nate895
03-15-2008, 02:30 PM
and it is up to you to pick which one it will be.
As a note before I move on: I am sure you have seen the threads about success at conventions and caucuses.
Historical Position 1: Long term revolution: This is a similar situation to the Russians before they replaced their Czar (except for we, hopefully, won't have a communist revolution a few months after success). If this is our situation, we have many months, years, maybe even decades before we gain any sort of power that is effective on Capital Hill in Washington. If this is the situation you choose you must be prepared to fight to win in every election, including the current Presidential one, but expect to lose almost all of them for many years to come.
Historical Position 2: Short Term failed revolution/revolt: This is the worst one of the options, but it is highly possible if you don't fight every step of the way and stick together. If we are in this one, we are currently comparable to the Confederates after their victory at Chancellorsville (all these caucus wins), but after this convention coming up in September, it will be our Appomattox Court House surrender. This situation must be avoided at all costs.
Historical Position 3: Short Term/Long Term successful revolution/revolt: This is the best option, but with it, if we don't have the right attitude, comes the possibility of becoming a failed revolution. If we are in this situation, we have just turned back the British from Trenton and the upcoming convention in September will be our Yorktown. This one will require the right attitude and the largest fight, we must have the fire in our bellies. If we have wrong attitude that there is no doubt that we will win, and we have no plans should we fail, we will become a failed revolution that will need to be resurrected. I think this is the best option, and comes with it a 25% chance of success at the convention, a 10% chance of total failure, and 65% chance of long term success or failure (though the time until victory will be cut in half).
As a note before I move on: I am sure you have seen the threads about success at conventions and caucuses.
Historical Position 1: Long term revolution: This is a similar situation to the Russians before they replaced their Czar (except for we, hopefully, won't have a communist revolution a few months after success). If this is our situation, we have many months, years, maybe even decades before we gain any sort of power that is effective on Capital Hill in Washington. If this is the situation you choose you must be prepared to fight to win in every election, including the current Presidential one, but expect to lose almost all of them for many years to come.
Historical Position 2: Short Term failed revolution/revolt: This is the worst one of the options, but it is highly possible if you don't fight every step of the way and stick together. If we are in this one, we are currently comparable to the Confederates after their victory at Chancellorsville (all these caucus wins), but after this convention coming up in September, it will be our Appomattox Court House surrender. This situation must be avoided at all costs.
Historical Position 3: Short Term/Long Term successful revolution/revolt: This is the best option, but with it, if we don't have the right attitude, comes the possibility of becoming a failed revolution. If we are in this situation, we have just turned back the British from Trenton and the upcoming convention in September will be our Yorktown. This one will require the right attitude and the largest fight, we must have the fire in our bellies. If we have wrong attitude that there is no doubt that we will win, and we have no plans should we fail, we will become a failed revolution that will need to be resurrected. I think this is the best option, and comes with it a 25% chance of success at the convention, a 10% chance of total failure, and 65% chance of long term success or failure (though the time until victory will be cut in half).