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Bradley in DC
08-20-2007, 04:34 PM
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/surveys/PPP_SC_Release_081507.pdf

The latest poll in South Carolina shows Mitt Romney is only 5% behind Fred Thompson and in a virtual dead heat for second place with Giuliani. If you look at the primary timeline, You will see that Romney has clear leads in Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He is winning those states comfortably and a strong finish in SC or even a win would be detrimental to the rest of the field. Giuliani is preaching that he can win everywhere, how can that hold water when Romney whoops him in the first four states. Giuliani may be leading in the big states: New York, Texas, and California but even the latest California poll shows Romney gaining on everybody. Watch out for Romney because so long as the media propels Giuliani as the front runner, Romney can escape media scrutiny and sail to an easy victory.

South Carolina Poll

Thompson - 22%
Giuliani - 18%
Romney - 17%
McCain - 11%
Huckabee - 7%
Brownback - 3%
Paul - 2%
All others - 1% or less

FreedomLover
08-20-2007, 04:37 PM
I don't understand the "momentum" theory. If Romney were to win the the first 4 states, would that really make people want to vote for him in other states instead of someone they've already chosen?

I guess his campaign must think that, since they're injecting millions of dollars into just these couple states.

Bradley in DC
08-20-2007, 04:39 PM
I don't understand the "momentum" theory. If Romney were to win the the first 4 states, would that really make people want to vote for him in other states instead of someone they've already chosen?

I guess his campaign must think that, since they're injecting millions of dollars into just these couple states.

Can you explain how else Kerry got the nomination? :mad:

Scribbler de Stebbing
08-20-2007, 04:44 PM
One word: Baaaaaa

FreedomLover
08-20-2007, 04:53 PM
Can you explain how else Kerry got the nomination? :mad:

dems are dum ? :p

but honestly, i dont know if that means anything considering kerry won pretty much every single state, except for maybe vermont and some other edwards got.

robatsu
08-20-2007, 05:05 PM
I look at the questions in this, and it appears that it is a prerecorded poll, apparently (press 1 for...). Heck, if that is the case, beyond all the other factors, how skewed is a group of people willing to listen to a recording and take a poll. Beyond that, 2% African American in the poll, SC is 30% black, I don't know, I don't want to sound like sour grapes, but the more I see/hear about political "scientific" polling, the more this stuff just looks like wild guesswork.

Remember, leading up to the immigration bill dustup this year, there were dozens of polls being bandied about by open borders lobby, "proving" how Americans supported comprehensive immigration reform, pathway to citizenship, etc. Open borders lobbyists then used those to buck up the courage of politicians like McCain, Lindsay, who then got creamed by what the actual public opinion was. I wonder what McCain, Lindsay, Martinez, etc, all think of scientific polling now?

These things are all wildly offbase, online and scientific polls, online overestimates RP support, scientific underestimates. The only ones that ultimately matter are the ones that you have to get somebody out of the house and go somewhere to cast a ballot. That's why these straw polls are so important - they are dry runs for the real deal, we are learning what it takes to get real "votes on the ground" for RP and we should be learning whatever we can from the straw polls this fall.

mtmedlin
08-20-2007, 07:23 PM
One word: Baaaaaa

You just summed up politics in America with 2 letters.

LibertyEagle
08-20-2007, 07:46 PM
All it makes me think is man, we'd better get busy in South Carolina. I hate all these primaries bunching up.

noxagol
08-20-2007, 07:47 PM
All it makes me think is man, we'd better get busy in South Carolina. I hate all these primaries bunching up.

We have to get busy EVERYWHERE!

Bradley in DC
08-20-2007, 09:40 PM
Beyond that, 2% African American in the poll, SC is 30% black, I don't know, I don't want to sound like sour grapes, but the more I see/hear about political "scientific" polling, the more this stuff just looks like wild guesswork.

What percent of SC REPUBLICANS do you think are African American?

robatsu
08-20-2007, 10:01 PM
What percent of SC REPUBLICANS do you think are African American?

Yeah, caught that on my second reading, oops/duh. 2% might be kinda high, actually. Still, they have all their weasel words in this poll about how factors such as "weighting factors" can affect the outcome. My point is really, what is "ground truth", i.e, votes in ballot boxes, and how valuable scientific polls and their online and straw brethren are as predictive tools for RP campaign.

There is a real fog of war deal on this, like RP going into Iowa was being completely truthful when he said that he had no idea what was going to happen. And with the RP campaign, we aren't fitting into any of the convenient historical models that pollsters use to calibrate their models and assessments of margin of error. So there can be, and I think we are seeing, a wider variation between online/scientific/straw poll results for RP than other candidates whose campaigns are more conventional, hence more reliably predictable.

This sort of thing is at the heart of the subprime crisis, btw. All those quants up there modeled CDO's on the mortgage market of 90's and earlier, pretty much blue chip wage earners. Then the industry went nuts for a few years, loaning to deadbeats, but a lot of this wasn't factored into their models since there wasn't a lot of historical data.

Similarly, for insurgent campaign like RP, with some of its unique factors, is pretty hard to model. I don't know, sometimes I think about what is ground truth in the RP campaign, but then I just think, well, probably what I make it into, work hard, hope for best in primary season.

0zzy
08-20-2007, 10:08 PM
People like Huckabee for the 2nd place at Iowa? This is insane. Paul should be at top.