Will RP Do Better in Maryland or Texas Straw Poll?

[robatsu]

Nothing like a little competition.

[Nathan Hale]

It depends. Is Texas still not allowing new delegates?

[Richie]

Maryland is quite liberal/neo-con (I live there). Unless there's generally low turnout and all the meet-up groups show up, Gulliani will probably win.

[Shink]

I think he'll do better in Texas, as it's his state. I don't like they way the poll is being conducted, though...and they may all be bought and paid for by other candidates.

[bc2208]

I'd say that MD will have a lower turnout and our activism gives us an edge in smaller events - if you look at the last four we have done progressively better as the total drops. Plus the Texas one is fishy.

[itsnobody]

I don't know Texas is all delegates...so I say MD

[dseisner]

1st in both.

[robatsu]

Not a great deal of confidence in us Marylanders so far. Me, I think we will do quite well.

[OceanMachine7]

Texas. A lot of Giuliani supporters here in Maryland, esp. with Ehrlich working for his campaign.

[0zzy]

delegates = voted for bush = neocons OR upset with bush

maryland is open? I think more chance there.

[Swmorgan77]

Heheh, Maryland = Too many people from the "Tax Feeding Class" (as the 18th Century liberals called them) who have a stake in preserving big government and beurocracy.

Then again, they are close to it maybe they realize the infeasibility of all the entitlements and spending and will do the honorable thing against their own personal short-term interest.

[jblosser]

On behalf of TX, bring it. :)

BTW, we have a fair number of delegates in the meetups around the state, and several delegates I know otherwise are interested in Paul. The main thing about delegates is they take politics seriously, most of them remember what the conservative party stood for, remember Reagan well, etc. The *party* is sometimes a problem, but the delegates are more than the party.

[Dustancostine]

I am from Texas and I voted that Maryland will do better. They will probably get a Alabama type result. If we can capture about 40% of the Texas vote and win, I think that will be big. I know some people from my county that are going (that aren't RP supporters yet!!) that are going just because it is the first ever one. So I am not holding my breath for a 80% showing yet. But I think we take both of them. Also don't be surprised if Mitt tries busing people in here in Texas also.

--Dustan

[Nathan Hale]

On behalf of TX, bring it. :)

BTW, we have a fair number of delegates in the meetups around the state, and several delegates I know otherwise are interested in Paul. The main thing about delegates is they take politics seriously, most of them remember what the conservative party stood for, remember Reagan well, etc. The *party* is sometimes a problem, but the delegates are more than the party.

Agreed, and if the Texas GOP is no longer holding the threat of "no new delegates" over our head, there is a chance to build a strong Ron Paul contingent.

[austin356]

Well I say Maryland because it is open to the public.

But, while Texas does have only delegates, Presidential delegates only make up a small % of those. And on top of those everyone in 2000 and 04 knew Bush was going to win. So if anyone wanted to be a delegate, whether they were strongly in favor of bush or not, they choose Bush. Also add to the obvious facts that many formally Bushies have lost their trust in Bush's policies and thus the man himself. PD entitlement.... NCLB..... spending not seen since LBJ, the list goes on and on.

My guess is 40% in Maryland, 15-20% in Texas.

But I am in the dark as much as anyone else on here.

[constituent]

i think the biggest force of persuasion will come from the crowd showing up outside.

that will be what sells the partisans.

[Nathan Hale]

Constituent, I totally disagree. The partisans aren't sold on the grassroots support outside. They're sold by what is presented to them inside. Ron Paul still stands a good chance, even if the delegate field is limited, because he supports the Texas GOP platform moreso than any other candidate. But it's a wise idea to get delegates into the convention who will lobby for Congressman Paul.

As you say it's also wise to get a nice demonstration going outside, but that's not for the delegates, thats for the media.