How turnout in the Republican Primaries next year could give us the edge

[FreedomLover]

Historically, voter turnout is usually very low for primaries, hovering around 20% nationally, with some states going as low as 10% and others as high as 35-40%.

In my state of Virginia, voter turnout for 2000 in the Republican Primary was, among the 11 congressional districts, around 17%. Out of 3,856,388 registered voters, 666,365 people voted, in the ENTIRE state.

It should be even lower this time around, with Bush's numbers going down the drain, Dems gaining more power in the state, and overall disenchantment and non-enthusiasm with the GOP after the 06 whooping and the current lineup of lame neocons.

Now, accounting for population growth, I'd venture a guess that the turnout will be between 600,000 and 650,000 this time around.

In 2004, 26% of the people who voted in the presidential election in virginia identified as independent. Virginia has an open primary.

Now, if we can rely on Romney, Thompson (he's gettin real popular in the south), McCain (won in 2000 here), and Ghouliani to split the more mainstream, status-quo, pro-war votes to the point that no one gets above 30%, that leaves Ron Paul with the ability to take the state with around 180,000 votes, spread out in 11 congressional districts thats around 16,000 votes per district on average (some are larger than others of course)

I encourage everyone to do the math and research past primary information for their respective states, and then use this to find out where their resources and time should go to (which districts, what newspapers to put ads in, where are there more voters who can view a sign or get a pamphlet, etc)

All politics is local. Research your state, set a goal, do it.

If we get enough enthusiastic supporters, and the stars line up just right, we might be able to pull this off.

Edit: oops, Virginia's Primary is on the FOLLOWING tuesday, after National Primary Day. But, given that we might not have a clear winner by the time national primary day ends, given the field, it might not change much.

[FreedomLover]

In other words, if you are in state that has a primary on or before February 5th, this post goes out to you, as winning states on or before this date is the most important goal.

[njandrewg]

just look at Iowa Straw poll...only like 65% of the numbers showed up

[FreedomLover]

just look at Iowa Straw poll...only like 65% of the numbers showed up

Yeah, people just arn't excited this year about the GOP. And the neocon clone parade of boring candidates certainly doesn't help.

[Sematary]

lewrockwell.com figured it could take only 15,000 votes to win NH.

[McDermit]

Darn PA and our late primary. I wish the senate would have agreed to move it up. With any luck, we'd have been snowed in or something and only the diehards (RP supporters) would have gotten out.

[Larofeticus]

South Carolina Jan 19th

8 years ago there were 550k votes in the republican primary.

Projecting a 40% loss in turnout (the same as ames) estimates this primary at 350k votes.

McCain will insignificant by that time. Q3 fundraising will be the final nail in his coffin.

Romney gets single digit traction here, but will probably get a bump from iowa and or new hampshire success. 25%

Guiliani is going to fade by this time as his social views erode, and he is less likely to get bumps from iowa or new hampshire. 20%

Huckabee will probably make a little bit of progress between now and then and be around 10%

Thompson will be the man to beat in South Carolina. The less he does the better he looks to people around here, and it takes alot less work from him to get neocon nimrods to grassroot for him. He might get up as high as 45%.

I'd guess by that time we'd get up to 10% convinced, which won't seem like major support since things will have surged towards thompson by that time.

*******
The pro-war neocon vote split isn't going to last until the primaries; to believe so is wishful thinking. They'll have their man picked by then. The best way that I'd guess is splitting that vote between 3.5 people (huck is a half)

Turnout wise we could be boned one of two ways:
It's a close race between big names in which case turnout shoots up to push it one way or the other (like in 2000) and high turnout of that sort hurts us.
One man stands obviously ahead in the polls/media, turnout is lower, but that one man has a big percentage to overcome. This is what I think will happen and that man will be thompson.

Right now we've probably got 10k-20k votes for paul in SC. 3-4% range assuming lower turnout. Thompson at 45% would be around 150k votes.

*******
So what should we do?

First aim is single issue voters. Gun rights activists are easy to convince and spread the word real well. Skrew the NRA; the real authority here is GOA and they love Ron.

College students. Working on it. University of South Carolina will have an active pro ron paul student organization this upcoming semester. It would probably only be a few thousand votes statewide, but the biggest gain will be activists.

War voters are next. By that time the democrats will have hillary well assured; the we'll be making a devils advocate argument to liberals. Since SC is open primary, and the democrat will allready be crowned, why not vote Ron Paul in the other election and guarantee an anti-war president? Anti-war republicans will mostly already be convinced as long as we can get name recognition up.

The largest hurdle is foreign policy and the war. Sadly, I live in a "kill the brown people" state. 40-50% of voters are probably unreachable for only that reason. The best we'll be able to do is go for doubt. Stress the cost, and the weakness of the terrorists, and that interventionism is part of what motivates them.

[LibertyEagle]

I can't say I understand the whole delegate thing. Should a bunch of us be trying to make sure we are positioned to become one right now?

[klamath]

Voter apathy and being ignored by the media may very well be our best chance. Ron paul voters are highly motivated and will vote. As long as the media hammers that Paul is at 1 and 2% in the polls the neocons can't motivate their voters to turn out to just defeat Paul. If he wins in NH then we have big mo on our side. Media coverage will by huge if he appears to come out of nowhere to win. If any of the big name candidates win it will be "Oh hum- like we have be saying"

[jacmicwag]

Laro - good analysis on South Carolina. You guys have got your work cut out. A second or third place finish may be acceptable in your state and a practical goal to shoot for. I really believe, however, that we are underestimating the potential ground swell of support from the 17 to 25-year old bloc. Is there some way we can target and engage this group more effectively than random meetup events here and there? Maybe Ron Paul Fridays at every campus in Iowa, SC, NH and other key states. Hold them at coffee houses, pizza joints, bars, dance halls or wherever. Social events with a speaker to update RP progress and plans for the week. Maybe Ron could do a little 5-minute pitch that gets played over YouTube each week. Let everyone introduce themselves and explain why they believe in RP. Bring in some local music talent and blast out some eardrums. Make this a party - with a college RP mantra - have fun, meet people and change the world. Spread the word around campus - for a good time, check out RP Fridays. Oh, yes and somewhere in there, let's make sure everyone gets registered to vote in the Republican primary.

Yes, I know - this sounds good but how do we get started. Hey, that's what this forum is for, right? Might be a good idea for someone to write down a master plan but probably more important to just go out and do it. Once it starts happening, we can worry about organizing it and, like everything else RP, figure it out as we go. Doesn't matter how it starts or where it comes from - just has to be fun and social. Ron Paul Fridays - I like the way it sounds. Hmmm, I wonder if that freedom/stuff the establishment message will play with this audience. Any takers?