Interesting Article - McCain getting the 1191 not likely any time soon

[parocks]

http://www.redstate.com/blogs/adamsweb/2008/feb/14/figuring_out_the_huckamath

[The_Ruffneck]

Great article , i have noticed interest waning a little lately (citing fundraising as the major example) - if MSM reports that we'll be going to the brokered convention then that will definately reignite interest in the campaign!

[Banana]

All the more reasons to get our butts off the chair and apply for delegates.

Fill the ranks, even bound to others, Paul wins.

Simple as that.

[brandon]

BAD ARTICLE.

It has completely wrong information on pennsylvania, so I suspect alot of the other info is wrong as well.

"Pennsylvania on April 22 would be a nice opportunity for Huckabee to reach out to blue collar workers as well as broaden his appeal among Catholics. Unlike Michigan, which was a week after New Hampshire, Huckabee will have some time. McCain, though, would have organizational advantages, with party establishment backing. In the end, it doesn’t matter. The primary’s a beauty contest and the winner takes home nothing but bragging rights. The delegates are chosen at the State Convention and are unpledged."

Nope sorry, that is not at all how our delegates are chosen.

[IDefendThePlatform]

How are we doing on getting delegates in Pennsylvania? Anyone know? If they are unpledged thats a big opportunity.

[parocks]

BAD ARTICLE.

It has completely wrong information on pennsylvania, so I suspect alot of the other info is wrong as well.

"Pennsylvania on April 22 would be a nice opportunity for Huckabee to reach out to blue collar workers as well as broaden his appeal among Catholics. Unlike Michigan, which was a week after New Hampshire, Huckabee will have some time. McCain, though, would have organizational advantages, with party establishment backing. In the end, it doesn’t matter. The primary’s a beauty contest and the winner takes home nothing but bragging rights. The delegates are chosen at the State Convention and are unpledged."

Nope sorry, that is not at all how our delegates are chosen.

Cool, I've heard that McCain had it wrapped up, that he'd get the 1191 even if he didn't win another primary.

The scenario presented here seemed very optimistic.

Thanks for the good analysis.

[losinglife]

Cool, I've heard that McCain had it wrapped up, that he'd get the 1191 even if he didn't win another primary.

The scenario presented here seemed very optimistic.

Thanks for the good analysis.

i wouldnt say that. RP is doing pretty well around here, and not to many people want mccain, or are even going to vote in the primaries. Not to mention for every republican there are 10000000 democrats hahah

[Jeremy]

That same website had an anti-Paul article that asked for people to donate to Peden <.<

[CurtisLow]

That same website had an anti-Paul article that asked for people to donate to Peden <.<

:mad:

[JordanQ72]

To begin with


So a candidate needs 1191 Pledged Delegates going into the convention to win the convention.

Is outright false. That is working with the assumption that every single unpledged delegate will not vote for McCain. For example, by tradition, the 3 'unpledged' RNC delegates on a state by state basis simply vote which ever way their state voted. Then you have states like Ohio, where delegates aren't bound, but they're picked by the candidate who wins, so you're really out there if you think those won't be voting for the person who picked them. Yet, I assume in calculations people are doing they're just putting them in the 'unbound' category without thinking.

Then there's the issue of just making up scenarios with no plausible reasoning. I can concoct scenarios in which Huckabee could get a brokered convention even if McCain had 1190 delegates, but that's about as likely as the sun imploding into a black hole. I have no idea why they think Huckabee will do well in Ohio, let alone thinking he'll win...

McCain will pick up Ohio, and it'll be a closer race in Texas, but that's also going to McCain. There's even a slim chance he might break over the 50% requirement to lockout others from delegates.