Several reasons why McCain won't be the next president (logical reasons)

[Jeremy]

This thread is somewhat of a response that implied McCain will win in November because one poll said 53% of Americans now think we are succeeding in Iraq.

1) That is not the same as "should we leave or stay in Iraq"
2) Hillary and especially Obama have a much larger following than McCain
3) Most of the country is anti-war... this never changed.
4) Anti-war-in-Iraq people are currently anti-Republican thanks to Bush (exceptions though... like us)
5) People say McCain is Bush's third term. Didn't Bush have 19% approval recently?
6) The entire Republican party is divided. Many will not vote for McCain (even Rush was talking about this. He was saying they have a problem is he's doing so bad in the primary when he has basically nothing stopping him at this point).
7) Once there is a Democrat winner, the entire party, including the loser will be behind one person. Even split they are possibly doing better than McCain.
8) Even more... if Obama and Clinton are on the same ticket (which is very likely), there's no stopping them.
10) The Republican party is shrinking. It would be even smaller if it wasn't for RP, but what the McCain-optimistics don't know is that we won't be voting for him (or the Democrat though).
11) Think about your daily life. How many times does the average person talk trash about Bush or McCain? Now what about Clinton and Obama? Obama supporters will talk trash about Clinton, but that will change when there is a winner.
12) WAAAAY more voter turnout for dems this time. And sure, there were elections where the same thing happened, yet the dems didn't win. But this is a totally different situation and the war is going to be the #1 thing for voters. (and once again, not all Republicans will vote McCain)
13) Young voters who don't understand politics were scared away from the Republican party thanks to Bush. They are now Democrats.
14) Most independents are anti-war.
15) Apathetics don't think of themselves as racist/sexist when they vote for somebody just because they aren't white or aren't male (which will help them a lot... people want to see the first nonwhite or first women president just because they can... that has already been obvious).

I'm sure this will be much more clear once either Hillary or Obama win.

[uncollapse]

But the public disagrees with what you said. Most Recent election polls tell us that McCain is currently favored to win the election. High democratic turnout rate means nothing. The last two election where democratic had record high turnout, they lose to republican during general election. McCain destiny is tied to iraq war. It is unknown how the iraq situation will progress in the next few months. It is folly to just discount the high likelihood of a McCain presidency.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/john_mccain_match_ups/election_2008_mccain_vs_clinton_and_obama

[dannno]

I agree.

McCain will not win.

Diebold could do it for him, though..

But I think Diebold will vote for Hillary.

[Jeremy]

But the public disagrees with what you said. Most Recent election polls tell us that McCain is currently favored to win the election. High democratic turnout rate means nothing. The last two election where democratic had record high turnout, they lose to republican during general election. McCain destiny is tied to iraq war. It is unknown how the iraq situation will progress in the next few months. It is folly to just discount the high likelihood of a McCain presidency.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/john_mccain_match_ups/election_2008_mccain_vs_clinton_and_obama

#7 and #8 tell you why a "divided party" will win. In reality, they aren't divided. They support the same issues and treat each other with respect most of the time. You don't see this for the Republicans. I think we can also assume that at least 5-10% of the people who voted in the primary will not vote for McCain. I think it's also safe to say that the majority of the independents will pick Hillary or Obama over McCain. Actually, that just reminded me of another thing to add to the list (first non white / male for pres)

[qh4dotcom]

But the public disagrees with what you said. Most Recent election polls tell us that McCain is currently favored to win the election. High democratic turnout rate means nothing. The last two election where democratic had record high turnout, they lose to republican during general election. McCain destiny is tied to iraq war. It is unknown how the iraq situation will progress in the next few months. It is folly to just discount the high likelihood of a McCain presidency.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/john_mccain_match_ups/election_2008_mccain_vs_clinton_and_obama

What counts are electoral votes...not polls or the popular vote

McCain may get say 80% of the vote in a state and that boosts his poll numbers...but
he won't get anymore electoral votes than what the state offers.

Democrats were leading in electoral votes the last time I checked.



5) People say McCain is Bush's third term. Didn't Bush have 19% approval recently?


He approval rating hasn't dipped below 35% lately

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/president_bush_job_approval

[uncollapse]

#7 and #8 tell you why a "divided party" will win. In reality, they aren't divided. They support the same issues and treat each other with respect most of the time. You don't see this for the Republicans. I think we can also assume that at least 5-10% of the people who voted in the primary will not vote for McCain. I think it's also safe to say that the majority of the independents will pick Hillary or Obama over McCain. Actually, that just reminded me of another thing to add to the list (first non white / male for pres)

Let me repeat again. The latest public opinion polls tells us that McCain is favored to win. Read. PUBLIC OPINION. There is a clear distinction between your PERSONAL opinion and a PUBLIC opinion. As i mentioned earlier, the public are lured into believing that McCain can win the iraq war for US. Who would want to lose a war when there is a strong case for winning. This is the propaganda that the republican party is modeling now. Dismiss McCain at your own risk.

[Jeremy]

What counts are electoral votes...not polls

McCain may get say 80% of the vote in a state and that boosts his poll numbers...but
he won't get anymore electoral votes than what the state offers.



He approval rating hasn't dipped below 35% lately

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/president_bush_job_approval

About a month ago I remember there were polls saying it went to 19. Either way, 35 is still an awful approval rating.

[Jeremy]

Let me repeat again. The latest public opinion polls tells us that McCain is favored to win. Read. PUBLIC OPINION. There is a clear distinction between your PERSONAL opinion and a PUBLIC opinion. As i mentioned earlier, the public are lured into believing that McCain can win the iraq war for US. Who would want to lose a war when there is a strong case for winning. This is the propaganda that the republican party is modeling now. Dismiss McCain at your own risk.

You're wrong. And this has nothing to do with personal opinion. I even put that in parenthesis in the title. OF course McCain will be ahead. There are two frontrunners for the dems. Did you ignore everything I said? The entire party will be behind one person. And yes, even though Obama people say they won't vote for Hillary, this is not true. I guarantee you they will if they had to. They hate McCain more, but their goal isn't to beat McCain at this time. Also, Obama would endorse Hillary and probably even be her VP. (this could happen vice versa obviously). Hillary and Obama on the same ticket? I doubt McCain can get more than 30% of the vote.

[uncollapse]

About a month ago I remember there were polls saying it went to 19. Either way, 35 is still an awful approval rating.

The public can tell Bush from McCain. Bush is Bush. McCain is McCain. McCain voters base is independents. Bush base is republicans.

[Jeremy]

When the dems pick a winner, I know you'll be proven wrong with the polls. Just you wait. In fact, you should PM me :)

And the dems have a lot more to attack mccain than mccain has to attack them with... mccain is also an awful speaker and does not influence anyone. Hillary and Obama influence their supporters.

[hawks4ronpaul]

The experts told me that McCain collapsed:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/mccains_collapse.php




http://hawks4ronpaul.blogspot.com/

[hawks4ronpaul]

one poll said 53% of Americans now think we are succeeding

Does that mean we can withdraw?

If we can't withdraw, we failed.


http://hawks4ronpaul.blogspot.com/

[hawks4ronpaul]

The GOP is broke, last I heard.

Obama and Hillary have been raking in cash.


http://hawks4ronpaul.blogspot.com/

[uncollapse]

The experts told me that McCain collapsed:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/mccains_collapse.php




http://hawks4ronpaul.blogspot.com/

that was 2007 right?

[uncollapse]

The GOP is broke, last I heard.

Obama and Hillary have been raking in cash.


http://hawks4ronpaul.blogspot.com/

Where you get this? GOP has always been the powerful fund raiser. See this. It seems more like Democratic Party is broke.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/money/gop.html

[uncollapse]

When the dems pick a winner, I know you'll be proven wrong with the polls. Just you wait. In fact, you should PM me :)

And the dems have a lot more to attack mccain than mccain has to attack them with... mccain is also an awful speaker and does not influence anyone. Hillary and Obama influence their supporters.

As i said earlier, McCain's destiny is tied to the iraq war. The GOP is now engineering the propaganda to win the public mind that they are succeeding in iraq. At a timeliness manner, the GOP will release to public the news and new statistics that the iraq war is winning.

[Jeremy]

Where you get this? GOP has always been the powerful fund raiser. See this. It seems more like Democratic Party is broke.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/money/gop.html
Why are you looking at current party money?

When the race for president, dem vs mccain comes, Dems will destroy McCain in fund raising as they already do now in primary race. They have the entire party to back them up then and... I don't know anyone who has been "inspired" by John McCain. Many Republicans are not happy with the winner, McCain, and they won't donate.

[uncollapse]

Why are you looking at current party money?

When the race for president, dem vs mccain comes, Dems will destroy McCain in fund raising as they already do now in primary race. They have the entire party to back them up then and... I don't know anyone who has been "inspired" by John McCain. Many Republicans are not happy with the winner, McCain, and they won't donate.

McCain appeal is to the independents and cross party voters. Bush, who has >70% approval rating with republicans will help McCain rally support among republicans. And yes, go ask your friends who support McCain, they will tell you they are inspired by him becasue he is a war hero. McCain, the war hero. This is Public perception. Tell me who will not be inspired by a war hero. McCain the straight talker, the honest politician. Tell me who will not be inspired. It all boils down to public perception. The war is key. I cannot emphasize this more. McCain campaign recently has make public they are going to make iraq war the foremost issue of their campaign. you are seriously discounting McCain.

[uncollapse]

Why are you looking at current party money?

When the race for president, dem vs mccain comes, Dems will destroy McCain in fund raising as they already do now in primary race. They have the entire party to back them up then and... I don't know anyone who has been "inspired" by John McCain. Many Republicans are not happy with the winner, McCain, and they won't donate.

BTW, do you not aware Bush ability in raising money? He had promised McCain that he will help him raised the money. But at the end of the day, both party would prob be restricted by the FEC rules (McCain bills again) on spending limits.

[Jeremy]

You're talking about possible fundraising that might happen

I'm talking about fundraising that has already happened and will continue.

[uncollapse]

You're talking about possible fundraising that might happen

I'm talking about fundraising that has already happened and will continue.

If you talking abt current numbers, the Republican Party has 10 times more money than Democratic Party.

If you talking abt who can raise more money, GOP has always been capable of raising more money then democrat during GE.

[Jeremy]

I'm talking about the candidates because they will determine who donates what once things get going

[justinc.1089]

Remember how back when Kerry ran his time in the military was actually used against him?

I have a very, very, very strong feeling the same thing is going to happen to McCain. The power people want Clinton in, and the perfect way to completely destroy McCain is to tear apart his war hero reputation. If people start to question the validity of his heroism in the military then he will be an extremely weak candidate, just like Kerry was.

However, McCain in the public's opinion, and probably my opinion too lol, is Bush and more war in Iraq, and thats not going to win this election. Even the republicans don't want him.

Its really too bad Ron Paul doesn't want to run on a third party because if there has ever been a time in the entire history of America when a third party had a real shot at winning, its right now with him running.

[uncollapse]

Remember how back when Kerry ran his time in the military was actually used against him?

I have a very, very, very strong feeling the same thing is going to happen to McCain. The power people want Clinton in, and the perfect way to completely destroy McCain is to tear apart his war hero reputation. If people start to question the validity of his heroism in the military then he will be an extremely weak candidate, just like Kerry was.

However, McCain in the public's opinion, and probably my opinion too lol, is Bush and more war in Iraq, and thats not going to win this election. Even the republicans don't want him.

Its really too bad Ron Paul doesn't want to run on a third party because if there has ever been a time in the entire history of America when a third party had a real shot at winning, its right now with him running.

Yes. McCain war hero image is where the democrat needs to attack. But it is a sensitive spot.. the public might find it repungent to attack a POW's wartime credentials.

On the iraq War, you are not quite right. The public at large feels the war is wrong. But the public at large wants to win if there is a strong indication that they can win this war. It is a propaganda game. GOP is strategizing this now. McCain chance of winning is not as slim as what you people make it seems to be.

[Jeremy]

Your information is coming from a single poll that said 3% more of the people polled thought we were succeeding in Iraq compared to before.

[uncollapse]

Your information is coming from a single poll that said 3% more of the people polled thought we were succeeding in Iraq compared to before.

Here you go, dozens of different polls. Open your eyes and see how EVERY poll shows how the public opinion on the war has improved over the span of few months. Bottom line. They disagree with the war, believe that progress is being made and wants to win if they can win.

http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm

The GOP is not stupid. They have the propaganda tool at their disposal. The public mindset is being moulded with each passing day.

[Jeremy]

OK, show me something that says McCain is in the lead after the dems have their candidate and then we'll see

but that wont happen =o

edit: actually, you really cant show me something that says hes in the lead now

[uncollapse]

OK, show me something that says McCain is in the lead after the dems have their candidate and then we'll see

but that wont happen =o

edit: actually, you really cant show me something that says hes in the lead now

Well, i have shown you already.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/john_mccain_match_ups/election_2008_mccain_vs_clinton_and_obama

But you discounted it by saying that Clinton and Obama numbers should be additive. Such hypothesis is pure conjecture. Another poll done in Texas,
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/02/21/cnn-poll-texans-leaning-toward-mccain-in-november/
here McCain won by a huge margin. McCain's war hero/POW image is extremely sellable. people here are seriously underestimating him. A dose of reality is needed.

[Carole]

I "predict" Republican turnout will be low and many will not vote for McInSane. Dems are turning out in numbers twice that of Repubs in primaries.

[ChickenHawk]

As bad as it looks for McCain I think it looks pretty bad for Democrats as well. The Dems aught to be running away with this election but they have a long storied tradition of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The problem is that the the grass roots of the Democratic party is much, much further from the mainstream of America than the grass roots of the GOP. I think that always tends to hurt the Democrats in a national election. The only Democrats to win the presidency in the last 40 years ran hard to the center. Also, there is a very real possibility of a complete meltdown at the Democratic convention.