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itshappening
05-18-2008, 07:34 PM
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll has shown a very close race between John McCain and Barack Obama. For most of the past week, they have been essentially tied with typically 4% of voters saying they prefer some other candidate and a similar number remaining undecided.

A separate survey found slightly different results when third-party candidates were mentioned by name. In a four-way race, Obama earns 42% of the vote, McCain 38%, Bob Barr 6% and Ralph Nader 4%. Given those options, 11% were undecided. Barr and Nader were mentioned as candidates of the Libertarian Party and the Green Party respectively.

Barr picked up 7% of the Republican vote, 5% of the Democratic vote, and 5% of the unaffiliated vote. participants to choose between Barack Obama, John McCain and some other candidate.

Nader got 1% of the Republican vote, 3% of the Democratic vote, and 8% support from those not affiliated with either major party.

Rasmussen Reports does not typically include the names of minor third party candidates because early polls tend to dramatically overstate their ultimate level of support. However, it is occasionally useful to review the possibilities and explore what impact these candidates might have on determining the next resident of the White House.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters believe it is somewhat or very likely that a third party candidate will be elected President in the next twenty-five years or so. That includes 10% who consider a third-party President Very Likely.

Most voters—52%--say it is not likely that a third party President will be elected.

The survey also considered a match-up with Senator Hillary Clinton running as an Independent candidate. In that match-up, it’s McCain 32%, Obama 31%, Clinton 22%, Barr 3%, and Nader 3%. In that match-up, Obama wins 50% of the vote from Democrats while Clinton gets 35% and McCain 7%.

It is highly unlikely that Clinton would consider running as a third party candidate. However, a recent survey found that 29% of Democrats would like her to do so if she is not the Democratic Party nominee.

Most voters don’t know enough about Barr to have an opinion of him. Twenty-five percent (25%) have a favorable opinion of Nader while 54% have an unfavorable.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/will_third_party_candidates_tip_the_presidential_r ace
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if only Nader disappeared Barr in a three way race would be very interesting considering McCain's problems on the right.

Bradley in DC
05-18-2008, 07:49 PM
That's up from the Zogby poll:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_zogby_national_42528.php

POLL: ZOGBY NATIONAL (4/25-28)
Zogby Interactive (online)
National
n=7,653 likely voters, 4/25-28
w/ Ralph Nader and Bob Barr
Obama 45, McCain 42, Barr 3, Nader 1
McCain 44, Clinton 34, Barr 4, Nader 3

JosephTheLibertarian
05-18-2008, 07:56 PM
Has he won the nomination? No. But he would be a pretty good choice, him or Wayne Allyn Root. Have you heard Wayne's idea on taxes? It's great.

itshappening
05-18-2008, 08:02 PM
That's up from the Zogby poll:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_zogby_national_42528.php

POLL: ZOGBY NATIONAL (4/25-28)
Zogby Interactive (online)
National
n=7,653 likely voters, 4/25-28
w/ Ralph Nader and Bob Barr
Obama 45, McCain 42, Barr 3, Nader 1
McCain 44, Clinton 34, Barr 4, Nader 3

the big positive in the poll is that people still have to form an opinion on him (in other words he hasn't offended anyone :P) so in theory he has potential to climb higher IF he can get his message out and connect with voters

Kludge
05-18-2008, 08:06 PM
Has he won the nomination? No. But he would be a pretty good choice, him or Wayne Allyn Root. Have you heard Wayne's idea on taxes? It's great.

Have you heard Wayne's ideas on the Iraq war...?

JosephTheLibertarian
05-18-2008, 08:09 PM
Have you heard Wayne's ideas on the Iraq war...?

He wants to leave.

Kludge
05-18-2008, 08:19 PM
He wants to leave.

He hasn't given even a vague timeline. He says it's a "complicated issue" and that we need to "compromise". He has rejected the notion that we need to leave right now on his official website.

JosephTheLibertarian
05-18-2008, 08:21 PM
He hasn't given even a vague timeline. He says it's a "complicated issue" and that we need to "compromise". He has rejected the notion that we need to leave right now on his official website.

Look at Bobby Barr on gay marriage. Making the LP look like GOP lite

0zzy
05-18-2008, 08:21 PM
I don't like Wayne too much. He seems to fake, has no experience, etc. etc. More like a salesman than a believable candidate.

Barr is the greater salesman cause he seems more acceptable to the mainstream.

Kludge
05-18-2008, 08:27 PM
Look at Bobby Barr on gay marriage. Making the LP look like GOP lite

He argued that it's the state's right to decide.

0zzy
05-18-2008, 08:42 PM
He argued that it's the state's right to decide.

Same with Paul, I don't really understand how this is a huge issue in the first place.

AmericaFyeah92
05-18-2008, 09:03 PM
forcing legalization of gay marriage on all the states would be as bad as forcing criminalization of it.

Bradley in DC
05-18-2008, 09:03 PM
Look at Bobby Barr on gay marriage. Making the LP look like GOP lite

He's running for federal office and thinks it should be a state or private issue--the exact same position as Dr. Paul who has written supportively of Barr's approach.

MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2
05-19-2008, 07:22 AM
How does Bob Barr make it into the polls when Ron Paul was excluded despite widespread support and fundraising?

Just seems a little fishy to me, that's all.

Bradley in DC
05-19-2008, 07:38 AM
How does Bob Barr make it into the polls when Ron Paul was excluded despite widespread support and fundraising?

Just seems a little fishy to me, that's all.

Barr is much better known (lead impeachment against Clinton, former commentator on CNN, general media whore--and I mean that in a good way putting his appearances in the AP Daybook, etc.).

The Paul presidential staff has a hostile attitude towards the press (there was no "blackout") not only not putting media appearances in the AP Daybook so reporters would know about events, but often not even showing up at their own press conferences, not answering repeated media inquiries for stories from NYT and other major national media outlets (print, radio and television), etc.

A Barr presidential run would be, IMHO, our best chance to get our message heard.

[EDIT: Dr. Paul was NOT excluded from polls when running for the Republican nomination (no one is doing them anymore). I posted them on the forums to loud protests every time! Dr. Paul is not running in the general election, so no, no one would include him in those polls. Nothing fishy there.]

MoneyWhereMyMouthIs2
05-20-2008, 06:17 AM
Barr is much better known (lead impeachment against Clinton, former commentator on CNN, general media whore--and I mean that in a good way putting his appearances in the AP Daybook, etc.).

The Paul presidential staff has a hostile attitude towards the press (there was no "blackout")

Yes, there was. Not only was there a blackout with 3 remaining candidates (Paul, Huckabee, McCain), but there was disproportionate coverage from the beginning with respect to Paul's support. That's true regardless of campaign problems. When other candidates sneeze, they're reported on. You don't need a campaign staff for that.



[EDIT: Dr. Paul was NOT excluded from polls when running for the Republican nomination (no one is doing them anymore). I posted them on the forums to loud protests every time! Dr. Paul is not running in the general election, so no, no one would include him in those polls. Nothing fishy there.]

I wouldn't expect them to be talking about Paul in general election polls. there was still a legitimate comparison to be made. I'd say Barr's only included because he's more accepted by the establishment. Would they be including any other libertarian in these polls? I doubt it. Would they be including Paul if he were accepting the Libertarian nomination? I doubt it.

It's just interesting, that's all.

CUnknown
05-21-2008, 01:50 PM
Barr is not perfect (he's no Ron Paul), but I agree that he is our best shot right now at getting our message heard. With enough early support, he might even get invited to the debates ala Perot.

itshappening
05-21-2008, 02:45 PM
some are negative about Barr due to his previous votes as a GOP careerist in the house but he's a big name, known by conservatives and can advocate the LP platform nationally, if the LP don't nominate him it's their loss.

Barr is a known name and his events and stunts will make national news, the others will barely raise a whimper.

Bradley in DC
05-21-2008, 02:45 PM
Yes, there was. Not only was there a blackout with 3 remaining candidates (Paul, Huckabee, McCain), but there was disproportionate coverage from the beginning with respect to Paul's support.

You're confusing results with causes. The official campaign would not return press calls from national journalists (print, radio and TV), did not put their events in the AP daybook so journalists would know about them, held press conferences where they showed up only for Kent to tell them to get out and they wouldn't answer any questions, and lots of other reasons.