jahazii
02-25-2008, 02:10 PM
STICKY? Thats right folks we have the chance to introduce 123 Constitution lovers fighting for our liberties to congress. This is a chance to have control of 23% of the entire Legislative branch of our government.
HOUSE SEATS Lets start digging dirt on all of them, and find out the ones who love liberty if we can. Help me highlight ones who stick out especially easy to beat or just rotten. I highlighted a few need your help also.
89 House Seats Will Be Contested in 2008
CANDIDATES RUNNING UNOPPOSED (32 R, 29 D)
Dan Flynn (R)
Bryan Hughes (R)
Leo Berman (R) -- faced major opposition in 06
Tommy Merritt (R) -- a surprise that he's unopposed; Craddick/Leininger tried to take him out in 06
Jim Pitts (R) -- another surprise; he's a potential Craddick rival for speaker
Lois Kolkhorst (R)
Fred Brown (R)
Rob Eissler (R)
Brandon Creighton (R)
Allan Ritter (D) -- WD-40 who escaped opposition
Joe Deshotel (D) -- former Craddick D
Craig Eiland (D)
Larry Taylor (R)
Dennis Bonnen (R) -- environmentalists' criticism only helps him in Dow country
Geanie Morrison (R)
Ryan Guillen (D) -- Craddick D
Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles (D)
Eddie Lucio III (D)
Armando Martinez (D)
Richard Raymond (D)
Edmund Kuempel (R)--former Craddick rival for speaker
Eddie Rodriguez (D)
Harvey Hildenbran (R)
Jimmie Don Aycock (R)
Jim Dunnam (D) -- Democratic leader runs unopposed
Burt Solomons (R) -- possible speaker candidate
Brian McCall (R) -- another speaker candidate; a Plano prosecutor opted not to run
Rick Hardcastle (R)
David Farabee (D) -- along with Ritter, he's one of two WD-40 to escape opposition
Ken Paxton (R)
Susan King (R) -- push poll in her district did not lead to an opponent
Drew Darby (R)
Norma Chavez (D) -- estranged Craddick D
Joe Pickett (D)
Tracy King (D) -- Craddick D
Carl Isett (R)
David Swinford (D)
Warren Chisum (R)
Jodie Laubenberg (R)
Diane Patrick (R)
Marc Veasy (D)
Terri Hodge (D) -- indicted for bribery, fraud, and conspiracy, but no opponent
Rafael Anchia (D)
Helen Giddings (D) -- Craddick D
Barbara Mallory Caraway (D)
Will Hartnett (R)
Martinez Fischer (D)
Roland Gutierrez (D) -- running unopposed for Puente's seat
Ruth McClendon D) -- Craddick D
Joe Strauss (R)
Mike Villareal (D)
Jose Menendez (D)
Joaquin Castro (D)
Wayne Smith (R)
Alma Allen (D)
Bill Callegari (R)
Beverly Woolley (R)
Scott Hochberg (D) -- frequently challenged by Rs in previous years, but not this time
Sylvester Turner (D) -- the quintessential Craddick D
Harold Dutton (D) -- Craddick D
INCUMBENTS FACING PRIMARY ELECTIONS ONLY (10 D, 8 R)
There aren't a lot of races in this group, but a high percentage of them involve players in the speaker's race, including five battles involving current (or, in the case of Al Edwards, former) Craddick Ds. These are crucial races in the continuing battle over Craddick's reelection as speaker.
Byron Cook (R) -- potential speaker candidate faces Bobby Vickery, a little known opponent from Frost, which is appropriate because it will be the proverbial cold day in hell if he wins.
* Update 2/6. Nothing under Vickery's name in the Ethics Commission's files.
Charlie Howard (R) -- Paula Stansell, a precinct chair and civic leader, is potentially a strong opponent.
* Update 1/16: Stansell loaned her campaign $60,000 but received little in the way of contributions. Howard's report is not yet online.
* Update 1/22: Howard has a hefty $255,000 cash on hand.
* Update 1/29: Kyle Janek's decision to delay his resignation from the Senate until June raises some intriguing possibilities -- and quandaries -- for Howard. The Quorum Report speculates that the special election for Janek's Senate seat will not occur until the day of the general election in November. If Howard wins the primary for his House seat, could he step aside as the Republican nominee, allowing the local precinct chairs to pick a replacement, and then run for the Senate? This is a possibility that could become an issue in Howard's primary race.
Kino Flores (D) -- Craddick D faces Sandra Rodriguez, former president of the local Democratic Women's Political Caucus and a former school board member (Pharr-San Juan-Alamo).
* Update 12/17: Flores is an entrenched, hard-campaigning incumbent from a prominent political family in the western part of Hidalgo County. His father is mayor of Sullivan City. Rodriguez grew up in Mission. Her husband, Fernando Mancias, is a former district judge. Rodriguez's consultant, James Aldrete, managed Carlos Uresti's upset victory over Frank Madla in 06. The Rodriguez camp is using Flores' seven votes against CHIP (ranging from budget cuts to expansion of the program) as a major issue in the campaign. Annie's List, a Democratic fundraising organization named for Annie Webb Blanton, the first woman elected to statewide office in Texas (Superintendent of Public Instruction, 1918) is helping Rodriguez, who will need to buy TV time to offset Flores' warchest -- his report shows $266,000 spent so far and $78,000 cash on hand -- and his old-style campaign methods, like providing turkeys to area churches and sending flowers to rosaries. This is a real race.
* Update 2/5: Flores received a %50,000 donation on 1/11 from a recently activated PAC whose major donor so far is Tom Craddick, to the tune of $250,000. Rodriguez has only $32,000 cash on hand at the thirty-day mark.
Rene Oliveira (D) -- challenger John "Roca" Shergold, a Brownsville attorney, says the late Fort Worth legislator Doyle Willis was his political mentor. I shouldn't speak ill of the dead, and Willis was a World War II hero, but his derisive nickname of "Oily Doyley" is too good not to mention.
* Update 1/18: Shergold has attacked Oliveira for accepting $1,000 worth of Spurs' tickets from TXU. He also criticized Oliveira for voting against a proposal requiring disclosure when an insurance company opens a car repair shop.
Aaron Pena (D) -- Craddick D faces a challenge by Eddie Rodriguez, a civil engineer and chairman of two hospital boards.
* Update 1/16: Saenz was supposed to be a tough opponent for Pena, but he was cited for DUI before the filing deadline and was a no-show at a major Democratic forum, sending his wife to represent him.
* Update 1/17: D analysts say the only way to beat Pena is from the left, and Saenz, a chamber of commerce type, is not the sort to be comfortable with campaigning from that direction.
* Update 1/22: I just got back from a trip to the Valley, and I couldn't find anybody who thinks Pena has any problems.
* Update 1/31: Saenz serves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Edinburg Regional Medical Center and Edinburg Children’s Hospital, but the Texas Hospital Association endorsed Pena. This is not a renunciation of Saenz but rather an instance of the friendly incumbent rule at work.
* Lobby Talk 2/1: Some lobbyists think this is a real race. La Joya mayor Billy Leo, a longtime power broker on the west side of Hidalgo County, is supporting Saenz.
* Update 2/3: Saenz is attacking Pena for missing a vote on the Voter ID bill, which passed the House by a single vote. From Saenz's Web site: "Last year, my opponent Aaron Pena took a walk when his Republican allies in Austin passed a Voter I.D. bill by a single vote."
* Update 2/4: Pena's blog reports that the Criminal Jurisprudence committee, which he chairs, met in Valley to address the problem of drunk driving. Not coincidentally, DUI is an offense for which his primary opponent was recently cited.
* Update 2/5: Pena received a %50,000 contribution on 1/11 from a recently activated PAC whose major donor so far is Tom Craddick, to the tune of $250,000.
Juan Escobar (D) -- His opponent, Tara Rios Ybarra, a dentist who practices in Brownsville but serves as an alderman for South Padre Island, has been running for five months. She is a very attractive candidate, in every sense of the word.
* Update: I wrote on 1/14 that the Republicans believe they have a strong candidate here. Sort of a Freudian slip: Ybarra is running as a Democrat, but Ds believe she is Republican who is backed by Texans for Lawsuit Reform. Word in the lobby is that the Hispanic Caucus regards this as a must-support-Escobar race. Question is: Will Republicans cross over to vote for Ybarra? If the GOP's presidential race is still up in the air, crossover turnout will be greatly reduced. Hutchison beat Radnofsky here, 55-45, while losing most of the other South Texas districts.
* Update 1/22: I drove around Harlingen today looking at political signs. Escobar identifies himself as a Democrat. Some may find it significant that Ybarra does not do so. Her signs simply say, "A New Voice -- for a Change."
* Update 1/29. The shadow of strongarm politics hangs over this race. Last week, Trey Martinez Fischer sent out a letter to members of the House Democratic caucus with a threatening tone. It has been widely circulated. Here are the two key paragraphs:
"This year marks the first time I have ever seen a lobbyist go out of his way to challenge a sitting member, especially one who has done a great job representing his district and who is considered a leader in the Democratic Caucus. I will not engage in the slippery slope opining as to what motivated this lobbyist to openly target Juan. Nor wil I engage in a dialogue about how this lobbyist and his client sought, shaped, and supported Juan's opponent months before she made the decision to run. I just won't do that.
"What I will say is what many of you expressed to me last week upon learning about this lobbyist who led a guided tour of Austin, advancing meetings, making introductions, and scripting every move for Juan Escobar's opponent. It's the same view others have shared with me in regards to Juan Garcia's opponent. Short and sweet -- Any lobbyist who targets Juan Escobar, Juan Garcia, or any member of our Democratic caucus is targeting me and every one of you. Like you, I find it more than coincidental that one lobbying firm as taken such an open and hostile position against the Democratic caucus." (bold facing is in the original letter)
* I can't let this letter pass without comment. This is politics. If Martinez Fischer doesn't know the rules of the game, let me restate them for him. Lobbyists are expected to support friendly incumbents. They are not, and should not, be required to support unfriendly incumbents. If the Democrats are going to say, those who oppose any of us will be treated as opposing all of us, what good are they? We might as well have Craddick and Leininger.
* Update 2/5: The Corpus Christi Caller-Times endorsed Escobar, whose district extends as far north as Kleberg County (Kingsville).
Dawnna Dukes (D) -- A Craddick D, she is challenged by political newcomer Brian Thompson. The choice is between a black woman and a gay man. This is relevant information, This race will figure prominently in the contest for speaker.
* Update 1/17: Six Democratic organizations met last night, and five endorsed Thompson. However, one was the Southwest Austin Democrats, which is far from Dukes' eastside district, and two others did not endorse. Dukes held fast to her position that she will vote for a Democratic speaker if the Democrats have a majority, but if the Republicans have the majority, she will vote for the candidate that will help her do things for her district--i.e., Craddick.
* Update 1/18: The Quorum Report has this evaluation of the endorsement: "Old-timers at last night’s forum – which appeared to be a split among old-timers, county employees and new activists – said it was a new infusion of gay voters across the various associations that gave Thompson one of his edges in endorsements last night." The article goes on to say [that] "[H]e’s not someone who is running for a House seat on any kind of 'gay' agenda. The issues that concern his neighbors are going to concern him, Thompson said.
* Update 1/23: The liberal blogs have been full of reports about Dukes' questionable use of credit cards, following up on a Texas Weekly story headlined "Drastic Plastic." Here is a portion of a release from her opponent:
"Forty days after telling Travis County voters that she would correct eight years worth of misreported credit card expenses, Rep. Dawnna Dukes has yet to file a single amended campaign finance report, as she promised. "Elected officials should never be too busy to follow the law, nor should they act as if they are above the law....Representative Dukes has had forty days to do as she promised, file corrected ethics reports that are complete and accurate and don't withhold pertinent information about $89,000 in credit card expenses."
* Update 1/25. There has been considerable speculation that former state representative Glen Maxey's candidacy for Travis County tax collector against incumbent Nelda Wells Spear will have repercussions in the Dukes-Thompson race, as it is another case of a gay white male challenging an incumbent black woman. The argument is that blacks will line up behind Dukes, despite her ethics problems and her support for a Republican speaker. I suspect that this would have happened anyway; color (or, if you prefer, ethnicity) is a powerful motivator in electoral politics for all races. The district is overwhelmingly Democratic: Hutchison received just 30% of the vote here in 06, Perry only 16%. The voting age population is 32.6% Anglo, 26.1% black, and 37.9% Hispanic. Although blacks are the smallest racial group in the district, they may represent the largest turnout group in a Democratic primary, because (a) I suppose that some of the Anglos vote in the Republican primary and (b) Hispanics can't be counted on to turn out to vote in a race in which they don't have a candidate.
* Update: 1/28: More endorsements for Thompson last night from two more Democratic organizations. One was University Democrats, the other was Central Austin Democrats. This sounds good, but to repeat what I said earlier about Thompson's endorsement from the Southwest Austin Democrats, Dukes' district is in east Austin, and endorsements from groups outside of Dukes' district do not figure to be worth many--if any--votes.
* Update 1/29: The American Statesman reported today on its Web site that a complaint had been filed against Dawnna Dukes over her incomplete ethics reports.
* Lobby Talk 2/1: Thompson is getting some traction, but a big Obama vote in the presidential primary will save Dukes.
Doc Anderson (R) -- opposed by David Sibley's son Jonathan. The Sibley name remains gilt-edged in Waco, but Anderson has spent years in Republican politics here and is well liked. Both candidates are pledged to Craddick.
* Update 1/16: Sibley outraised Anderson during the reporting period by $185,022 to $51,337; however, $152,000 of the younger Sibley's contributions came from the elder Sibley.
* Update 2/1: Anderson was endorsed by the Texas Association of Business, which did not endorse any challengers to incumbents.
Jerry Madden (R) -- What did he do to deserve an opponent? The challenger is a former Rick Perry intern, Jon Cole, who accuses Madden of being soft on crime. Very ambitious. Very young. Could Perry hold a grudge against Madden over the TYC hearings? This has become a serious race.
* Update 1/14, Tarrant County DA Tim Curry, former Dallas County DA Bill Hill, and Williamson County DA endorsed Cole. From the letter: "Unfortunately, a small coalition of legislators, led by State Representative Jerry Madden, has repeatedly violated that promise through a vigorous effort to soften Texas criminal laws. Collectively, this group has undermined the discretion of judges and prosecutors, putting citizens and our children at an ever-growing risk of harm."
* Update 1/17: Apparently the DAs are angry over lawmakers' decision not to allow misdemeanants in TYC. (Madden made the Ten Best Legislators list in 2007 for his work on TYC.)
* Update 1/18: The Young Conservatives of Texas called upon Cole to stop what YCT characterized as "smear tactics" against Jerry Madden, including a push poll in Madden's district. YCT has endorsed Madden.
* Update 1/22: Various correspondents have pointed out that Cole most recently worked for Jim Pitts. This led some correspondents to speculation, as people will do on blogs, that Pitts got Cole to run in order to defeat Madden and provide a vote for Pitts in the speaker's race. Yesterday I received an e-mail from Pitts saying that he supports Madden and has conveyed that to Madden.
* Update 1/30: Madden, who is in the middle of a hot primary race, will get the benefit on Friday, February 1, of holding a joint hearing on immigration in Richardson, involving his Corrections committee and the County Affairs committee.
* Update 2/5: Jon Cole "raised serious questions about the motivation and impropriety" of Madden's decision to hold the public hearing so close to the primary election. From Cole's press release: It is outrageous for Representative Madden to put on a legislative road show just over two weeks prior to the opening of Early Voting. Legislative per diem, legislative travel, staff travel and facility use, all of this will cost taxpayers thousands of dollars and for what? So Madden can put on a ‘hearing’ that will make no decisions with the intent of grabbing a headline off the backs of the taxpayers, Cole stated. Madden responded with his own press release: Taking government out of Austin and to the people is something that should happen more frequently – not less – as it allows citizens to become more engaged. During the legislative interim, the legislature appropriately takes the opportunity to get out of Austin and hear from people affected by the issues, all around this state, and that’s what should happen. To suggest that the answers to our state’s problems can be found by sitting in Austin and expecting constituents to travel to you, is very arrogant.
Paul Moreno (D) -- The veteran warhorse faces Marisa Marquez, an under-30 Notre Dame grad and former Vista Volunteer, who had blockwalked half the district by January. Her slogan is "It's time."
* Update 1/17: The D money folks are totally behind Moreno. They are suspicious that Marquez may be playing with Craddick and/or TLR. Maybe this is because she is being introduced around Austin by former Craddick D Norma Chavez, whose renouncement of her ties to Craddick is not necessarily taken at face value by some Ds. (Both Chavez and Marquez have said publicly that they will not support Craddick for speaker.)
* Update 2/5: Moreno outraised Marquez in January, $24,600 to $8,400.
Buddy West (R) -- Battling ill health, challenged by three opponents, and getting no support from Craddick, he's got a hard road ahead.
Craddick's candidate is retired district judge Tryon Lewis. Randy Rives is a controversial school board member. The third contender is Jesse Gore, a newcomer to electoral politics.
* Update 2/1: West was endorsed by the Texas Association of Business.
Delwin Jones (R) -- Craddick/Leininger couldn't beat him in 06. Physician John Hnatek is the latest challenger.
* Update 1/17: Hnatek moved to Lubbuck several years ago. He is not well known. The Texas Medical Association is said to be supporting Jones. Unless Craddick is lying behind the log here, Jones should win this easily.
* Update 1/19: The Ethics Commission Web site shows a file for Hnatek but no campaign finance report.
Charlie Geren (R) -- Like Jones, Geren was a Craddick/Leininger target in 06. He has one of the most independent voting records in the House, and this may become an issue in the race. Opponent is prominent optometrist Tom Annunziato. This will be a no-holds-barred race, not only between the candidates but also between the Texas Medical Association and the optometrists.
* Update 1/16: Annunziato has raised $178,265, much of it from optometrists. He has $148,052 cash on hand. He has already put out seven mailers.
* Update 1/17. Geren raised $162,766 during the reporting period and has $194,801 cash on hand. Question is: Will Craddick throw in against Geren? Probably so.
Update 2/1: Geren was endorsed by the Texas Association of Business.
Robert Alonzo (D) -- Dallasblog.com describes his opponent, Harry Trujillo, as a civic activist.
Corbin Van Arsdale (R) -- Senator Dan Patrick is "all in" for Van Arsdale's challenger, Allen Fletcher, a security company owner and former Houston cop. Could be the meanest race of all.
* Update: The Fletcher campaign is touting a Hill Research poll of 300 likely Republican Primary voters (margin of error +/- 5.7%). According to the press release, Van Arsdale "enjoys relatively high name identification (85%) among Republican Primary voters." His favorable/unfavorable rating is 52%/20%. Of the 52%, the release says, a majority of Van Arsdale's support (32%) is a soft “somewhat favorable
* Update 1/17: Fletcher raised some $36,000 and also loaned $40,000 to his campaign. Van Arsdale raised just short of $120,000 and has $169,011 cash on hand.
* My comment about the poll: These numbers don't seem bad for someone who has been targeted for defeat by Dan Patrick. In particular, the press release's characterization of Van Arsdale's 20% negative rating as "high" is a stretch.
* Update 2/1: The Texas Association of Business and the Texas Association of Realtors both endorsed Van Arsdale.
Kevin Bailey (D) -- The Craddick D is a prime target for mainstream Democrats; opponent Armando Walle is a former aide to Congressman Gene Green. Key contest in the speaker's race.
* Update 1/17: Bailey's biggest contributor is HILLCO ($21,000); labor is next ($5K from AFSCME. Green is backing Walle. The conventional wisdom is that Bailey is in trouble, but Bailey will have a lot of money and help from labor. Two years ago he was able to win reelection while receiving just over 900 votes. I'm told that Hispanic activists are trying to register voters, but, given the district's performance in the past, the likelihood is that turnout will be low. More than a third of the district's population is foreign born. More than a fourth are non-citizens. More than half of the 130,000 residents speak Spanish at home and another 20% do not speak English well (from the population and household profile of the District on Bailey's House Web site).
* Update 2/3: OfftheKuff.com has a taped interview with Walle. Not arms-length. Some quotes:
--In the six years I worked for Congressman Green, he [Bailey] was not visible in the community. I've only seen him two or three times in the six years.
--Congressman Green had to call him out of bed to go vote in Austin.
--On whether he would vote for Craddick as speaker: "Absolutely not. You don't compromise the core values of this district."
* Update 2/5: Bailey received a %50,000 contribution on 1/11 from a recently activated PAC whose major donor so far is Tom Craddick, to the tune of $250,000.
Borris Miles (D) -- Al Edwards, the former Craddick D, is trying to regain his old seat.
* Update: This has developed into a bizarre race. The Houston Chronicle reported that the Harris County DA's office is investigating Miles' conduct at a holiday party: "According to witnesses, Miles entered a St. Regis Hotel ballroom uninvited, confronting guests, displaying a pistol and forcibly kissing another man's wife." How stupid do you have to be to do this three months before a primary election? How stupid do you have to be to lose a race to Al Edwards?
* Update 1/18: Miles has dropped out of sight. The Chronicle's Rick Casey wrote yesterday that Garnet Coleman "thinks Miles suffers under the strain of a diagnosis of sickle cell anemia." Coleman told me that Miles has been in the hospital.
* Update 1/22: Miles has been sued over the unwanted kiss and the plaintiff has asked that he be required to provide a blood sample. Miles is said to be hospitalized with pneumonia. I didn't think it was possible to replace Edwards with someone worse, but his district was up to the challenge.
* Update 2/1: The Texas Association of Realtors endorsed Miles.
Garnet Coleman (D) -- Opposed by LaRhonda Torry.
* Update 1/19: Harris County Democratic Chairman Gerry Birnberg refused to accept Torry's filing fee because she had not yet designated a campaign treasurer. Coleman says that the law requires that a candidate designate a treasurer before any funds have been raised or spent. Torry's lawyer is Craddick ally Ron Wilson. The case is in the courts.
* Update 1/26: The Supreme Court has ruled that a county chairman may not disqualify a candidate because of a failure to designate a campaign treasurer, meaning that Torry's name will be on the ballot. The Court acknowledged that a candidate violates the law by accepting a contribution or making an expenditure without designating a treasurer, but such a violation is a Class A misdemeanor. The Court said that a county chairman may not impose his own penalty.
INCUMBENTS WITH GENERAL ELECTION RACES ONLY (28 D, 25 R)
The most interesting thing about these races is an apparent Republican strategy to challenge black and Hispanic Democratic incumbents. As readers will see, there are a large number of such races, in which Democrats will be favored, but local rivalries, low Democratic turnout, and lavish campaign budgets could produce an upset or two.
Stephen Frost (D) -- opposed by George Lavender, a former House and Senate candidate.
* Update 1/17: Lavender's campaign finance report lists no contributions.
Mark Homer (D) -- The WD-40 faces Kirby Hollingsworth for the third straight election; the 04 race was very close; the 06 race was not.
Wayne Christian (R) -- Democrat Kenneth Franks is a teacher.
Chuck Hopson (D) -- Brian Walker, loser of the 06 Republican runoff, will face the WD-40.
Jim McReynolds (D) -- Yet another WD-40, he faces Republican Van Brookshire.
* Update 1/16: Brookshire was the Republican nominee for Congress in 2002, losing 61-38 against Democrat Jim Turner in a big Republican year. He also ran third in the 2000 race for the state Senate seat that eventually was won by Todd Staples. He has served as interim county judge of San Jacinto County and county Republican chairman. Originally I was told that Brookshire was a member of the family that operates a chain of grocery stores in East Texas and produced a legislator, Oscar Brookshire.
* Update 1/17: I spoke to McReynolds' campaign chairman. The grocery store Brookshires in Lufkin contributed to McReynolds. Van is not related.
John Otto (R) -- His "no" vote on Indian gambling resulted in a tie that killed the measure, which has a lot of support in his district from economic development advocates; Arlan Foster, the president of the correctional employees union, is the Democratic challenger. The five prisons in the district employ 1,852 workers.
Mike "Tuffy" Hamilton (R) -- D candidate Larry Hunter has held a plethora of local offices (school board, mayor, municipal judge). This race in a swing district is crucial in the battle for majority control of the House.
Dan Gattis (R) -- Has two Democratic opponents, of whom Leonard Surratt seems to be the more active, but this is a solid R district.
John Zerwas (R) -- There are some transitional districts in the Harris County region that a Democrat could win, but this isn't one of them. Democrat Dorothy Bottos has little chance.
Juan Garcia (D) -- Former member and lobbyist Todd Hunter is favored to reverse Garcia's 06 upset win. The Corpus Christi Caller Times says that the district includes eleven of the most conservative precincts in Nueces County. This is the Republicans' top-targeted district in the state.
* Update: Two former Democratic members from the Coastal Bend, Hugo Berlanga and Judy Hawley, will co-chair Hunter's campaign.
* Update 1/14: The Texas Ethics Commission has fined the Garcia campaign $1,800 for reporting vioations. I don't see how Garcia can win this race.
Solomon Ortiz (D) -- He won a squeaker in 06 (by 5%) in a special election to replace Vilma Luna. His opponent, Raul Torres, was mentioned as a possible candidate in that race. His father, the congressman of the same name, is increasingly controversial but can turn the vote out. This is a smart speculation by Republicans.
Abel Herrero (D) -- His opponent, Connie Scott, is a tort-reform activist.
HOUSE SEATS Lets start digging dirt on all of them, and find out the ones who love liberty if we can. Help me highlight ones who stick out especially easy to beat or just rotten. I highlighted a few need your help also.
89 House Seats Will Be Contested in 2008
CANDIDATES RUNNING UNOPPOSED (32 R, 29 D)
Dan Flynn (R)
Bryan Hughes (R)
Leo Berman (R) -- faced major opposition in 06
Tommy Merritt (R) -- a surprise that he's unopposed; Craddick/Leininger tried to take him out in 06
Jim Pitts (R) -- another surprise; he's a potential Craddick rival for speaker
Lois Kolkhorst (R)
Fred Brown (R)
Rob Eissler (R)
Brandon Creighton (R)
Allan Ritter (D) -- WD-40 who escaped opposition
Joe Deshotel (D) -- former Craddick D
Craig Eiland (D)
Larry Taylor (R)
Dennis Bonnen (R) -- environmentalists' criticism only helps him in Dow country
Geanie Morrison (R)
Ryan Guillen (D) -- Craddick D
Yvonne Gonzalez Toureilles (D)
Eddie Lucio III (D)
Armando Martinez (D)
Richard Raymond (D)
Edmund Kuempel (R)--former Craddick rival for speaker
Eddie Rodriguez (D)
Harvey Hildenbran (R)
Jimmie Don Aycock (R)
Jim Dunnam (D) -- Democratic leader runs unopposed
Burt Solomons (R) -- possible speaker candidate
Brian McCall (R) -- another speaker candidate; a Plano prosecutor opted not to run
Rick Hardcastle (R)
David Farabee (D) -- along with Ritter, he's one of two WD-40 to escape opposition
Ken Paxton (R)
Susan King (R) -- push poll in her district did not lead to an opponent
Drew Darby (R)
Norma Chavez (D) -- estranged Craddick D
Joe Pickett (D)
Tracy King (D) -- Craddick D
Carl Isett (R)
David Swinford (D)
Warren Chisum (R)
Jodie Laubenberg (R)
Diane Patrick (R)
Marc Veasy (D)
Terri Hodge (D) -- indicted for bribery, fraud, and conspiracy, but no opponent
Rafael Anchia (D)
Helen Giddings (D) -- Craddick D
Barbara Mallory Caraway (D)
Will Hartnett (R)
Martinez Fischer (D)
Roland Gutierrez (D) -- running unopposed for Puente's seat
Ruth McClendon D) -- Craddick D
Joe Strauss (R)
Mike Villareal (D)
Jose Menendez (D)
Joaquin Castro (D)
Wayne Smith (R)
Alma Allen (D)
Bill Callegari (R)
Beverly Woolley (R)
Scott Hochberg (D) -- frequently challenged by Rs in previous years, but not this time
Sylvester Turner (D) -- the quintessential Craddick D
Harold Dutton (D) -- Craddick D
INCUMBENTS FACING PRIMARY ELECTIONS ONLY (10 D, 8 R)
There aren't a lot of races in this group, but a high percentage of them involve players in the speaker's race, including five battles involving current (or, in the case of Al Edwards, former) Craddick Ds. These are crucial races in the continuing battle over Craddick's reelection as speaker.
Byron Cook (R) -- potential speaker candidate faces Bobby Vickery, a little known opponent from Frost, which is appropriate because it will be the proverbial cold day in hell if he wins.
* Update 2/6. Nothing under Vickery's name in the Ethics Commission's files.
Charlie Howard (R) -- Paula Stansell, a precinct chair and civic leader, is potentially a strong opponent.
* Update 1/16: Stansell loaned her campaign $60,000 but received little in the way of contributions. Howard's report is not yet online.
* Update 1/22: Howard has a hefty $255,000 cash on hand.
* Update 1/29: Kyle Janek's decision to delay his resignation from the Senate until June raises some intriguing possibilities -- and quandaries -- for Howard. The Quorum Report speculates that the special election for Janek's Senate seat will not occur until the day of the general election in November. If Howard wins the primary for his House seat, could he step aside as the Republican nominee, allowing the local precinct chairs to pick a replacement, and then run for the Senate? This is a possibility that could become an issue in Howard's primary race.
Kino Flores (D) -- Craddick D faces Sandra Rodriguez, former president of the local Democratic Women's Political Caucus and a former school board member (Pharr-San Juan-Alamo).
* Update 12/17: Flores is an entrenched, hard-campaigning incumbent from a prominent political family in the western part of Hidalgo County. His father is mayor of Sullivan City. Rodriguez grew up in Mission. Her husband, Fernando Mancias, is a former district judge. Rodriguez's consultant, James Aldrete, managed Carlos Uresti's upset victory over Frank Madla in 06. The Rodriguez camp is using Flores' seven votes against CHIP (ranging from budget cuts to expansion of the program) as a major issue in the campaign. Annie's List, a Democratic fundraising organization named for Annie Webb Blanton, the first woman elected to statewide office in Texas (Superintendent of Public Instruction, 1918) is helping Rodriguez, who will need to buy TV time to offset Flores' warchest -- his report shows $266,000 spent so far and $78,000 cash on hand -- and his old-style campaign methods, like providing turkeys to area churches and sending flowers to rosaries. This is a real race.
* Update 2/5: Flores received a %50,000 donation on 1/11 from a recently activated PAC whose major donor so far is Tom Craddick, to the tune of $250,000. Rodriguez has only $32,000 cash on hand at the thirty-day mark.
Rene Oliveira (D) -- challenger John "Roca" Shergold, a Brownsville attorney, says the late Fort Worth legislator Doyle Willis was his political mentor. I shouldn't speak ill of the dead, and Willis was a World War II hero, but his derisive nickname of "Oily Doyley" is too good not to mention.
* Update 1/18: Shergold has attacked Oliveira for accepting $1,000 worth of Spurs' tickets from TXU. He also criticized Oliveira for voting against a proposal requiring disclosure when an insurance company opens a car repair shop.
Aaron Pena (D) -- Craddick D faces a challenge by Eddie Rodriguez, a civil engineer and chairman of two hospital boards.
* Update 1/16: Saenz was supposed to be a tough opponent for Pena, but he was cited for DUI before the filing deadline and was a no-show at a major Democratic forum, sending his wife to represent him.
* Update 1/17: D analysts say the only way to beat Pena is from the left, and Saenz, a chamber of commerce type, is not the sort to be comfortable with campaigning from that direction.
* Update 1/22: I just got back from a trip to the Valley, and I couldn't find anybody who thinks Pena has any problems.
* Update 1/31: Saenz serves as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Edinburg Regional Medical Center and Edinburg Children’s Hospital, but the Texas Hospital Association endorsed Pena. This is not a renunciation of Saenz but rather an instance of the friendly incumbent rule at work.
* Lobby Talk 2/1: Some lobbyists think this is a real race. La Joya mayor Billy Leo, a longtime power broker on the west side of Hidalgo County, is supporting Saenz.
* Update 2/3: Saenz is attacking Pena for missing a vote on the Voter ID bill, which passed the House by a single vote. From Saenz's Web site: "Last year, my opponent Aaron Pena took a walk when his Republican allies in Austin passed a Voter I.D. bill by a single vote."
* Update 2/4: Pena's blog reports that the Criminal Jurisprudence committee, which he chairs, met in Valley to address the problem of drunk driving. Not coincidentally, DUI is an offense for which his primary opponent was recently cited.
* Update 2/5: Pena received a %50,000 contribution on 1/11 from a recently activated PAC whose major donor so far is Tom Craddick, to the tune of $250,000.
Juan Escobar (D) -- His opponent, Tara Rios Ybarra, a dentist who practices in Brownsville but serves as an alderman for South Padre Island, has been running for five months. She is a very attractive candidate, in every sense of the word.
* Update: I wrote on 1/14 that the Republicans believe they have a strong candidate here. Sort of a Freudian slip: Ybarra is running as a Democrat, but Ds believe she is Republican who is backed by Texans for Lawsuit Reform. Word in the lobby is that the Hispanic Caucus regards this as a must-support-Escobar race. Question is: Will Republicans cross over to vote for Ybarra? If the GOP's presidential race is still up in the air, crossover turnout will be greatly reduced. Hutchison beat Radnofsky here, 55-45, while losing most of the other South Texas districts.
* Update 1/22: I drove around Harlingen today looking at political signs. Escobar identifies himself as a Democrat. Some may find it significant that Ybarra does not do so. Her signs simply say, "A New Voice -- for a Change."
* Update 1/29. The shadow of strongarm politics hangs over this race. Last week, Trey Martinez Fischer sent out a letter to members of the House Democratic caucus with a threatening tone. It has been widely circulated. Here are the two key paragraphs:
"This year marks the first time I have ever seen a lobbyist go out of his way to challenge a sitting member, especially one who has done a great job representing his district and who is considered a leader in the Democratic Caucus. I will not engage in the slippery slope opining as to what motivated this lobbyist to openly target Juan. Nor wil I engage in a dialogue about how this lobbyist and his client sought, shaped, and supported Juan's opponent months before she made the decision to run. I just won't do that.
"What I will say is what many of you expressed to me last week upon learning about this lobbyist who led a guided tour of Austin, advancing meetings, making introductions, and scripting every move for Juan Escobar's opponent. It's the same view others have shared with me in regards to Juan Garcia's opponent. Short and sweet -- Any lobbyist who targets Juan Escobar, Juan Garcia, or any member of our Democratic caucus is targeting me and every one of you. Like you, I find it more than coincidental that one lobbying firm as taken such an open and hostile position against the Democratic caucus." (bold facing is in the original letter)
* I can't let this letter pass without comment. This is politics. If Martinez Fischer doesn't know the rules of the game, let me restate them for him. Lobbyists are expected to support friendly incumbents. They are not, and should not, be required to support unfriendly incumbents. If the Democrats are going to say, those who oppose any of us will be treated as opposing all of us, what good are they? We might as well have Craddick and Leininger.
* Update 2/5: The Corpus Christi Caller-Times endorsed Escobar, whose district extends as far north as Kleberg County (Kingsville).
Dawnna Dukes (D) -- A Craddick D, she is challenged by political newcomer Brian Thompson. The choice is between a black woman and a gay man. This is relevant information, This race will figure prominently in the contest for speaker.
* Update 1/17: Six Democratic organizations met last night, and five endorsed Thompson. However, one was the Southwest Austin Democrats, which is far from Dukes' eastside district, and two others did not endorse. Dukes held fast to her position that she will vote for a Democratic speaker if the Democrats have a majority, but if the Republicans have the majority, she will vote for the candidate that will help her do things for her district--i.e., Craddick.
* Update 1/18: The Quorum Report has this evaluation of the endorsement: "Old-timers at last night’s forum – which appeared to be a split among old-timers, county employees and new activists – said it was a new infusion of gay voters across the various associations that gave Thompson one of his edges in endorsements last night." The article goes on to say [that] "[H]e’s not someone who is running for a House seat on any kind of 'gay' agenda. The issues that concern his neighbors are going to concern him, Thompson said.
* Update 1/23: The liberal blogs have been full of reports about Dukes' questionable use of credit cards, following up on a Texas Weekly story headlined "Drastic Plastic." Here is a portion of a release from her opponent:
"Forty days after telling Travis County voters that she would correct eight years worth of misreported credit card expenses, Rep. Dawnna Dukes has yet to file a single amended campaign finance report, as she promised. "Elected officials should never be too busy to follow the law, nor should they act as if they are above the law....Representative Dukes has had forty days to do as she promised, file corrected ethics reports that are complete and accurate and don't withhold pertinent information about $89,000 in credit card expenses."
* Update 1/25. There has been considerable speculation that former state representative Glen Maxey's candidacy for Travis County tax collector against incumbent Nelda Wells Spear will have repercussions in the Dukes-Thompson race, as it is another case of a gay white male challenging an incumbent black woman. The argument is that blacks will line up behind Dukes, despite her ethics problems and her support for a Republican speaker. I suspect that this would have happened anyway; color (or, if you prefer, ethnicity) is a powerful motivator in electoral politics for all races. The district is overwhelmingly Democratic: Hutchison received just 30% of the vote here in 06, Perry only 16%. The voting age population is 32.6% Anglo, 26.1% black, and 37.9% Hispanic. Although blacks are the smallest racial group in the district, they may represent the largest turnout group in a Democratic primary, because (a) I suppose that some of the Anglos vote in the Republican primary and (b) Hispanics can't be counted on to turn out to vote in a race in which they don't have a candidate.
* Update: 1/28: More endorsements for Thompson last night from two more Democratic organizations. One was University Democrats, the other was Central Austin Democrats. This sounds good, but to repeat what I said earlier about Thompson's endorsement from the Southwest Austin Democrats, Dukes' district is in east Austin, and endorsements from groups outside of Dukes' district do not figure to be worth many--if any--votes.
* Update 1/29: The American Statesman reported today on its Web site that a complaint had been filed against Dawnna Dukes over her incomplete ethics reports.
* Lobby Talk 2/1: Thompson is getting some traction, but a big Obama vote in the presidential primary will save Dukes.
Doc Anderson (R) -- opposed by David Sibley's son Jonathan. The Sibley name remains gilt-edged in Waco, but Anderson has spent years in Republican politics here and is well liked. Both candidates are pledged to Craddick.
* Update 1/16: Sibley outraised Anderson during the reporting period by $185,022 to $51,337; however, $152,000 of the younger Sibley's contributions came from the elder Sibley.
* Update 2/1: Anderson was endorsed by the Texas Association of Business, which did not endorse any challengers to incumbents.
Jerry Madden (R) -- What did he do to deserve an opponent? The challenger is a former Rick Perry intern, Jon Cole, who accuses Madden of being soft on crime. Very ambitious. Very young. Could Perry hold a grudge against Madden over the TYC hearings? This has become a serious race.
* Update 1/14, Tarrant County DA Tim Curry, former Dallas County DA Bill Hill, and Williamson County DA endorsed Cole. From the letter: "Unfortunately, a small coalition of legislators, led by State Representative Jerry Madden, has repeatedly violated that promise through a vigorous effort to soften Texas criminal laws. Collectively, this group has undermined the discretion of judges and prosecutors, putting citizens and our children at an ever-growing risk of harm."
* Update 1/17: Apparently the DAs are angry over lawmakers' decision not to allow misdemeanants in TYC. (Madden made the Ten Best Legislators list in 2007 for his work on TYC.)
* Update 1/18: The Young Conservatives of Texas called upon Cole to stop what YCT characterized as "smear tactics" against Jerry Madden, including a push poll in Madden's district. YCT has endorsed Madden.
* Update 1/22: Various correspondents have pointed out that Cole most recently worked for Jim Pitts. This led some correspondents to speculation, as people will do on blogs, that Pitts got Cole to run in order to defeat Madden and provide a vote for Pitts in the speaker's race. Yesterday I received an e-mail from Pitts saying that he supports Madden and has conveyed that to Madden.
* Update 1/30: Madden, who is in the middle of a hot primary race, will get the benefit on Friday, February 1, of holding a joint hearing on immigration in Richardson, involving his Corrections committee and the County Affairs committee.
* Update 2/5: Jon Cole "raised serious questions about the motivation and impropriety" of Madden's decision to hold the public hearing so close to the primary election. From Cole's press release: It is outrageous for Representative Madden to put on a legislative road show just over two weeks prior to the opening of Early Voting. Legislative per diem, legislative travel, staff travel and facility use, all of this will cost taxpayers thousands of dollars and for what? So Madden can put on a ‘hearing’ that will make no decisions with the intent of grabbing a headline off the backs of the taxpayers, Cole stated. Madden responded with his own press release: Taking government out of Austin and to the people is something that should happen more frequently – not less – as it allows citizens to become more engaged. During the legislative interim, the legislature appropriately takes the opportunity to get out of Austin and hear from people affected by the issues, all around this state, and that’s what should happen. To suggest that the answers to our state’s problems can be found by sitting in Austin and expecting constituents to travel to you, is very arrogant.
Paul Moreno (D) -- The veteran warhorse faces Marisa Marquez, an under-30 Notre Dame grad and former Vista Volunteer, who had blockwalked half the district by January. Her slogan is "It's time."
* Update 1/17: The D money folks are totally behind Moreno. They are suspicious that Marquez may be playing with Craddick and/or TLR. Maybe this is because she is being introduced around Austin by former Craddick D Norma Chavez, whose renouncement of her ties to Craddick is not necessarily taken at face value by some Ds. (Both Chavez and Marquez have said publicly that they will not support Craddick for speaker.)
* Update 2/5: Moreno outraised Marquez in January, $24,600 to $8,400.
Buddy West (R) -- Battling ill health, challenged by three opponents, and getting no support from Craddick, he's got a hard road ahead.
Craddick's candidate is retired district judge Tryon Lewis. Randy Rives is a controversial school board member. The third contender is Jesse Gore, a newcomer to electoral politics.
* Update 2/1: West was endorsed by the Texas Association of Business.
Delwin Jones (R) -- Craddick/Leininger couldn't beat him in 06. Physician John Hnatek is the latest challenger.
* Update 1/17: Hnatek moved to Lubbuck several years ago. He is not well known. The Texas Medical Association is said to be supporting Jones. Unless Craddick is lying behind the log here, Jones should win this easily.
* Update 1/19: The Ethics Commission Web site shows a file for Hnatek but no campaign finance report.
Charlie Geren (R) -- Like Jones, Geren was a Craddick/Leininger target in 06. He has one of the most independent voting records in the House, and this may become an issue in the race. Opponent is prominent optometrist Tom Annunziato. This will be a no-holds-barred race, not only between the candidates but also between the Texas Medical Association and the optometrists.
* Update 1/16: Annunziato has raised $178,265, much of it from optometrists. He has $148,052 cash on hand. He has already put out seven mailers.
* Update 1/17. Geren raised $162,766 during the reporting period and has $194,801 cash on hand. Question is: Will Craddick throw in against Geren? Probably so.
Update 2/1: Geren was endorsed by the Texas Association of Business.
Robert Alonzo (D) -- Dallasblog.com describes his opponent, Harry Trujillo, as a civic activist.
Corbin Van Arsdale (R) -- Senator Dan Patrick is "all in" for Van Arsdale's challenger, Allen Fletcher, a security company owner and former Houston cop. Could be the meanest race of all.
* Update: The Fletcher campaign is touting a Hill Research poll of 300 likely Republican Primary voters (margin of error +/- 5.7%). According to the press release, Van Arsdale "enjoys relatively high name identification (85%) among Republican Primary voters." His favorable/unfavorable rating is 52%/20%. Of the 52%, the release says, a majority of Van Arsdale's support (32%) is a soft “somewhat favorable
* Update 1/17: Fletcher raised some $36,000 and also loaned $40,000 to his campaign. Van Arsdale raised just short of $120,000 and has $169,011 cash on hand.
* My comment about the poll: These numbers don't seem bad for someone who has been targeted for defeat by Dan Patrick. In particular, the press release's characterization of Van Arsdale's 20% negative rating as "high" is a stretch.
* Update 2/1: The Texas Association of Business and the Texas Association of Realtors both endorsed Van Arsdale.
Kevin Bailey (D) -- The Craddick D is a prime target for mainstream Democrats; opponent Armando Walle is a former aide to Congressman Gene Green. Key contest in the speaker's race.
* Update 1/17: Bailey's biggest contributor is HILLCO ($21,000); labor is next ($5K from AFSCME. Green is backing Walle. The conventional wisdom is that Bailey is in trouble, but Bailey will have a lot of money and help from labor. Two years ago he was able to win reelection while receiving just over 900 votes. I'm told that Hispanic activists are trying to register voters, but, given the district's performance in the past, the likelihood is that turnout will be low. More than a third of the district's population is foreign born. More than a fourth are non-citizens. More than half of the 130,000 residents speak Spanish at home and another 20% do not speak English well (from the population and household profile of the District on Bailey's House Web site).
* Update 2/3: OfftheKuff.com has a taped interview with Walle. Not arms-length. Some quotes:
--In the six years I worked for Congressman Green, he [Bailey] was not visible in the community. I've only seen him two or three times in the six years.
--Congressman Green had to call him out of bed to go vote in Austin.
--On whether he would vote for Craddick as speaker: "Absolutely not. You don't compromise the core values of this district."
* Update 2/5: Bailey received a %50,000 contribution on 1/11 from a recently activated PAC whose major donor so far is Tom Craddick, to the tune of $250,000.
Borris Miles (D) -- Al Edwards, the former Craddick D, is trying to regain his old seat.
* Update: This has developed into a bizarre race. The Houston Chronicle reported that the Harris County DA's office is investigating Miles' conduct at a holiday party: "According to witnesses, Miles entered a St. Regis Hotel ballroom uninvited, confronting guests, displaying a pistol and forcibly kissing another man's wife." How stupid do you have to be to do this three months before a primary election? How stupid do you have to be to lose a race to Al Edwards?
* Update 1/18: Miles has dropped out of sight. The Chronicle's Rick Casey wrote yesterday that Garnet Coleman "thinks Miles suffers under the strain of a diagnosis of sickle cell anemia." Coleman told me that Miles has been in the hospital.
* Update 1/22: Miles has been sued over the unwanted kiss and the plaintiff has asked that he be required to provide a blood sample. Miles is said to be hospitalized with pneumonia. I didn't think it was possible to replace Edwards with someone worse, but his district was up to the challenge.
* Update 2/1: The Texas Association of Realtors endorsed Miles.
Garnet Coleman (D) -- Opposed by LaRhonda Torry.
* Update 1/19: Harris County Democratic Chairman Gerry Birnberg refused to accept Torry's filing fee because she had not yet designated a campaign treasurer. Coleman says that the law requires that a candidate designate a treasurer before any funds have been raised or spent. Torry's lawyer is Craddick ally Ron Wilson. The case is in the courts.
* Update 1/26: The Supreme Court has ruled that a county chairman may not disqualify a candidate because of a failure to designate a campaign treasurer, meaning that Torry's name will be on the ballot. The Court acknowledged that a candidate violates the law by accepting a contribution or making an expenditure without designating a treasurer, but such a violation is a Class A misdemeanor. The Court said that a county chairman may not impose his own penalty.
INCUMBENTS WITH GENERAL ELECTION RACES ONLY (28 D, 25 R)
The most interesting thing about these races is an apparent Republican strategy to challenge black and Hispanic Democratic incumbents. As readers will see, there are a large number of such races, in which Democrats will be favored, but local rivalries, low Democratic turnout, and lavish campaign budgets could produce an upset or two.
Stephen Frost (D) -- opposed by George Lavender, a former House and Senate candidate.
* Update 1/17: Lavender's campaign finance report lists no contributions.
Mark Homer (D) -- The WD-40 faces Kirby Hollingsworth for the third straight election; the 04 race was very close; the 06 race was not.
Wayne Christian (R) -- Democrat Kenneth Franks is a teacher.
Chuck Hopson (D) -- Brian Walker, loser of the 06 Republican runoff, will face the WD-40.
Jim McReynolds (D) -- Yet another WD-40, he faces Republican Van Brookshire.
* Update 1/16: Brookshire was the Republican nominee for Congress in 2002, losing 61-38 against Democrat Jim Turner in a big Republican year. He also ran third in the 2000 race for the state Senate seat that eventually was won by Todd Staples. He has served as interim county judge of San Jacinto County and county Republican chairman. Originally I was told that Brookshire was a member of the family that operates a chain of grocery stores in East Texas and produced a legislator, Oscar Brookshire.
* Update 1/17: I spoke to McReynolds' campaign chairman. The grocery store Brookshires in Lufkin contributed to McReynolds. Van is not related.
John Otto (R) -- His "no" vote on Indian gambling resulted in a tie that killed the measure, which has a lot of support in his district from economic development advocates; Arlan Foster, the president of the correctional employees union, is the Democratic challenger. The five prisons in the district employ 1,852 workers.
Mike "Tuffy" Hamilton (R) -- D candidate Larry Hunter has held a plethora of local offices (school board, mayor, municipal judge). This race in a swing district is crucial in the battle for majority control of the House.
Dan Gattis (R) -- Has two Democratic opponents, of whom Leonard Surratt seems to be the more active, but this is a solid R district.
John Zerwas (R) -- There are some transitional districts in the Harris County region that a Democrat could win, but this isn't one of them. Democrat Dorothy Bottos has little chance.
Juan Garcia (D) -- Former member and lobbyist Todd Hunter is favored to reverse Garcia's 06 upset win. The Corpus Christi Caller Times says that the district includes eleven of the most conservative precincts in Nueces County. This is the Republicans' top-targeted district in the state.
* Update: Two former Democratic members from the Coastal Bend, Hugo Berlanga and Judy Hawley, will co-chair Hunter's campaign.
* Update 1/14: The Texas Ethics Commission has fined the Garcia campaign $1,800 for reporting vioations. I don't see how Garcia can win this race.
Solomon Ortiz (D) -- He won a squeaker in 06 (by 5%) in a special election to replace Vilma Luna. His opponent, Raul Torres, was mentioned as a possible candidate in that race. His father, the congressman of the same name, is increasingly controversial but can turn the vote out. This is a smart speculation by Republicans.
Abel Herrero (D) -- His opponent, Connie Scott, is a tort-reform activist.