Paul at 4% and 3% in TX and OH respectively... oops

[blaumittwoch]

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1459

McCain is WAAAAAAY ahead in both polls. He's going to be the nominee on Tuesday, guaranteed.

Whoops.

[newyearsrevolution08]

look at miss obvious here lol. You should tell me what the winning lottery tickets will be.

[ronpaulhawaii]

No-one will be the nominee till after the convention.

The OP is obviously ignorant of political processes and seems to think the media decides on the direction of our country. The old guard, a dinosaur in an age of climate change...

[qh4dotcom]

This is more reliable...an average of the major pollsters

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

[jjank11]

How is it that polls continually show that people believe we are going the wrong direction, that Bush approval rating is really low, that congress is not doing a good job, and that we need change. Then we see candidates like McCain, Clinton and Obama as the leaders.

This just goes to show either A. The complete stupidity of the people. B. The bias in Polls. C. The complete stupidity of the news. or D. All of the above!!

All of us Ron Paul people want REAL change, not the "change" the other candidates talk about, their change is completely fictitious. I see a good percentage of Paulites actually going out and doing things and trying to produce the REAL change.

There is just so much that has derailed our campaign. Most of it due to good practices which seem to have no place in society anymore. We have become such sheeple to material things, to mainstream media and to powerful government. The sheeple just do not thing anymore. Our country is now completely reactive and not proactive. We are a bunch of sheeple that jump on bandwagons, only in order to better your place in society. It has been all about ME ME ME. These are the people that are shrouded in their fictitious freedoms.

How can it be that the only candidate that truly cares about THE PEOPLE gets so little attention.

I still think Ron Paul can win but what we all need to do is look at ourselves in the mirror and start making our selves better people and begin to get more active in public life so we can make a REAL change. Start planning a run for congress now, or a run for Senate or for different state offices. This is where the real revolution is going to happen, as Ron Paul has stated so many times. Get involved. Ron Paul has cured my apathy like so many others and i just hope that the neighbors i look to today will also get theirs cured also by this message of freedom.

[Bradley in DC]

No-one will be the nominee till after the convention.

Not to quibble, but actually "during" not "after" the convention. :p

[Paulitician]

LOL... such small numbers :D

[Liberté]

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1459

McCain is WAAAAAAY ahead in both polls. He's going to be the nominee on Tuesday, guaranteed.

Whoops.

Real Clear is the Best place to get poll info:
As of 28/2008 (I still predict at least 10 to 14%)

RCP Average McCain 54.4, Huckabee 33.6, Ron Paul 7 McCain +20.8
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 54 36 4 McCain +18.0
WFAA/Belo Tracking 56 31 6 McCain +25.0
Rasmussen 54 34 7 McCain +20.0
PPP (D) 52 36 9 McCain +16.0
CNN 56 31 9 McCain +25.0

[JR from Texas]

the only important number is that mccain is polling above 50% in each one.

If he gets above 50%, he gets all the delegates.

[RP4EVER]

Another factor to take in is how many people were polled

[defe07]

Is there any news of what's going on in all of the TX Congressional Districts? I hope that McCain doesn't win 50% but remember Paul needs to get 20% statewide to get delegates. All I hope is that these Republican fools that think that McCain has won the thing cross-vote for Hillary and then leave the field wide open. However, I'm sure that Paul could win his district, since he has to face Peden in the Congressional primary, and I'm sure that he can do well outside his district as well (remember, if a candidate gets 50% or more in a CD, that candidate gets all 3 of that disrict's delegates; if not, if 2 candidates get at least 15% I believe, the winning candidate gets 2 delegates and the runner-up 1; and finally if 3 candidates get at least 15%, the top 3 candidates get 1 delegate each). Come on Texans, vote for your native son!

[McCraK]

Im a little confused.. Is there going to be a convention no matter what or does it depend of whether mccain gets the 1161 or whatever it is? Ive heard 10 different things so im just trying to clear this up.

[devil21]

Im a little confused.. Is there going to be a convention no matter what or does it depend of whether mccain gets the 1161 or whatever it is? Ive heard 10 different things so im just trying to clear this up.

There will be a convention no matter what. Either it will be substantive (brokered convention) or it will be celebratory (coronating McCain after guaranteed 1191 delegates).

[FrankB]

Another factor to take in is how many people were polled

And another factor to consider is the amount of election fraud which will be occurring thanks to Diebold et al...

[seapilot]

Another factor to take in is how many people were polled

It was rumored to be a large non random sample of 6. The governor of Texas, his wife and secretary, and 3 of George W Bushies Ranch hands. The ranch hands were split between Huckaboy and Ron Paul, but wouldnt give thier S.S. numbers in the interview because they claimed in the poll they didnt have any.

The governor answered for his wife and secretary as usual, and he would vote for the Left Leaning Senator that promised him a Vp spot once he got lucky with a coed lobbyist for the proposed Nafta Highway.

[RP4EVER]

LOL......thats what I assumed but it didnt hurt to check....same as it always is

[Akus]

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1459

McCain is WAAAAAAY ahead in both polls. He's going to be the nominee on Tuesday, guaranteed.

Whoops.

doesn't matter, delegates is where it's at. Everyone who is not having an open heart surgery on Tuesday night of 03/04/08 should be at the precinct convention and nominating him/herself to be a delegate.

[Marty York]

Thanks for hanging in there, guys/gals.

[texasbelle]

doesn't matter, delegates is where it's at. Everyone who is not having an open heart surgery on Tuesday night of 03/04/08 should be at the precinct convention and nominating him/herself to be a delegate.

worth repeating!!

[libertarian4321]

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1459

McCain is WAAAAAAY ahead in both polls. He's going to be the nominee on Tuesday, guaranteed.

Whoops.

Yup, McCain will probably get the Rep. nomination.

However, McCain is a very weak candidate.

I'm sure President Obama will be glad McCain won the Republican nomination...

[devil21]

doesn't matter, delegates is where it's at. Everyone who is not having an open heart surgery on Tuesday night of 03/04/08 should be at the precinct convention and nominating him/herself to be a delegate.

But don't call yourself a Paul supporter unless you must!!! Keep your candidate choice close to the vest. Other states have shown not to be open about it.

[blaumittwoch]

Even RCP predicts McCain with over 50% of the vote. There's absolutely no way anyone can go from 7% in a poll from a week before voting to winning a whole state. McCain has 1014 delegates (from RCP), and if he wins both states he's it. There's no way you can think Paul has a chance at the nomination anymore, and if you do you're already in stage 1 in the 5 grief processes, denial. Not even Huck & Chuck can give the race a roundhouse kick to a brokered convention.

And stop it with the voter fraud. Think for once.

[Fox McCloud]

the only important number is that mccain is polling above 50% in each one.

If he gets above 50%, he gets all the delegates.

not true--he just needs 1 vote more than the 2nd highest vote count to win ALL the delegates in either State.

Either way, statistically speaking, yes, it will be over tomorrow, as McCain will have over 50% of the delegates (and this is only counting Texas and Ohio....there's Vermont and Rhode Island as well...in which he's guarantee to get all the delegates in one, and at least half in the other). Even if you toss out all the "unpledged" delegates, he'd still have over 50% by the end of tomorrow.

Unless he loses most of his delegates before or during the RNC (or they're somehow convinced to go for another candidate), which is highly unlikely IMHO, then he'll have it "in the hole".

Oh well, at least it might prompt Huckabee to drop out, leaving it down to Ron Paul and McCain (which might allow us to grab a few more delegates than usual).

I just hope that Huckabee does drop out after tomorrow though.

[oldworldorder]

And stop it with the voter fraud. Think for once.

That's hilarious - I have no illusion of RP even getting 10%, people being stupid is enough at this stage, no election fraud required. But if you think there is not, has not been or won't continue to be election fraud you need to do a little thinking and research - it's verified fact many times over.

[ronpaulhawaii]

ISTM- One thing that matters a LOT, whether or not it goes brokered, is getting delegates onto the floor to influence the direction of the party...

[defe07]

not true--he just needs 1 vote more than the 2nd highest vote count to win ALL the delegates in either State.

Either way, statistically speaking, yes, it will be over tomorrow, as McCain will have over 50% of the delegates (and this is only counting Texas and Ohio....there's Vermont and Rhode Island as well...in which he's guarantee to get all the delegates in one, and at least half in the other). Even if you toss out all the "unpledged" delegates, he'd still have over 50% by the end of tomorrow.

Unless he loses most of his delegates before or during the RNC (or they're somehow convinced to go for another candidate), which is highly unlikely IMHO, then he'll have it "in the hole".

Oh well, at least it might prompt Huckabee to drop out, leaving it down to Ron Paul and McCain (which might allow us to grab a few more delegates than usual).

I just hope that Huckabee does drop out after tomorrow though.

Just want to correct you about TX. While OH does allocate its delegates to the statewide winner, the system in TX is two-tiered. From thegreenpapers.com:

137 of 140 of Texas's delegates to the Republican National Convention are allocated to presidential contenders in today's Texas Presidential Primary.

96 district delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 32 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates. These delegates are allocated to the presidential contenders as follows:
If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (more than 50%), that candidate is allocated all 3 of the district's delegates. [General Rules for All Conventions and Meetings Section 8.a.]
If no candidate receives a majority of the vote and at least 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, the candidate with the most votes (plurality) receives 2 delegates and the candidate receiving the next highest number of votes receives 1 delegate. However, if the plurality winner receives more than 20% and the number of votes received by the next highest candidate is less than 20%, the plurality winner receives 3 delegates. [Section 8.b.]
If no candidate receives 20% of the vote then the top 3 vote getters each receive 1 delegate. [Section 8.c.]
41 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 31 bonus delegates) are to be allocated to the presidential contenders based on the primary results statewide. These delegates are allocated to the presidential contenders as follows:
If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (more than 50%), that candidate is allocated all 41 at-large delegates. [Section 9.a.]
If no candidate receives a majority of the vote and at least 1 candidate receives 20% or more of the vote, the 41 at-large delegates are allocated proportionally among those candidates receiving 20% or more of the vote. Rounding rules: Beginning with the candidate receiving the largest number of votes, round any fraction to the next whole number of delegates. Continue this process with the next highest vote getter and repeat until all the delegates are allocated. [Section 9.b.]
If no candidate receives 20% of the vote, allocate the 41 at-large delegates proportionally. Rounding rules: Beginning with the candidate receiving the largest number of votes, round any fraction to the next whole number of delegates. Continue this process with the next highest vote getter and repeat until all the delegates are allocated. [Section 9.c.]

[wealeat]

not true--he just needs 1 vote more than the 2nd highest vote count to win ALL the delegates in either State.

Either way, statistically speaking, yes, it will be over tomorrow, as McCain will have over 50% of the delegates (and this is only counting Texas and Ohio....there's Vermont and Rhode Island as well...in which he's guarantee to get all the delegates in one, and at least half in the other). Even if you toss out all the "unpledged" delegates, he'd still have over 50% by the end of tomorrow.

Unless he loses most of his delegates before or during the RNC (or they're somehow convinced to go for another candidate), which is highly unlikely IMHO, then he'll have it "in the hole".

Oh well, at least it might prompt Huckabee to drop out, leaving it down to Ron Paul and McCain (which might allow us to grab a few more delegates than usual).

I just hope that Huckabee does drop out after tomorrow though.

not true, see above.

[Syragop45]

I hate that so many sheeple are willing to allow the media to pick their candidates.

The three frontrunners are all liberal special interest group loving machines with plans that will destroy the already weak economy. The only difference is their party line stance on Iraq and amount of socialist programs they plan to implement.