RonPaulFanInGA
03-04-2008, 06:02 PM
http://www.reason.com/blog/show/125217
This is the last truly huge primary day of the year, with four states voting for presidential nominees and two of them hosting hotly-contested House primaries: Dennis Kucinich's race in Ohio and Ron Paul's race in Texas. Both of them will win. Sources in Paul's campaign were tight-lipped, but they expect to know they've won within 30 minutes of the polls closing. Also, they expect Republican turnout to be high despite GOP voters dabbling in the Clinton-Obama race. What about Chris Peden's boast that the GOP committee in Aransas County has endorsed him? "Six precinct chairs in the county that makes up one of the smallest parts of our district? No, we're not worried about that." On the local sherrifs who endorsed Peden? "They've endorsed against Dr. Paul in the past, and Republican voters aren't moved by their sherrifs or by party officials they've never heard of." Bottom line: Eric Dondero probably doesn't need to update his resume for a new Congressional job tomorrow.
What should you be reading? The estimate John LaBeaume has electoral secrets up at his blog. Mark Halperin is posting exit poll data as it comes in, and old exit polls are up at CNN's archived 2004 site. (They're useful for gauging if independent or black or Hispanic or etc. turnout is up or down this year.) CNN's 2008 site has the detailed exits. Numbers for the Texas-14 House race are here. For reference, here's how Paul did in 2006, when he won 78 percent of his primary vote.
Brazoria County - 8,829 votes (80.5 percent)
Galveston County - 3,588 (75.9 percent - this is where Peden's city of Friendswood is located)
Victoria County - 3,279 votes (81.4 percent)
Wharton County - 1,962 votes (74.1 percent)
Fort Bend County - 1,945 (79.1 percent)
Chambers County - 1,708 (74.3 percent)
Aransas County - 1,658 votes (69.2 percent)
Matagorda County - 548 votes (74.8 percent)
Calhoun County - 355 votes (81.6 percent)
Jackson County - 214 votes (63.7 percent)
Here's what to watch tonight and when.
Other races: In the 14th district, Ron Paul will easily put away Councilman Chris Peden. A 15-20 point margin.
This is the last truly huge primary day of the year, with four states voting for presidential nominees and two of them hosting hotly-contested House primaries: Dennis Kucinich's race in Ohio and Ron Paul's race in Texas. Both of them will win. Sources in Paul's campaign were tight-lipped, but they expect to know they've won within 30 minutes of the polls closing. Also, they expect Republican turnout to be high despite GOP voters dabbling in the Clinton-Obama race. What about Chris Peden's boast that the GOP committee in Aransas County has endorsed him? "Six precinct chairs in the county that makes up one of the smallest parts of our district? No, we're not worried about that." On the local sherrifs who endorsed Peden? "They've endorsed against Dr. Paul in the past, and Republican voters aren't moved by their sherrifs or by party officials they've never heard of." Bottom line: Eric Dondero probably doesn't need to update his resume for a new Congressional job tomorrow.
What should you be reading? The estimate John LaBeaume has electoral secrets up at his blog. Mark Halperin is posting exit poll data as it comes in, and old exit polls are up at CNN's archived 2004 site. (They're useful for gauging if independent or black or Hispanic or etc. turnout is up or down this year.) CNN's 2008 site has the detailed exits. Numbers for the Texas-14 House race are here. For reference, here's how Paul did in 2006, when he won 78 percent of his primary vote.
Brazoria County - 8,829 votes (80.5 percent)
Galveston County - 3,588 (75.9 percent - this is where Peden's city of Friendswood is located)
Victoria County - 3,279 votes (81.4 percent)
Wharton County - 1,962 votes (74.1 percent)
Fort Bend County - 1,945 (79.1 percent)
Chambers County - 1,708 (74.3 percent)
Aransas County - 1,658 votes (69.2 percent)
Matagorda County - 548 votes (74.8 percent)
Calhoun County - 355 votes (81.6 percent)
Jackson County - 214 votes (63.7 percent)
Here's what to watch tonight and when.
Other races: In the 14th district, Ron Paul will easily put away Councilman Chris Peden. A 15-20 point margin.