could change before January 2009. Assuming that Arizona, Kansas and Mississippi's delegations that are evenly (or nearly evenly) split actually vote for McCain (likely justified by the probable general election outcome for their respective states and districts), we would have 24 state delegation votes for U.S. Sen. John McCain out of 50.

Any vacancies or non-party votes in Republican voting states or districts would put some Democratic majority state delegations in play. Therefore, the reliance on party identification here might be fatally weakened by a measure of success of the unified slate proposal. A possible result would be to force representatives to more closely follow the wishes of their electorate than that of the party.

From the Twelfth Amendment, regarding the vice-president, “from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice. But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President to the United States.” In this case it would likely be chosen among party lines by the Democrats.

It would be possible that the U.S. would experience a “co-habitation” of the two major parties as president and vice-president.

porcupine
05-26-2008, 05:58 PM
If the numbers don't change between now and then

*yawn*

;) That's a big if, my bro. But still interesting.

Bradley in DC
05-26-2008, 06:03 PM
*yawn*

;) That's a big if, my bro. But still interesting.

Not an "if" at all, some already have. I'm referring to vacancies getting filled: the GOP has lost three straight very recently.

nate895
05-26-2008, 06:58 PM
Let's say that Barr/Root manage to win Georgia, Nevada, and let's say Oregon just to throw in a state that's voted Democratic for President recently. That is 27 electoral votes. Now McCain/GOP VP get all the states Bush won in '04, minus those previously mentioned. That is 266 votes. Then, Obama/Dem. VP get the same states as Kerry in '04, except Oregon. That is 244 votes. Also, let's say RP Republican candidates manage to take over two state delegations (I know this is unlikely), and in the House it is 25-25 Democrat-GOP, 25-23-2 if including RP delegations. This means Barr gets two votes on the floor, McCain 23, and Obama 25. Do you think there'd be a way to make a deal with either candidate to give us something, and something tangible, like if we give them to McCain, Ron Paul gets a position of leadership in the GOP ranks (like whip). Think they'd go for that?

torchbearer
05-26-2008, 07:02 PM
Let's say that Barr/Root manage to win Georgia, Nevada, and let's say Oregon just to throw in a state that's voted Democratic for President recently. That is 27 electoral votes. Now McCain/GOP VP get all the states Bush won in '04, minus those previously mentioned. That is 266 votes. Then, Obama/Dem. VP get the same states as Kerry in '04, except Oregon. That is 244 votes. Also, let's say RP Republican candidates manage to take over two state delegations (I know this is unlikely), and in the House it is 25-25 Democrat-GOP, 25-23-2 if including RP delegations. This means Barr gets two votes on the floor, McCain 23, and Obama 25. Do you think there'd be a way to make a deal with either candidate to give us something, and something tangible, like if we give them to McCain, Ron Paul gets a position of leadership in the GOP ranks (like whip). Think they'd go for that?

They are desperate for power. They'd take the deal.

Bradley in DC
05-26-2008, 07:06 PM
Also, let's say RP Republican candidates manage to take over two state delegations (I know this is unlikely), and in the House it is 25-25 Democrat-GOP, 25-23-2 if including RP delegations. This means Barr gets two votes on the floor, McCain 23, and Obama 25. Do you think there'd be a way to make a deal with either candidate to give us something, and something tangible, like if we give them to McCain, Ron Paul gets a position of leadership in the GOP ranks (like whip). Think they'd go for that?

I don't think that's right. Wouldn't it be the current congress, not the congress-elect? Or maybe I'm just thinking Cheney would still be presiding over the Senate, nevermind.

But let's say, taking the gist of your argument, that Barr won those states and would throw the election to the House. In the period after election day and before December 15th when the Electoral College meets, we will be holding cards to play, yes.

torchbearer
05-26-2008, 07:08 PM
I don't think that's right. Wouldn't it be the current congress, not the congress-elect? Or maybe I'm just thinking Cheney would still be presiding over the Senate, nevermind.

But let's say, taking the gist of your argument, that Barr won those states and would throw the election to the House. In the period after election day and before December 15th when the Electoral College meets, we will be holding cards to play, yes.


It could work.

nate895
05-26-2008, 07:08 PM
I don't think that's right. Wouldn't it be the current congress, not the congress-elect? Or maybe I'm just thinking Cheney would still be presiding over the Senate, nevermind.

But let's say, taking the gist of your argument, that Barr won those states and would throw the election to the House. In the period after election day and before December 15th when the Electoral College meets, we will be holding cards to play, yes.

It is the new Congress. The first order of business of the new Congress in Presidential Election years is to count the votes of the Electoral College.

Bradley in DC
05-26-2008, 07:13 PM
It is the new Congress. The first order of business of the new Congress in Presidential Election years is to count the votes of the Electoral College.

Yeah, I was remembering this conversation from 2000 when we debating the prospect of Gore presiding over the Senate when they would have at that time with Republican control elected Cheney as his successor. :)

Bradley in DC
05-26-2008, 07:17 PM
Do you think there'd be a way to make a deal with either candidate to give us something, and something tangible, like if we give them to McCain, Ron Paul gets a position of leadership in the GOP ranks (like whip). Think they'd go for that?

Oh, and Dr. Paul would not be a good whip--they can't get him to fall in line for their votes now, what makes you think the could expect him to get others for vote for their cr*p? ;)

Majority Leader is traditionally more the one that gives policy guidance. But why limit his potential role to the House? I still look forward to Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul... :) We would want him with something with a set term they couldn't undo quickly or easily.

nate895
05-26-2008, 08:42 PM
Oh, and Dr. Paul would not be a good whip--they can't get him to fall in line for their votes now, what makes you think the could expect him to get others for vote for their cr*p? ;)

Majority Leader is traditionally more the one that gives policy guidance. But why limit his potential role to the House? I still look forward to Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul... :) We would want him with something with a set term they couldn't undo quickly or easily.

That's true about whip. I just want him to have a position that he can go on TV on a regular basis to spread the message.

Bradley in DC
05-26-2008, 08:45 PM
That's true about whip. I just want him to have a position that he can go on TV on a regular basis to spread the message.

Agreed. Majority (or more likely Minority) Leader over Whip.