Peden is NOT leading Paul in polling, read this

[katjust]

I took this from comments on a Peden piece on the Houston chronicle website. It is written by Paul's congressional campaign manager (who has posted on these forums before).

*******

I hate to dash the spirits of what few Peden supporters exist out there, but the desperate propaganda being promoted by the Peden campaign on how well Peden is doing in the polls is no where near reality. Peden is NOT leading Dr. Paul in this race. In fact, most voters still don't even know who Peden is. How do I know this? Because I am Ron Paul's campaign manager and I have personally overseen 4 different political surveys in district 14 in recent weeks. All 4 surveys have shown the same results: Ron Paul has a high favorable rating and high marks on his job approval. And if the election were held today, 60+ percent of the GOP voters say they would vote to reelect Ron Paul, while only 18-20% chose Peden. The remaining 20% or so say they are undecided or refuse to give an answer to these scientific and statistically accurate surveys.

For those who follow the Ron Paul congressional campaigns you will remember that Shane Sklar, Dr. Paul's Democrat opponent pulled this same kind of deceptive game toward the end of his campaign, putting out press statements saying he had polls claiming his was tied with or even ahead of Ron Paul.

For example:
Burnt Orange Report::: TX-14: Shane Sklar Can Beat Ron Paul
Shane Sklar leads Ron Paul 54-30% in an informed Congressional vote.

And let me see now...Sklar got beat by Ron Paul by how much? This press clip may jog your memory of the election outcome...

Ron Paul .... defeated Democratic rancher Shane Sklar with 60 percent of the vote. ...

So, those of you who believe Peden's supposed lead in the polls should really place some bets on this one...BIG bets. And then when Peden, who is still virtually unknown to the voters and has almost no money in his campaign, (other than what he has loaned himself) loses the election and you lose a lot of money...then, maybe, reality might become a little more clear.

Just presenting the facts to help provide a little political reality check.

Oh, and BTW, Ron Paul can not and will not access money he has raised for his presidential race for use in his congressional campaign. It is not allowed under federal election rules. But then again, he doesn't need to, because his congressional campaign has raised over $1 million dollars over the past two weeks. Check it out at:

www.RonPaulforCongress.com

Sincerely,

Mark Elam
Campaign Manager,
Committee to Reelect Ron Paul

Link to source http://blogs.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/02/14th_district_congressional_ca.html

[Agora]

How do I know this? Because I am Ron Paul's campaign manager and I have personally overseen 4 different political surveys in district 14 in recent weeks. All 4 surveys have shown the same results: Ron Paul has a high favorable rating and high marks on his job approval. And if the election were held today, 60+ percent of the GOP voters say they would vote to reelect Ron Paul, while only 18-20% chose Peden. The remaining 20% or so say they are undecided or refuse to give an answer to these scientific and statistically accurate surveys.


dunk )

[Nathan Hale]

I don't get it. If Paul's campaign manager has overseen these four polls, it's because the campaign commissioned the polls. If the polling was campaign-commissioned then there's likely a bias. After all, polling commissioned by a campaign often has a much greater bias than polling performed by a polling agency without commission.

Are the polls that Paul's campaign manager oversaw from the Paul campaign, or did Paul's campaign manager happen to get a ringside seat to unbiased polling?

[Dustancostine]

I don't get it. If Paul's campaign manager has overseen these four polls, it's because the campaign commissioned the polls. If the polling was campaign-commissioned then there's likely a bias. After all, polling commissioned by a campaign often has a much greater bias than polling performed by a polling agency without commission.

Are the polls that Paul's campaign manager oversaw from the Paul campaign, or did Paul's campaign manager happen to get a ringside seat to unbiased polling?

Polls are usually outsourced to polling companies (Gallup, etc...), so that they are accurate. Campaigns pay for these polls to see how they are standing in the race. There is no reason to conduct a biased poll because then you would be shooting yourself in the foot.

[Nathan Hale]

Polls are usually outsourced to polling companies (Gallup, etc...), so that they are accurate. Campaigns pay for these polls to see how they are standing in the race. There is no reason to conduct a biased poll because then you would be shooting yourself in the foot.

It's easy to insert bias without putting forth a poll that's considered biased. I've served on a legislature, and we once debated the wording of a poll we were going to host. It took us TWO HOURS to figure out the wording of the poll, because every single word in the poll had profound impact on the results of the poll. People who wanted the poll to turn out one way had their set of words, on the other side it was likewise. It's not about making the poll an obvious bias case, there are subtle ways to do a poll that's biased without it appearing biased.

That said, if the polling was subbed out that's fine and dandy. I'd like to see these polls if they're available. Does anybody have a link?

[P Campbell]

So, those of you who believe Peden's supposed lead in the polls should really place some bets on this one...BIG bets. And then when Peden, who is still virtually unknown to the voters and has almost no money in his campaign, (other than what he has loaned himself) loses the election and you lose a lot of money...then, maybe, reality might become a little more clear.

Heh. I figured the GOP establishment in those parts would have been slipping some money Peden's way, since I'm sure they're the ones who convinced him to run.