Does anyone else still think Hillary will win the Deomcratic nomination?

[terlinguatx]

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[Immortal Technique]

who cares none of the remaing candidates minus Paul are scum

[The One]

Yes, she will....even if it means Obama has to have an unfortunate accident.

[ChickenHawk]

Yes, she will....even if it means Obama has to have an unfortunate accident.

I have to agree with that. I can't imagine Hillary allowing him to win under any circumstances. I seriously fear for Obama if it becomes inevitable that he will win.

[haigh]

Presidential elections are often decided on personality appeal.
We had Reagan vs Carter, Reagan won.
We had Clinton vs Bush, Clinton won.
in both cases the more appealing of the personalities won.
It may be disgusting but thats the headset of the masses who show more interest in Spears than Iraq.
In an Obama vs Clinton campaign, Obama wins, personality appeal trumps again.

[FrankRep]

I think Obama will win the popular vote, but the establishment wants Hillary.

Many Republicans may suicide vote for Hillary to protest the McCain nomination.

[The One]

Presidential elections are often decided on personality appeal.
We had Reagan vs Carter, Reagan won.
We had Clinton vs Bush, Clinton won.
in both cases the more appealing of the personalities won.
It may be disgusting but thats the headset of the masses who show more interest in Spears than Iraq.
In an Obama vs Clinton campaign, Obama wins, personality appeal trumps again.


See above.

[ChickenHawk]

Presidential elections are often decided on personality appeal.
We had Reagan vs Carter, Reagan won.
We had Clinton vs Bush, Clinton won.
in both cases the more appealing of the personalities won.
It may be disgusting but thats the headset of the masses who show more interest in Spears than Iraq.
In an Obama vs Clinton campaign, Obama wins, personality appeal trumps again.

I think that is mostly true but in both cases you mention the incumbent president was not very popular. Also, negatives can trump personality if there are enough of them but since Hillary seems to have the monopoly in that department it's not a problem for Obama yet.

[Kludge]

If Hillary is elected, someone's going to have one hell of a good third party run. Bloomberg?

[klamath]

It is getting past the point where Hillary can pull dirty tricks and come out of it. Unless something comes out about Obama that totally stops him from this point on they are going to have to give him the nomination. If Hillary pulls off a super delegate win every black voter would vote for mcCain at that point. There are too many passionate Obama supporters to forgive that.

[terlinguatx]

[QUOTE

[klamath]

How can you say that? It's still neck and neck. When there are 4000 delegates, a 100 delegate lead for Obama means nothing when there's so much to come. The 24/hr media just needs something to talk about and hype to drive ratings.

But the preception of the obama supporters is that he is unstopable unless there are dirty tricks played. Hillary is already going to dirty campaign tactics. The Black population is not going to be happy if she wins it with supper delegates. The democrats will lose the black vote and rightfully so. If Obama hadn't of shown this much momentum they would have accepted VP but I don't think so now.

[Give me liberty]

She will win.


The elites want Hillary Vs McCain.

[abe447]

Obama pretty much has this thing wrapped up. The latest Texas polls have Obama down by only a few %. That's not good enough folks. She needs to win Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania at least 2-1 to have any shot. The majority of superdelegates are going to rally behind the candidate with the most delegates. It would be a political disaster for the Democrat superdelegates to overturn the vote of the people, so that isn't going to happen. If Hillary doesn't win by big enough margins in Texas and Ohio on March 4th, she's finished.

[klamath]

Obama pretty much has this thing wrapped up. The latest Texas polls have Obama down by only a few %. That's not good enough folks. She needs to win Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania at least 2-1 to have any shot. The majority of superdelegates are going to rally behind the candidate with the most delegates. It would be a political disaster for the Democrat superdelegates to overturn the vote of the people, so that isn't going to happen. If Hillary doesn't win by big enough margins in Texas and Ohio on March 4th, she's finished.

You are right. the way the Democrats select the delegates, she has to win really big in those states in order to overcome Obamas lead.

[rmholla]

I think that if Hillary does take the nomination due to the super delegates that THAT will be what fires up and mobilizes Democrats to want reform. Maybe that is what it will take for some of them to realize just how rigged the system is and that's good for us.

Bring on the Revolution.

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[abe447]

You are right. the way the Democrats select the delegates, she has to win really big in those states in order to overcome Obamas lead.

Exactly. All of the states are proportional. And looking at the remaining states, do you really see Hillary beating Obama in states like Mississippi, Wyoming, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota? 2 southeast states, 2 northwest states, and 1 upper midwest state, areas where Obama has dominated thus far. She has to win the big states like Ohio and Texas and win them big to have any hope plus win all of the other states left where her and Obama are probably close to even. It's basically over.

[The Tao Of Bill]

She will win.


The elites want Hillary Vs McCain.

You know I'm really wondering what the tin foil people are going to say if Obama really does win. It was just a few months ago that people were saying "The elites want Hillary vs Giuliani. But then that fell through and people were saying "The elites want Hillary vs Romney." then that fell through and now people are saying "The elites want Hillary Vs McCain."

I can picture what they will say if Obama wins "This is just the elites way of keeping us on our toes and making us think we have a choice"

Who are these elites and can they just make up their damn mind already?

[terlinguatx]

[QUOTE

[abe447]

But none of those state are winner take all are they? I think if Hillary ties it up or takes a slight lead after Texas/Ohio she has it in the bag. When you're playing for high stakes who cares what it takes to win. She'll gladly become leader of the world with the help of the super delegates. Throw Obama the VP position and silence the dem masses.

No, they're all proportional delegate. This favors the person in the lead, Obama. She's not going to be able to win those states from him no matter how much she wins Texas and Ohio by. This just increases the % she has to win by in every other state. Do you realize how much Hillary has to win by to take the actual delegate lead on March 4th?

There are 370 delegates at stake on March 4th. After Obama wins Hawaii, he'll be up by about 150 delegates. If she wins all 4 states on March 4th by 70%, she'll be tied with Obama. 70%! And that only gets her tied! It's not going to happen. They're basically tied in Texas polls. She should win Ohio, but she'll probably only win by 20% at the max. Vermont could go for Obama and Rhode Island is a tossup. Also, the superdelegates are not going to overturn the elected delegate count. That would be a political disaster that the Democrats can't afford going into the general election.

And the people who just come into say "The media elites want Hillary vs. McCain" are nutjobs. As Tao said, they were saying this about Giuliani and he tanked. If they wanted Hillary, they wouldn't have her losing badly to the inexperienced Obama in preparation for the general election. Frankly, I wish these people would just shutup.

[EvilEngineer]

You know I'm really wondering what the tin foil people are going to say if Obama really does win. It was just a few months ago that people were saying "The elites want Hillary vs Giuliani. But then that fell through and people were saying "The elites want Hillary vs Romney." then that fell through and now people are saying "The elites want Hillary Vs McCain."

I can picture what they will say if Obama wins "This is just the elites way of keeping us on our toes and making us think we have a choice"

Who are these elites and can they just make up their damn mind already?

The elites don't care one way or another... they stacked the deck to begin with, so regardless of who the masses pick (minus Ron Paul), they win.

[Channing]

I think the elites still prefer a Hillary victory and still have a few tricks up their sleeve.

For example, a scandal could emerge causing the superdelegates to vote for Hillary at the convention.

Even so, the elites could accomodate themselves with an Obama victory since he is pretty much in their hands and he doesn't propose any radical changes.

[terlinguatx]

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[abe447]

Hillary will demand that the florida delegates be seated along with michigan. She's not going to let her lifelong dream slip away.

She won't get it. If they do get seated, it'll be well after Obama is crowned. First of all, letting them have seats would set a terrible precedent for other states in the future. They'd just say, well Florida and Michigan got away with it and so can we. Secondly, they'd probably have to do a re-vote if anything as it would cause too much backlash if Obama was defeated because of a state no one was allowed to campaign in and a state that Obama's name didn't even appear on the ballot. They don't want a political disaster going into the general election that is tailor made for them to win. They'll ride the elected delegate leader, most likely Obama, into the general election.

[Banana]

They'd just say, well Florida and Michigan got away with it and so can we.

You realize you're describing Hillary & Bill to a T, right? ;)

[Truth Warrior]

Perhaps the puppetmaster elites have now changed their minds and think that the Dem sockpuppet Obama will be more useful in furthering the agenda. Anyone that criticizes Obama will just be smear labelled as a racist. Hey, it often works on critics of Israel.

[Dr.3D]

The elites don't care one way or another... they stacked the deck to begin with, so regardless of who the masses pick (minus Ron Paul), they win.

So true!

[wv@SC]

It doesn't matter. I know that's not the purpose of this thread (more just a guessing game).

Think about this - if you're a liberal Democrat and your candidate (say Hillary) doesn't make the nomination, you still have good candidates for Plan B (Obama) and Plan C (McCain). Why don't we conservatives ever have situations like that?

[terlinguatx]

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