Hard and soft delegates

[Zera]

Could anyone please explain them? I know the delegate process extremely well, but this struck me as being something new. I mostly have found interest in them because McCain only has like 388 hard delegates, and hard delegates sounds more "for sure". But anyway, anyone wanna explain them?

[Feelgood]

One group takes the little blue pill, and the other does not. :D

[nate895]

Hard delegates means they absolutely, under no circumstances, can change their vote. Also, it could mean that the McCain supporters and or others have been elected.

[soapmistress]

One group takes the little blue pill, and the other does not. :D

LOL!

[nate895]

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R.phtml

First, we have doubled our hard total, no doubt a result of the recent Alaska convention. Second, I would like to point out there are still 1,715 delegates waiting to be fought for in the hard total.

[clintontj72]

HARD TOTAL - formal allocation
The "hard count" consists of a count of the National Convention delegates as they are formally allocated to presidential contenders (or to the ranks of the "Uncommitted") under the rules governing the selection of such delegates in each state or other jurisdiction (D.C., Puerto Rico or other U.S. territories). No delegates are placed in the "hard count" column unless and until they have been so allocated. The "soft count", meanwhile, is an estimation- based on the best possible information available to "The Green Papers" at the time- as to which presidential contenders delegates (even those who are nominally "Unpledged") will support on the floor of the Convention.

The "hard count" is cumulative: that is, as each bloc of delegates from a given state or other jurisdiction is formally allocated to presidential contenders or "Uncommitted", that allocation is- in effect- "frozen" in time; the number of delegates allocated to each presidential contender or "Uncommitted" will, therefore, continue to add up as the pre-Convention process goes along. Even if a presidential contender already formally/officially allocated delegates should subsequently drop out of the nomination race and release his delegates (in which case, his delegates could conceivably support another contender or become "Uncommitted") or a formally "Uncommitted" delegate indicate his/her preference for a given presidential contender prior to the National Conventions, any delegates already allocated to a given contender (or formally "Uncommitted") will continue to be counted as allocated to that contender (or "Uncommitted") in the "hard count" of "The Green Papers"- for a change in the support for a presidential contender by (or the "uncommitted" status of) a delegate, once that delegate is formally allocated by the delegate selection procedures of a state party, does not become official until that delegate first casts a vote during the Roll Call of the States for the party's Presidential Nomination on the floor of that party's National Convention.

The Green Papers "hard count", when posted, is (in order of preference) either (a) a state's or party's official breakdown of its delegation, (b) our initial soft count, or (c) the best sources' breakdown of the delegation (even where it differs from our soft count). We will choose (c) when our initial soft count is based upon incomplete information.

SOFT PLEDGED, SOFT UNPLEDGED, SOFT TOTAL - estimated allocation
The "soft count", on the other hand, will reflect the support for each presidential contender by either Pledged or Unpledged delegates- whether formally allocated yet or not- as best can be estimated by "The Green Papers"; it could, conceivably change even day to day as presidential contenders might be forced out of the nomination race- perhaps releasing any delegates which might have already been formally allocated to them- or delegates once in the ranks of the "Uncommitted" might begin to indicate support of a given presidential contender even before the National Conventions convene this Summer! Delegates listed as "available" in the soft count, are "not yet estimated".

The differences between the two counts- "hard" and "soft"- will probably first become apparent in the differences between the first tier events in caucus/convention states and those states holding binding primaries (that is, primaries where the results of the voting itself directly affect delegate allocation). To take one early (and obvious) example, the Iowa precinct caucuses on Monday 24 January 2000 did not choose one single National Convention delegate in either major party (the first Democratic National Convention delegates were not formally allocated until early May; National Convention delegates from Iowa's GOP were not be formally allocated until a month thereafter!) but it might be possible to estimate the likely breakdown of the Iowa delegation to the major parties' National Conventions from an analysis of the voting in these Iowa caucuses. Any such estimate of the support of the delegates from Iowa to either National Convention would appear in the "soft count"- but NO Iowa delegates appeared in the "hard count" immediately after 24 January (the first delegates to appear in the "hard count" were those in each major party from New Hampshire, where the primary on Tuesday 1 February 2000 formally allocated National Convention delegates as a result of the voting in that primary).

(available) - delegates not yet allocated
"(available)" is the number of delegates yet to be allocated. For the hard total, these delegates are "not yet formally and/or officially allocated". For the soft counts, these delegates are "not currently estimated".