Revisiting the SC primary

[MozoVote]

Although Paul fared poorly across SC (and I think his 3% showing was the beginning of the end, of any mainstream press attention to him) I was curious about the zip codes where I had mailed 2000 post cards back last July.

There is some indication it made a difference. One of the zip codes I had selected was 29867 - Taylors, near Greenville Tech. This seems to be the only area of Greenville county where Paul has multiple precinct results above 10%. Although, his very best showing was Aiken at 15% and I didn't mail any cards there.

When the election is all done with, there may be some interesting data mining exercises where Paul "hot spots" can appear, even in states where his overall showing was weak.

[Jeremy]

My town was the highest percent for Paul in the state. The precinct leader, my brother, actually did nothing... signed up for it and that's it. I think what did it were the large amount of yard signs... only about 3 yards with signs in this small town (or near it)... really helped. People start wondering who is this guy that has 3 yards when everybody else has none. Oh and, one of those signs had flashing lights for about a month. =p

[MozoVote]

Well using all of Greenville county, there's only a tenth of a percent difference between the zip codes I mailed cards to, and those I did not.

Interestingly though - even that miniscule difference came out to .11 on a Chi-Square test. (I think due to the very large sample sizes for tens of thousands of ballots) That's an 89% confidence level, that mailing the postcards cards did influence the results, or "something else" influenced those zip codes...

I suspect the difference is really more than a tenth of a percent, though. I don't know which precincts out of the zip codes got cards. If I had better tracking of that, it would be a more meaningful test.

[MozoVote]

Couldn't resist a little more geeking on this...

While it's not statistically significant, it's still interesting that the precincts in zip codes that received post cards have a majority over the median, and the precincts outside the mailed zip codes have a majority under the median.

....................Mailed...Not Mailed
Under Median.....21......51
Over Median......25......46

[speciallyblend]

it actually marks the beginning of the end of the gop as we know it. the gop is dead in the water with mccain