Lucille
04-28-2008, 10:31 AM
This piece (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/01/a_politicalrisk_outlook_for_20.html) has stuck with me all year.
The last several years have seen a spike in negative international sentiment toward the United States coupled with American surprise that efforts at exporting democracy haven't always gone over well, or proven successful. The main geopolitical risk in 2008 comes more from a change in domestic U.S. politics that will create greater policy uncertainty, skepticism over the United States' role as the world's policeman and - more troubling for world markets - doubts over the benefits from present trends in the global system.
Some of that change is an election-year phenomenon, including constituency-serving statements from moderate Republicans and Democrats on the stump and, more significantly, the sudden emergence of previously fringe "America first" Republican candidates like Mike Huckabee, R-Ark. and libertarian Ron Paul, R-Texas. A deterioration in consumer confidence in coming months will benefit their campaigns most, pulling the rest of the field in their direction politically.
These events will never pull McCain in Paul's direction, but it could pull more delegates his way, hm?
The last several years have seen a spike in negative international sentiment toward the United States coupled with American surprise that efforts at exporting democracy haven't always gone over well, or proven successful. The main geopolitical risk in 2008 comes more from a change in domestic U.S. politics that will create greater policy uncertainty, skepticism over the United States' role as the world's policeman and - more troubling for world markets - doubts over the benefits from present trends in the global system.
Some of that change is an election-year phenomenon, including constituency-serving statements from moderate Republicans and Democrats on the stump and, more significantly, the sudden emergence of previously fringe "America first" Republican candidates like Mike Huckabee, R-Ark. and libertarian Ron Paul, R-Texas. A deterioration in consumer confidence in coming months will benefit their campaigns most, pulling the rest of the field in their direction politically.
These events will never pull McCain in Paul's direction, but it could pull more delegates his way, hm?