Bradley in DC
04-25-2008, 07:49 PM
[again, just posting for informational purposes]
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2008041701
HOW COULD JOHN McCAIN WIN IN NOVEMBER?
History versus circumstance in the general election
Larry J. Sabato
Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
It's obvious to just about everyone that, at least theoretically, the Democrats have a near-perfect climate for presidential victory in 2008. A deeply unpopular Republican President is mired around 30 percent in the polls; last week, Bush was at 28 percent, a couple points higher than Richard Nixon on the day he resigned. Bush hasn't seen majority backing in three years or even a miserable 40 percent support level in two years. General Petraeus' optimism notwithstanding, a large majority of Americans believe that the Iraq war wasn't worth fighting and should be phased out as soon as reasonably possible. The economy has tanked, gas prices are through the roof, and an incredible eight in ten Americans think the country is seriously off on the wrong track -- usually a death knell for the White House party.
John McCain, as the nominee of the Republican Party, is saddled with the legacy of the 30 percent President. He spends much of his time defending and advocating the out-of-favor Iraq War. He admits that he knows relatively little about economics and hasn't focused on the subject during his decades in Congress. If elected, McCain would be the oldest first-term President, but this appears to be a time when the public is seeking to turn the page and start afresh. McCain has raised so little money by comparison to both his Democratic opponents that it has become a lingering embarrassment. And you tell us that McCain has a chance to win?
Well, yes. We wouldn't bet on him just now, and if he wins, it will likely be a minimal Electoral College majority. Still, it's more than theoretical that McCain could pull off an upset. Actually, the word "upset" doesn't quite capture the significance of his possible victory. Based on 220 years of precedent, a McCain win would be a striking repudiation of American history, since no presidential candidate of a two-term incumbent party has ever been elected under this set of severely adverse conditions.
April is not November, but McCain has some reason for optimism if one looks at the recent polling. Sometimes McCain is up a few points on Obama and Clinton, and sometimes he's down a few points, but it's fair to call the election a tie today. Obama does a bit better than Clinton when matched against McCain but not consistently or substantially so...
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2008041701
HOW COULD JOHN McCAIN WIN IN NOVEMBER?
History versus circumstance in the general election
Larry J. Sabato
Director, U.Va. Center for Politics
It's obvious to just about everyone that, at least theoretically, the Democrats have a near-perfect climate for presidential victory in 2008. A deeply unpopular Republican President is mired around 30 percent in the polls; last week, Bush was at 28 percent, a couple points higher than Richard Nixon on the day he resigned. Bush hasn't seen majority backing in three years or even a miserable 40 percent support level in two years. General Petraeus' optimism notwithstanding, a large majority of Americans believe that the Iraq war wasn't worth fighting and should be phased out as soon as reasonably possible. The economy has tanked, gas prices are through the roof, and an incredible eight in ten Americans think the country is seriously off on the wrong track -- usually a death knell for the White House party.
John McCain, as the nominee of the Republican Party, is saddled with the legacy of the 30 percent President. He spends much of his time defending and advocating the out-of-favor Iraq War. He admits that he knows relatively little about economics and hasn't focused on the subject during his decades in Congress. If elected, McCain would be the oldest first-term President, but this appears to be a time when the public is seeking to turn the page and start afresh. McCain has raised so little money by comparison to both his Democratic opponents that it has become a lingering embarrassment. And you tell us that McCain has a chance to win?
Well, yes. We wouldn't bet on him just now, and if he wins, it will likely be a minimal Electoral College majority. Still, it's more than theoretical that McCain could pull off an upset. Actually, the word "upset" doesn't quite capture the significance of his possible victory. Based on 220 years of precedent, a McCain win would be a striking repudiation of American history, since no presidential candidate of a two-term incumbent party has ever been elected under this set of severely adverse conditions.
April is not November, but McCain has some reason for optimism if one looks at the recent polling. Sometimes McCain is up a few points on Obama and Clinton, and sometimes he's down a few points, but it's fair to call the election a tie today. Obama does a bit better than Clinton when matched against McCain but not consistently or substantially so...