Peak Oil

[kyleAF]

Has anyone ever checked out this site?:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Index.html

That's about the most sobering thing I've ever read.

It takes approximately 10 calories of oil energy to make every 1 calorie of food that we consume in today's oil-based agricultural industries.

A depletion of oil won't just mean expensive gas, hybrid cars, and bicycles... try famine, starvation, and mass rioting.

The house of cards we've built around us is bigger than I ever thought.

[Primbs]

Historically, these situations are usually solved through innovation. Replacement energy sources will probably be developed.

I would tend to discount the worst case scenarios in regard to the fuel situation.

[Michigan11]

I visit that site every other day, and click on 'breaking news'. It's sorts out alot of great articles of the day on finance and economics, and of course oil, etc. Great source for financial news stories actually.

But yes, I have found that site, about 2 years ago and was a very sobering look at our world, based on oil. Like the other poster said don't get too drawn into the worse case scenarios, or you will lose your mind thinking about it.

[kyleAF]

Historically, these situations are usually solved through innovation. Replacement energy sources will probably be developed.

I would tend to discount the worst case scenarios in regard to the fuel situation.

Yes, of course.

Unfortunately, everything that we currently do depends on oil, because we've allowed our infrastructure to develop that way. It requires oil to build a solar panel. It requires oil to mine for coal. It requires oil to build and operate a wind farm. It requires oil to do just about everything within our economy. It requires oil to make medicine at the pharmaceuticals, and just about all plastics. The roads you drive on, and the concrete in the buildings, as well as all metals require a vast amount of oil for production.

Even the financial system is dependent on it in a way... with the credit bubble, the only thing keeping it from bursting is a constant increase in the economy and willingness to take on debt. That'll change because of this (though the bubble will have burst before then, IMO).

I hope that you're right, but I won't count on it!

[Fox McCloud]

I've heard that this is mostly a myth--there's vast oil reserves in Canada that aren't being used, there's oil off the coast of Alaska, and there's oil in the Gulf of Mexico....let's also not forget ANWR.

Then who knows how much oil Russia has, and isn't letting on.

Either way, from what I gather, peak oil won't even be an issue until about 300-500 years down the road.

[kyleAF]

But yes, I have found that site, about 2 years ago and was a very sobering look at our world, based on oil. Like the other poster said don't get too drawn into the worse case scenarios, or you will lose your mind thinking about it.

Yes, I do believe you're right. I prefer to know, though. Ignorance is not bliss for me...

[kyleAF]

I've heard that this is mostly a myth--there's vast oil reserves in Canada that aren't being used, there's oil off the coast of Alaska, and there's oil in the Gulf of Mexico....let's also not forget ANWR.

Then who knows how much oil Russia has, and isn't letting on.

Either way, from what I gather, peak oil won't even be an issue until about 300-500 years down the road.

Yea, wouldn't it be nice to have all the facts? Read the main blog... he talks about mergers and acquisitions as an indicator that the oil companies know what's up.

Most countries have peaked already. The U.S. did back in the 1970s, and we haven't built a refinery since then... despite the massive lobbying power that the oil companies have. I mean, there's an oil man as President right now! It makes sense that the environmental lobby couldn't have prevented it...

What if the ANWR region is our hegemonic reserve?? We use up the oil in the middle east before we touch our domestic stockpile. Keeps the other countries from gaining a foothold...and sort of takes the petrodollar wars to the next level. "They want to get off the dollar!? Well, we'll just take their oil!"

Just a thought. Who the hell knows?

The economic problems will get here before this is a factor in either case.

[JordanQ72]

The US alone has oil shale reserves that can provide enough energy for over 100 years at current consumption. The issue is that it isn't, or at least wasn't, price efficient. It winds up costing $70 or so a barrel for oil. It's been profitable for a year now. If the price of oil should seem to stabilize above this, expect a lot more facilities to open up to process shale. It's a good time lag though, you need the price to be way above or many solid reasons to believe it will be if the margin isn't that high. The worst thing you want to do is to sink a couple 100 billion into processing, and then the whole thing is unprofitable.

Another important point is that you're mistaking 'oil' in the general sense, with the stuff pumped out of the ground. Oil doesn't have to be pumped out of the ground. It can come from shale for example, or from any of the plentiful synfuels examples. Brazil is a perfect example of this.

It's why I'm not especially concerned about the claims of sites such as this. Oil pumped out of the ground might very well experience issues, but it's nothing of concern to me. Really, the day the ground based oil runs out is going to be a great day. The US will be at the top of the energy game, almost completely monopolizing the oil shale and coal industries in terms of quantity supplied. Other synfuels as well, such as biodiesel, considering we currently pay farmers NOT to grow crops, producing excess for fuel would be trivial.

[Primbs]

As the oil price goes, alternatives will start to be developed. That doesn't mean there won't be some hardship.

Even the Germans in WWII started to make liquid fuel from coal. The US has lots of coal.

Bio Fuels will get bigger and oil shale will be used more. Plus there are lots of oil fields not being used that will be used again.

Inflation will happen in those areas which use oil.

Nuclear can be increased.

And the average person may switch to more wood burning systems and away from oil to heat their house.

Certain industries may feel a lot of pain.

[EvilEngineer]

look into aqua-cultures... might save your life one day being able to supply your own food for your self and your family.

[Luft97]

Yea, wouldn't it be nice to have all the facts? Read the main blog... he talks about mergers and acquisitions as an indicator that the oil companies know what's up.

Most countries have peaked already. The U.S. did back in the 1970s, and we haven't built a refinery since then... despite the massive lobbying power that the oil companies have. I mean, there's an oil man as President right now! It makes sense that the environmental lobby couldn't have prevented it...

What if the ANWR region is our hegemonic reserve?? We use up the oil in the middle east before we touch our domestic stockpile. Keeps the other countries from gaining a foothold...and sort of takes the petrodollar wars to the next level. "They want to get off the dollar!? Well, we'll just take their oil!"

Just a thought. Who the hell knows?

The economic problems will get here before this is a factor in either case.


In my opinion peak oil is a myth to scare people, or even an excuse to explain the rising prices of oil. I have been in the Oil Industry for 10 years. I represent a variety of companies as a on-site liason during the buying and selling process.

At the moment there is not a huge need for more refineries. Yes of course no new refineries have been built in the last 20 years here in the US but there have been many acquisitions by larger companies of smaller refiners, increasing the production of these said acquisitions. Also many refiners have constructed new process units on unused land.

Also you should look overseas. US refinery workers are high paid individuals or at least well paid. Labor and refinery operations are much cheaper overseas.

The top 5 BPD output refineries in the world are not here in the United States, when the reliance refinery in India is finished it will be top 6. that should tell you something.